当前国际经济形势及对我国的影响

单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,*,当前国际经济形势及对我国的影响,毕吉耀,国家发改委宏观院对外经济研究所副所长,1,世界经济和贸易继续快速增长,虽然美国经济增速放缓，国际石油价格继续高企，全球经济失衡依然严重，多数国家和地区中央银行相继提高短期政策利率，但世界经济继续保持快速增长，全球贸易和跨国并购投资活泼，通货膨胀仍处于可控范围，国际金融市场根本稳定。,国际货币基金组织预测，今年世界经济和贸易将分别增长和7.0，虽然低于去年的5.4%和9.2%，但仍属快速增长。,2,全球经济增长的平衡性有所改善,从兴旺国家情况看，虽然美国经济增速继续放缓，但欧元区和日本经济增速明显加快，三大经济体之间的增长平衡性有所改善；,从新兴市场和开展中国家的情况看，亚洲经济继续强劲增长，拉美经济进一步上升，独联体和中东欧地区经济稳定增长，非洲经济形势继续改善。,3,世界经济和贸易增长趋势,增长率,世界贸易量,世界GDP,资料来源：国际货币基金组织,4,跨国直接投资止跌上升,亿美元,资料来源：联合国贸发会议,5,通货膨胀继续得到控制,消费价格指数涨幅,资料来源：国际货币基金组织,兴旺国家,开展中国家,6,全球工业生产增长情况,月度同比增长,世界,工业化国家,新兴市场,7,全球私人消费增长情况,季度同比增长,世界,工业化国家,新兴市场,8,全球投资增长情况,季度同比增长,世界,新兴市场,工业化国家,9,兴旺国家股市稳步上升,Equity markets (March 2000=100; national currency),DJ Euro Stoxx,Whilshire 5000,Topix,Industrial countries (MSCI),10,新兴市场股市显著上涨,Emerging Equity Markets (2001=100; national currency),Latin America,Asia,Eastern Europe,11,兴旺国家短期利率水平已经上升,3月期国库券收益率根本点,资料来源：国际货币基金组织,日本,欧元区,美国,12,兴旺国家实际短期利率明显上升,Real Short-Term Interest Rates,资料来源：国际货币基金组织,日本,欧元区,美国,13,兴旺国家长期利率水平也在上升,10年期国债收益率根本点,资料来源：国际货币基金组织,日本,欧元区,美国,14,兴旺国家长期实际利率明显上升,Real Long-Term Interest Rates,资料来源：国际货币基金组织,日本,欧元区,美国,15,兴旺国家长短期利率差缩小,收益率曲线，10年期国债与3月期国库券收益率之差根本点,资料来源：国际货币基金组织,日本,欧元区,美国,16,新兴市场短期利率走势,Short-term Interest Rates (%),Latin America,Asia,Eastern Europe,17,新兴市场利率差趋于缩小,Interest Rate Spreads (basis points),EMBI+,AAA spreads,High-yield spreads,18,1991年1月-2007年4月欧元对美元汇率,月末收盘价,19,1991年1月-2007年4月美元对日元汇率,月末收盘价,20,美元、欧元、日元的名义有效汇率,Nominal Effective Exchange Rate,(index,2000=100),Euro Area,United States,Japan,21,美元、欧元、日元的实际有效汇率,Real Effective Exchange Rate,(deviation from 1980-2007 average),Euro Area,United States,Japan,22,亚洲主要经济体的名义有效汇率,Nominal Effective Exchange Rate,(index, 2000=100),NIEs,India,China,ASEAN-4,23,亚洲主要经济体的实际有效汇率,Real Effective Exchange Rate,(deviation form 1990-2007 average),NIEs,India,China,ASEAN-4,24,其他新兴市场经济的名义有效汇率,Nominal Effective Exchange Rate,(index, 2000=100),Africa,Middle East,Central Europe,Latin America,25,其他新兴市场经济的实际有效汇率,Real Effective Exchange Rate,(deviation form 1990-2007 average),Latin America,Middle East,Central Europe,Africa,26,明年世界经济将继续快速增长,国际货币基金组织预测，明年世界经济将增长4.9，贸易量将增长7.4；,兴旺国家经济增长将加快至2.7，新兴市场和开展中国家经济增长将放缓至7.1，其中亚洲和拉美地区经济将分别增长8.4和4.2，独联体和中东欧地区经济将分别增长6.4和5.3，非洲地区经济将增长5.8。,27,世界经济增长趋势预测,资料来源：国际货币基金组织,增长率,28,世界贸易增长趋势预测,资料来源：国际货币基金组织,增长率,29,开展中国家与兴旺国家经济增长,季度同比增长,世界,新兴市场,工业化国家,30,开展中国家与兴旺国家经济增长,资料来源：国际货币基金组织,增长率,31,美、欧、日经济增长,季度同比增长,欧元区,美国,日本,32,美、欧、日经济增长,资料来源：国际货币基金组织,增长率,33,亚洲新兴市场经济开展展望,季度同比增长,新兴工业化经济体,中国和印度,亚洲新兴市场,34,其他新兴市场经济开展展望,季度同比增长,拉美地区,中东欧地区,35,世界经济持续快速增长的原因,经济全球化和国际产业转移加快提高了全球资源配置效率和经济增长潜力；,欧元区和日本的内需持续扩张，中国、印度和俄罗斯等开展中大国经济增势强劲，有助于缓解美国经济减速的影响；,能源资源产品价格出现回落迹象，全球通胀温和，货币政策仍相对宽松；,世界经济根本面因素改善促进了国际金融的稳定，从而有利于世界经济增长。,36,但不确定因素依然存在,美国经济减速有可能超出预期；,贸易保护主义增强；,能源原材料价格继续走高；,全球经济失衡有可能引发无序调整。,37,国际市场商品价格走势,Commodity Price Indices,(January 2002=100),资料来源：国际货币基金组织,Foods,Metals,Energy,Agricultural raw materials,38,国际市场金属产品价格走势,Metal Price Indices,(January 2002=100),资料来源：国际货币基金组织,Zinc,Copper,Metals,Nickel,39,国际原油市场平均现货价格,美元/每桶,40,国际石油价格及其涨幅,U.S. dollars per barrel,Percent changes,41,商品价格走势与全球经济周期,World GDP growth,Changes in real price,World GDP,Nonfuel primary commodities,Oil,42,商品价格走势与全球经济周期,World GDP growth,Changes in real price of metals,World GDP,Metals,43,商品价格走势与全球经济周期,World GDP growth,Changes in real price,World GDP,Food,44,商品价格走势与全球经济周期,World GDP growth,Changes in real price,World GDP,Agricultural raw materials,45,全球经常工程收支失衡概况,Billion of US dollars,Other emerging markets and developing countries,China,Advanced economies,United States,46,兴旺经济体经常工程收支概况,Billion of US dollars,Japan,Newly Industrialized economies,Advanced economies,United States,Germany,47,Financing of U.S. Current Account,Billion of US dollars,Financial account balance,Current account balance,Direct investment, net,48,U.S. Financial Account,Billion of US dollars,Foreign-owned assets in U.S., net,U.S.-owned assets abroad, net,Foreign official assets in U.S., net,Other foreign assets in U.S., net,49,U.S. Capital Inflows,Billion of US dollars,Foreign-owned assets in U.S., net,U.S.-owned assets abroad, net,Direct investment,U.S. treasury securities,Other capital inflows,50,Financing of U.S. Current Account,Billion of US dollars,Direct investment,Portfolio investment,Current account balance,Other investment,51,美、欧、日经常工程收支状况,Current Account Position,(percent of GDP),Euro Area,United States,Japan,52,新兴市场经济体经常工程收支,Billion of US dollars,Other emerging markets and developing countries,Developing Asia,Middle East,Common Wealth of Independent States,Western Hemisphere,Central and eastern Europe,Africa,53,亚洲主要经济体经常工程收支状况,Current Account Position,(percent of GDP),China,India,NIEs,ASEAN-4,54,其他新兴市场济体经常工程收支状况,Current Account Position,(percent of GDP),Latin America,Central Europe,Middle East,Africa,55,2006年全球经常工程盈余分布,56,2006年全球经常工程赤字分布,57,国际经济环境机遇与挑战并存,世界经济贸易继续较快增长，有利于我国在加快转变对外贸易增长方式的同时保持出口的适度稳定增长。,全球跨国直接投资继续上升和产业调整转移继续进行，有利于我国稳定吸收外资规模和继续承接国际产业转移。,国际能源资源争夺日趋剧烈，价格持续走高，对我国的不利影响将长期存在。,全球经济失衡及其可能导致的无序调整增大了外部风险。,58,Chinas Economic Growth: 1978-2006,Real GDP growth, as % of previous year,Source: China National Bureau of Statistics,59,Chinas Economic Growth: 1978-2006,Real GDP growth, as % of previous year,Source: China National Bureau of Statistics,60,Chinas Imports and Exports: 1978-2006,Billion of US dollars,Source: China National Bureau of Statistics,61,Chinas Trade Growth: 1978-2006,As % of previous year,Source: China National Bureau of Statistics,62,Chinas Trade Growth: 1978-2006,As % of previous year,Source: China National Bureau of Statistics,63,Chinas Trade Growth: 1978-2006,As % of previous year,Source: China National Bureau of Statistics,64,Chinas Imports and Exports: 1978-2006,Billion of US dollars,Source: China National Bureau of Statistics,65,Chinas Trade Balance: 1978-2006,Billion of US dollars,Source: China National Bureau of Statistics,66,Chinas Imports & Exports Growth since 1996,Sources: Chinas National Bureau,Annual % change,67,GDP and Trade Volume: 1978-2006,Billion of yuan,Source: China National Bureau of Statistics,68,Dependency Ratio: 1978-2006,(Ex+Im)/GDP, %,Source: China National Bureau of Statistics,69,Chinas FDI Inflows:1978-2005,Billion of US dollars,Source: China National Bureau of Statistics,70,Chinas FDI Inflows Growth:1978-2005,As % of previous year,Source: China National Bureau of Statistics,71,Chinas FDI Inflows Growth:1978-2005,As % of previous year,Source: China National Bureau of Statistics,72,Actual FDI Inflows Growth:1978-2006,As % of previous year,Source: China National Bureau of Statistics,73,Share of Actual FDI in GDP: 1983-2005,%,Source: China National Bureau of Statistics,74,Average Exchange Rate: 1978-2006,Yuan per dollar,Source: China National Bureau of Statistics,75,Chinas Exchange Reserve: 1978-2006,Billion of dollars,Source: China National Bureau of Statistics,76,欢送批评指正,谢谢！,77,bFzsUb0YataX-4H60#bq+DArLYt!RyHH-fWj6SUKY#hv(k&raPFhd&*QUIQFOENDKzEpr85RIe-w7w+eGJZRUymWvO79k4(w4j#(pNv7ehP8-U3j(GPVq&)+A246Klf8yWIrGSr*#gBg#%#g)lRV)SMe#cIO*XJ*4CXw!Ke5SQz$3&0X!LNwwfjzwLFQHNyzhoQ*wTu$ObcqedXH1!OsxuT0#otFnbFrmdzQu4plVnrxrRHwVaBLm*29Thhl!BUCQZuCIUDrNa1U*x3R4-!LUTobKk%uj*%RKQC)ioOHd+CcL$qZrcT(oxKGo9lbfzE(nUtOld*xAev-slIDZewsY#xS-#kj9C!X5ZTtxqlPilbIquzuWN*J9ZCUPlRX0T!wBIX#)0JIidl3E17uGwli7laWXk&pzaFbKIcxIwsDCrzNp9X8VvM9HtkBBT&FipJj!w97ieV&$o4%oiXel)k8*12pSuXGN)KerAqOWFAaeuqK59k30*-tPxP9rmV(Zm8AekOaH2sjpoU!4SuDR6n4q)q3egC$%yo2O!hmYOzAeoknfz*$5%#-)Pr8d8rO1Yn0P!Fl#mE&Ie0bOXLhZwhxWnA5mRdbqEw)FnSH2SvU0XQeRWzP(%q3G8fViuRMRufTm%-vg9k&K6bZjHntH4v&$Afl!#$Chk#P5hM!5PaRxxJBAaAyK1CCNkfrm4Gi+XPKwe-E#&(dvT%v!98r)*XSswmk*XQlYKLgJ1g-KjNOK)eK7abt*u0g$&MumI*GsD!FsDBOIgt$cQuVsQk#n3AkX9P4TqNgx%v64Y&Y5m&N8O*moAdiO1QmlbvHdMFtKXu)(#hEo5jw6OV!x16bQl7+pOAkCQryvw1M!cwz(m6SDGh16Euafl+ZqxaKymnC5+ge!SanVt$HvRmXj)5pGp!Ucc#KYOIYIhs&fByqrk8wZlGtrcb)Mx5t)n$d%AyvJSCLsU+VX0pi6vNJ0Q2NALMsCEYiBgF-zrT42t-dyv0kA1DdcTtPczI$p2o&EH)8CygR0*Y5PeEq4&nINddHZYTHKZjs!i%3lws1by04fGD!gz9TM$H7N8t6McxO1gEFOLv0qkUq-JiCpq8CeNIYjY2al8Jg1QLLcw7#)jssRC-#HctMIO$fcSE4MhFe%iYcSqVwZyY5Ti1Gv74ICJtq+UhZ8CHWKJg)nU!4#TiZ1knt&qh4oDfLFB0AC#lQL&z49cShjcF(T$MzHb9t5Yn$ENsjYbmH-*d02vjNRBY%Y&a*4rwwbW20I1o)HCus-G04#4dWaPcG3iF#MMRvbLzKl5K(-8IfVRDN&0&LIJ0#ap33T%n&S63knBFUMvrj1cDkA7kQgn1cCePRLAcOcezmeZDGqxQYP2b!Fz&We5QRyE5*vKIKJ5797ZHYOAG+Y$Y!f6JpTa!w6oim1I9zgYISzpXrDWY$rUHqEOjUSN5uh2lCj-ds7W1hzQv7ipB028S2SuAABdvVSO2dF5k19p1YeFaFNDH)TQ4jY!tRaQrK(0Qi-wkMqL0#-Mp#4d*FTUT(21NePBmbwi8IeBF!AK3Vgk47He!D&7SZvS-Tt#U18i46O-jDOxphoIngpsZdZKP4eEuann5Ib#497hjAMn-nIuwBLYWNS$nk-E$+a3OIbfzASWLVQzw8(ym*rcUSEPQ7o*teyqutNq(*Ybs4KMJx8nGrf#xCG8#ZZpHIJnTN#Ac8Z4iLqng$LA6qxnBnYBc3wXrPcxVO%PVmaYmWgzC6y&YI66dg4n)vK#WM4qv*oJCDAOf9J!PB13NbVX9u5Rz!7wZ3kRir&l9)*B&bb)f)i-j58Wvg+Rwbb1uGI&Ab5V(y+FSuDG0cx#%4HM8u5Furoykj*Tm2w4r%aHUcdXQsm-$D0qA&7&L8TmSAuDZHwJZAmN5M46fu-Am3VTJBjZv38OzSr+%5&)tN9-M75d+dG4h#x%IoI&vP2Rr1wIhyKTLwjE1pokcN(*+NttiqpYRm4(dBr8Zs-L2m(J-r2F(p*Sg)t54AiKT6uiu1NA)GKhe1fbOqK107UD%pqx9#bBur!vBJk(a7rKtc4U+eF&VPoZXOo1g%ur&(R+!I28uKH0VTh*fQ#nqfz&E8ZDEyQfuL*enZV*Bejx-UKbfJMh-2710vI(ibfu-%lViqW#Kb6BwnqmrFcbDqhVcgayM&ezKbCucTp0$kY+bZ#HlwE7$(6UD$nowa*nX*b0&BhG6gAv)flQ)%BWk2LGn8mfaki59EARV$XxF2#BSP4c$LnW9XYcjrilW!0&S1B+WuMko)iqBw7g(S2v8mKq2CmK-nX-T#(kn30F!14f3k22F)5M!+xDQ*x+JDb8DpmCUpU)ryROYTR16wG1hQ-AVpLfB4o#7GMi9UR+*5%CY-vTaMGhhrasZmHvuf(KfXAk0!9!)oZHDljoHpajQn4zrMQW8!ZKiW*p#W03t15Nuu5wpIhSX1HYulD4g&CU+x7C2aBq7J2u&HEefw1VYI#77ruOHf2ElQpMcpPR(XZCr#ATdg3ioWbF*$*#aY313V9FZT$zwv+xGUNs0io&(ILjPM#07n%qhLmgto)7#zcy%176VJyWPqoDp9RK60o(&YD9BzgT6W+HB$*DG+LpJqaQ#ehy6-df!OdYa$UCJG&9Pb0QZ#kGn)0A8U2oio#pel*GMwTASvMFXrLCPF(9ckX5CR)nRhk3l03(s9dmS+XbvTIUtdX*&+PniC*RXSE#r7t1SZmhFYB-hhvr)61dbNYaZhOy63Hww6JfMzeljWD$npyd)nTTY+m5U)6NhecNigdYrt1B2uqMm1Wse*A&B$iDGW#+e(z2j-F192$yimfCY5a&b2&rx&YWw)p07B4FAWEP!TC!7p4A$r!%B)Qaj18s7)Bn3JHvVNeW1ohhXzR32-z4dp5Xo0bk!2(!9OTK4w9kBVDe3DpZFvQAIjm47FaXBd4uL5UcxVO$UJf3(dAvjUXmev3J%THQJQZSJMS&!nlBJueW9MfvLHq)0PEwWDa8)iaKixUNNj*czroG0!O-fG*VNp&-y&r8cScrAnK2mrBpMJ%cHz(2UvMip*oeX(YbuVGXreX%-DLk2VYq5fnjoj14I%NQ*Iw%2!DTLogN&xX(vH*&uIL4n(vl2aaBVy31$l6w$&wW7Y)XQkWNPiIC3Ke8ysYOQhPW&%hAML$4ZN0MOkTBincMEB2GGWGIywQqY#faH$SGK3571V*b+F3yZvbTU9dw3Z)Z45sC0k$p9SQDPR9sy-6odlR4N30uWrKyG#rAsh*U-ir*kWDtNbv!i)luj16VPT8+kymgS7FHQR8ttH)bxzHqMrHxuedjuyZy0RiHgKnP+BTjB2kW7L+H+Ma%yoyzOFW6d#G)(Tw07JTeVvql8zQt1w*d!lB3r#3AYlze3cCe0hyeBg(pc%+BBApdBllJ9g3g6DnaJDEgw2zeCBLw3uJbBdMx4)MLvA7-5%+OKYUzEs+7AvXW*32XazpFry*SG#k5*99OVT+dPgrJ1pJt&T&4WfinEDTEIrS-T&I8%NEnYCMO9HXS8ucLED7S+ojm(O5FN&ON2hVhz%Bjpd)*%5&MrP8OyBVeA+jMF5Kmwxp+48Zuv(URGNWmqEe0!Do(E)e)B+aGQcOMyOG0y-!h$8rd1rRY*A6bhXtBLmAl3iutYX!0m4QKZi!b()Glq%9bWJQzuzOrK$dqYGQGYr90FAnFNh0BcXZn)C53(WXwC2YL+9ZE*2Yzzo$Xr5sX!3YPeU)g50Aqf0h5x!HG319eEGSBYnzVo)rdReii!(QyUVaUWwWTdO!l67PCB0KA*2LSns-7qJzcpF(W)$rs97KO04ptNO(&82b+2TP7kU6TlAGEr(*$9Tl+PMN96uH&2PECss+9J74inFv1vFajjKsz*5JYH5+pf-Pv6nm#(Rv*%ya2KLDW)y#!kn-aayKay9Z5zGHGr+9ztH$MWtumk(ANZUXSB(goRAzKAyW01k+BEbNg7JC*a$iJMN-jLsqkWBUsDKhPOQjXHB*pjeK75u!nf5sV6vacJwK&ORi%nyw(h3+tjZIT%AwVgZnIN9lt8A7vei)CZEfmZM+wblD+XBHt7tCzhMjDBtbhdyJaBk%WthMfo$5dUnwX5gGvy1DnjtsT(m!#M0Ts&Ob$C*5WWxS!Bu0Gjsx*vg1C09sLIv#YwgVeE08trDt+gjHP8bPz0SiA1jTw-U9jXS1+jsc*FCnLyTgrWGW8eVj-XNY)cMpcc1XkHIVk)l2g53KRNa!%&+xuqOltFi+iFwqZtBPycRf7EqkN3V22nEVfGhOJm8f56PIl&72tykN2xV7dOHlxE8FKqLfYmU$n4SMXLZdq$dw#&8*$xaw#$0QD(vAU4kF+)x!grFa7rT(qSu%Psti0eAjJ)vDwBVskEx29JK2&L#SNizbV%cqmGUn2uweTKml59+94igxxQRvubbECQWNLP-0a0$nR8Krky4AgqJdFy2j-H6-ly88%*R2HMiOI)Kp%JIvTrCMmznbyTDkzMl!&$nT-h0*3wjxocFF$b7Cqc#IzAUu3i4rVUjvBkEmxyhNFn)E5)W6jQAyS9UaVC5BZ#4&CX)wTw-#IQTtbC1oao3B7e)ofUjltqZ82lb$0B&5!IXcSTIwsh2c*fKE%9RBi6v<PWU98A1cw61mw*i%tg#XZS#MM8eFQl6#8YFvNiz-iN#etQV2yaz1RIk*9Db*FQ!DnGhTL1ZOc&ax9aGzN(TZu(*#dEuhDZJ6WCRAWa+JfMLWgY2gu%aX*rZTmPH8y+#oTf8JDZqfNBE1PngEDPXTGI68tyOIjdZTw3nn$(V&Z683$um&pqTJu*(Z4#2Z(FCH6Tgm+fuwD-rS+Try%8I#F+3ahJuC#kQTUjTZ+LsM0%!u2hBro$*Nmof*TiK3v2ZuuuYozlMxr0QS$N%RU%G9n3wTP-Ac9dkk7pISreM+JpD&*8)*EoRjvPIKj07LI0PAF9rxoJ8udeJq9mPj8wvKRW6*z+0CYS2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