公司战略和净现值

Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,McGraw-Hill/Irwin,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,Click here for title,8-,0,Chapter Outline,8.1,Corporate Strategy and Positive NPV,8.2 Decision Trees,8.3 Sensitivity Analysis,Scenario Analysis,and,Break-Even Analysis,8.4 Options,8.5 Summary and Conclusions,Introduce new products,Apple Corporation and the mouse,Develop core technology,Honda and small engines,Create barrier to entry,Qualcomms patents on proprietary technology,Introduce variations on existing products,Chryslers PT Cruiser,Create product differentiation,Coca-Colaits the real thing,Utilize organizational innovation,Motorola just-in-time inventory management,Exploit a new technology,Yahoo!s use of banner advertisements on the web,Corporate Strategy and Positive NPV,Corporate Strategy and the Stock Market,There should be a connection between the stock market and capital budgeting.,If the firm invests in a positive NPV projects,the firms stock price should go up.,Sometimes the stock market provides negative clues as to a new projects NPV.,Consider AT&Ts repeated attempts to penetrate the computer-manufacturing industry.,8.2,Decision Trees,Allow us to graphically represent the alternatives available to us in each period and the likely consequences of our actions.,Example of Decision Tree,Do not study,Study finance,Open circles represent decisions to be made.,Filled circles represent receipt of information,e.g,.a test score in this class.,The lines leading away from the circles represent the alternatives.,“,C”,“,A”,“,B”,“,F”,“,D”,Stewart Pharmaceuticals,The Stewart Pharmaceuticals Corporation is considering investing in developing a drug that cures the common cold.,A corporate planning group,including representatives from production,marketing,and engineering,has recommended that the firm go ahead with the test and development phase.,This preliminary phase will last one year and cost$1billion.Furthermore,the group believes that there is a 60%chance that tests will prove successful.,If the initial tests are,successful,Stewart Pharmaceuticals can go ahead with full-scale production.This investment phase will cost$1,600 million.Production will occur over the next 4 years.,Stewart Pharmaceuticals NPV of Full-Scale Production following Successful Test,Note that the,NPV,is calculated as of date 1,the date at which the investment of$1,600 million is made.Later we bring this number back to date 0.,Investment,Year 1,Years 2-5,Revenues,$7,000,Variable Costs,(3,000),Fixed Costs,(1,800),Depreciation,(400),Pretax profit,$1,800,Tax(34%),(612),Net Profit,$1,188,Cash Flow,-$1,600,$1,588,Decision Tree for Stewart Pharmaceutical,Do not test,Test,Failure,Success,Do not invest,Invest,Invest,The firm has two decisions to make:,To test or not to test.,To invest or not to invest.,Stewart Pharmaceutical:Decision to Test,Lets move back to the first stage,where the decision boils down to the simple question:should we invest?,The expected payoff evaluated at date 1 is:,The NPV evaluated at date 0 is:,So we should test.,8.3,Sensitivity Analysis,Scenario Analysis,and Break-Even Analysis,Allows us to look the behind the NPV number to see firm our estimates are.,When working with spreadsheets,try to build your model so that you can just adjust variables in one cell and have the NPV calculations key to that.,SensitivityAnalysisandScenario Analysis,In the Stewart Pharmaceutical example,revenueswere projectedto be$7,000,000peryear.,If theyareonly$6,000,000peryear,the NPV fallsto$1,341.64,Alsoknown as“whatif”analysis;weexaminehowsensitivea particularNPVcalculationisto changes in the underlyingassumptions.,Investment,Year 1,Years 2-5,Revenues,$6,000,Variable Costs,(3,000),Fixed Costs,(1,800),Depreciation,(400),Pretax profit,Tax(34%),Net Profit,Cash Flow,-$1,600,SensitivityAnalysis,We can see thatNPVis verysensitive tochangesinrevenues.For example,a14%drop inrevenueleads to a61%dropinNPV,Forevery 1%drop inrevenuewecanexpect roughly a4.25%dropin NPV,ScenarioAnalysis,A variationon sensitivity analysisis scenarioanalysis.,Forexample,thefollowing threescenarios couldapply to Stewart Pharmaceuticals:,Thenextyears eachhaveheavy coldseasons,andsales exceed expectations,butlabor costsskyrocket.,Thenextyears are normal and salesmeetexpectations.,Thenextyears eachhavelighterthan normalcold seasons,so salesfailtomeetexpectations.,Other scenarioscould applyto FDA approvalfortheir drug.,Foreachscenario,calculatetheNPV.,Break-Even Analysis,Anotherwayto examine variability in our forecastsisbreak-even analysis.,In the Stewart Pharmaceuticals example,we couldbeconcerned with break-even revenue,break-even salesvolume or break-evenprice.,Thebreak-evenIATCFisgivenby:,Break-EvenAnalysis,Wecanstartwiththebreak-evenincrementalafter-taxcashflowandworkbackwardsthroughtheincomestatementtobackoutbreak-evenrevenue:,Investment,calculation,Cash Flow,Revenues,Variable Costs,Fixed Costs,Depreciation