外文翻译---印度服装纺织行业的出口竞争力

中文3150字毕业论文外文翻译出 处： open economies review 作 者 S AMAR VERMAM 原 文：Export Competitiveness of Indian Textile and Garment IndustryINTRODUCTIONThe international trade in textile and clothing sectors has been a egregious exception to the most favoured nation principle of GATT and, since the early 1960s, has been a case of managed trade through forced consensus. However, the WTO Agreement on Textile and Clothing (ATC) marked a significant turnaround. According to the ATC,beginning 1st January 1995, all textiles and clothing products that had been hitherto subjected to MFA-quota, are scheduled to be integrated into WTO over a period of ten years. “The dismantling of the quota regime represents both an opportunity as well as a threat. An opportunity because markets will no longer be restricted; a threat because markets will no longer be guaranteed by quotas, and even the domestic market will be open to competition”. From 1st January 2005, therefore, all textile and clothing products would be traded internationally without quota-restrictions. And this impending reality brings the issue of competitiveness to the fore for all firms in the textile and clothing sectors,including those in India. It is imperative to understand the true competitiveness of Indian textile and clothing firms in order to make an assessment of what lies ahead in 2005 and beyond. Owing to its significant contribution, the Indian textile and clothing industry occupies a unique place in the Indian economy. It contributes about 4% of GDP and 14% of industrial output. Second largest employer after agriculture, the industry provides direct employment to 35 million people including substantial segments of weaker sections of society. With a very low import-intensity of about 1.5% only, it is the largest net foreign exchange earner in India, earning almost 35% of foreign exchange. This is the only industry that is self-sufficient and complete in cotton value chain- producing everything from fibres to the highest value added finished product of garments. Its growth and vitality therefore has critical bearings on the Indian economy at large.What Is Competitiveness?Competitiveness is about productivity, which in turn is a function of factors related to cost of products, as well as those related to non-price factors such as delivery schedules, reliability of producers, and such intangible factors like image of the country/company and brand equity. Together, they define the competitive sinews of a product to compete under conditions of free market. However, in order to translate industry competitiveness into sales (greater export share in world market), another set of issues- in addition to productivity- need to be examined. These relate to market access conditions. Indeed, industry competitiveness of restrained exporters such as India was not much of an issue during the last almost four decades, ever since the Short Term Arrangement (STA) of 1961. And the reason lay not in price and non-price factors, but in the managed conditions under which global trade in textile and clothing products took place. In fact, it was precisely because of the price competitiveness of some Asian exporters in the 1950s and the 1960s that the “generally and solemnly agreed rules of post-war policy conduct- including the keystone of the system, the non-discrimination rules- were formally set aside for reasons regarded as pragmatic”. This system of managed trade, however, will come to an end on 31st December 2004.For the purpose of this study, industry has been defined as a group of firms manufacturing products that directly or indirectly competes with each other. It is implied that no nation can be competitive in manufacturing all goods and services. Hence, industry competitiveness of an entire nation is not quite meaningful. Instead, since it is the firms who compete in international markets, the entire framework of competitiveness would revolve around the study of the firm. “industrial success was founded on behaviour of firms, not on the decisions of governments”. The list of products (industries) identified is in Appendix A.Objective & Scope Of The StudyThe objective of the project is to evaluate the export competitiveness of Indian textile and clothing sectors. Because Indian textile and clothing sector is predominantly cotton based, this study would focus mainly on the cotton textile and apparel, and look at the entire value chain from fibre to garment and retail distribution. With the aforementioned objective in mind, this study has first identified the products in Indian export basket which have shown a promising growth in value, or in unit value and have a considerable weight in the Indian export basket on the basis of recent performance of Indian exports of textile and clothing sectors in the US and EU markets. Research Methodology In order to evaluate the demand-side of Indian textile and clothing exports, the study has analysed the competitive performance of Indian exports of the identifiedproducts in the US and EU markets. It has also been used to highlight the role of emerging trade policy environment- specifically, the role of discriminatory rules of origin in Regional Trading Arrangements RTAs, tariff peaks and environmental and labour standards- as market access issues relevant to textile and clothing exporting countries.To assess the supply-side factors of export competitiveness, a preliminary interview was conducted with a few exporters. The interview sought their views and opinions chiefly in respect of the supply-side bottlenecks that they are facing in India. The supply-side framework is based more on opinions than on data/ numbers. The inferences about the supply-side factors are therefore based on the opinions expressed by exporters of identified products.GLOBAL TRADE IN TEXTILE AND CLOTHING: INDIAS COMPETITIVE PERFORMANCEDuring the MFA period, the textile exporters from industrial countries and those from developing countries merely changed shares between themselves during the 24 years period. The share of industrial countries declined by almost as much (19.2%) as was the gain in the share of developing countries (18.8%). Clothing exporters.however, exhibit significant changes, with the share of top 13 exporters having declined by 13.8%. New entrants have come in as well as some old ones have been knocked out. Of these new entrants, most- if not all- are from developing countries, since the share of industrial countries has declined during the period, and that of developing countries has increased. The countries that are gaining share in clothing exports are the ones whose industries are integrated to one or the other advanced country through some policy-induced preferential arrangements. Mexico, Caribbean region, East European countries and Mediterranean countries are capturing much of the space vacated. There has been a much deeper globalisation in clothing than in textiles. Indeed, that has been one of the principal reasons for the developed countries agreeing to an eventual phase-out of MFA quota in the UR of negotiations.During the MFA period, (between 1973 to 1997, to be precise), while in textiles, there was an inexorable shift away from developed countries and to developing countries at large, in clothing the shift away from developed countries is increasingly being grabbed by preferred developing countries.Thus, in clothing, the non-preferred group of developing countries is fighting amongst themselves for a pie that is increasingly declining. One should expect a much higher level of intra-industry and intra-firm trade in clothing than in textiles. This is entirely compatible with the fact that it is the trade in clothing that is growing faster than that in textiles. And this trend is likely to deepen, as clothing retailers consolidate, and Outward Processing Trade (OPT) traffic increases. The opportunity clearly lies much more in clothing, though the caveat is that the exporting country would have to achieve the preferred status, and integrate its manufacturing with that of an importing country in order to continue exporting to the restricted markets. The pressure to export would intensify in the years to come since 80% of additional output during 1995-2005 is expected to be located in developing countries. On the other hand, only 50% of the additional fibre consumption would originate in developing countries.Indias Competitive Performance in the US1.Of the eight cotton apparels, Indias market share (in 2000) in US import market exceeded 10% in cotton dresses (336), W&G woven shirts (341), and cotton skirts (342). Market share grew in 336 and 341. In 336, India exported higher quantity at reduced prices, while in 341, India moved up the value chain. But the US import market grew strongly in 341 and 342, and not as much in 336. However, in 341, the size of quota is close to the size of US home market, whereas in 336, about 43% of US home market would be opened only on 1st January 2005. Therefore, not much growth should be expected in 341 in terms of US market size. Besides, there are no current threats from preferred developing countries in 341 yet. Hence this is one category where India should very clearly focus, since the competitor countries are essentially Asian. The one big threat, would be China. Currently, China exports at an appreciably higher uvr compared to India. The evidence from 1995-2000 indicate that China has upgraded its 341 faster than India has. If China continues on that path, India may not worry too much, since the gap between Indian and Chinese prices would be quite significant. But then, if India also upgrades its product, as it has done in 341, competitiveness based only on price will be extremely risky.2. In descending order of uvr, Indian exports of the chosen cotton apparels belong to between 40 and 50 percentile, among all supplier countries for a given MFA product category. Which means India operates in the low value segment in most cotton apparels in the US. However, it is interesting to note that there are three cotton apparels whose uvr have been between percentiles 55 and 60. They are knit shirts (cat 338) and trousers for M&B (cat 347) and for W&G (cat 348). Incidentally, US imports of these products is growing fastest among all cotton apparel categories. However, India has lost market share in all except 347 during 1995-2000. In 347, its unit prices have grown fastest among top ten suppliers. And almost 70% of US market remain to become quota-free only on 1st January 2005. India must build up its strength in this product category quickly to capture the huge market that would suddenly open in 2005. Quite apart from preferred group of developing countries, Pakistan is one country which has done exceedingly well in 347, and has been building its domestic manufacturing facilities very fast. But Pakistan is not yet as much of a threat since its unit value is considerably lower than India. China, however, is likely to emerge as a big threat to India in 347 since their uvr is closer to Indias and they too are upgrading their product rapidly. Their market share declined due wholly to quota constraint. But they seem to be producing less numbers, and better quality of 347 for US export market. They would pose a big challenge to India.3. In cotton apparels, the competitor countries- aside from preferred developing countries- are Indonesia, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Philippines, Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. From among these, Bangladesh is the lowest cost supplier in almost all categories. In view of the threat from preferred developing countries, India must move away from competing only on the basis of price, since the share of this segment is any case declining with the preferred countries growing rapidly in this segment. And when India upgrades its value, it would have to contend with strong Asian competitors like Hong Kong, China and South Korea, whose performance has been constrained due to quota ceilings. But once the quotas are removed, India may find itself again losing in this upgraded market segment due to sheer size of these countries exports. The important lesson for India therefore is that it must not only upgrade its values, but also begin to find ways of competing increasingly on non-price factors.译文印度服装纺织行业的出口竞争力一、简介20世纪60年代初以来，纺织和服装部门的国际贸易一直是在关贸总协定和最惠国待遇原则之外的，一直都是通过强迫达成的共识。然而，从1995年1月1日开始，世界贸易组织纺织品与服装协议（ATC）的实施标志着一个重大的转变。所有的纺织品和服装产品将在加入WTO 之后有为期十年的配额，这些配额有MFA决定。配额制度的拆除代表的是一种机遇，也是一种威胁。机会是因为市场不会受到限制；威胁是市场将不再受配额得到保证，甚至将开放国内的市场竞争。从2005年1月1号开始，所有的纺织品和服装产品的国际贸易将没有限额配置。这即将到来的现实给从印度所有的服装和纺织行业公司带来了竞争力方面的问题。2005年之后的印度服装和纺织行业的竞争力问题是怎么样的，当务之急是了解其中的真相。由于其显着贡献，印度的服装和纺织行业在印度经济中占有显著的地位。它贡献了大约4%的国内生产总值和14%的工业总产值。其就业人口达到了35万人，是仅次于农业和工业提供就业人口的第二大产业。在印度1.5%的低强度下，它是印度最大的净收入来源，占有近35%的外汇。这个行业是唯一的自给自足的从价值链生产到成品的最佳附加值的产业。它的增长是印度经济增长的关键所在。二、什么是竞争力竞争力是一种生产力，是关于一组相关的产品成本因素的作用，以及那些涉及非价格因素，如交货时间，生产商的可靠性，如一个国家或者公司的形象等无形因素品牌权益的生产力。他们是在自由市场条件下一个产品的竞争力。然而，为了将产业竞争力更多的进入到一种销售（更大的世界市场出口份额），另一些的生产力的竞争力需要被检查。事实上，自从1961年的短期安排（STA）开始，这些涉及市场准入条件，行业限制的问题，如印度出口商的竞争力等在过去40年的问题很多。其原因不在于价格也非价格的因素的条件，是在“管理”的条件下，在纺织和服装产品的全球贸易中发生的。事实上，正是因为20世纪50-60年代一些亚洲出口商的价格竞争力的“普遍商定的规则，并郑重战后政策的行为，包括体系的基石，以及不歧视规则作为务实等的原因”。但是，这种贸易体系将出现到2004年13月31日底。就本研究的目的，行业内被定义为一个厂商之间的直接或间接的相互竞争。这是任何国家和企业在生产商品或服务的时候都隐含的竞争。因此，整个名族工业的竞争力就不太有意义了。相反，因为它是企业在国际市场上的竞争，竞争力的整个框架将围绕在该公司进行。“工业的成功是建立在企业的行为，而不是对政府的决策。”该产品的名单确定在附录A 。三、目标及研究范围该项目的目的是评估印度纺织和服装部门的出口竞争力。由于印度纺织和服装行业主要是在棉的基础上的，研究将主要集中在棉纺织品和服装，并从整个纤维到服装的成品等价值链到分销，零售等上研究。随着上述的目标研究，这项研究首次发现，印度的出口产品在在美国和欧盟市场的纺织品和服装部门在相当大的比重的基础上近期表现出价值或单位价值成长潜力。四、研究方法为了评估印度纺织品和服装出口方面的需求，文中研究了印度出口产品在美国和欧盟的市场所确定的的产品的竞争力的性能。它也被用于突出新兴贸易政策具体环境的作用下，原产地规则的歧视性区域贸易安排区域贸易协定，关税高峰和环境的作用 和劳工标准相关问题的纺织品和服装出口国家的市场准入。为了评估供应方面因素的出口竞争力，对一些国家的纺织品和服装出口的供应商进行就劳工标准的相关问题进行初步的访谈。此次访谈主要是寻求他们在印度供应方面的问题，面临对他们的意见和看法。供给方面的框架是就基础之上的意见以数据/数字为准。关于供应方面因素的推论是根据所确定产品出口的情况。五、纺织品和服装的全球贸易：印度的竞争表现在MFA 期间，来自工业国家和发展中国家的纺织品出口只是在24年之间的配额有所改变。其中，工业国家的和发展中国家的配额下降的几乎一样，工业国家下降了（19.2%），发展中国家下降了（18.8%）。然而，服装出口自从在出口产品排名13位后的表现了显著的下降了13.8%。行业进入以及一些旧的已经被淘汰了。由于工业化的国家的份额在下降，这些新进入者都是来自于发展中国家。这些国家正在争取那些其集成到一个或通过其他一些政策性优惠安排先进国家的工业在服装出口中的份额。墨西哥，加勒比海地区，东欧国家和地中海国家抓住了其中大部分的空间。而服装比纺织品跟有全球化的深度。事实上，这些都因为在乌拉圭回合谈判中被发达国家淘汰了。在MFA 期间（更准确的说是在1973年到1997年），在纺织品有个必然的转变，发达国家和发展中国家的大型服装更多的从发达国家转到了发展中国家。因此，在服装方面，没被选中的发展中国家他们的竞争就日益下降了。在服装行业和企业内部的贸易远高于纺织业的水平。这是完全符合事实的，它是因为服装贸易增长快于纺织品的兼容。而且这一趋势可能加深，以及OPT的流量增加。显然服装拥有更多的机会，但需要说明的是，出口国必须达到的首选的地位，并与其进口国进行整合，制造业为了继续出口到受市场的限制。在1995-2005年期间，因为产量增加80，发展中国家的出口的压力将加强。另一方面，只有50的额外纤维消费量将来自发展中国家。六、印度竞争力在美国的评价1、印度在棉服装方面，绵连衣裙（336）、梭织衬衫（341）和棉裙（342）占美国进口市场份额的10%以上。336和341的市场份额增长了。在336方面，印度出口量减少，因而价格走高，而在341方面，印度运用了价值链。所以341和342在美国进口市场增长强劲，而不是336。然而，在341方面，配额大小接近美国国内市场规模，而在336方面，约43的美国国内市场开放只能在2005年1月1日。因此，341预期在美国的市场规模应该没有太大的增长。此外， preferred发展中国家在341在方面没有太大的威胁。因此在印度这是一类应该很清楚重点，因为竞争对手基本上是亚洲人。中国将是一个大威胁，中国的出口在一定程度上已经高于印度。从1995-2000年的证据表明，中国341出口已经快于印度。如果中国再这样下去，由于中国和印度之间的价格差异相当的大，印度还不会太过于在意，如果印度也升级其产品，就像中国升级314一样，那么基于价格的优势将相当危险。2、在所有产品供应国的MFA设定的类别下，由于UVR的逐渐递减下，印度棉服装的出口占40到50个百分点左右。这意味着印度的棉服装产品在美国是属于低价值产品。然而，有趣的是，有三个棉服装产品的占有率在50%-60%之间。它们是针织衬衫(cat 338)，M&B (cat 347)和W&G (cat 348)。顺便说一句，这些产品是所有棉制服装中在美国进口增长最快的几种。然而，在1995-2000期间，印度失去了除347之外的所有棉服装产品的市场份额。对于347，其价格已经增长到了所有供应商的前十。而几乎70的美国市场，成为唯一留在05年1月1日配额。印度必须建立在这个产品类别的实力来迅速捕捉2005年突然开放的巨大的市场。在一些 preferred国家当中，巴基斯坦就是一个在347方面做得很好的一个国家，并已经非常迅速的建立了国内生产设施。不过，巴基斯坦还不是威胁，因为它的单位价值相比与印度还是较低的。但是，中国在347方面就是一个大威胁，因为他们的UVR和印度相近，而且，他们也在产品升级方面做的很快。他们的市场份额下降完全由于配额的限制。但是他们的347因为生产数量少，而质量好的原因，在美国市场方面对印度是一个大威胁。 3、在棉服装的竞争对手国家，除了 preferred 发展中国家之外，还包括印度尼西亚，马来西亚，香港，菲律宾，印度尼西亚，斯里兰卡和孟加拉国。其中，孟加拉国是几乎所有类别的成本最低的供应商。从 preferred发展中国家的威胁中，印度必须摆脱单纯在价格的基础上的竞争，因为越来越多的 preferred国家这部分的份额在这一领域迅速下降。当印度升级它的价值，由于亚洲强劲的竞争对手，它将不得不与香港，中国和韩国等在配额上竞争。但一旦配额取消，由于这些国家的出口规模庞大印度可能会发现自己又在这个升级市场损失巨大。对于印度的重要教训是发现非价格因素的影响越来越重。