全球经济展望(Warren Hogan)

Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,*,*,Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,*,全球经济展望,发表于：中国商业银行黄金,成都,会议,Warren Hogan,澳新银行首席经济学家,2010,年,8,月,全球经济展望,下行风险增加,全球经济放缓，,市场正预期,全球经济,双底,经济衰退和通货紧缩,“再库存”的结束与财政刺激政策退出一直是导致下半年全球经济增长放缓的主要因素。全球经济下行的风险不断增加,由于需求疲软以及产出缺口仍然巨大，发达经济体面临着通货紧缩的风险,欧洲主权债务危机已经避免，但信贷状况仍然紧张，欧洲各国政府再融资计划将面临进一步的挑战,发达经济体的的基准利率将长时间停留在较低水平,我们认为美国不会重复日本,1990,年代的道路,与日本当年的情况相比，美国的企业盈利保持乐观，银行体系的重建也较为及时,资本开支将推动美国经济复苏,我们并不是“双底衰退”的拥护者。但是，,直到,2012,年，,全球经济增长将继续低迷，区域经济的发展情况也将出现分化,发达经济体的经济增长将受到持续的财政紧缩和家庭去杠杆化限制,受到国内政策和持续工业化的支持，新兴经济体仍将保持较快增速,中国已经回到更具“可持续性”的发展道路,由于宏观紧缩措施，中国,GDP,同比增长从第一季度的,11.9%,放缓至第二季度的,10.3%,我们预测2011年,中国,GDP,增速将达到,10.1%,。下半年基建投资仍将保持,稳健，但,2011,年以后基建增速将放缓,房地产市场降温将减少中国的钢材需求，澳大利亚大宗商品价格也将随之降温,中国经济继续面临三大风险：高于预期的通货膨胀，房地产市场低迷与紧张的贸易关系,2,全球股市再次下滑,“,双底,衰退,”,恐惧抵消了欧洲银行业压力测试结果与美国公司盈利的正面效应,Sources:Bloomberg,全球股市,3,利率持续走低,表,明全球经济增长仍将在较长时间内保持弱势，债券市场走势意味着,货币政策仍将保持宽松,Sources:Bloomberg,美国和澳大利亚的,10,年期债券收益率,4,尽管,近期降温，全球经济增长前景,仍,乐观,新兴经济体将成为主要的增长引擎,国内生产总值,全球贸易,采购经理指数,Sources:Bloomberg,Consensus Economics,IMF,工业生产,5,发达经济体通货紧缩的担忧上升,通货膨胀率正在下降，产出缺口依然较大,七国集团通货膨胀,发达经济体核心通胀,失业率,产出缺口,Sources:Bloomberg,Consensus Economics,IMF,OECD,6,美国经济向下,采购者经理指数已转头向下，就业数据疲弱，消费者仍保持谨慎,就业和失业率,国内生产总值及,ISM,制造业指数,储蓄率,Sources:Bloomberg,国内生产总值,-,组成,7,资本支出将推动美国经济增长，但房地产市场仍是美国经济面临的风险因素之一,公司盈利,耐用品订单（除去国防和交通订单,),房屋价格和存量,房屋开工量,Sources:Bloomberg,8,美国,10,年期国债收益率保持长期下行趋势,如果,10,年美债收益率能回到,4.2%,上方，那么可能意味着一定程度的反转。但我们不能排除其可能会降至,2%,以下,Source:,ANZ&Bloomberg,美国,10,年期国债收益率,9,美元仍将保持长期弱势，尽管近期美元指数在一定区间内维持着震荡走势,“双底衰退”忧虑困扰着美元，更大规模的量化宽松政策可能带来的风险偏好上升也使美元走势偏弱,Sources:Bloomberg,美元指数,10,欧洲经济将落后于全球表现，当然，各区域间的表现将出现分化,高失业率和财政紧缩将困扰宏观经济,GDP,分类,各区域经济表现,失业率,消费者信心和零售表现,Sources:Bloomberg,11,财政可持续性成为成长前景的绊脚石,经常项目平衡（占,GDP,比重）,公共债务预测（占,GDP,比重）至,2011,年,6,月,公共债务（占,GDP,比重）,国债收益率（相对于德国国债收益率）,Sources:Bloomberg,IMF and OECD,12,公共债务成为很多欧洲国家的梦魇,在未来很多年内，公共债务都将成为很多欧洲国家面临的重要政策难题,Sources:,OECD,财政与债务状况,13,Sources:Bloomberg and ANZ,在五六月的弱势表现之后，欧元开始强劲反弹,欧元权重在美元指数中约为,60%,欧猪,5,国信用违约掉期价格,欧元汇率,14,中国经济回到更具可持续性的发展道路上,GDP,减速，但总体表现良好,由旺盛的国内需求带动,货币政策开始收紧,过热风险降低,Sources:Bloomberg and ANZ,15,中国工业产出已经回到金融危机前的水平,Sources:Bloomberg,工业增加值,工业表现,工业销售,工业企业利润,16,中国电力消费反弹，表明中国经济“硬着陆”的可能性较低,请注意,2010,年的生产周期与,2009,年经济下滑时的电力消费的区别,Sources:Bloomberg,中国电力消费,17,工业金属在较长时间内将保持升势,实际铜价,Sources:Bloomberg;ANZ.,18,在牛市周期中，大宗商品价格更具波动性,对于依赖大宗商品的经济体来说，商品价格的过度波动将成为一个重要的风险因素,Sources:ABS,Bloomberg and ANZ,19,澳大利亚的大宗商品供应量将在未来几年出现井喷,澳洲最新大宗商品投资项目,澳洲金属和能源新建项目,Advanced minerals and energy development projects,Source:,ABARE,20,我们的预测,Source:IMF,ABS and ANZ,21,利率预测,Source:ANZ,22,汇率预测,Source:ANZ,23,大宗商品价格预测,Source:ANZ,24,Disclaimer,免责声明,This document(“document”)is distributed to you in Australia and the United Kingdom by Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited ABN 11 005 357 522(“ANZ”)and in New Zealand by ANZ National Bank Limited(“ANZ NZ”).ANZ holds an Australian Financial Services licence no.234527 and is authorised in the UK and regulated by the Financial Services Authority(“FSA”).,This document is being distributed in the United States by ANZ Securities,Inc.(“ANZ S”)(an affiliated company of ANZ),which accepts responsibility for its content.Further information on any securities referred to herein may be obtained from ANZ S upon request.Any US person(s)receiving this document and wishing to effect transactions in any securities referred to herein should contact ANZ S,not its affiliates.,This document is being distributed in the United Kingdom by ANZ solely for the information of its eligible counterparties and professional clients(as defined by the FSA).It is not intended for and must not be distributed to any person who would come within the FSA definition of“retail clients”.Nothing here excludes or restricts any duty or liability to a customer which ANZ may have under the UK Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 or under the regulatory system as defined in the Rules of the FSA.,This document is issued on the basis that it is only for the information of the particular person to whom it is provided.This document may not be reproduced,distributed or published by any recipient for any purpose.This document does not take into account your personal needs and financial circumstances.Under no circumstances is this document to be used or considered as an offer to sell,or a solicitation of an offer to buy.,In addition,from time to time ANZ,ANZ NZ,ANZ S,their affiliated companies,or their respective associates and employees may have an interest in any financial products(as defined by the Australian Corporations Act 2001),securities or other investments,directly or indirectly the subject of this document(and may receive commissions or other remuneration in relation to the sale of such financial products,securities or other investments),or may perform services for,or solicit business from,any company the subject of this document.If you have been referred to ANZ,ANZ NZ,ANZ S or their affiliated companies by