水文预报课程设计.doc

水文预报课程设计 姓 名： 学 号： 学 院：水利与环境学院 班 级：指导老师： 时 间：2013.1.23水文预报课程设计说明书1、设计目的1、流域水文模型的用途：洪水预报方案是现代实时洪水预报调度系统的核心部分，是提高预报精度和增长预见期的关键技术。对水资源可持续利用：流域水文模型是水资源评价、开发、利用和管理的理论基础。对水环境和生态系统保护：流域水文模型是构建面污染模型和生态评价模型的主要平台。流域水文模型还是分析研究气候变化和人类活动对洪水、水资源和水环境影响的有效工具。本次课程设计的目的是通过一个具体的降雨径流预报方案的制作，使学生了解生产单位对预报任务的要求。2、通过课程设计，要求掌握如下内容：1) 流域综合退水曲线、地下水退水曲线的制作以及次洪分割方法；2) 熟悉降雨径流相关图编制的完整过程；3) 新安江两水源模型结构及产流参数率定方法；4) 流域经验单位线的推求方法；5) 洪水预报方案精度评定方法；6) 利用预报方案进行实行洪水预报方法；7) 利用马斯京根分段连续演算法进行长河段洪水演进预报。2、设计基本资料该流域集水面积1884.6km2，干流河长约273km。流域气候温湿，年降雨量在1700毫左右。地下水位较高，且随季节变幅小，因次，一般情况下，土壤含水量较大。根据流域自然地理条件情况和气候条件，以及洪水流量过程线分析，可知流域产流规律符合湿润地区的蓄满产流模型特征。采用降雨径流相关图制作流域蓄满产流方案，用二层蒸发模型计算蒸发，水源划分考虑两水源划分。3、课程设计资料1. 一场历史洪水的流量过程，相应的各雨量站（3个雨量站）时段雨量与权重（时段长为3h）2. 洪水的前期日降雨量，日最大蒸发量资料（历史洪水与实时预报洪水）3. XX场洪水的退税过程4. 部分场次洪水降雨、径流特征值成果表5. 干流河段的马斯京根参数及分段数（3段）4、产流计算4.1 面平均雨量计算4.11 计算方法泰森多边形法(1)其中为i站的面积权重，为i站的实测降雨4.12 各测站基本资料如表1、表2所示表1 各测站降雨量 单位:mmA站降雨B站降雨C站降雨18.181818188.51063829812.9032258190.9090909142.5531914964.51612903168.181818278.72340426119.354838745.4545454521.2765957432.2580645236.3636363617.021276625.80645161表2 各测站权重A站权重B站权重C站权重0.220.470.314.13 计算步骤将表1、表2中数据代入公式(1)中并使其结果除以3即得面平均降雨量如表3所示表3 面平均雨量 单位:mm流域面雨量4.0020.0037.0010.008.00再由实测洪水过程可画出流量过程线如图1图1 实测洪水流量过程线4.2 次洪分割4.21 计算流域平均消退系数Cgg由最小二乘法公式 (2)算得Cg=0.837(从流量开始消退时算起)同理可算得地下水消退系数Cgg=0.746(从退水开始算起)4.22 划分水源由地下水退水过程线不变的规律，结合实测洪水过程(无后续洪水)和实测洪水过程可画出图2图2 分割复式洪水再由洪峰(如此题中的683.91)与Cg的乘积的递推，算出一系列的Q值，用径流深计算公式可累加出一系列的R值，即得蓄泻关系曲线，如图3图3 蓄泻关系曲线用图3可查出此场洪水对应的值，则由公式 (2)算得再算得 另附以下几张图表表4 地面与地下流量过程 单位:mmQQgQs1.75711.757101.95184.23320.857217.35716.709410.6477117.00039.1856107.8146361.847311.6612350.1856620.159514.1379606.0216683.912416.6140667.2984666.279219.0902647.1887558.234321.5663536.6681430.399124.0425406.3565315.250426.5187288.7317235.767328.9948206.7724168.251531.4710136.7805112.756833.947178.809662.117136.423325.693838.899438.89940图5 流域平均退水曲线图6 地下水退水曲线表5 蓄泻关系曲线表 单位:m3/sQR0.000688910.000002360.000722620.000007210.000757980.000012290.000795080.000017620.000833990.000023210.00087480.000029070.000917620.000035220.000962520.000041680.001009630.00004844图7 相邻时段流量关系图4.3 流域初始土壤蓄水量的计算4.31 前期影响雨量Pa的计算 (3) (4)4.32 计算实例已知资料见表6表6 Pa基本数据 单位:mm日降雨量Pa蒸发能力WMPa,t+11.4609.78053.95525047.413185.946.848951.942.838140.738.259144.4 降雨径流相关图制作及误差检验4.41 计算原理：（1）流域蓄满产流模型计算公式 (5)(6)（2）蒸发计算（两层蒸发模式） (7)(8)表7 降雨径流相关表 单位:mmW0010203038.2591440506063.17080P a010.163820.69567731.674741.1599843.2165655.50625868.87981773.342584.11941106.400000-7.1E-15-7.1E-1500-7.1E-157.11E-1502.78750.012120.103810.20606710.322230.432390.4577020.62213490.8359370.9190621.1589142.7875100.158460.495780.8730911.303471.7136951.8082882.42648653.24322833.5664124.5281311015.750.398260.940891.5495262.246352.9136843.0680824.08308145.44648165.9967617.70498715.75200.648621.349052.13641353.040643.9100634.1117975.4449117.2638028.01305210.482462021.5750.757641.517962.37338513.356974.3042244.5242755.98158077.98347738.81600811.6763521.575301.49582.590713.82905445.263536.6590536.9856889.180772212.3585313.812522030402.730814.259366.00164378.0433710.0633510.5425213.861032023.13040504.392116.404898.723036711.485214.2934614.9761820.1387943033.1405052.54.879547.023189.499904412.46715.5139616.2622122.532.535.642.552.557.36255.916068.3277811.13416914.539718.1303819.0401427.362537.362540.462547.362557.3625606.529359.0949312.09388515.764819.7178620.75181304043.1506066.158.1081811.060314.55640918.958624.4091426.1536.1546.1549.2556.1566.15709.2097812.427916.28005121.271328.2591430405053.1607072.937510.113413.549817.70562723.286531.1966432.937542.937552.937556.037562.937572.937581.2512.998217.15122.42526931.2539.5091441.2551.2561.2564.3571.2581.258012.531116.564521.6330863038.2591440506063.170809016.652721.8387304048.2591450607073.1809010021.903230405058.2591460708083.190100110.000 30.000 40.000 50.000 60.000 68.259 70.000 80.000 90.000 93.100 100.000 110.000 120.000 40.000 50.000 60.000 70.000 78.259 80.000 90.000 100.000 103.100 110.000 120130.000 50.000 60.000 70.000 80.000 88.259 90.000 100.000 110.000 113.100 120.000 130.000 140.000 60.000 70.000 80.000 90.000 98.259 100.000 110.000 120.000 123.100 130.000 140.000 图8 降雨径流相关图4.4.2 误差检验用其他场次PER关系查降雨径流相关图，校核是否合格并算出合格率与等级，见表8表8 径流深校核 单位：mmPa有效降雨PE次洪径流深演算径流深许可误差实际误差合格否合格率等级15.245.710.369738246.45286893433.916869311否0.88甲级48.858.229.95190859275.9903817192.951908594是43.925.22.4062514166.1604104853-3.75415907否4681.546.9607386347.59.392147726-0.53926137是40.1113.371.1697806671.5591429514.23395613-0.3893623是45.36631.9997257731.36.3999451530.699725765是35.764.727.5650327120.701118335.5130065426.863914379否1071.910.5153988413.145397783-2.62999893是29.876.231.84636564266.3692731295.846365644是44.4114.277.2041834578.615.44083669-1.39581655是44.981.944.844248446.88.96884968-1.9557516是5165.938.7288917736.97.7457783531.828891765是80101.7103.827372101.7202.127372048是10.737.64.7629569973.92356886230.839388135是52.4100.568.4976318472.913.69952637-4.40236816是42.774.735.3260480737.47.065209614-2.07395193是39.6150106.9960346109.620-2.60396537是27.860.513.5689830515.106506262.71379661-1.53752321是3894.950.5537405352.910.11074811-2.34625947是52.485.158.7773674857.511.75547351.277367482是47.946.719.7176971316.683075653.9435394273.034621487是11.5109.440.147997940.98.029599579-0.7520021是56.4104.57958512.91687690631.662708194是44.718.96.6571116344.38046924632.276642387是5、汇流计算5.1、fc的试算5.1.1试算方法 (9) (10)5.1.2 试算实例(1) 基本数据如表9表9 单位:mm 流域面雨(mm)EpPE累计PE累积净雨量R时段净雨量riri/PE4.001.21252.792.790.43240.43240.1551174120.001.212518.7921.584.30423.87180.2060856437.001.212535.7957.3618.130413.82620.3863404710.001.21258.7966.1524.40916.27880.714510338.001.21256.7972.9431.19666.78751再假设，则有故划分时段净雨如表10所示表10 划分地面及地下净流深 单位:mmRgRs0.30 0.13 0.40 3.47 0.76 13.07 1.40 4.88 1.96 4.83 5.2 计算单位线(试错法)5.2.1 演算实例如表11所示表11 科林法试算表 单位:m3/s时段时段净雨ri(mm)实测地面径流量Qs(m3/s)0.133.474.884.83各部分之和均值13.07试算的UH(mm)假定的UH(mm)平均的UH(mm)调整的UH(mm)(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)00.1300.000.000.000.0000.00013.470.8570.450.000.450.220.630.4735.0017.7335.158213.0710.6482.1712.1414.317.383.272.41169.0085.70169.86734.88107.8154.0258.610.0062.6438.4769.3451.10313.00182.05270.7644.83350.1863.45108.5517.080.00129.0895.86254.33187.42268.00227.71240.2975606.0222.9292.9582.4616.90195.22162.15443.87327.10227.00277.05227.1666667.2982.4478.73152.7281.61315.50255.36411.94303.57190.00246.78185.9117647.1891.7065.90130.76151.14349.50332.50314.69231.90132.00181.95132.8238536.6681.0545.78110.76129.41287.00318.25218.42160.9682.00121.4882.0749406.3570.8628.4492.71109.61231.62259.31147.05108.3667.0087.6867.72710288.7320.0023.2464.4191.75179.39205.5083.2361.330.0030.6744.74911206.7720.000.0040.0163.74103.75141.5765.2048.050.0024.02012136.7810.0032.6939.6072.2988.0248.7635.9317.971378.8100.0032.3532.3552.3226.4919.529.761425.6940.000.000.0016.189.527.013.511500.000.000.000.000.000.00再用调整的单位线计算地面流量，比较预测与实际值间的误差大小。5.2.2 用计算出的单位线推出地面流量如表12所示表12 用计算出的单位线推出地面流量 净雨量ri(mm)调整后单位线UH(mm)0.1285543.46816513.069424.8792174.828756Qs(m3/s)总径流Q(m3/s)0.12855400003.46816535.1580.451972035.6099735.6099713.06942169.8672.18371612.193370184.2441184.24414.879217270.763.48074158.9126845.949460379.1029Qg10379.10294.828756240.2973.08912693.90404222.006317.154350576.4508Qg211.23017587.681227.1662.92032183.33896353.867582.8817916.97694767.1516Qg323.30145790.453185.9112.38996978.78492314.0542132.109782.02463795.2744Qg445.36054840.6349132.8231.70749964.477296.8927117.2461130.7434743.8897Qg585.58246829.472282.0741.05509846.06521242.9748110.8392116.0336599.0419Qg6136.2697735.311667.7270.87066128.46462173.591990.71001109.6929471.0571Qg7101.7006572.757744.7490.57526823.48884107.265964.8072289.77189330.6582Qg875.90103406.55920015.5196988.5152440.0456864.13699208.2176Qg956.64635264.864058.4843433.0454739.63153131.1613Qg1042.27622173.4376021.8340132.7037254.53772Qg1131.5515386.08925021.608221.6082Qg1223.5474945.1556900Qg1317.5739317.57393Qg1413.1157513.11575Qg159.7885279.788527Qg167.3053597.305359Qg175.4521255.452125Qg184.0690224.069022Qg193.0367873.036787Qg202.266412.26641两者拟合曲线图9所示图9 预报与实测径流拟合情况从上图可以看出两条流量过程线形状大致相同，峰现时间也一致，虽然峰值差距较大，但并不影响整体洪水预报，故此单位线还算吻合。5.3 实时洪水预报5.3.1 基本数据表13表13 基本数据Pa时段1雨量(mm)时段2雨量(mm)时段3雨量(mm)蒸发能力(mm/h)马斯京根k马斯京根x63.1163729290.45用降雨径流相关图可得表14表15 时段净雨的计算 单位:mm 时段雨量ri(mm)EpPE累积PE累积R时段净雨riri/PE160.2515.7515.755.9967607695.996760770.380747370.2536.7552.535.629.60323920.80553290.2528.7581.2564.3528.751再根据前面所求的分割时段净雨，得表15表15 划分地面地下径流 单位:mmRgRs0.7458835.2508779531.57803428.025205341.95926.7915.3.2 地面径流量预报得表16表16 计算地面径流量净雨(mm)修正后单位线qi(m3/s)5.2509mm的径流量(m3/s)28.0252mm的径流量(m3/s)26.791mm的径流量(m3/s)地面径流量(m3/s)5.250900028.025235.15818.461018.46126.7910169.86789.19598.5310187.726270.76142.173476.05694.192712.420240.297126.177758.810455.0911340.078227.166119.282673.437725.3931518.112185.91197.620636.637643.7801378.037132.82369.744521.019608.6001199.36482.07443.096372.239498.074913.40967.72735.563230.014355.846621.42344.74923.497189.806219.884433.18800.000125.410181.447306.8570119.887119.887005.3.3 计算地下径流量由地下径流量计算公式 (11)其中 (12)得出地下径流演算表如表17表17 地下径流演算表 单位:m3/s地下径流量Qg1=0Qg2=27.569Qg3=78.901Qg4=131.293Qg5=97.986Qg6=73.129Qg7=54.578Qg8=40.732Qg9=30.399Qg10=22.688Qg11=16.932Qg12=12.637Qg13=9.431Qg14=7.039Qg15=5.253Qg16=3.920Qg17=2.926Qg18=2.184再累积地面与地下径流量得断面径流量见表18(注意地下径流量较地面径流量滞后4个时段)表18 断面径流量计算表 单位:m3/s总径流(上断面)Qt018.46103671187.7261055712.42032471340.0781611545.681351456.9381451330.6565531011.395796694.5518557487.7654933347.5896561150.286286522.6875172916.9321150812.636751639.4310421967.0385617675.2530092353.9204182532.9258808792.1836391841.6296904371.2162682090.907723535.4 应用马斯京根法进行河道洪水演算5.4.1 基本资料表19表19 k，x值马斯京根k马斯京根x90.45由公式 (13)得出，查表知其河段汇流系数表，见表20表20 河段汇流系数表汇流系数Pm0.0020.0390.2290.4910.1810.0460.0100.0025.4.2 河道演算实例由上表可根据马斯京根法演算下断面河道流量，见表21表21 马斯京根法推流下段面流量 单位:m3/s总径流(上断面)Qt汇流系数PmQ1Q2Q3Q4Q5Q6Q700.002018.461036710.03900.036922187.72610550.22900.719980.375452712.42032470.49104.2275777.3213181.4248411340.0781610.18109.06436942.9892827.784392.6801561545.681350.04603.34144892.17352163.144352.263053.0913631456.9381450.01000.84920833.97843349.7984306.877960.281572.9138761330.6565530.00200.184618.635401128.9481657.9784353.96156.820591011.3957960.0369221.87726132.77133242.5541758.9295333.6388694.55185570.3754527.12420361.6436279.7683715.3566487.76549331.42484113.4007871.10134263.7058347.58965612.68015615.4568167.01915150.28628653.09136314.5693822.687517292.91387616.9321150812.636751639.4310421967.0385617675.2530092353.9204182532.9258808792.1836391841.6296904371.2162682090.907723530.6774509120.505594184Q8Q9Q10Q11Q12Q13Q14Q15Q162.66131351.895612.022792304.720439.444441.389104653.3524231.609627.087520.975531240.8488496.5953159.052419.022850.69517961.2102183.0626341.025111.698313.5560.30057313.3065746.52421125.7139239.492979.598035.8611650.0453752.66131310.1139631.9493988.28555170.666534.415560.8848130.0338642.0227926.94551922.4372162.9137373.790575.1954410.6603520.0252741.3891044.87765515.9891227.2018211.139573.8774540.4928330.9755313.4758976.9131694.1064418.3136692.8938160.6951791.5028631.0436263.0647136.2046450.3005730.2268750.7788772.2872520.0453750.1693210.5812910.0338640.1263680.025274Q17Q18Q19Q20总径流(下段面)Qt00.0369220731.09543264312.9737361782.51819616314.0136308754.69936011209.1893971423.726441409.8220951262.6578271001.370705728.513413513.455963339.0109689173.99088470.01886264.986421430.3678110.01407727.060409762.1597090.2745040.01050614.955744444.6306421.6118310.2048670.00784110.048757641.7070193.4559341.2029390.1528967.3147746520.4338281.273982.5792280.8977765.3450426820.094310.3237740.9507951.9249253.31907780.0188620.0703860.2416380.7095961.0404818310.0140770.052530.1803390.2469464560.0105060.0392040.0497102010.0078410.0078408375.4.3 校核预报及误差评定首先拟合实际流量与模拟流量，如图10图10 实际流量与模拟流量的拟合由水文情报预报规范统计洪峰流量、洪水总量、峰现时间是否合格。其中，洪峰预报许可误差以实测洪峰流量的20作为许可误差。峰现时间及洪峰滞时允许误差应小于涨洪历时的30，并以三小时或一个计算时段为下限。如表22及23所示。表22 洪峰流量评定 单位：m3/s实测洪峰流量Q1洪峰预报流量Q2许可误差实际误差是否合格1367.6831411423.72644273.536628356.0433是表23 峰现时间评定 实测峰现时间(时段数)演算峰现时间(时段数)洪水滞后(时段数)允许误差是否合格8912.1是作出相应的时段降雨与模拟降雨图，见图11图11 时段降雨与模拟净雨相关图6、课程设计的总结与心得做到这里，课程设计也快结束了。虽然从开始做到现在结束只用4天，但真的感觉像用了4年。由于之前觉得很简单，会很快的搞定，就一直拖着没做。直到做的时候方才觉得要考虑的东西挺多，又着急回去，心情很烦躁，时间又紧，就通宵地做，大概这四天总共休息时间不超过20小时，所有的一切都是自己一个字一个字敲上去的，在其中遇到了许多麻烦，比如某个地方想不起来思路或排版有问题，这时候就体现团体合作精神了。有的地方反反复复的修改，还是感觉不行，那种滋味真的很难受。其实个人觉得此次课程设计不仅仅涉及水文预报等专业知识，还能反应出一个人的心性，那种对待困难的做法，对待某些问题的特殊见解。总之一句，此次课程设计让我体会到了过程的艰辛，当然，最重要的还是从中学到了许多知识。