温-全球化危机与生态文明-0422-li

单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,2013/4/20,#,全球化危机转嫁与中国生态文明建设,Global Crisis Cost Transferring,and“Eco-Civilization Reconstruction in China”,温铁军,Prof.Wen Tiejun,中国人民大学可持续发展高等研究院,西南大学中国乡村建设学院,Executive Dean,Institute,of Advanced Studies for Sustainability,RUC,School of Rural Reconstruction,SWU,2013.4,1,Contradiction insideCapital-Globalization,资本全,球,球化内,在,在矛盾,TheChange fromIndustrializationtoFinancialization,从产业,化,化到金,融,融化的,结,结构转,变,变,Capital Market,资本市场,Enterprises,实业,Institutional Investment,机构投资,Labor+Social Security (1+0.5=1.5),劳动力,+,社会保障,Deficits&Debts,赤字与债务,Transfer to,Overseas created unemployment,产业海外转移造成企业向政府缴纳社保下降和失业增加造成社会动乱,Unemployment&Street Violent,失业 与街头政治,QE1QEn,量化宽松,1-n,Government Redistribution,政府再分配,Interestfrom overseas flowintowestcapital market,海外产,业,业收益,回,回流西,方,方资本,市,市场促,进,进金融,化,化,QE1-ncreated overfinancetobenefitgiant capital,量化宽,松,松导致,金,金融过,剩,剩大鳄,获,获利,Society,社会,Economy,经济,Politics,政治,支撑现,代,代化上,层,层建筑,的,的社会,制,制度及,其,其直接,成,成本,发达国,家,家政府,的,的总收,支,支及社,会,会福利,支,支出占,GDP,的比重,（,（,%,）,Developedcountriesgov.revenue&expenses,%ofsocialexpensetoGDP,收入,/GDP,Revenue/GDP,支出,/,GDP,Exp/GDP,社会福利支出,/GDP,Welfare/GDP,社会福利,/,总支,出,Welfare/Exp,Austria,*,48.13,48.92,23.44,47.9,Belgium,48.90,50.14,23.33,46.5,Cyrus,44.31,40.97,12.28,30.0,Finland,52.95,48.28,17.55,36.4,France,49.27,51.93,23.25,44.8,Germany,43.76,43.97,24.41,55.5,Greece,40.58,47.20,19.07,40.4,Ireland,34.87,37.70,13.85,36.7,Italy,46.03,48.36,20.42,42.2,Luxembourg,43.12,38.34,19.39,50.6,Netherlands,46.58,45.22,20.18,44.6,Portugal,43.25,46.68,19.93,42.7,Spain,36.77,38.55,14.94,38.8,Australia,33.64,31.23,9.45,30.3,Canada,39.09,38.48,7.52,19.5,China,.R.:,HK,*,22.80,16.92,4.39,25.9,Denmark,55.40,51.87,16.40,31.6,Iceland,44.27,55.20,6.08,11.0,Israel,41.92,43.75,9.31,21.3,Japan,35.16,35.66,17.87,50.1,New Zealand,*,39.95,35.45,10.01,28.2,Norway,58.71,38.65,13.63,35.3,San Marino,*,46.95,46.73,12.65,27.1,Singapore,21.73,15.44,.,Sweden,55.59,52.28,18.23,34.9,Switzerland,*,36.83,31.42,8.68,27.6,UK,42.55,46.15,13.17,28.5,United States,32.22,37.53,12.87,34.3,问题讨,论,论：构,建,建西方,现,现代化,上,上层建,筑,筑的制,度,度成本,是,是否可,能,能转嫁,？,？如果,可,可能，,是,是对内,还,还是对,外,外转嫁,？,？怎样,转,转嫁？,Discussion:caninstitutionalcostforsetting upwest-centricsuperstructuretransferout?Andhow?,3,DoubleSupply fromPhysicalProductionCountry to theWest,全球化,时,时代发,达,达国家,与,与发展,中,中实体,经,经济国,家,家的关,系,系,金融服,务,务,FinancialService,自由贸,易,易,Free Trade,资本市,场,场,Capital Market,符号经,济,济,Intangible Econ.,经常项,目,目逆差,Current Account,deficit,资本,项,项目,顺,顺差,CapitalAccount,Surplus,发展,中,中国,家,家,Developing,Country,发达,国,国家,DevelopedCountry,实质,经,经济,Physical,Economy,资源,环,环境,赤,赤字,/,不可,持,持续,Unsustainablegrowthw/natural,resources&environmentdeficits,低价,劳,劳动,力,力,/,失业,，,，社,会,会动,乱,乱,Lowincomelabor/unemployment,arousedsocialconflict,外汇,再,再投,资,资,ForeignReserve,rei,nvestment,一般,商,商品,与,与原,材,材料,出,出口,Manufacture/Nature,resourcese,xport,转轨,Transition,资本,市,市场,CapitalMarket,4,双输,：,：发达,国,国家金融,扩,扩张,导,导致,发,发展,中,中国,家,家宏,观,观调,控,控两,难,难,L,ose-Lose:FinancialExpansioninNorth&MacroAdjustmentDilemmainSouth,Institutionalinvest,机构,投,投资,CapitalMarket,资本,市,市场,WorldPhysicalEcon.,世界,实,实体,经,经济,消费,需,需求,Domesticdemand,FutureMarket,能源,、,、原,材,材料,和,和粮,食,食,期货及衍,生,生品市场,Overseas,Investment,海外投资,产业竞争,Industrycompetition,投资或战,略,略收购,Overseainve.,低收益,资金析出,Capitalout,投机品市,场,场,speculation,宏观调控,两难困境,高收益,Highreturn,中国实体,经,经济,CN physicalEcon,推高资金,价,价格,Higher capital price,高收益,Highreturn,国际贸易,Int.Trade,高利贷,Usury,北方发达,国,国家,North C.,中国,独木难支,CN alonecan,t savesituation,推高基础,商,商品价格,Higher PPI&CPI,替代外需,Replace,export,基础设施,建设,infra-construction,N,万亿,国债,+,地方债,Trillions Gov.Debts,低利率,+,低通胀,Lowinterestrate&inflation,金融竞争,Financecompetition,南方发展,中,中国家,South C.,QE1QEn,量化宽松,n,5,塑料制品业,Plastic,纺织业,Textile,通信设备,、,、计算机,及,及其他电,子,子设备制造,Electron,（单位：,亿,亿元）,(,数据来源,：,：各行业,主,主营业务,收,收入、利,润,润来自国,家,家统计局,，,，行业出,口,口总额数,据,据来自历,年,年,中国对外,经,经济统计,年,年鉴,),近年来加,工,工出口品,虽,虽然由塑,料,料、纺织,、,、服装、,鞋,鞋帽转变,为,为,通信设备,、,、计算机,及,及其他电,子,子设备,，但仍然,没,没有改变,加,加工业“,两,两头在外,”,”的局面,，,，仍处于,“,“微笑曲,线,线”的底,端,端。,外向型经,济,济的微笑曲线,SmilingCurve of Export-Oriented Economy,6,55%export fromChina created byforeigninvested enterprises,中国,2010,年对外出口中外,资,资企业占比达,55%,在中国,3.2,万亿美元外汇储,备,备中，所积累的,贸,贸易顺差只有,1.8,万亿美元。另外,主,主要是流入的,FDI,，那算是负债，收益随时流出,主要经济体经常,账,账户余额对世界,生,生产总值的比重,Current-account Balance as a%of World Gross Product,7,中国农业占比下,降,降趋势但作为第,三,三产业仍有发展,前,前景,Industry Importance,8,三农新政总投入,6,万亿使乡土中国,成,成为应对全球危,机,机的软着陆载体,6 Trillions Investment in Rural ChinaSupported,Soft Landing,The 1st,The 2nd,Investment Split,The 3rd,三农新政总投入过,7,万亿,Totalrural comprehensive investments,：,$1 trillion since 2003,Grain ProductIncrease,中国用占世界,7%,的耕地和,6%,的水资源养活占,世,世界,20%,的人口,China use 7%land 6%water to feed20%populationof theworld,Only 7%of land(mainly coastal areas)with 6%water ofworld total,large taken byurban for industry,max the3 gapsand mixchances withincreased pollution,中国水土光热资,源,源匹配面积低于,10%,，主要集中在沿,海,海地区,工农业经济和城,市,市也集中在沿海,平,平原；三大差别,必,必然拉大，沿海,城,城市地价必然上,升,升。沙化面积超,过,过,18%,，且每年新增,3500,平方公里；污染,愈,愈益严峻,世界各国二氧化,碳,碳排放,资源约束,-,中国资源环境条,件,件可与西亚和北,非,非比，与美欧不可比,Resources Restriction,9,世界水资源与人,口,口占比,%of Water&populatio