国际金融chap2(14thedition).ppt

1,UnderstandingForeignExchange2PaymentsAmongNations3TheForeignExchangeMarket4ForwardExchangeandInternationalFinancialInvestment5WhatDeterminesExchangeRates?6GovernmentPoliciesTowardtheForeignExchangeMarket7InternationalLendingandFinancialCrises,PartOne,CHAPTERTWO,PaymentsamongNations国际收支,3,Thischapterexaminestheframeworkusedtosummarizeacountrysinternationaltransactions.,4,Frameworkofchapter2,Accountingprinciples记账原则Acountrysbalanceofpayments一国的国际收支Themacromeaningofthecurrentaccountbalance经常账户余额的宏观意义Themacromeaningoftheoverallbalance总余额的宏观意义,5,BalanceofPayments国际收支,Balanceofpaymentsarethesetofaccountsrecordingallflowsofvaluebetweenanationsresidentsandtheresidentsoftherestoftheworldduringaperiodoftime.p13国际收支：国际收支是指一国的居民在一定时期内（一年、一季度、一月）与他国居民之间的经济交易的系统记录。BalanceofPaymentsStatement:国际收支平衡表Figure2.1,6,Accountingprinciples,Acredititem(+):acountrymustbepaid;paymentbyaforeignerintothecountry.,Adebititem(-):acountrymustpay;paymentbythecountrytoaforeigner.,ExportsofgoodsPurchasesbyforeignersinthiscountryForeignersinvestinginthecountrysbonds,ImportsofgoodsPurchasesfromforeigncountriesPurchasesbyinvestorsinthiscountryfromforeigners,7,Acountrysbalanceofpayments,Threemajorpartsofacountrysbalanceofpayments:,Currentaccount（经常账户）,Financialaccount（金融账户）,Officialinternationalreserves（官方国际储备）,8,Currentaccount经常账户,Thecurrentaccountincludesalldebitandcredititemsthatareexportsandimportsofgoodsandservices,incomereceiptsandincomepayments,andgifts.,9,Currentaccount,goodsandservice,income,unilateraltransfer单方面转移,Paymentsandreceiptsonforeignfinancialassets,likeinterest,dividends(股息)andotherclaims(债权).,Giftsthecountrymakesandreceives,Figure2.1,Goodsandserviceimportsandexports,10,Thenetvalueofflowsofgoods,services,income,andunilateraltransfersisthecurrentaccountbalance.Currentaccountbalance(CA)经常账户差额商品贸易差额、劳务差额加上收入净额和无偿转移收支净额之和。,Positivebalance:Surplus(盈余)Negativebalance:Deficit(赤字),11,Goodsandservicebalance,oftencalledtradebalance(贸易差额),isthenetvalueofexportsandimportsofgoodsandservices.Itisaimportantbalancewithinthecurrentaccount.,12,贸易逆差和顺差,贸易顺差贸易的双方互相买卖各种货物，互相进口与出口，其中的差额，对甲方来说，就叫作贸易顺差，反之，对乙方来说，就叫贸易逆差。一般就贸易双方的利益来讲，其中得到贸易顺差的一方是占便宜的一方，而得到贸易逆差的一方则是吃亏的一方。贸易顺差越多并不一定好，过高的贸易顺差，意味着本国经济的增长比过去几年任何时候都更依赖于外部需求，对外依存度过高。,13,Contd,如中国，巨额的贸易顺差带来了外汇储备的膨胀，给人民币带来了更大的升值压力，也给国际上贸易保护主义势力以口实，认为巨额顺差反映的是人民币被低估。这增加了人民币升值压力和金融风险，为人民币汇率机制改革增加了成本和难度。贸易逆差反映该国当年在对外贸易中处于不利地位。一国政府当局应当设法避免长期出现贸易逆差，因为大量逆差将致使国内资源外流，对外债务增加。这种状况同样会影响国民经济正常运行。,Note:wearenotsayingwhichoneisgoodorbad,14,Reading,ChinastradesurpluswithUSmisread视频：中国贸易顺差总量收窄对美升高,15,Financialaccount金融账户,Financialaccountreportstheprincipalamountsonlyofassetstraded(privatecapitalflows).指用于记录各机构单位（部门或经济总体）在一定时期所发生的各种金融交易的账户。,Pleasenote:Anyflowsofearningsonforeignassetsarereportedinthecurrentaccount.,16,Contd,Varietiesofprivatecapitalflows,Directinvestment直接投资lendingto,orpurchasesofownershipin,Internationalportfolioinvestment国际证券投资purchasesofbondsandstocks,Financialaccount,P15,Debititem?Credititem?,Capitaloutflow,Capitalinflow,17,Financialaccountbalance(FA)金融账户差额,Thenetvalueofflowsoffinancialassetsandsimilarclaims(excludingofficialinternationalreserveassetflows)istheprivatefinancialaccountbalance（FA）.,Figure2.1p15,18,Officialinternationalreserves(OR)官方国际储备,Officialinternationalreservesassetsaremoney-likeassetsthatareheldbygovernmentsandthatarerecognizedbygovernmentsasfullyacceptableforpaymentsbetweenthem.,Gold,Foreignexchangeassets,(e.g.U.S.Treasurybonds),Specialdrawingrights(SDRs)inIMF,Figure2.1p15,19,Addthethreemajorpartsofacountrysbalanceofpaymentstogether,Accordingtodouble-entrybookkeeping,positiveitems+negativeitems=0,20,三项之和不为零原因是统计误差和遗漏，经常是资本地下出逃。估计中国每年资金外逃6000亿RMB（如贪官外逃所携带的资金），占GDP的6%，几乎吃掉中国经济的增长率。,21,StatisticalDiscrepancy统计误差,Itisaitemcreatedtomaketheaccountsbalanceandtowarnusthatsomethingwasmissed.Figure2.1noteap15,22,TheCAhasseveralmeanings.1.CA=If经常帐户、金融帐户和官方国际储备之间的关系。理论上三者之和为零。则（CA=FAOR）,THEMACROMEANINGOFTHECURRENTACCOUNTBALANCE,23,Financialaccount+Officialinternationalreserve,Netflowsofinternationalfinancialinvestment(privateandofficialfinancialinvestment),Netforeigninvestment(If)净国外投资,CA=If,Currentaccountbalance,Contd,24,Contd,CA=SIdAcountrycandotwothingswithitsnationalsavings:S=Id+Ifsothat,CA=SId,25,Contd,CA=YEAcountryscurrentaccountbalancealsoislinkedtodomesticproduction,income,andexpenditure.Y=C+Id+G+(XM),商品和劳务的生产=消费+投资政府支出贸易差额E=C+Id+G,对商品和劳务总支出=消费+投资政府支出,Nationalincome,Expenditure,26,收入的四部门模型。四部门包括家庭、企业、政府和国外部门。,居民户,企业,商品或劳务,货币（消费C）,提供生产要素,货币（工资或利息）,金融机构,储蓄S,投资I,政府,税收T,支出G,国外部门,国外企业购买（出口）,向国外企业购买（进口）,27,Contd,Therefore,Y=E+(XM),andCA=(XM)approximately,-thedifferencebetweenthevalueofthecountrysexportsandimportsofgoodsandservices.sothatCA=YE,28,Meaningofcurrentaccountbalancep20,Note:wearenotsayingwhichoneisgoodorbad,29,Theseidentitieshelpusseewhatmustbechangedifthecurrentaccountbalanceistobechanged.Theidentitiesalsohelpustounderstandwhatforcesmightbecausingchangesinthecurrentaccountbalance.,Figure2.2,30,IfCAisindeficit,thenwhatcouldwedo?e.g.IncreaseY,ordecreaseE.,31,Theoverallbalanceshouldindicatewhetheracountrysbalanceofpaymentshasachievedanoverallpatternthatissustainableovertime.Officialsettlementsbalance(官方结算差额)Currentaccountbalance+FinancialaccountbalanceB=CA+FAp15figure2.1noteb,THEMACROMEANINGOFTHEOVERALLBALANCEp23,32,因为所有项目最终差额必须为0，所以官方结算差额(总差额）的不平衡必须用官方储备资产（OR）来弥补，因此，B+OR=0IfB0，surplus,accumulationofOR.B0，deficit,decreaseofOR.,33,国际收支逆差的影响,外国投资者与本国投资者持有本币的信心将会极大地削弱，随着外国投资者与本国投资者大量抛出本币或本币表示的资产，本币汇率会面临着较大的下跌压力。如果该国货币当局不愿接受本币贬值的后果，就需要对外汇市场进行干预，即动用外汇储备抛出外币收回本币。后果：耗竭储备，引发危机,34,国际收支顺差的影响,国际收支顺差促进经济增长，增加了外汇储备，增强了综合国力，提高对外融资能力和引进外资能力本币持续坚挺，出口受到影响。不利于发展国际经济关系。一国的国际收支出现大量的顺差，意味着有关国家国际收支发生逆差，常常表现为出口和进口的失衡，因而容易引起贸易摩擦，影响国际经济关系。20世纪80年代美国和日本的贸易摩擦、21世纪初我国和美国、欧盟国家的贸易争端，都是典型的例子。,35,Question,“Acountryisbetteroffrunningacurrentaccountsurplusratherthanacurrentaccountdeficit.”Doyouagreeordisagree?Homework:P27Q8,36,Disagree.Onemeaningofacurrentaccountsurplusisthatthecountryisexportingmoregoodsandservicesthanitisimporting.Onemighteasilyjudgethatthisisnotgoodthecountryisproducinggoodsandservicesthatareexported,butthecountryisnotatthesametimegettingtheimportsofgoodsandservicesthatwouldallowitdomoreconsumptionanddomesticinvestment.Inthiswayacurrentaccountdeficitmightbeconsideredgoodtheextraimportsallowthecountrytoconsumeandinvestdomesticallymorethanthevalueofitscurrentproduction.Anothermeaningofacurrentaccountsurplusisthatthecountryisengaginginforeignfinancialinvestmentitisbuildingupitsclaimsonforeigners,andthisaddstonationalwealth.Thissoundsgood,butasnotedaboveitcomesatthecostofforegoing（放弃）currentdomesticpurchasesofgoodsandservices.,37,Acurrentaccountdeficitisthecountryrunningdown（减少）itsclaimsonforeignersorincreasingitsindebtedness（债务）toforeigners.Thissoundsbad,butitcomeswiththebenefitofhigherlevelsofcurrentdomesticexpenditure.Differentcountriesatdifferenttimesmayweighthebalanceofthesecostsandbenefitsdifferently,sothatwecannotsimplysaythatacurrentaccountsurplusisbetterthanacurrentaccountdeficit.,38,Chinaseconomy：NotmadeinChinaFeb11th2009,FromEChinasexportsdivebutitstradesurplusgrowsIMPORTStoChinaplungedinJanuary,signallingthatdemandisshrinkingalarmingly:theyfellby43.1%comparedwithayearearlier,worsethanforecastanddoublethedeclineinDecember.ButChinastradesurplus,at$39.1billion,isoneofthebiggestonrecordbecauseahugetumbleinexportsof17.5wasdwarfedbyfallingimports.ArecoveryinChineseexportsisunlikelyastheworldslidesdeeperintoaneconomicslumpbutimportsmaywellpickupChinahasresumedimportingironoreafterrunningdownstocksinrecentmonths.Chinaseconomycouldalsogetaboostfromabiggovernmentstimuluspackage.,39,AFP,Readerscomments,