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Consumer Foodservice - ChinaEuromonitor International : Country Market InsightOctober 2008Consumer foodserviceChinaList of Contents and TablesExecutive Summary1Consumer Foodservice Witnesses Another Year of Fast Growth1Development of A Coffee-drinking Culture Driving the Development of Cafs1Fast Food Operators Make Up the Top Three in the Consumer Foodservice Market1Chained Operators Continue To Outperform Independents1Growth To Remain Strong As Existing Players Expand and New Players Enter1Key Trends and Developments12008 Olympics: Expansion Opportunity for Chained Players1Brighter Prospects for International Foodservice Franchisees2Rising Operational Costs Challenge Operators in Consumer Foodservice3Consolidation Being Seen in Fast Food While Fsr Is More Fragmented4Retail Location To Play A More Important Role4Market Data5Table 1Units, Transactions and Value Sales in Consumer Foodservice: 2002-20075Table 2Units, Transactions and Value Sales in Consumer Foodservice: % Growth 2002-20075Table 3Consumer Foodservice by Independent Vs Chained Outlets: Units/Outlets 20076Table 4Consumer Foodservice by Eat in Vs Takeaway 20076Table 5Consumer Foodservice by Food Vs Drinks Split 20076Table 6Sales in Consumer Foodservice by Location 2002-20076Table 7Leading Chained Consumer Foodservice Brands by Number of Units 20077Table 8Chained Consumer Foodservice Company Shares 2003-20078Table 9Chained Consumer Foodservice Brand Shares 2004-20079Table 10Forecast Units, Transactions and Value Sales in Consumer Foodservice: 2007-201210Table 11Forecast Units, Transactions and Value Sales in Consumer Foodservice: % Growth 2007-201211Published Data Comparisons11Table 12Consumer Expenditure on Consumer Foodservice Year 2002-200711Definitions11Summary 1Research Sources11 Euromonitor InternationalPage iConsumer foodserviceChinaCONSUMER FOODSERVICE IN CHINAEXECUTIVE SUMMARYConsumer Foodservice Witnesses Another Year of Fast GrowthDuring 2007, consumer foodservice in China continued to see a higher growth rate compared to other countries in Asia. A fast-growing domestic economy has resulted in rising disposable incomes, which enables consumers to visit consumer foodservice outlets more often. All consumer foodservice formats saw an increase in sales and number of outlets. Consumers have also been enticed by the growing availability of foreign cuisines and dishes. Hence, pizza 100% home delivery/takeaway and ice cream fast food witnessed the highest growth rates in both value terms and the number of outlets, supported by the operators creativeness in offering new eating experiences.Development of A Coffee-drinking Culture Driving the Development of CafsChina is a traditionally tea-drinking country, with the active penetration of the US coffee giant Starbucks in 1999 and the Taiwanese UBC brand, a growing number of local consumers, white-collar workers and the younger generation in particular, favour a cup of cappuccino and latte as their choice. The promotion of the McDonalds coffee series also shows that the potential growth is not limited to high-end consumers, but to a broad class of local consumers.Fast Food Operators Make Up the Top Three in the Consumer Foodservice MarketThe top three players in the consumer foodservice market in terms of foodservice sales value are all chained fast food operators Yum! Restaurants China, McDonalds China Development Co Ltd and Ting Hsin International Group. Fast outlet expansion by leading fast food operators is the key driver to their leading shares. On the other hand, the shares of the leading full-service operators are declining with the shutting down of some franchised outlets.Chained Operators Continue To Outperform IndependentsAs in 2006, all areas of the foodservice industry continued to see a rise in the share of chained units compared with independents. Much of this is due to the rapid development of franchising in foodservice, which resulted in a large number of start-ups. Over the forecast period, chained companies will grow much faster than independent foodservice players and, as long as the chained outlets are growing, the market will move to a more consolidated state.Growth To Remain Strong As Existing Players Expand and New Players EnterAlthough consumer foodservice market growth is expected to slow down in the forecast period, it will still remain strong. Outlet expansion by the existing players, especially the leading fast food operators, will continue to contribute to the strong growth in the consumer foodservice market. Trade sources indicate that fast food is far from maturity, although KFC already has over 2,000 outlets and McDonalds has almost 1,000 outlets in the Chinese market. New entrants will also push the market to go further. In January 2008, the famous doughnuts seller Dunkin Donuts announced plans to open 100 franchise locations in Shanghai over the next 10 years. The famous Latin American chained fast food operator Campero also opened its first outlet in Shanghai in May 2007. With more new world-leading consumer foodservice brands entering the Chinese market, the Chinese consumer foodservice market is expected to keep growing in the forecast period.KEY TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS2008 Olympics: Expansion Opportunity for Chained PlayersThe hosting of the Beijing Olympics was also expected to be the most important step in Chinas tourism industry growth as it put itself in the spotlight for international travellers. International consumer foodservice chains were making the 2008 Olympics a focal point for expansion in China, but in the true spirit of the Games competition was also expected to be fierce. The major international players were preparing for an influx of visitors and heightened cross-cultural interest around the event, which was expected to boost demand for their brands. While the main opportunities lie in Beijing, the Games were also expected to open doors for expansion in the other host cities Qingdao, Hong Kong, Tianjin, Shanghai, Shenyang and Qinhuangdao.Current ImpactAs an official sponsor, McDonalds was using the Games to redouble its efforts to catch up with Yum! Brands, as China is one of the few markets where McDonalds lags behind. McDonalds, however, publicly stated that the golden arches would hang over more than a thousand outlets, of which half will be drive-thrus, before the delivery of the Olympic flame to Beijing. Yum!, McDonalds, Starbucks and a host of smaller operators, including Dunkin Brands, Papa Johns International, La Bote Pizza and Cold Stone Creamery, all announced expansion plans. Many new stores (many of which were fast food drive-thrus) opened in Olympic host cities in the run-up to the Games; Starbucks even acquired the Hong Kong-based company that holds a controlling interest in the chains licensee for Beijing and Tianjin to allow it to expand more rapidly during the run-up to the Games in 2008.OutlookAlthough the impact of 2008 Olympics could prove to be specific to the year of the event, the general market environment of foodservice will continue to be improved and developed, especially in the food safety and facilities aspects. The positive impact of the Olympics is likely to continue into the short to medium term at least, as a large number of visitors were expected to travel to Beijing, which should have further boosted the foodservice market. The high standard of food quality, safety and service will also encourage consumers to go out for dinner.Future ImpactAlthough the Beijing Olympics should have provided an attractive platform for chains to launch their brands in China, operators needed to be ready for tough competition from local operators, particularly in the long term, and challenges in establishing appropriate marketing connections between their brands and the Games. Even McDonalds as a sponsor faced no easy task. A survey found that McDonalds ranked 27th among brands that the Chinese people associated with the Olympic rings, despite the burger giants long-running association with the Olympics, according to a report by the Wall Street Journal. It added that this was because the Chinese media was closed to foreign content for so long that few consumers make the connection.Brighter Prospects for International Foodservice FranchiseesOn 6 February 2007 the Chinese government signed a new franchise regulation that gives a clearer framework for opening franchises in China. The decree came into effect on 1 May and should ease expansion for both domestic and international consumer foodservice chains already present in China, as well as smoothing the path for international chains looking to enter the market, which is more attractive than ever, but by no means risk-fee.Current ImpactFor international chains, China is one of the most attractive growth markets in consumer foodservice. In urban areas of China, the younger generation is hungry for Western brands and the 2008 Beijing Olympics offered a promising starting point for Western chains wanting to enter the market. The Games were expected to be accompanied by intensified demand for international products. Some leading multinational specialist coffee shops players such as Starbucks and Costa were expected to step up their expansion in China. Moreover, the potential of this market also attracts new entries. In early 2008, Espressamente illy, the specialist Italian coffee shop, opened its first outlet in Shanghai, and was planning to open six outlets in Shanghai and Beijing by the end of 2008.OutlookThe biggest opportunities for Western chains are in fast food and cafs/bars, particularly specialist coffee shops. This is because coffee shops and much of the branded fast food sector are Western in origin and major players such as Yum! Brands, McDonalds and Starbucks have paved the way for acceptance of international concepts in these sectors. In full-service restaurants, chains face tough competition from independent players and smaller local chains due to strong traditions of distinctive cuisines in different areas of China. Aside from local competition, one of the biggest dilemmas international chains must address is whether to adapt their products to local tastes. Chains that do not adapt products risk a niche status and loss of custom if the novelty appeal of their “ethnic” cuisine fades. Chains that do adapt menu items must consider regional variations in taste preferences, with regard to both spices and core ingredients.Future ImpactWith more multinational brands being present in consumer foodservice in China, this will continue to increase the level of competition and may, in turn, increase the level of quality of cuisine. Fast food and cafs/bars are predicted to be the formats in which maximum international brand presence is expected over the forecast period. For both of these, international players would be likely to benefit from bringing in their standardised processes, procedures and technology, which the domestic operators lack. The growing consumer demand for convenience would also aid the growth of these two formats in China. These influences are expected to be less significant in the case of full-service restaurants, where domestic players have already established their presence. Most multinational companies are expected to begin by setting up outlets in some selected cities in order to test the waters for acceptance of their products and prices before moving on to establish outlets in the second- and third-tier cities.Rising Operational Costs Challenge Operators in Consumer FoodserviceAt the end of 2006 and into 2007 the increase in the cost of raw materials such as poultry, sugar and oils and in the cost of sources of energy such as gas and water led to increased operational costs within consumer foodservice. The increases in labour and rental costs were significant as well, and also directly contributed to a general price increase. As a result, players in consumer foodservice face a dilemma between controlling their profit margins and sustaining their existing unit prices for food products.Current ImpactIn 2007, the situation appeared to worsen as many players started to reflect the pressure of rising costs in their product pricing or product sizing. One of the common tactics among independent operators and those of street stalls/kiosks was to reduce their portions, while other consumer foodservice operators decided to increase their pricing. For example, McDonalds raised the pricing three times in May, August and September of 2007, mainly due to the rising cost of materials.OutlookPrices of raw materials are expected to increase further over the forecast period. In January 2008, Chinas consumer price index hit a record high of 7.1%. According to National Statistics Bureau, food prices jumped to an 18.2% annual rate in January, grain prices rose 5.7% and cooking oil prices increased by 37.1%. Thus, consumer foodservice is expected to suffer further pressure with regard to operational costs and the cost of raw materials over the forecast period. In order to achieve greater control over operational costs and to maintain healthy profit margins, product and service quality will be of great importance, especially to leading chained players.Future ImpactAfter the first price increase in 2007, both McDonalds and KFC increased the price of some products by RMB0.50 to RMB1.50 again in March 2008. As price is still sensitive to the majority of Chinese consumers, especially to students and low income people, those leading chained players may offer more “economy” meal sets or organise promotions in order to offset the price rise. On the other hand, since most packaged food products are expected to experience a rising price trend, consumers are likely to accept reasonable increases in the range of items in foodservice outlets.Consolidation Being Seen in Fast Food While Fsr Is More FragmentedFast food and full-service restaurants are heading in contrasting directions in China, with fast food becoming more consolidated, while full-service restaurants is becoming more fragmented. Leading fast food operators, including Yum! Restaurants China, McDonalds China Development Co Ltd and Ting Hsin International Group, are all maintaining fast expansion in terms of outlet numbers. In contrast, leading full-service restaurants such as Xiao Fei Yang and Xiao Wei Yang are both seeing shrinkage in their number of outlets.Changing menus is the main reason for leading fast food operators to remain fresh and competitive to consumers. Looking at the examples of KFC and McDonalds, new products are commonly launched every month on average. Continuous new launches help these “old” brands always appear fresh to consumers, which favours consolidation in fast food. Compared to fast food brands, full-service brands commonly have a set menu and put less effort into renewing the menu. Consumers will not be so loyal to the same food again and again. Hence, the new restaurants with new flavours will be more attractive and are leading to FSR becoming more fragmented.Current ImpactConsolidation of fast food is good for leading brands as their shares increase. With rising sales at the leading fast food brands, including KFC, McDonalds and Dicos, more people are seeing the high profit levels available and want to be their franchisees; as a result, franchising outlets of these leading brands are fast expanding in the national Chinese market. By the end of 2007, over 2,000 outlets of KFC were widespread in China and over 870 outlets of McDonalds were operating.New entrants and small restaurants had more opportunities in full-service restaurants. Consumers are always looking to try new and fresh dishes in full-service restaurants. Therefore, creative ideas on designing menus and restaurant dcors are the most important consideration for new full-service restaurant operators.OutlookThe overall consumer foodservice market will continue to be fragmented, with “others” holding a value share of some 97% of total sales. However, it is expected to become more consolidated among the leading brands not only in fast food but also in FSR. Strong capital support will be the main driver for the leading brands to gain bigger sales shares. Leading fast food brands such as KFC, McDonalds, Dicos or Ajisen Ramen all belong to the listed companies. Leading full-service companies are also trying to get listed. After Quanjude was successfully listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in November 2007, the leading full-service brand Xiao Fei Yang was also due to be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in June 2008. With stronger capital investment, more outlets are expected to cover a wider market in China and attract more consumers. Therefore, the consumer foodservice market is going to become more consolidated over the forecast period.Future ImpactWith more consolidation of the consumer foodservice market, competition within the leading brands will be much fiercer in the forecast period. For example KFC and McDonalds will keep indulging in direct competition in the future, such as in the launch of breakfast menus, 24-hour opening, and drive-thru outlets. Outlet expansion of leading brands will not stop in the forecast period.Retail Location To Play A More Important RoleThe retail location is now playing a more important role in the consumer foodservice market. With increasing disposable incomes, Chinese people are spending more time and money on shopping in department stores and supermarkets, hence, pedestrian flow in retail locations is higher than in previous years. On the other hand, outlet expansion of retail channels is also doing a favour to the expansion of retail consumer foodservice outlets. According to Euromonitor International research, hypermarket outlet numbers continued to grow by 15% in 2007, while supermarket outlets also grew by over 9% and more than 220 new department stores were opened in China. Therefore, more and more foodservice outlets are being located in retail locations.Current ImpactAlong with more outlets located in retail channels, the average foodservice price per transaction is increasing. Compared to the stand-alone location, consumer foodservice outlets located in retail channels are generally more expensive, as the rental costs of these outlets are relatively higher than stand-alone outlets, especially in department stores, where pedestrian flow is much higher than in stand-alone locations.Despite the higher prices, consumers are still showing a greater interest in restaurants located in retail channels. Rising disposable income makes more people able to afford this. Instead of price considerations, convenience and food hygiene are greater concerns for people now. As the retail channels such as department stores or hypermarkets are commonly located in the centre of a city or at least in places with good traffic conditions, it will be more convenient for people to spend less time getting to the restaurants. In addition, better food hygiene levels in retail locations are also boosting sales in retail outlets. Due to regular occurrences of food safety scares consumers are more willing to eat in restaurants located in retail channels, where sanitation is generally considered to be better than in stand-alone outlets.OutlookThe retail location is expected to become more popular among consumer foodservice operators and is predicted to record a CAGR of 16% in the forecast period. Although, the forecast period growth of hypermarkets, supermarkets
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