PMP考前培训(1)

单击以编辑母版标题样式,PMP考前培训,什么是项目？,PMBOK 1.2,具体目标：明确定义、现实可行的目标(clearly defined realistic objectives)。,临时性或一次性（Temporary）：明确的开始与结束。,独特性（Unique）：创造独特的产品、服务或结果。,相关的活动并消耗资源(Interrelated activities and consume resources)。,问题：,项目的4个特征中最重要的2个是什么？,项目与日常运营的共性与区别？,项目,有始有终(Temporary),开始和结束,独特的(Unique),产品或服务,由人来实施,受制于有限的资源,需要计划、实施和控制,运营,重复的(repetive),进行的(ongoing),项目与运营（Operation）的关系,渐进细化（Progressive Elaboration）,PMBOK 1.2.3,是临时性与 独特性的综合。,渐进：按步骤进行，稳步增加,细化：仔细地将内容的细节全面展开。,问题：以下哪一个不能被渐进细化？,A：范围,B：风险,C：项目产品,D：项目服务,质量(Quality, Objective, requirements ),成本 (Cost, Budget),时间 (Time, Schedule),牵一发而动全身,范围,风险,项目的三个约束条件,项目管理的定义,什么是项目管理,通过使用知识、技能、工具和方法来组织、计划、实施并监控项目活动，使之满足项目需要。,源：PMBOK2000,项目管理的特点,过程、管理系统、方法的集合；,有效的计划和控制；,是对项目、项目群、项目组合的管理；,项目管理既是管理科学，也是管理艺术。,子项目（Subproject）,PMBOK 1.5,项目中某一部分，在一定水平上是独立运作的时候，就称之为“子项目”。,可内：Project team.,可外：Subcontractor.,以一个单独阶段或项目过程为基础。,例如：,根据过程分：实施,人员技能分：工种,技术内容分：程序自动测试。,大型项目/项目群（program）,PMBOK 1.5,一组相关项目。,有Ongoing operations,运维,例如：,飞机生产,出版报刊杂志,单一项目就是项目群的子项目。,在很多情况下可以互用。,项目组合管理（Portfolio Management）,公司战略与可用资源有机结合的一种投资管理战略。(Investment Management Strategy coordinating organizations strategic and available resources),选择和支持某些产品生产线项目或大型项目，通过这些项目把公司战略与资源联系在一起。,(Selection and support of specific product line projects and programs that link the organizations strategic plan, investments),项目管理办公室（PMO）,负责协调许多项目及不同产品交织一起的大型项目。,可作为组织的一个部门。,设立标准并主要负责以下事物：,采购、风险、WBS Dictionary,绩效评估,资源管理,题外话：,CAPM,PMPAuto,CAQSoftware DevelopmentPMP+3500Hr+75Questions,PMO,项目生命周期,概念（Concept）,开发（Development）,实施（Implementation）,结束（Termination）,问题：,冲突在项目生命周期中最多的阶段是？,冲突在项目生命周期中次多的阶段是？,必须是4个阶段吗？,时间,人员,风险&机会,开始,结束,项目干系人对项目的影响随着时间的推移变得越来越微弱。,成功的概率随着时间的推移越来越大,每个 阶段的结束以预先定义的可交付成果为标志,风险最大影响时段,项目生命周期的特性(I),成本,项目生命周期的需要注意其他的方面,Phase end Review:,又叫Phase exits, Stage gates, Kill points,继续吗？ Go/no go.,Corrective Action,Lessons learned.,区别project life cycle和 product life cycle:,项目经理沟通方向及关系,项目,经理,赞助人,老板,项目,团队,同事,其他PM,顾客,供应商,职能部门经理,媒体,政府,大众,强矩阵型,平衡矩阵,弱矩阵型,全时,全时,部分时间,部分时间,部分时间,项目管理行政人员,项目经理/计划经理,项目经理/计划经理,项目经理/项目主任,PM协调员/项目主管,PM协调员/项目主管,项目经理的头衔,全时,全时,全时,部分时间,部分时间,项目经理,85-100%,50-95%,15-60%,0-25%,几乎没有,项目全时人员%,大到几乎全权,中等到大,小到中等,有限,很少或没有,项目经理的权威,项目型,组织,矩 阵 型 组 织,职能型,组织,组织类,型,项目特点,项目组织结构对项目的影响,项目管理5个过程,决定立项,依照计划执行,执行情况与计划比较,调整执行情况,计划提供控制基线,根据变更调整计划,基本思路贯穿在,项目的每一个环节,制约因素,Constrains,PMBOK 4.1.1.4,Applicable restriction,affect the performance of the project.,limit teams option on scope, staffing, schedule.,问题:,我们能改变制约因素吗?,我们能回避制约因素吗?,制约因素的几个可能的来源是什么?,假设(,Assumptions),PMBOK 4.1.1.5,for planning purpose,considered to be True, Real or Certain,Project team frequently Identify, Document, and Validate assumptions as part of Planning Process.,项目计划与项目绩效基线,PMBOK 4.1.3.1,项目计划：,Formal, approved document used to manage project execution.,Change over time,.,Includes a lot:,项目绩效基线,：,Scope,Time,Cost,Changed upon the approved changes on scope of work/deliverable.,计划实施的工具和技术,PMBOK 4.2.2,一般管理技术。,产品技能和知识。（resource planning and staff acquisition）,工作授权体系（Work authorization system ）,批准项目工作的一个正式程序，用来确保：,按照恰当的时间、顺序完成工作。,状态评审会,PMIS,组织程序,计划实施-工作结果 Work Result,PMBOK 4.2.3.1,定义：为完成项目所执行活动的各种结果。（Outcomes of activities performed to accomplish the project.）,提供如下信息：,Deliverables 哪个完成，哪个没有,Quality standard 满足程度如何,Cost incurred/Committed (源自绩效报告),Can be Tangible or Intangible, But always Measurable.,计划实施,变,更请求 Change Request,PMBOK 4.2.3.2,通常在项目工作完成时被识别。,例如: 对范围、成本、进度的变更申请。,多种形式：oral/written, direct/indirect, externally/internally initiated, legal/optional,但是，必须是正式的（Formal）,集成变更控制,PMBOK 4.3,(Integrated Change Controls),关心的是：,对引起变更的因素施加影响，以保证这些变更是征得同意的。,确定变更已经发生。,当变更实际发生时进行管理。,注意：以上3条适用于具体变更控制过程，如：Scope, cost, time,要做的是：,维护performance measurement baseline完整性,确保product scope的变更在Project scope中反映,协调各知识领域的变更。,通过：,拒绝新的变更。,批准变更并修订项目基线。,变更控制系统,PMBOK 4.3.2.1,(Change Control System),由以下内容组成：,正式、文档化的程序。,包括正式项目文件变更的步骤。,规定如何对项目绩效进行监督和评估。,包括：,文书工作（Paperwork）,跟踪制度和流程（Tracking systems and processes）,授权变更所需的批准级别（Approval level necessary for authorizing changes）,控制小组（CCB, ERB, TRB, TAB）,“自动”批准变更,配置管理,PMBOK 4.3.2.1,（Configuration Management）,任何文档化的程序，用于对以下方面进行技术和行政的指挥与监督：,识别工作项或系统的,物理特性,和,功能特征,，并形成文档。,控制这些特征的任何变更。,记录并报告这些变更及实施状态。,审计这些工作项和系统以证实其与需求一致。,很多领域是变更控制系统的子集。,也可能指对变更进行的任何系统的管理。,不能,“自动”批准变更,产品描述 Product Description,PMBOK 5.1.1.1,把项目将要创造的,产品或服务的特征,编制成文档。,应将产品或服务与商业需求或其他导致项目产生原因之间的关系编制成文档。,可以随项目的进行渐进细化。在项目初期, be less detail/high level, 然后,但是, 又要 detailed enough for,project planning,当Seller按照与Buyer订立的Contract执行时，最初的产品描述一般由Buyer提供。,项目选择方法,PMBOK 5.1.2.1,Project Selection Method,方法：,效益测量法（Benefit measurement methods）,Economic Model, scoring model,约束优化法（Constrained optimization methods),Mathematical Model,决策模型 Decision Model:,General Techniques(decision trees, forced choice),Specific Techniques(Analytic Hierarchy Process, Logical Framework Analysis,),Apply complex project selection criteria in a Sophisticated mode,separate project phase (Feasibility Study phase),Decision Model,赢利能力的计算（Profitability Calculation,）,投资报酬率,( ROI )=Operating income/Investment,现值 (PV) = FV/ (1+r),n,净现值 (,NPV),内部收益率 (IRR),使投资现值之和等于收入现值之和的折现率。,回收期（,Payback period）,项目章程 Project Charter,PMBOK 5.1.3.1,定义：,A document that formally authorizes a project.,内容：,Officially establishes the project.,Assign the project manager and authorizes the use of organizations resources to accomplish project activities.,Provides a general description of project objective and business reason for project.,问题：,以下哪个是销售方（seller）的项目章程？,Contract3. Statement of requirement,Scope statement4. Statement of Objective,项目经理的指派,PMBOK 5.1.3.2,Project Managers Assignment,项目可行，越早越好。,最迟不得晚于Execution.,Preferable早于项目计划编制完成前。,问题：以上哪个最好？,One answering principle, only choose the best fit answer.,范围说明 Scope Statement,PMBOK 5.1.3.1,Provides a documented basis for,Making,future project,decision,Confirming or developing common understanding,of project scope among the,stakeholders,.,Will be revised or refined to reflect approved scope changes.,Includes or reference to:,项目论证（Project justification,） Business needs; a basis for tradeoffs.,Projects product, product description(5.1.1.1),Project deliverables, a list of summary level Sub-products.,Project objectives, quantifiable criteria to measure success,at least: Cost,Schedule,Quality,SMART Objective,Involves subdividing the major project deliverables or sub-deliverables,smaller,more manageable units,Until sufficient detailed defined deliverables to,Support developing Activity.,分解 Decomposition,PMBOK 5.2.2.2,Step 1: 识别主要可交付成果 Identify major deliverables,Step 2: Decide if adequate cost and duration estimate can be developed,Step 3: Identify constituent components,(组成元素),Step 4: Verify the correctness,工作分解结构 WBS,PMBOK 5.3.3.1,面向可交付成果而对项目元素的分组，它组织并定义了整个项目范围。,Deliverable-oriented, Not activity oriented.,Work not in WBS is outside scope of project.,Unique identifier, Code of account,Work package Lowest level item of WBS, Can be decomposed in a Subproject WBS., some books: 80 hours.,WBS dictionary: work component descriptions.,typically include: work package, schedule dates,Cost budget, staff assignment,工作分解结构与其他结构的区别,PMBOK 5.3.3.1,CWBS(Contractual WBS)：合同工作分解结构,定义卖方提供给买方报告的层次，不如WBS详细。,OBS(Organization breakdown structure)：组织分解结构,显示工作被分配到组织单元。,RBS (Resource breakdown structure)：资源分解结构,OBS的一种变异，将工作元素分配到个人。,BOM (Bill of Material)：材料清单,制造产品所需零部件等的分级层次。,PBS (Project breakdown Structure) ：项目分解结构,即WBS，用于某些将BOM称为WBS的领域。,范围核实 Scope Verification,PMBOK 5.4,是项目干系人正式接受（Formal Acceptance）项目的过程。,需要审查Deliverables和Work results，以确保正确圆满完成。,项目提前终止，则应对项目完成程度建立文档。,注意区别：范围核实与质量控制。,范围核实：关心工作结果的“接受Acceptance”,质量控制：关心工作结果的“正确性Correctness”,Inspection= Review, product reviews, audits, walkthrough,变更申请,Change Request,PMBOK 5.5.1.3,多种形式：oral/written, direct/indirect, externally/internally initiated, legal/optional,但是，必须是正式的（Formal）,引起变更申请的原因：,外部事件,定义Product scope 时的错误或遗漏（error/omission）,定义Project scope 时的错误或遗漏（error/omission）,Value-adding change (尤其在Optional时),Risk,contingency plan or workaround plan.(11.6.3.3),Activity Definition 活动定义,PMBOK 6.1,分解(Decomposition 6.1.2.1)：将工作包细分为：更小、更易于管理的活动（Activity）。,与范围定义中分解的区别:,Output 不同：deliverable / activity.,活动清单（6.1.3.1）,项目执行的,所有活动,。,WBS的延伸。,每个活动要有描述。,WBS更新（6.1.3.3）。,又叫精细化 Refinement.,Dependencies 依赖关系,PMBOK 6.2,M,andatory,强制,Often involve physical or technological limitations (based on the nature of work being done),也叫硬逻辑，硬依赖关系。,Discretionary,任意,Best practice,软逻辑,Soft Logic: desirable and customary (based on experience),优先,Preferential: preferred or mandated by a customer (also, need of the project sponsor),External,Project activity with nonproject activity.,前导图法,PMBOK 6.2.2.1,Precedence Diagramming Method,AON (Activity on Node): Node=activity, Arrow=dependencies,One time estimate,Lead and Lag,Four relationships:,Finish to Start,Finish to Finish,Start to Start,Start to Finish,TASK1,TASK2,TASK1,TASK2,TASK1,TASK2,TASK1,TASK2,ES,EF,LS,LF,ES,EF,LS,LF,箭线图法,PMBOK 6.2.2.2,Arrow Diagramming Method,AOA (Activity on Arrow)： 双代号网络图，活动在箭线上。,有虚拟活动Dummy Activity: 一般用虚线表示, 0 duration.,No Lag,One relationship: Finish to start,S,1,2,3,4,E,A,B,C,D,E,F,G,计划评审技术 PERT,PMBOK 6.4.2.1,Three time estimate,悲观值 Pessimistic,最可能值 Most Likely,乐观值 Optimistic,Weighted Average=(Optimistic + 4*Most likely + Pessimistic)/6,Standard deviation(标准差)=(Pessimistic - Optimistic)/6,Beta Distribution,Most Likely,PERT Weighted Average,关键路径法 CPM,PMBOK 6.4.2.1,One time estimate Most likely,Calculate forward pass & backward pass,Float/Slack 时差,Free float= Early Finish - Early start of successor activity,(不影响任何紧随活动的ES。),Total Float = Early finish Late finish (不影响项目完工日期。),Critical Path,Longest,Shortest,Zero,条件图法,PMBOK 6.2.2.3,Conditional Diagramming Method,GERT：图形评审技术,允许回路（LOOP，如：重复多次进行一项测试）或条件分枝 （Conditional branches，如：只有当检测出错误时才进行设计更新）的存在，这是PDM和ADM所不允许的。,Conditional and probabilistic treatment,System Dynamics Models：系统动态模型,工期=7,Task A,ES,EF,LS,LF,工期=6,Task C,ES,EF,LS,LF,工期=3,Task G,ES,EF,LS,LF,工期=3,Task B,ES,EF,LS,LF,工期=3,Task D,ES,EF,LS,LF,工期=2,Task F,ES,EF,LS,LF,工期=3,Task E,ES,EF,LS,LF,工期=2,Task H,ES,EF,LS,LF,开始,结束,计算,子网络 Sub Nets Fragnets,PMBOK 6.2.2.4,网络模板（Network templates）,使制图过程更便捷。,可包括整个项目，也可是其中一部分。,网络的一部分称为：子网络。,特别用于网络中有重叠或相似内容时。,例如：盖楼的每一层、医药临床等。,赶工 Crashing:,成本与进度的平衡/折衷。（cost and schedule tradeoff）。,确定如何用最小的成本获得最大的工期压缩。,通常成本增加。,快速跟进 Fast tracking:,将前后顺序变为平行 （change sequence to parallel）。,通常风险增加。,工期压缩 Duration Compression,PMBOK 6.4.2.2,Resource Leveling/Smoothing/Allocation:,用在,resources constraint circumstances,.,将稀缺资源先分配到关键路径上。 Allocate scare resources to the Critical Path Activities first.,通常导致比最初进度更长的工期。Often result the longer duration than preliminary schedule.,资源重新分配 （Resource Reallocation）:,用在,time constraint circumstances,将资源从非关键路径上重新分配到关键路径上，以弥补已经落今后的进度，或尽可能接近原定工期。（Resources reallocated from non-critical to critical activities to bring the schedule back， or as close as possible to its originally intended overall duration.）,Extend hours, weekends, multiple shifts.,Increase productivity by using different technologies and machinery.,启发式资源平衡法,PMBOK 6.4.2.4,Resource Leveling Heuristics,启发式资源平衡法,PMBOK 6.4.2.4,Resource Leveling Heuristics,资源逆向分配 （Reverse resource allocation scheduling）:,有限或关键资源（Finite and critical resource).,从项目结束时间逆推进度（Scheduled backwards from ending date）,关键路径资源计划 Critical Chain resource Planning:,A technique modifies the schedule to account for limited resources.,Question:,Add more people on a task can increase or decrease the productivity?,进度更新 Schedule Updates,PMBOK 6.5.3.1,更新 Update:,Modification to schedule,May or May Not require to adjustments to other aspects of project Plan.,修订 Revision:,Special category of Update.,Change to the start and finish dates in approved project schedule.,Generally in response to the scope changes or changes to estimate.,重新确定基线 Rebaselining:,While schedule severe delay, the original performance measurement baseline not applicable,Be careful, since the historical data will be lost.,成本管理,（Cost Management）,Whats cost management?,Including:,Initiate the project,Estimating,Organizing,Controlling,Analyzing,Reporting,Forecasting,Taking necessary corrective action when required.,关于成本管理的问题,成本管理的目的？,确保在批准的预算内完成项目的各个过程。,成本管理的方法？,资源计划,、,成本的估算、预算、控制,谁对成本在不同时间有不同的需求？,管理层（实施结果，奖励与识别），买方（不同的合同类型下）,针对不同的管理需要，成本有哪些类型？,可控、不可控；固定、变动；直接、间接,如何控制与管理变更？,纠正措施？,S曲线？挣值？,成本估算技术,（Cost Estimating,Techniques,）,模拟(类比)估算,Analogous Estimating,“top down”; using actual costs from previous project as basis for estimate,Reliable when previous projects are similar and individuals have expertise form of expert judgment,参数模型,Parametric Modeling,uses project characteristics in mathematical models to predict costs (e.g.building houses),Reliable when historical information is accurate, parameters are quantifiable, and model is scalable,2 types: Regression analysis, Learning Curve,从下至上的估算,Bottom Up Estimating,rolling up individual activities into project total smaller work activities have more accuracy,计算机工具,Computerized tools,spreadsheets, software,估算的准确性,(Accuracy of Estimates）,量级估算,Order of Magnitude Estimate:,-25% to 75%;,Without detailed data, Best guess, usually made during Initiation Phase,Other Names: guesstimates, Conceptual, Preliminary,预算估算,Budget Estimate:,-10% to 25%;,More better data, usually made during the Planning phase,Other Names: Appropriation, Control, and Design,确定估算,Definitive Estimate:,-5% to 10%;,Well defined data, usually bottom up.,Other Names: Check, Lump sum, Tender, Post contract changes.,估算的准确性,Cost Estimates:,量级估算,Order of Magnitude (ballpark estimate)：During initial evaluation,预算估算,Budget : Used to obtain funds and project approval.,确定估算,Definitive: Proposals, bid evaluation, contract change etc.,Order of Magnitude,Definitive,Estimate,Budget Estimate,75%,-25%,25%,-10%,10%,-5%,生命周期成本（Life cycle costing,）,开发成本,Development cost,生产成本 Production cost,运维成本 Operating/ Maintenance cost,处置成本 Discard cost,Disposal cost while product passed its point of usefulness. (e.g. 电池，化学品 etc.),Time Value of Money,PV = amount of payment in N years divided by (1 + interest),n,NPV=Sum of PV of inflow and outflow,NPV0, go,NPV=0, consider,NPVAC，节约；,EVBV，超前；,EVBV，滞后。,ETC指从今以后一段时间; EAC指工作结束那个点。,Quality 质量,Quality:,实体中与它满足明确需要和隐含需要的能力相关的所有特性的总和。Totality of characteristics of an entity that bear on its ability to satisfy stated or implied needs.,Five misunderstandings about quality:,Quality means goodness or luxury.,Quality is intangible and not measurable.,Quality is Expensive.,Quality problem is originated by workers.,Quality originate in quality department.,区别质量与等级：如酒店星级,区别质量与镀金（Gold plating）,质量目标 Quality Goals,质量的目标是：,适合于使用Fitness for use. (产品或服务能否使用？Is the product or service capable of being used?),适合于目的Fitness for purpose. (产品或服务达到了设计目标？Does the product or service meet its intended purpose?),顾客满意 Customer satisfaction. (产品或服务满足了顾客的期望？Does the product or service meet the customers expectations?),符合需求 Conformance to the requirements. (产品或服务是否符合要求？Does the product or service conform to the requirements?),质量责任 Responsibility for Quality,高层管理,Top management,负责组织的质量。,Responsible for Quality of the Organization,项目经理,Project manager,负责项目的质量。,Responsible for Quality of the project,Individual employee,负责其所做工作的质量。,Responsible for the tasks they performed,Quality Planning 质量计划,PMBOK8.1.1,确定与项目有关的质量标准并确定达到标准的方法。,质量政策（Quality policy）,有组织的最高层正式发布的关于质量的总宗旨和总方向。,如果组织没有正式质量政策，项目团队应该为项目指定质量政策。,项目团队有责任确保干系人全面获知质量政策。,范围说明（Scope statement）,产品描述（Product description）,标准和规范（Standard and regulation）,实验设计 Design of Experiments,PMBOK8.1.2.4,一种统计方法，帮助识别哪些因素将影响某种变量。,多用于项目产品上。如：汽车设计中确定哪种悬置与车轮的搭配效果最好，并且价位合理。,项目中的用途,成,本与进度tradeoff：,高级工程师的费用高但用时少，低级工程师则相反。将高级和低级工程师进行多种组合，已确定最佳。,Quality Cost 质量成本,PMBOK8.1.2.5,质量成本指为了达到产品/服务质量而进行的全部工作所发生的所有成本。包括符合要求的成本和不符合要求的成本。(,Cost of,Conformance/ non-conformance,),典型项目一般设定项目价值的,3-5%,作为质量管理的成本。,质量成本类型,Quality Cost Category:,预防成本,Prevention Cost,- cost to plan and execute a project so that it will be error-free,鉴定成本,Appraisal Cost,- cost of evaluating the processes and the outputs of the processes to ensure the product is error-free,内部失败（故障）成本,Internal Failure Cost,- cost incurred to correct an identified defect before the customer receives the product,外部失败（故障）成本,External Failure Cost,- cost incurred due to errors detected by the customer. This includes warranty cost, field service personnel training cost, complaint handling, and future business losses.,测量与检测设备成本,Measurement and Test Equipment,- capital cost of equipment used to perform prevention and appraisal activities.,QA and QC Comparison,质量保证(,QA): 在质量体系中实施的全部有计划、有系统的活动，以提供满足项目相关标准的信心。,