汇率制度-Chapter5International

,单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,*,Chapter 4,International Exchange System,第五章 国际汇率制度,第一节 固定汇率制Fixed Rate System,The world economy operated under a system of,fixed dollar exchange rates,between the end of World War II and 1973, with central banks routinely trading foreign exchange to hold their exchange rates at internationally agreed levels.,1,Two kinds of the fixed exchange rates,金本位制度下的固定汇率制,纸币流通制度下的固定汇率制,Gold Standard:,规定货币单位的含金量。,含金量的的对比决定汇率,。,金币可以,自由,铸造；,自由,兑换；,自由,输出入。,2,The Gold Standard,An international gold standard,avoids the asymmetry inherent in a reserve currency standard,by avoiding the “,N,th currency” problem. Under a gold standard, each country,fixes the price of its currency in terms of gold,by standing ready to trade domestic currency for gold whenever necessary to defend the official price.,3,Advantage of the Gold Standard,Because there are,N,currency and,N,prices of gold in terms of those currencies,no single country occupies a privileged position within the system,: each is responsible for pegging its currencys price in terms of the official international reserve asset, gold. Gold standard rules also require each country to allow,unhindered imports and exports of gold,across its borders.,4,Benefits and drawbacks of the Gold Standard,Benefits:,Symmetry,Price level and value of national money are more stable and predictable,Enhance international transactions,5,Drawbacks:,Constraints on the use of monetary policy to fight unemployment.,Tying currency values to gold ensures a stable overall price level only if the relative price of gold is stable.gold discovery in South America,An international payments system based on gold is problematic because central banks cannot increase their holdings of international reserves as their economies grow unless there are continual new gold discoveries.,The gold standard gives gold-producing countries power to influence the world economy,6,The Gold Exchange Standard,Halfway between the gold standard and a pure reserve currency standard is the,gold exchange standard,. Central banks reserves consist of gold and currencies whose prices in terms of gold are fixed, and each central bank fixes its exchange rate to a currency with a fixed gold price.,More,flexibility,in the growth of international reserves.,7,Fixed Exchange Rates under currency-circulation system,纸币流通下的,布雷顿森林体系,。,1944,Bretton Woods agreement,英国向美国妥协的结果“,双挂钩,”体系。,金块,美元dollar,各国货币,日元,里拉,1盎司=35美元,1%幅度波动,8,How to sustain the Fixed Rate,维持固定汇率制的手段：,动用黄金储备（储备项目）,利用贴现政策（资本项目）,施行外汇管制（或签订互换货币协定）,实行法定贬值（,last resort,）,9,Dilemma of US dollar,美国逆差,收支平衡,向他国提供美元,保持对美元信心,10,Process of dollar devaluation,美元贬值,1944 1971 1973,1盎司值美元,35,38,42.22,脱钩浮动,11,Abandoned Gold Exchange Standard,The post-World War II reserve currency system centered on the dollar was, in fact, originally set up as a gold exchange standard. While foreign central banks did the job of pegging exchange rates, the U.S. Federal Reserve was responsible for holding the dollar price of gold at $35 an ounce. By the mid-1960s, the system operated in practice more like a pure reserve currency system than a gold standard. President Nixon unilaterally,severed the dollars link to gold in August 1971, shortly before the system of fixed dollar exchange rates was abandoned.,12,Floating Exchange Rate System,第二节 浮动汇率制度,特征,：,不,规定本国货币与外币,黄金平价,不,规定汇率波动的,上下限,中央银行,无,义务维持汇率波动界限,义务,外汇,市场,供求决定汇率,国际收支,变化是影响汇率的主要因素,13,Types of floating exchange rates,政府有否干预(dirty hand),自由浮动,Free Float/Clean Float,管理浮动,Managed Float/Dirty Float,是否与其他货币发生联系(,Connection),单独浮动,Single Float,英镑，美元，日元等,27,个国家。,钉住浮动,Pegged Float,(1),钉住某一种货币：过去的殖民地与宗主国之间关系(2)钉住一揽子货币：,SDR; ECU;,取决于主要贸易伙伴国。,联合浮动,Joint Float,欧共体。,14,Advantage and drawback of floating rate,浮动汇率制度的有利因素：,可以防止大量游资对硬货币的冲击。,可以防止外汇和黄金储备的流失。,各国有较大的自由来推行本国政策。,总而言之，,没有义务,来维护固定汇率。,15,Drawbacks of floating exchange rate,浮动汇率的三方面弊端：,增加进出口贸易结算成本和风险，不利于国际贸易的发展。,助长国际金融市场上的投机活动。,各国采取以邻为壑政策，竞争性货币贬值。,Beggar-thy-neighbor policy.,16,Krugman & Obstfeld (1),Discipline,. Central banks freed from the obligation to fix their exchange rates might embark on inflationary policies.,Destabilizing speculation and money market disturbances,. Speculation on changes in exchange rates could lead to instability in foreign exchange markets.,Injury to international trade and investment.,Floating rates would make relative international prices more unpredictable.,17,Krugman & Obstfeld (2),4.,Uncoordinated economic policies,. The door would be opened to competitive currency practices harmful to the would economy.,5.,The illusion of greater autonomy,. Floating exchange rates would not really give countries more policy autonomy. Changes in exchange rates would have such pervasive macroeconomic effects that central banks would feel compelled to intervene heavily in foreign exchange markets even without a formal commitment to peg.,18,Selection of Fixed & Floating Exchange Rates,固定汇率制和浮动汇率制的选择取决于一国的国情：,大国还是小国；,发展中国家还是发达国家；,此事古难全,19,Exchange Rate System in Hong Kong,第三节 联系汇率制度（演变史）,1935美元,英镑区成员，港币与英镑之间是固定汇率,1英镑=16港元,1972,英镑自由浮动，港币与美元建立固定联系,1美元=5.65港元,1973,美元自由浮动，港币也自由浮动,不断贬值过程,1983.10,港币直接与美元挂钩，,联系汇率制度,开始,1美元=7.8港元,20,Stabilization Policies,香港联系汇率制度的主要内容:,从1983年10月17日起，发钞银行增发的港元现钞，一律以1美元=7.8港元的比价，事先向外汇基金交纳美元。保证了,港币的发行有美元的准备,。1994年进一步规定上述固定汇率只使用于发钞银行与外汇基金之间。其他交易则全部按照市场汇率来进行。,21,Adaptability and Vitality,Hong Kong: small open economy,资源贫乏，生产资料和生活必需品依赖进口。香港,对外贸易,是本地,GDP 的2.5倍。,外资,在香港经济中占绝对比重。外资占股票市场交易额的三分之一。,Weathering the Storms,1987年全球股灾；1990年海湾战争；1991年欧洲汇率机制解体；1997-1998年亚洲金融危机。,22,Evolution of Exchange System of RMB in China,23,24,25,26,1990,$1=, 4.78 (5.83),人民币贬值9.57%,1991,$1=, 5.32 (6.78),允许个人外汇存取买卖,1992,$1=, 5.51 (8.62),全国外汇调剂中心成立连网42个地方外汇调剂市场,1993,$1=, 5.76 (9.65),外汇稳定基金建立,第六时期： 人民币汇率小幅度升值,1994,$1=, 8.61 (8.71),统一汇率，结束复汇率制,1995,$1=, 8.35 (8.38),取消外汇兑换券,1996,$1=, 8.31 (8.34),加入IMF第8成员国，个人居民可经营外汇,1997,$1=, 8.31,亚洲金融危机爆发,27,Features of RMB rate-,Exchange system in China,现行人民币制度的特点：,单一的,管理浮动汇率,制度 (,1994,并轨后),直接标价法,买卖价，中间价，,有汇价，钞价两种,有远期人民币的买卖（,1971年开始15种货币买卖远期人民币，中国没有规定远期汇率，远期汇率=即期汇率+远期费）,汇率的挂牌,28,