报表分析的逻辑切入点

单击此处编辑母版标题样式,*,*,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,报表分析新思维(之一),报表分析的逻辑切入点,8/19/2024,1,阐述报表分析的逻辑切入点,基于M公司与GFC公司的案例分析,案例分析,德隆的垮台与财务报表的预警信号,中石油的经营记录与业绩评价,移动电信的辉煌业绩与潜在风险,本讲旨在说明报表分析的常见误区，把握报表分析的逻辑体系,研讨要点与目的,8/19/2024,2,三大核心问题,问题1,M公司与GFC公司孰优孰劣？孰强孰弱？,问题2,M公司与GFC公司股票市值的反差原因何在？,问题3,如何评价M公司与GFC公司的业绩？,考倒全世界顶级,MBA,的难题,8/19/2024,3,经营规模-雇员人数,8/19/2024,4,经营规模-资产总额,8/19/2024,5,经营规模销售收入,8/19/2024,6,经营规模-,CFFOA,8/19/2024,7,股票市值,(,Capitalization,),8/19/2024,8,财务实力净资产,8/19/2024,9,经营绩效净利润,8/19/2024,10,财务数据：GFC v.s M,(2002),项 目,名 称,GFC公司,M公司,倍,数,G,F,C,合 计,M,雇员人数,36.5,35.0,36.8,108.3,5.05,21.45,资产总额,3,718,2,952,2,192,8,862,676,13.11,销售收入,1,860,1,626,1,750,5,236,284,18.44,现金流量,171,186,208,565,145,3.90,股票市值,200,196,313,709,2,541,0.28,股东权益,68,56,408,532,540,0.99,净利润,17,-10,55,62,78,0.79,ROE,25%,-18%,13%,12%,14%,0.86,新经济与旧经济的反差,8/19/2024,11,1.科学管理(时间和动作研究),2.本钱核算和差异分析,3.商业研究实验室(科学产业化)(GE),4.(ROI & ROE)资本分析和资本预算,5.品牌管理(P&G),6.大规模工程管理,7.事业部制(GM),8.领导力开发(GE),9.产业内联合(多公司合作组织)(Visa),10. 极度分权化(自我组织)(Google),11.正式化战略分析,12. 员工驱动问题解决法(Toyota),DuPont,Analysis,13.臭鼬工厂(内部攻坚小组),14. 客户管理,15. 业务流程再造,1900-2000年175项管理创新,1. 是否明显脱离以前的管理实践,2. 是否给率先创新的公司带来,竞争优势,3. 是否在当今的组织中留下烙印,20,世纪现代管理的,12,大创新,8/19/2024,12,净资产收益率,(收入+利得) (本钱+费用+损失),实收资本 + 资本公积 + 盈余公积 + 未分配利润,净利润,ROE=,净资产,做大分子:,增收节支,做小分母:,光明正道: 资本结构,歪门邪道: 亏损挥霍,ROE,陷阱,8/19/2024,13,财务数据：GFC v.s M,(2003),项 目,名 称,GFC公司,M公司,倍,数,G,F,C,合 计,M,雇员人数,32.3,32.8,38.4,103.5,5.7,18.2,资产总额,4,485,3,046,2,246,9,777,796,12.3,销售收入,1,855,1,642,1,719,5,216,322,16.2,现金流量,76,202,208,486,158,3.1,股票市值,218,259,453,930,2,915,0.32,股东权益,252,117,434,803,610,1.32,净利润,38,4.9,5.6,48.5,99.9,0.49,ROE,15%,4%,1.3%,6%,16%,0.38,新经济与旧经济的强烈反差,8/19/2024,14,盈利质量,现金流量,资产质量,财务报表分析的三大逻辑切入点,8/19/2024,15,盈利质量,收入质量,利润质量,毛利率,成长性,波动性,研发营销,盈利质量分析方法,8/19/2024,16,收入质量,(Quality of Revenue,),MSFT,GM,F,DCX(ED),1999,197,1690,1601,1482,2000,230,1739,1698,1603,2001,253,1691,1609,1540,2002,284,1773,1623,1474,2003,322,1855,1642,1364,2004,368,1935,1709,1421,2005,398,1926,1771,1498,2006,443,2073,1601,1516,2007,511,1881,1725,1526,2008,604,8/19/2024,17,收入质量,(Quality of Revenue,),8/19/2024,18,利润质量,(Quality of Profit),MSFT,GM,F,DCX(ED),1999,79,60,72,57,2000,94,45,35,79,2001,73,6,-55,- 7,2002,78,17,-10,47,2003,95,38,5,4,2004,90,28,35,25,2005,122,-106,20,28,2006,126,-21,-124,32,2007,141,-387,- 25,40,2008,177,8/19/2024,19,利润质量,(Quality of Profit),8/19/2024,20,Rival,Amount,Date,Time Warner,$750 m,May 2003,Sun Micro,$1.95 b,April 2004,Novell,$536 m,Nov.2004,B,$ 60 m,March 2005,Gateway,$150 m,April 2005,IBM,$775 m,June 2005,Total,$4.221 b,Microsoft Settlement,(Antitrust suit filed in 1998, settled in 2001),8/19/2024,21,项 目,名 称,GM,Ford,DaimlerChrysler,2004,2005,2004,2005,2004,2005,销售收入,1,935.17,1,926.04,1,716.46,1,781.01,1,682.26,1,773.65,其中:汽车,1,615.46,1,582.21,1,471.28,1,545.15,1,517.19,1,590.82,金融,319.71,343.83,245.18,235.86,165.07,182.83,净利润,27.89,-105.54,34.87,19.98,29.20,33.70,其中:汽车,-1.05,-130.62,-1.55,-39.26,n.a,n.a,金融,28.08,25.08,50.08,58.81,n.a,n.a,经营业绩:,2005 vs. 2004,8/19/2024,22,2006:艰难的转折?,Chrysler Group,2006 Operating Loss $15,2007 total Loss $29.2,May 15,2007 sold for $74,May 10, 1998 bought for $360,GM,Ford,DCX,Q1,4.45,-11.87,2.99,Q2,-33.79,-2.54,18.10,Q3,-1.15,-58.00,5.51,Q4,+9.50,-51.64,5.67,Total,-20.99,-124.05,32.27,2007: -$387,2021Q3: -$213,SE as of the end of 2021Q3,GM:-599; Ford: -20,2021Q3,-$87,8/19/2024,23,毛利率,(Gross Profit Margin),会计年度,G,F,C,M,2001,9.2%,1.8%,16.1%,86.3%,2002,7.8%,6.8%,18.8%,81.6%,2003,8.0%,6.2%,19.4%,81.2%,2004,7.0%,7.8%,19.4%,81.8%,2005,-2.5%,5.6%,17.9%,84.4%,2006,4.8%,-3.9%,17.1%,81.1%,2007,6.7%,7.6%,24.8%,79.1%,2008,80.8%,8/19/2024,24,M公司的本钱费用结构,3 E Strategy,Embrace, Extend,Extinguish,8/19/2024,25,R & D,占销售收入比重,2006年2248家企业集团R&D占比1.1%,GM2003-2005,3.33%; 3.34%; 3.47%,8/19/2024,26,本钱结构与风险传导,资产质量,资产结构,现金含量,退出壁垒,经营风险,财务弹性,潜在损失,资产质量分析方法,技术风险,8/19/2024,27,资产质量,(Quality of Assets)(2001,),8/19/2024,28,资产质量,(Quality of Assets)(2002,),8/19/2024,29,资产质量,(Quality of Assets)(2003,),8/19/2024,30,资产质量,(Quality of Assets)(2004,),8/19/2024,31,资产质量,(Quality of Assets)(2005,),8/19/2024,32,如何解释市净率?,13.1,5.5,5.8,3.4,0.67,8/19/2024,33,品牌价值,8/19/2024,34,被忽略的“软资产,Coca-Cola,Microsoft,品牌,价值,资产,总额,股东,权益,品牌,价值,资产,总额,股东,权益,2001,690,224,114,651,588,473,2002,696,244,118,641,676,522,2003,705,273,141,652,796,649,2004,674,314,159,614,944,748,2005,675,294,164,599,708,482,8/19/2024,35,何为风险?,Risk is uncertainty,风险的类别,经济风险(Economic Risk),环境风险(经济条件、政治及社会环境,市场风险市场结构、企业竞争优势,经营风险Operational Risk),固定本钱与变动本钱比例,财务风险Financial Risk),资本结构与金融市场利率,营业风险,Business Risk,利润易变性,Profit Volatility,传,导,传,导,本钱结构与风险传导,8/19/2024,36,+5% +14% +18%,-5% -14% -18%,经济风险,经营风险,营业风险,财务风险,经济状况,政治社会环境,销售,收入,息税前,利润,税后,利润,市场结构,竞争优势,风险的传导与放大,8/19/2024,37,XYZ公司风险评估测算表,预期数,销售收入,+5%,销售收入,-5%,销售收入,50,000,+5%,52,500,-5%,47,500,减:变动成本,19,000,+5%,19,950,-5%,18,050,固定成本,20,000,0%,20,000,0%,20,000,息税前利润,11,000,+14%,12,550,-14%,9,450,减:,固定利息支出,2,500,0%,2,500,0%,2,500,税前利润,8,500,+18%,10,050,-18%,6,950,减:所得税,2,125,+18%,2,513,-18%,1,738,税后利润,6,375,+18%,7,537,-18%,5,212,风险传导放大效应,8/19/2024,38,现金流量,经营现金流量,自由现金流量,“造血功能,自由裁量,现金流量分析方法,8/19/2024,39,广义的自由现金流量,FCF = 经营性现金流量-资本支出,用于评估还本付息和股利支付的能力,狭义的自由现金流量,FCF = 经营性现金流量-资本支出-现金股利,用于评估企业的财务弹性,利用市场机遇和应对市场逆境的能力,用于评估企业依靠内部现金资源谋求开展的能力,CFFOA vs. Free Cash Flow,8/19/2024,40,现金流量趋势:,G,(12 vs. 73),2004,2005,2006,FCF,+53,-250,-197,Interest,120,158,170,Principal,4526,4614,1916,2007,CF-O:77;CF-CE:75,Int.:29; P:1844,8/19/2024,41,Cut 30,000 jobs,Close 9 facilities,By 2021 (2005.11.21),Share $19.85 (2005.12.20),Lowest in 23 years,GM,-不断恶化的信用等级,8/19/2024,42,GM vs. Toyota,GM: 27,TM: 1052,8/19/2024,43,谁是老大?,8/19/2024,44,1.1 million of employees covered, pension and health care liability totaled $170 b, current,Shortage $54 b,GM-,不堪重负的医疗与退休债务,8/19/2024,45,2005,2004,GM,Toyota,GM,Toyota,Health,Care,$1,850,$200,$1,528,$201,Pension,$ 700,$50,$695,$50,Total,$ 2,550,$250,$2,223,$251,GAP: $2,300,GAP: $1,972,医疗及退休费用对制造本钱的影响,8/19/2024,46,汽车巨头盈利能力差异,8/19/2024,47,S & P lowered Fords rating to B+ on June 27,2006,现金流量趋势,:F(69 vs. 63),2007,CF-O:171,CF-CE:60,8/19/2024,48,2006年F公司的生死之年?,Way Forward,Turnaround Program,1.Cut North America,White-collar costs by 10%,2. Eliminate up to 30,000,Hourly jobs and close 14,Plants by 2021,Buy out all 75,000 North,American factory workers,$140,000 per worker,Total $10.5 billion,8/19/2024,49,现金流量趋势,:,C,2007,CF-O: 191,CF-CE: 164,8/19/2024,50,现金流量趋势,:,M,8/19/2024,51,Microsoft: 股票期权的妙用,If you work for Microsoft,Microsoft does not pay you, you have to pay Microsoft,2003-2021,166.40,8/19/2024,52,Problem Children,Stars,Dogs,Cash Cows,市场成长性,市场占有率,高,低,高,By the Boston Consulting Group in 1968,波士顿矩阵,(The Boston Matrix),8/19/2024,53,Stars,(,现金明星,),PLC,处于高速成长阶段，市场占有率很高且仍呈上升趋势,销售收入和现金流量有很高的增长潜力,获利丰厚，但现金流量不很充裕,波士顿矩阵,(The Boston Matrix),8/19/2024,54,Cash Cows(现金奶牛),市场占有率很高,PLC处于成熟阶段,产品维持本钱较低,现金性收入很高,经营性现金流量十分充裕,波士顿矩阵,(The Boston Matrix),8/19/2024,55,Dogs,(,现金瘦狗,),PLC,处于衰退阶段,市场占有率很低或不断下降,经营性现金流量入不敷出,产品需要大量维持支出,Is your product starting to,embarrass your company?,波士顿矩阵,(The Boston Matrix),8/19/2024,56,Problem Child,(,问题小孩,),PLC,处于高速成长阶段，但市场占有率很低,产品维持需要大量资金支出,经营性现金流量可能出现负数,未来潜力充满不确定性,Problem children worth spending,good money on?,波士顿矩阵,(The Boston Matrix),8/19/2024,57,股票市场表现,8/19/2024,58,Microsoft,的崛起,1975年4月Bill Gates and Paul Allen创立了Microsoft,Microsoft staff photo from,December 7,1978,. From left to right:Top:,Steve Wood,Bob Wallace,Jim Lane,.Middle:,Bob ORear,Bob Greenberg,Marc McDonald,Gordon Letwin,.Bottom:,Bill Gates,Andrea Lewis,Marla Wood,Paul Allen,IPO in March 13, 1986, raising $61 m,To date, total capital raised is more than $62.8 b,8/19/2024,59,Bill Gates的裸捐,Warren Buffett donated $37 billion, mainly to the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation,+$50,8/19/2024,60,谁是美国高科技的最大功臣?,中美经济改革的,不同价值取向,8/19/2024,61,三大,逻辑,切入,点,盈利质量,资产质量,现金流量,收入质量,利润质量,毛利率上下,成长性,退出壁垒,潜在损失,经营现金流量,自由现金流量,波动性,资产结构,现金含量,造血“功能,自由裁量,研发营销,报表分析三大逻辑切入点,8/19/2024,62,盈利质量与资产质量相互背离案例,NPL Ratio,2005: 4.62%; 2006: 4.04%,NPL Ratio,2001: 27.51%; 2002: 22.49%,拨备覆盖率,2001:16.80% 2002: 22.09%,拨备覆盖率,2005: 80.55%; 2006: 96.00%,8/19/2024,63,盈利质量与资产质量相互背离案例,类 别,名 称,XYZ银行,2002,2001,正常贷款,11,556,8,935,关注贷款,2,520,2,558,不良贷款,4,085,4,360,其中: 次级,657,1,089,可疑,1,554,2,344,损失,1,874,927,贷款合计,18,162,15,853,贷款准备,903,681,贷款类别,计提比例,正常,1%,关注,2%,次级,25%,可疑,50%,损失,100%,8/19/2024,64,第一次不良贷款剥离,Carved-out,Or,Covered out?,8/19/2024,65,Bank,AMC,NPL (, billion),工行,华融,407.7,农行,长城,345.8,中行,东方,267.4,建行,信达,373.0,合 计,1,394.0,财政部关于中国银行和中国建设银行所持金融资产管理公司债券本息有关问题的通知（财金200487号），从2005.1.1起，如果东方和信达不能全额向BOC和CCB支付债券利息或按期兑付本金，MOF将给予资金支持,NPL transferred to AMC,8/19/2024,66,414亿元,可疑类贷款,227亿元,核销冲销贷款,2787亿元,可疑类贷款,2460亿元,损失类贷款,4590亿元,可疑类贷款,交行,2004.6,中行和建行,2004.6,工行,2005.5; 2005.6,信达,信达,四大AMC,不良贷款二次剥离,8/19/2024,67,年 度,净利润,CFFOA,1998,9,876,- 17,191,1999,12,308,- 21,248,2000,17,844,- 53,576,2001,3,610,- 2,594,2002,2,280,- 84,807,2003,-18,683,-15,544,2004,1,982,45,300,2005,-69,600,21,600,2006,-71,866,16,413,年 度,净利润,比例,调整前,17,844,调整后,6,995,39.2%,调整额,10,849,60.8%,调整,原因,将原计入长期待摊费用和在建工程的 R & D，作为重大会计差错进行 调整,“纸面富贵的D公司,2004: S 26.3; NI(A) -641;,2005: S 15.6; NI(A)-7.11,2006: S 21.4,2004: NI overstated by 3719,30 fined by CSRS,8/19/2024,68,乐极生悲的四川长虹,净利润,2001 0.89,1.76,2.41,2004 -36.81,2004 Q1-Q3,CFFOA,-3.12,8/19/2024,69,权责发生,制会计,管理当局,动机,盈利质量,现金流量,分析,资产负债,质量,核心盈利,可持续性、成长,性、现金流量,调整与调节,应计制向现金,流动制的转换,确认和计量,资产、负债、,股东权益,决 策,财务契约设计,估值与投资,信贷分析,财务风险评估,审计风险评估,过失,歪曲,报表失真问题,报表分析纬度,报表分析用途,财务报表分析的逻辑切入点,8/19/2024,70,三大报表的功能区分,资产负债表,利润表,现金流量表,从“德隆系的垮台看证券监管的误区,基于新疆屯河的案例分析,德隆是被郎咸平搞垮的吗?,8/19/2024,71,现金流量表的“妙用,经营活动产生的现金流量,投资活动产生的现金流量,筹资活动产生的现金流量,造血功能,抽血功能,输血功能,现金流量表经常被忽略的报表,8/19/2024,72,IPO的条件,3年连续盈利,上市前一年末的净资产比率不低于30%,SEO的门槛,配股：ROE不低于6%,增发：上一年的ROE不低于10%,ST或退市的标准,ST：连续两年亏损，或NAPS低于1元,退市：连续三年亏损,复市的条件,恢复盈利,以利润表和资产负债表的监管导向,8/19/2024,73,项 目 名 称,2001,年末,2002,年末,2003,年末,2004年末,流动资产,173,190,281,349,139,354,163,402,长期投资,98,339,78,101,88,114,48,081,固定资产,134,618,245,025,143,305,171,191,无形及其他资产,23,621,27,546,9,733,11,676,资产总计,429,768,632,021,380,506,394,350,流动负债,278,007,426,140,217,752,311,522,长期负债,6,706,42,835,48,514,43,459,少数股东权益,56,609,62,047,2,592,3,378,股东权益,88,446,100,999,111,648,35,991,L&SE总计,429,768,632,021,380,506,394,350,德隆是被郎咸平搞垮的吗?,8/19/2024,74,中国电信的运营资本,2007,2006,2005,2004,2003,固定资产,339,331,346,805,351,938,349,713,341,576,其他非流动资产,25,993,27,860,28,701,29,471,29,391,现金及银行存款,20,556,22,445,18,863,14,603,18,199,其他流动资产,22,124,21,761,21,582,19,839,20,278,资产合计,408,004,418,871,421,084,413,626,409,444,流动负债,138,537,157,629,157,707,152,284,149,630,非流动负债,47,095,53,593,77,199,100,007,102,744,负债合计,185,632,211,222,234,906,252,291,252,374,股东权益,222.372,207,649,186,178,161,335,157,070,负债与股东权益合计,408,004,418,871,421,084,413,626,409,444,运营资本,-95,857,-113,423,-117,262,-117,842,-111,153,运营资本中国移动,+52,68,+ 22,161,8/19/2024,75,2004,7,459,185,084,-34,924,德隆是被郎咸平搞垮的吗?,8/19/2024,76,项 目 名 称,2001年,2002年,2003年,2004年,主营业务收入,76,726,194,351,217,379,109,765,主营业务利润,25,872,72,138,78,550,29,980,营业利润,3,824,7,613,5,357,-29,177,加：投资收益,4,235,4,992,9,824,-37,839,补贴收入,565,4,887,407,472,营业外收入,317,411,345,106,减：营业外支出,156,556,478,1,958,利润总额,8,785,17,347,15,456,-68,397,减：所得税,-522,2,374,168,179,少数股东损益,4,241,3,709,3,361,-746,加：,未确认投资损失,1,229,净利润,5,066,11,262,11,926,-66,601,德隆是被郎咸平搞垮的吗?,8/19/2024,77,项 目 名 称,2001年,2002年,2003年,2004年,经营活动产生的现金,-19,618,48,845,27,726,-41,910,投资活动的现金流入,3,722,283,70,393,15,232,其中: 收回投资,3,180,0,69,948,15,100,投资收益,506,0,0,0,投资活动的现金流出,55,913,51,884,173,167,24,909,投资活动的净现金流,-52,191,51,601,-102,774,-9,676,筹资活动的现金流入,156,569,212,677,327,952,62,126,其中: 借款,137,244,212,467,324,973,58,968,筹资活动的现金流出,75,651,143,361,289,020,50,596,其中：偿还债务,67,830,123,278,270,332,40,802,支付股利和利息,7,821,19,897,17,341,9,733,德隆是被郎咸平搞垮的吗?,8/19/2024,78,德隆是被郎咸平搞垮的吗?,8/19/2024,79,德隆的死因,既不是被郎咸平“搞死的，也不是被监管部门“整死的,而是自己“搞死的,战略管理的失误,理财策略的失误,短借长用,“造血功能缺乏，靠“输血维持，且不懂得“节制,初步启示,证券监管出现方向性“偏差,CSRC和两个SE都不关心现金流量表，CPA也不例外,理性回归,牢记理财学中的“万有引力定律,Cash is king !,Cash Flow Statement is a king without cloth!,简短结论,8/19/2024,80,燃料工业部石油管理总局,(1950.4),石油工业部,(1955.7),燃料化学工业部,(1970.6),石油化学工业部,(1975),石油工业部,(1978),中国石油天然气总公司,(1988.9),中国石油天然气集团公司,(1998.7),中国海洋石油总公司,(1982.2),中国石油化工总公司,(1983.7),中国石油化工行业的沿革,8/19/2024,81,2000.4上市200亿,2005.9增发196亿,重组,中石油,(0857.HK),股价周线图,发行40亿A股, 发行价16.70元，募集688亿元,股份,比例%,国有股,1579,86.28,H股,211,11.53,A股,40,2.19,合计,1830,100.0,8/19/2024,82,中石油上市以来股价表现,发行价格,巴菲特撤退?,8/19/2024,83,中石油业绩因何突出?,-业绩角度,2021Q3,S: 8537,NI: 987,8/19/2024,84,中石油业绩因何突出?,税收角度,2021Q3,1883,8/19/2024,85,中石油业绩因何突出?,资产结构角度,2021Q3,TA: 10594; FA: 6935,8/19/2024,86,中石油业绩因何突出?,财务状况角度,2021Q3,TA:11227; SE:7853,DR: 30.05%,DR:,28.07%,8/19/2024,87,中石油业绩因何突出?, 现金流量角度,2021Q3,OA: 1499; IA:-1196; FA:-269,8/19/2024,88,中石油业绩因何突出?,自由现金流量角度,2021Q3: 197,8/19/2024,89,中国石油,业绩报告,(,可控与不可控因素分析,),油价影响?,EVA影响?,改制影响?,中石油业绩因何突出?,8/19/2024,90,业绩飙升的动因,2007接替率,原油:1.104,天然气: 3.238,8/19/2024,91,原油价格走势图(2000-2021),收盘,$67.81,最高,$147.27,8/19/2024,92,“暴利税 (300亿),政府的重大决定(2006.3.26),?国务院关于开征石油企业收益特别金的决定?、财政部?石油收益特别金征收管理方法?,原油价格,税 率,$40 - $45,20%,$45 - $50,25%,$50 - $55,30%,$55 - $60,35%,$60以上,40%,8/19/2024,93,EVA vs. NI 中石油EVA=NOPAT ICxWACC 或EVA=净利润-净资产资金本钱率,8/19/2024,94,资本本钱导致,经营业绩锐减,EVA vs. NI 中石化(2002),8/19/2024,95,Value,Creation,Value,Destruction,EVA vs. NI 四川长虹(2002),8/19/2024,96,CNPC vs. PC 的比较及涵义,资产总额,股东权益,销售收入,税后利润,少数股东损益,2000,集团,股份,6,565,4,320,3,939,2,176,3,451,2,453,197,546,52,2001,集团,股份,6,751,4,627,4,089,2,906,3,435,2,413,151,455,83,2002,集团,股份,7,361,4,831,4,504,3,167,3,792,2,444,236,469,94,2003,集团,股份,8,083,5,317,4,969,3,566,4,753,3,038,371,696,80,2004,集团,股份,9,137,6,099,5,954,4,252,5,707,3,886,725,1,029,138,2005,集团,股份,11,602,7,781,7,475,5,437,6,937,5,522,1,061,1,396,167,2006,集团,股份,14,090,8,685,n.a,6,176,8,685,6,890,1,299,1,494,88.2%,(1,318),2007,集团,股份,15,990,9,641,n.a,7,151,10,007,8,350,1,345,1,434,86.3%,(1,238),8/19/2024,97,项目名称,Sinopec Group,Sinopec,资产总额,6,202,4,608,负债及少数股东权益,4,292,2,744,股东权益,1,910,1,864,主营业务收入,6,342,5,906,净利润,105,323,销售利润率,1.69%,7.00%,净资产收益率,5.49%,17.32%,SINOPEC,少数股东损益165,有何涵义？,中石化集团vs.中石化股份的比较及涵义,8/19/2024,98,PetroChina vs. ExxonMobile,8/19/2024,99,PetroChina vs. ExxonMobile,项目名称,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,销售收入,-PC,-EM,2,493,2,009,3,104,2,371,3,974,2,912,5,522,3,590,6,890,3,655,8,350,3,903,税后利润,-PC,-EM,474,115,719,215,1,067,253,1,396,361,1,494,395,1,434,406,资产总额,-PC,-EM,5,009,1,526,5,570,1,743,6,385,1,953,7,781,2,083,8,721,2,190,9,941,2,421,净资产,-PC,-EM,3,243,746,3,669,899,4,430,1,018,5,437,1,112,5,437,1,112,7,151,1,218,3.41,2.07,1.78,1.24,8/19/2024,100,PetroChina vs. ExxonMobile,项目名称,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,销售利润率,-PC,-EM,19.01%,5.72%,23.16%,9.06%,27.07%,8.69%,25.28%,10.06%,21.68%,10.81%,17.17%,10.40%,资产周转率,-PC,-EM,0.51,1.36,0.59,1.45,0.66,1.58,0.78,1.78,0.84,1.71,0.89,1.70,财务杠杆系数,-PC,-EM,1.54,2.05,1.52,1.94,1.44,1.92,1.43,1.87,1.41,1.92,1.39,1.99,净资产收益率,-PC,-EM,14.93%,15.95%,20.77%,25.48%,25.73%,26.36%,28.19%,33.49%,25.68%,35.49%,21.34%,34.50%,Debt Ratio-2007,PC: 28% EM:50%,8/19/2024,101,Du Pont 分析体系,净资产收益率的分解,净利润,净资产收益率=,净资产,净利润 销售收入 资产总额,净资产收益率= ,销售收入 资产总额 净资产,=,销售利润率 资产周转率 财务杠杆系数,8/19/2024,102,中国电信市场概览,市场总量,2007年全国通信业务收入7120.6亿元,其中,电信业务收入7280.18亿元,增长10.9%,邮政业务收入771.5亿元,增长21.2%,用户总量,2007.12.31, 全国 用户91,273.4万户,其中,移动 用户54,728.4万户,约占60%,固定 用户36,545万户,约占40%,8/19/2024,103,移动 一支独秀,8/19/2024,104,开展趋势:冰火两重天,8/19/2024,105,电信市场构成,8/19/2024,106,移动通信案例分析市场占有率,8/19/2024,107,王建宙:,我举双手赞成!,常小兵:,我想不通!,王晓初:,我无话可说!,电信三巨头闪电换岗,-中组部和国资委的灰色幽默,8/19/2024,108,电信重组:走向实质竞争?,新中国电信,=旧中国电信,+CDMA网+中国卫通,根底电信业务,新中国联通,=旧中国联通,GSM网+中国网通,新中国移动,=旧中国移动,+中国铁通,王晓初,常小兵,王建宙,8/19/2024,109,电信三巨头的竞争实力,中 国,移 动,中 国 联 通,中 国,电 信,联 通,网 通,营业收入,3,570,1,005,841,1,787,增长率,10.9%,4.1%,-3.35%,2.80%,EBIDTA,1,940,326,412,893,EBIDTA率,54.3%,33.0%,50.0%,50.0%,净利润,871,56,121,237,增长率,31.9%,166%,-6.70%,1.10%,用户数(亿),3.866,1.6249,固话1.1878,宽带0.1977,固话2.26,宽带0.3565,净增数(万),6810.7,1825.3,固话-325.2,宽带 533.9,固话 -271,宽带 733,8/19/2024,110,中国移动,(0941.HK),股价月线图,1997.7 上市,323亿元,8/19/2024,111,中国联通,(0762.HK),股价月线图,2000.6上市,453亿,8/19/2024,112,市场开拓？,资本运作,?,营业收入趋势图,(,Comparability),2021H1,1965,2021H1,359,8/19/2024,113,收入成长性,8/19/2024,114,会 计,年 度,纳入合并的子公司家数,报 表 数,备 拷 数,金额（亿元）,比 增,金额（亿元）,比 增,2000,6,182,-,247,-,2001,13,280,53.8%,284,15.0%,2002,21,327,16.4%,340,19.7%,2003,21,356,8.9%,347,2.1%,2004,31,420,18.0%,432,24.50%,2005,31,535,27.4%,535,23.8%,合并范围对中国移动营业收入的影响,8/19/2024,115,中国移动营业收入曲线,8/19/2024,116,经营业绩,项 目,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,经营收入-报告数,-备拷数,685,1,301,755,1,409,1,185,1,516,1,612,1,612,1,693,1,693,利润总额-报告数,-备拷数,69,83,169,83,247,139,281,281,280,280,资产总额-报告数,-备拷数,1,893,4,234,2,108,4,237,3,056,4,039,4,126,4,126,4,171,4,171,L&MI -报告数,-备拷数,918,2,540,858,2,367,1,744,2,531,2,534,2,534,2,355,2,355,净资产 -报告数,-备拷数,975,1,694,1,250,1,870,1,312,1,508,1,592,1,592,1,816,1,816,中国电信5年财务概要,8/19/2024,117,中国电信过去5年业绩成长,8/19/2024,118,中国电信过去五年收入构成,8/19/2024,119,中国电信经营本钱构成,2006,2005,2004,金额,%,金额,%,金额,%,折旧与摊销,51,272,37.57,49,652,38.09,47,170,38.86,网络营运及支撑成本,30,723,22.51,30,334,23.27,27,611,22.75,销售、一般及管理费用,22,241,16.30,19,892,15.26,19,229,15.84,人工成本,26,019,19.06,24,960,19.15,23,233,19.14,网间互联&其他经营成本,6,255,4.59,5,518,4.23,4,139,3.41,合 计,136,483,100.0,130,356,100.0,121,382,100.0,8/19/2024,120,中国移动经营本钱构成,项目名称,金 额,备 注,电路租费,3,224,其他营运支出主要包括销售及推广开支、减值损失、经营租赁费用、维修费用、收账服务费用、无线电频率费用等。假设其中60%为固定成本，则固定成本占经营成本的70%,网间互联支出,15,309,折旧,56,368,工资,14,200,其他营运支出,80,254,经营成本合计,169,355,8/19/2024,121,会 计,年 度,中 国 移 动,中 国 联 通,EBIDTA（亿元）,占收入比例,EBIDTA（亿元）,占收入比例,2001,603,60.1%,135,48.2%,2002,773,60.1%,185,56.6%,2003,923,58.2%,249,70.1%,2004,1,068,55.5%,270,64.3%,2005,1,333,54.9%,284,32.7%,2006,1,596,54.04%,317,33.6%,EBIDTA,比率,2007,1,940,54.30%,324,33.2%,8/19/2024,122,中国电信,EBIDTA,比率,46.0%,54.0%,52.3%,51.3%,49.0%,8/19/2024,123,EBIDTA,曲线,8/19/2024,124,净利润变动趋势,2007: EVA 608,2007: EVA -8.8,2021H1,中国移动: 549,中国联通: 45,8/19/2024,125,净利润变动趋势,8/19/2024,126,中国电信过去五年净利润变动趋势,Impairment,2002: 147,2003: 148,2004: 13,2007: 28,2021H1: 127,8/19/2024,127,会 计,年 度,纳入合并的子公司家数,报 表 数,备 拷 数,金额（亿元）,比 增,金额（亿元）,比 增,2000,6,182,-,247,-,2001,13,280,53.8%,284,15.0%,2002,21,327,16.4%,340,19.7%,2003,21,356,8.9%,347,2.1%,2004,31,420,18.0%,432,24.50%,2005,31,535,27.4%,535,23.8%,合并范围对中国移动净利润的影响,8/19/2024,128,中国移动净利润变动曲线,8/19/2024,129,会计准那么差异对净利润的影响,8/19/2024,130,Daimler-Benz (1993,DM),8/19/2024,131,销售利润率,2006,660,22.3%,37,3.9%,2007,871,24.4%,56,5.6%,8/19/2024,132,折旧占比,2006,646,21.8%,224,23.8%,2007,674,18.9%,227,22.6%,8/19/2024,133,销售费用及其占比,12.2%,14.7%,22.5%,24.7%,23.7%,20.5%,19.6%,8/19/2024,134,财务状况,8/19/2024,135,资产结构Impact of 3G),8/19/2024,136,84% 85% 85% 82% 84%,电信设施及设备,占82%,中国电信的资产结构,2006: 84%; 2007: 83%,8/19/2024,137,净资产收益率吸引竞争者?,8/19/2024,138,现金储藏,2006:31%,2007:33%,2006:8.0%,2007:0.5%,8/19/2024,139,经营性现金流量,中国电信,2006:748,2007:749,8/19/2024,140,经营性现金流量占比,2006:51%,2007:48%,2006:38%,2007:32%,8/19/2024,141,现金流量充裕率,8/19/2024,142,自由现金流量,8/19/2024,143,中国电信的现金流量,现金性资产,205,8/19/2024,144,财务弹性与还本付息,能力,会 计,年 度,中 国 移 动,中 国 联 通,现金性,资 产,自由现金流量,银行贷款总额,现金性,资 产,自由现金流量,银行贷款总额,2001,368,115,261,433,-175,434,2002,437,284,444,192,-81,468,2003,563,417,325,101,14,472,2004,653,446,212,53,49,461,2005,1,064,675,365,58,141,242,2006,1,535,624,389,122,188,255,2007,1,885,635,336,73,69,39,2007中国电信:现金性资产205; 自由现金流量339; 银行贷款1013,2021H1: 2117,8/19/2024,145,