国际市场发展趋势与国内市场状况

Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,*,*,单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,*,单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,二级,三级,四级,五级,*,*,国内衍生产品市场的发展和问题探讨,中国银行间市场交易商协会,北京,上海银监局,张光平,2010年6月3日,内容概要,一、国际市场发展趋势及启示,二、国内市场的状况,三、国内外市场比较四、国内人民币衍生产品市场存在的问题及活跃市场的可能方法五、人民币国际化趋势下的发展,六、国内衍生产品市场发展的几点思考,四海震荡稍稳，债股黑金白银。,杠杆缩减成势，基本功能长存。,从90年代中后期以来银行间已经少有很新的产品出现了！然而场内期货和期权市场却保持了较为稳步的发展,风险对冲的基本功能没有出现变化。,一、国际金融产品发展趋势,全球期货成交金额及其增长率 单位:万亿美元($),年,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,总成交金额,283.1,278.3,270.3,294.5,317.8,289.0,318.0,446.0,年增长率,51.2%,-1.7%,-2.9%,9.0%,7.9%,-9.1%,10.0%,40.2%,利率期货成交金额,270.4,264.6,254.8,275.7,296.3,265.0,292.2,420.9,年增长率,52.4%,-2.1%,-3.7%,8.2%,7.5%,-10.6%,10.3%,44.1%,外汇期货成交金额,3.2,3.2,2.7,2.7,2.5,2.6,2.4,2.5,年增长率,14.5%,-0.3%,-17.3%,3.2%,-7.1%,1.7%,-6.5%,3.4%,股指期货成交金额,9.5,10.5,12.8,16.1,18.9,21.4,23.4,22.6,年增长率,34.1%,10.5%,22.2%,26.1%,17.4%,12.9%,9.3%,-3.6%,年,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,总成交金额,501.9,625.1,831.8,1005.8,1262.9,1587.4,1567.6,1127.9,年增长率,12.5%,24.6%,33.1%,20.9%,25.6%,25.7%,-1.2%,-28.0%,利率期货成交金额,472.8,588.7,783.1,939.6,1169.3,1433.7,1406.0,1016.5,年增长率,12.3%,24.5%,33.0%,20.0%,24.5%,22.6%,-1.9%,-27.7%,外汇期货成交金额,2.5,3.9,6.61,11.13,15.28,21.1,24.9,24.2,年增长率,0.6%,56.7%,68.0%,68.2%,37.3%,38.2%,18.1%,-2.9%,股指期货成交金额,26.5,32.4,42.0,55.1,78.3,132.6,136.7,87.2,年增长率,17.5%,22.4%,29.5%,31.0%,42.1%,69.5%,3.1%,-36.2%,全球期权(交易所)成交金额及其增长率单位:万亿美元($),年,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,总成交金额,55.9,53.4,52.4,61.9,70.5,62.2,66.4,148.4,年增长率,38.3%,-4.5%,-1.9%,18.2%,13.8%,-11.8%,6.7%,123.6%,利率期权成交金额,46.4,43.0,41.1,48.7,55.6,45.8,47.4,122.8,年增长率,41.6%,-7.3%,-4.5%,18.5%,14.2%,-17.7%,3.4%,159.1%,外汇期权成交金额,1.4,1.3,1.3,0.9,0.5,0.3,0.2,0.4,年增长率,-2.6%,-4.8%,-2.5%,-31.6%,-38.5%,-46.9%,-26.6%,68.1%,股指期权成交金额,8.1,9.1,10.0,12.3,14.3,16.1,18.8,25.2,年增长率,30.2%,11.9%,10.3%,23.4%,15.6%,12.6%,16.9%,34.5%,年,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,总成交金额,191.3,249.2,312.1,402.6,546.4,702.0,675.1,534.8,年增长率,28.9%,30.2%,25.25%,29.0%,35.7%,28.5%,-3.8%,-20.8%,利率期权成交金额,154.5,205.4,260.1,328.8,446.1,547.6,535.2,434.7,年增长率,25.9%,32.9%,26.6%,26.4%,35.7%,22.8%,-2.3%,-18.8%,外汇期权成交金额,0.4,0.5,0.6,0.9,1.12,2.1,2.8,2.0,年增长率,18.7%,16.5%,19.6%,61.0%,17.7%,91.7%,30.9%,-29.3%,股指期权成交金额,36.4,43.3,51.4,72.9,99.2,152.3,137.1,98.1,年增长率,44.1%,19.0%,18.8%,41.7%,36.1%,53.5%,-10.0%,-28.4%,全球期货和交易所期权成交金额及其增长率单位:万亿美元($),年,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,总成交金额,339.0,331.7,322.7,356.5,388.2,351.2,384.4,594.4,年增长率,48.9%,-2.1%,-2.7%,10.5%,8.9%,-9.5%,9.5%,54.6%,国内生产总值,29.1,29.1,29.9,29.7,29.5,30.6,31.4,31.0,总成交金额/国内生产总值,11.6,11.4,10.8,12.0,13.2,11.5,12.2,19.2,年增长率,34.6%,31.7%,-5.3%,11.2%,9.6%,-12.8%,6.7%,56.6%,年,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,总成交金额,693.2,874.3,1143.9,1408.4,1809.3,2289.4,2242.7,1662.7,年增长率,16.6%,26.1%,30.8%,23.1%,28.5%,26.5%,-2.0%,-25.9%,国内生产总值,32.1,35.1,40.9,44.4,48.2,54.3,60.1,57.9,总成交金额/国内生产总值,21.6,24.9,28.0,31.7,37.5,42.1,37.3,28.7,年增长率,12.6%,15.3%,12.3%,13.3%,18.3%,12.3%,-11.4%,-23.1%,全球期货成交金额及其季度同比变化率 单位:万亿美元($),季度,2008Q1,2008Q2,2008Q3,2008Q4,2009Q1,2009Q2,2009Q3,2009Q4,总成交金额,486.4,429.8,388.8,262.6,241.7,287.5,291.4,307.3,同比变化率,28.3%,14.8%,-15.1%,-30.2%,-50.3%,-33.1%,-25.0%,17.0%,利率期货成交金额,441.9,390.8,345.0,228.3,217.9,260.9,261.5,276.2,同比变化率,27.6%,15.1%,-16.6%,-31.7%,-50.7%,-33.2%,-24.2%,21.0%,外汇期货成交金额,5.9,6.7,7.2,5.1,4.4,5.5,6.7,7.7,同比变化率,7.5%,42.5%,28.6%,-3.8%,-25.6%,-18.4%,-7.5%,49.8%,股指期货成交金额,38.6,32.3,36.6,29.2,19.4,21.1,23.2,23.4,同比变化率,41.2%,6.7%,-5.0%,-20.0%,-49.8%,-34.6%,-36.5%,-19.7%,全球期权(交易所)季度成交金额及其变化率单位:万亿美元($),季度,2008Q1,2008Q2,2008Q3,2008Q4,2009Q1,2009Q2,2009Q3,2009Q4,总成交金额,205.6,170.6,153.4,145.5,125.3,138.3,134.0,137.2,同比变化率,33.5%,5.6%,-31.4%,-10.7%,-39.0%,-18.9%,-12.7%,-5.7%,利率期货成交金额,170.3,135.4,113.4,116.2,106.3,115.6,106.3,106.5,同比变化率,41.3%,10.0%,-37.1%,-6.3%,-37.6%,-14.6%,-6.2%,-8.3%,外汇期货成交金额,0.8,0.8,0.7,0.5,0.4,0.5,0.5,0.6,同比变化率,108.1%,58.8%,24.1%,-29.4%,-47.6%,-43.0%,-29.0%,25.8%,股指期货成交金额,34.5,34.5,39.3,28.8,18.6,22.3,27.1,30.1,同比变化率,4.2%,-9.3%,-8.1%,-24.9%,-46.1%,-35.3%,-31.0%,4.3%,全球信用违约调期半年存额及其变化率单位:万亿美元($),20052,20061,20062,20071,20072,20081,20082,20091,20092,总额,10.67,15.73,22.57,32.98,44.60,45.95,33.88,28.00,25.51,同比变化率,129.4%,105.4%,111.5%,109.7%,97.6%,39.3%,-24.0%,-39.1%,-24.7%,报告交易商,6.99,10.67,16.23,23.29,31.62,33.40,25.05,19.24,17.70,同比变化率,155.0%,119.7%,132.3%,118.2%,94.9%,43.4%,-20.8%,-42.4%,-29.3%,其他金融机构,3.33,4.66,5.78,9.23,12.54,12.01,8.53,7.94,6.99,同比变化率,103.3%,83.0%,73.8%,98.2%,117.0%,30.1%,-32.0%,-33.9%,-18.1%,银行和证券公司,1.84,2.56,2.74,4.85,6.83,6.98,5.84,5.62,5.12,同比变化率,49.3%,90.0%,148.8%,43.9%,-14.5%,-19.6%,-12.4%,二、国内衍生产品市场现状,有升有降,缺位略缓仍存，有市交量少闻。,减缺补圆为要，对症良药何寻？,几年来，我国银行间产品逐渐从无到有，然而场内对冲产品有限，金融期货缺位；2010年4月正式推出股票指数期货标志着我们金融期货的正式启程。然而作为衍生产品的重要组成部分，期权仍然缺位！众多银行间产品从无到有，然而大多市场流动性仍然过低。,1、商品期货高歌猛进、一枝独秀,2005年成交量（百万手）,2006年成交量,（百万手）,2007年成交,（百万手）,2008年成交,（百万手）,2009年成交量,（百万手）,上海期货交易所,67.6,116.2,85.6,140.3,434.9,大连商品交易所,56.9,92.6,242.4,416.8,319.2,郑州商品交易所,198.3,240.7,93.1,222.6,227.1,全国,322.8,449.5,421.0,779.7,981.2,2009年三个交易所分别占全