第十二章 风险、资本成本和资本预算PPT课件

,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,McGraw-Hill/Irwin,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.,Click here for title,12-,32,第十二章 风险、资本成本和资本预算,Whats the Big Idea?,Earlier chapters on capital budgeting focused on the appropriate size and timing of cash flows.,This chapter discusses the appropriate discount rate when cash flows are risky.,Invest in project,12.1,The Cost of Equity Capital,Firm withexcess cash,Shareholders Terminal Value,Pay cash dividend,Shareholder invests in financial asset,Because stockholders can reinvest the dividend in risky financial assets, the expected return on a capital-budgeting project should be at least as great as the expected return on a financial asset of comparable risk.,A firm with excess cash can either pay a dividend,or m,ake a capital investment,The Cost of Equity,From the firms perspective, the expected return is the Cost of Equity Capital:,To estimate a firms cost of equity capital, we need to know three things:,The risk-free rate,R,F,The market risk premium,The company beta,Example,Suppose the stock of Stansfield Enterprises, a publisher of PowerPoint presentations, has a beta of 2.5. The firm is 100-percent equity financed.,Assume a risk-free rate of 5-percent and a market risk premium of 10-percent.,What is the appropriate discount rate for an expansion of this firm?,Example (continued),Suppose Stansfield Enterprises is evaluating the following non-mutually exclusive projects. Each costs $100 and lasts one year.,Project,Project,b,Projects Estimated Cash Flows Next Year,IRR,NPV at 30%,A,2.5,$150,50%,$15.38,B,2.5,$130,30%,$0,C,2.5,$110,10%,-$15.38,Using the SML to Estimate the Risk-Adjusted Discount Rate for Projects,An all-equity firm should accept a project whose IRR exceeds the cost of equity capital and reject projects whose IRRs fall short of the cost of capital.,Project,IRR,Firms risk (beta),5%,Good projects,Bad projects,30%,2.5,A,B,C,12.2,Estimation of Beta: Measuring Market Risk,Market Portfolio,- Portfolio of all assets in the economy. In practice a broad stock market index, such as the S&P Composite, is used to,represent,the market.,Beta,- Sensitivity of a stocks return to the return on the market portfolio.,12.2,Estimation of Beta,Theoretically, the calculation of beta is straightforward:,Problems,Betas may vary over time.,The sample size may be inadequate.,Betas are influenced by changing financial leverage and business risk.,Solutions,Problems 1 and 2 (above) can be moderated by more sophisticated statistical techniques.,Problem 3 can be lessened by adjusting for changes in business and financial risk.,Look at average beta estimates of comparable firms in the industry.,Stability of Beta,Most analysts argue that betas are generally stable for firms remaining in the same industry.,Thats not to say that a firms beta cant change.,Changes in product line,Changes in technology,Deregulation,Changes in financial leverage,Using an Industry Beta,It is frequently argued that one can better estimate a firms beta by involving the whole industry.,If you believe that the operations of the firm are similar to the operations of the rest of the industry, you should use the industry beta.,If you believe that the operations of the firm are fundamentally different from the operations of the rest of the industry, you should use the firms beta.,Dont forget about adjustments for financial leverage.,12.3,Determinants of Beta,Business Risk,Cyclicity of Revenues,Operating Leverage,Financial Risk,Financial Leverage,Cyclicality of Revenues,Highly cyclical stocks have high betas.,Empirical evidence suggests that retailers and automotive firms fluctuate with the business cycle.,Transportation firms and utilities are less dependent upon the business cycle.,Note that cyclicality is not the same as variabilitystocks with high standard deviations need not have high betas,.,Movie studios have revenues that are variable, depending upon whether they produce “hits” or “flops”, but their revenues are not especially dependent upon the business cycle.,Operating Leverage,The degree of operating leverage measures how sensitive a firm (or project) is to its fixed costs.,Operating leverage increases as fixed costs rise and variable costs fall.,Operating leverage magnifies the effect of cyclicity on beta.,The degree of operating leverage is given by:,Operating Leverage,Volume,$,Fixed costs,Total costs,EBIT,Volume,Operating leverage increases as fixed costs rise and variable costs fall.,Fixed costs,Total costs,Financial Leverage and Beta,Operating leverage,refers to the sensitivity to the firms fixed costs of,production,.,Financial leverage,is the sensitivity of a firms fixed costs of,financing,.,The relationship between the betas of the firms debt, equity, and assets is given by:,Financial leverage always increases the equity beta relative to the asset beta.,Financial Leverage and Beta: Example,Consider Grand Sport, Inc., which is currently all-equity and has a beta of 0.90.,The firm has decided to lever up to a capital structure of 1 part debt to 1 part equity.,Since the firm will remain in the same industry, its asset beta should remain 0.90.,However, assuming a zero beta for its debt, its equity beta would become twice as large:,12.4,Extensions of the Basic Model,The Firm versus the Project,The Cost of Capital with Debt,The Firm versus the Project,Any projects cost of capital depends on the,use,to which the capital is being putnot the source.,Therefore, it depends on the,risk of the project,and not the risk of the,company,.,Capital Budgeting & Project Risk,A firm that uses one discount rate for all projects may over time increase the risk of the firm while decreasing its value.,Project IRR,Firms risk (beta),r,f,b,FIRM,Incorrectly rejected positive NPV projects,Incorrectly accepted negative NPV projects,Hurdle rate,The SML can tell us why:,Suppose the Conglomerate Company has a cost of capital, based on the CAPM, of 17%. The risk-free rate is 4%; the market risk premium is 10% and the firms beta is 1.3.,17% = 4% + 1.3 14% 4%,This is a breakdown of the companys investment projects:,1/3,Automotive retailer,b,= 2.0,1/3 Computer Hard Drive Mfr.,b,= 1.3,1/3 Electric Utility,b,= 0.6,average,b,of assets = 1.3,When evaluating a new electrical generation investment, which cost of capital should be used?,Capital Budgeting & Project Risk,Capital Budgeting & Project Risk,Project,IRR,Firms risk (beta),17%,1.3,2.0,0.6,r,= 4% + 0.6(14% 4% ) = 10%,10% reflects the opportunity cost of capital on an investment in electrical generation, given the unique risk of the project.,10%,24%,Investments in hard drives or auto retailing should have higher discount rates.,The Cost of Capital with Debt,The Weighted Average Cost of Capital is given by:,It is because interest expense is tax-deductible that we multiply the last term by (1-,T,C,),12.5,Estimating International Papers Cost of Capital,First, we estimate the cost of equity and the cost of debt.,We estimate an equity beta to estimate the cost of equity.,We can often estimate the cost of debt by observing the YTM of the firms debt.,Second, we determine the WACC by weighting these two costs appropriately.,12.5,Estimating IPs Cost of Capital,The industry average beta is 0.82; the risk free rate is 8% and the market risk premium is 9.2%.,Thus the cost of equity capital is,12.5,Estimating IPs Cost of Capital,The yield on the companys debt is 8% and the firm is in the 37% marginal tax rate.,The debt to value ratio is 32%,12.18,percent is Internationals cost of capital. It should be used to discount any project where one believes that the projects risk is equal to the risk of the firm as a whole, and the project has the same leverage as the firm as a whole.,12.6,Reducing the Cost of Capital,What is Liquidity?,Liquidity, Expected Returns and the Cost of Capital,Liquidity and Adverse Selection,What the Corporation Can Do,What is Liquidity?,The idea that the expected return on a stock and the firms cost of capital are positively related to risk is fundamental.,Recently a number of academics have argued that the expected return on a stock and the firms cost of capital are negatively related to the liquidity of the firms shares as well.,The trading costs of holding a firms shares include brokerage fees, the bid-ask spread and market impact costs.,Liquidity, Expected Returns and the Cost of Capital,The cost of trading an illiquid stock reduces the total return that an investor receives.,Investors thus will demand a high expected return when investing in stocks with high trading costs.,This high expected return implies a high cost of capital to the firm.,Liquidity and the Cost of Capital,Cost of Capital,Liquidity,An increase in liquidity,i.e,. a reduction in trading costs, lowers a firms cost of capital.,Liquidity and Adverse Selection,There are a number of factors that determine the liquidity of a stock.,One of these factors is,adverse selection,.,This refers to the notion that traders with better information can take advantage of specialists and other traders who have less information.,The greater the heterogeneity of information, the wider the bid-ask spreads, and the higher the required return on equity.,What the Corporation Can Do,The corporation has an incentive to lower trading costs since this would result in a lower cost of capital.,A stock split would increase the liquidity of the shares.,A stock split would also reduce the adverse selection costs thereby lowering bid-ask spreads.,This idea is a new one and empirical evidence is not yet in.,What the Corporation Can Do,Companies can also facilitate stock purchases through the Internet.,Direct stock purchase plans and dividend reinvestment plans handles on-line allow small investors the opportunity to buy securities cheaply.,The companies can also disclose more information. Especially to security analysts, to narrow the gap between informed and uninformed traders. This should reduce spreads.,