纺织行业相关知识的讲义课件

纺织行业相关知识的讲义AgendavSchedule*StartStop*Breaksevery50minutesvSocraticmethodvMaterials:notebook,supplementalnotes,benchmarkingpracticesvHomework:Olympicswebsites.Eachteam2articlesaboutcostsorschedule.NoteWebSitevTestonSundayvBeijingOlympicscasestudyvCultureFranks biovEducation:MBAfromUofToledo,DoctoratefromNovaSoutheasternU,PMP.UOPDocLeadershipChair;GWU;UofCaliforniafaculty.vLeadership:CEOof5companies;4boards,2trustsvWriting:7leadership&projectmanagementbooks.Manyarticles.BoardofBest Practices Journal.vProject Management:Projects inover20countries.PMI Activities:Standards,Research,Academiccommittees.Benchmarking:LeadTop500ProjectManagementBenchmarkingForum.120companies.vPersonal:Wife&3kids,liketofly.LiveinScottsdale,AZIntroduction to Scheduling&Cost Control DocumentFlowIntroduction to Scheduling&Cost Control WhyScheduling&CostControlareImportantvMajorproblemnowinI/Tindustry.300400%overestimates.vHelpsallocateresourcesvGuidesprojectperformancevEstablishesperformancebaselinesevaluateperformancevHelpsmanageprojectchangev80%ofprojectproblemsoriginateinplanningvPresentsimageofprofessionalismIntroduction to Scheduling&Cost Control ObjectivesoftheCoursevImprove career opportunitiesvImprove organizational performancevLearnestimatingthatisvalid,reliable,accurate.vApplyforecastingtechniquesvUnderstandriskestimating&evaluationvUnderstandtheWBS:itsimpactonscheduling,costing,riskanalysisvInvestigatethecriticalchainconceptvLearnprojectevaluationtechniquesvUnderstandprojectcontrolmethodsvDetailEVMtechniquesvLearnprojectcloseouttoolsIntroduction to Scheduling&Cost Control StructureoftheCoursevModule1:EstimatingvModule2:EstimatingbestpracticesvModule3:CostestimatingbasicsvModule4:ForecastingvModule5:Estimation&riskvModule6:WBS&schedulingintroductionvModule7:Criticalchain&timeboxedschedulingvModule8:ProjectevaluationvModule9:ProjectcontrolvModule10:EarnedvaluemanagementvModule11:Projectclose-outModules 1&2:EstimatingObjectivesofModules1&2vExplaintheimportanceofEstimatingvDescribeestimatingproblemsvPresentbestestimatingpracticesvExplainmeasurementtheory&practiceModules 1&2:Estimating Preamble 1-3PredictingtheFuturevHistorical*Prophets,seers,visionaries*Twocomponents(a)theprediction,(b)hadtocometrue.*Spiritual,mysticalovertonesvModern*Intuition*PragmaticvIncludes*Quantitativeanalysis:math,observe,measure,replicate*Qualitative:abstract(love,spirit),intuitionModules 1&2:Estimating(p 1-5)Formalvs.InformalEstimatesvFormalestimates:retainedaspartoftheprojectrecord.*Schedule*Budget*MemosvInformalestimates:norecordkept.*CasualdiscussionsandpredictionsModules 1:EstimatingTime,Money,Resources:Constraints&AssumptionsModule 2:Good EstimatingOther Estimating GuidelinesvPaddingestimatesmeanstheprojectstartsonaninaccuratebasevEstimatesfailtoadequatelyaccountforriskvScopechangesarenotaccountedforvEthicaldilemmasresultfrompoliticalpressureandlowballingvEstablishanaccuracystateofmindvUsetheprojectteamModule 2:Good Estimating Establish Clear Measurement Metrics vMetrics characteristics*Simple,easytounderstand,interpretandcompile,reliable,andcomparable*Lendthemselvestobeingrolled-upintoportfoliowidestatistics*EncouragebehaviorthatresultsinpositiveprojectandportfolioresultsvMetrics Problems*Measurement,compiling,analyzingandreportingofperformancemetricsareexpensive*Face-to-facemanagementofprojectsmaybesacrificed*Toomuchemphasisoneasy-to-obtain quantitative metricsModule 2:Good Estimating Potential Metrics Used vCustomersatisfactionvMilestonesvDeliverablesvCriticalpathmonitoringvPeriodicreviewsvFinancialandNontimebasedperformancemeasurementsvOtherquantitativemeasurementsvSubjectiveperformancemeasuresvPortfolioperformancemeasurementsvMeasurethecostofprofessionalprojectmanagersvThecostoftheprojectorganizationModule 3:Cost Estimating BasicsObjectivesofModule3vChartofaccounts&itsusevCostestimatingaccuracyvBudgeting;topdownvs.bottom-upvParametric/analogousestimatingvDesigningtocostvLevelofeffortestimatesModule 3:Cost Estimating Basics Basic Estimating ConsiderationsvTheprojectmanagerisresponsiblefortheprojectestimatesvEstimatingistimeconsumingandexpensivevEstimatetoanappropriatelevelofdetailvBudgetincashvIncludetheforgottenitems(maintenance,pettycash)vCommunicatethemannerinwhichestimatescanchangeModule 3:Cost Estimating Basics Communicate Assumptions and Level of Accuracy ConstructionI/S Order of Magnitude+75%to-25%+300%to+100%Budget Estimate+25%to-10%+100to+25%Definitive Estimate+10%to-5%+25%to-5%Module 3:Cost Estimating Basics Budget Type Impacts Speed,Efficiency and Effectiveness vBottom up budgets aredetailedvTop down budgetsarefastvZero base budgets justifyallexpensesandrevenuesvCheck-book budgetsareeasiestvPercentage base budgetingbuildsonasolidfoundationvProgressive and rolling budgetscompensateforscopechangesModule 3:Cost Estimating Basics Universal Code of Accounts Increases Budget Accuracy Through BenchmarkingModule 3:Cost Estimating Basics Percentage of Revenue:Combining top down&bottom up Prior Year%of Sales Next Year%of Sales (Same as Last Year)Cash inflowRevenue1,500,000100%1,650,000100%Cash OutflowCostofGoods1,000,00067%1,105,50067%-GrossMargin500,00033%544,50033%Direct Expenses:StoreRental72,0004.8%79,2004.8%Utilities26,0001.7%28,0501.7%Labor180,00012%198,000 12%Advertising120,0008%132,0008%-TotalExpenses398,00026%437,250 26%Indirect Exp50,0003.3%54,4503.3%PROFIT52,0003.5%52,8003.2%(roundingerror)vMostpopularmethodofforecasting&budgetingvAlwaysbudgetbasedonactualcashflows.Showcashinflowsandoutflowsnotpayablesandreceivables.Module 3:Cost Estimating Basics Define the Types of Costs Contained in the Budget vUsestandard coststoincreasespeedandeaseunderstandingvDirect costsareassociatedwithoneprojectvIndirect costs&overheadarespreadovermorethanoneprojectvBudget for direct or controllable expenses vVariable vs.fixed costs.Q:Equipment.Fixedcostof$1,500.Variableof$100perunit.Whatiscostof10extraunits?(A:$1,000)Module 3:Cost Estimating Basics Cost Basic Estimating Tools and Techniques vLearning curve*Parametrictool*Double#softimetodosomethingdurationoftimereduced.vLaw of diminishing returns.Q:extracostvs.extrarevenue.vDepreciationvCost management plan.Describesthemanagementofcostvariances(scopechanges)Module 3:Cost Estimating Basics Team ActivityThe Bid Proposal is the Toughest Budgeting Task Preparing the Bid ProposalYoursmallinformationsystemscompanyhasbeenaskedtobidaprojectforalarge,localoilrefinery.Thecompanyisknownforestablishinglongtermandprofitablerelationshipswithvendorsthathaveexhibitedsuperiorperformance.Itisimportantthatyourorganizationbeawardedthisbid.Youknowthattwoother,wellrespectedIScompaniesarealsobiddingthejob.Yourtaskistoprepareabudgetconsistingofyourbestestimateofthetruecostsoftheproject.Fromthis,selectabidprice.Clearlydifferentiatebetweenyourestimatedtotalcostforperformingtheprojectandyourbidprice.Rawdataisgivenonthenextgraphic:Module 3:Cost Estimating Basics Break Out:The Bid Proposal Raw Data ActivityEst.CostEst.TimeTot.Budgeted Cost1.Planning,prep.,drawings$1,500/dayfortheteam4-5days2.Hardware,webuildEstbuildcostis$20K,Weusuallymarkup45%3.SoftwareProgrammerpd$35/hr.Usuallybidat$75/hr30workdays4.VendorSW$300/computer.Plan6computers.Usuallymarkup25%5.InstallationInstallerspd$35/hr.Usuallybidat$75/hr8workdays6.TrainingInstructorspd$35/hr.Usuallybidat$75/hr5workdays7.FactoryOH20%ofprojectcost8.HeadofficeOverhead15%ofprojectcost9.ExWarranty2%ofprojectcost10.ShippingEst.$2,00011.Travel$350perdayEst4workdaysTotalModule 4:ForecastingObjectivesofModule4vNormativevs.extrapolativeforecastingvTrendextrapolationvMultipleregressionvDelphiMethodologyModule 4:Forecasting Budgets and Forecasts can be more Accurate vContingency reservesreduceriskofoverrunsinmeetingobjectivesvManagement reservesforunknownsvBudget for accuracy,use contingency funds for riskvApply contingency and buffer psychologyModule 4:Forecasting Parametric&Analogous Estimating Improve Accuracy through Simplifications vHeuristicsgivearoughideaofcosts.Grossmargininmanufacturingthistypeofproductis45%.vParametric estimates aresimpleformulas.ThelasthouseIbuiltlikethiswas$100perfoot.Thereforethecostwillbeabout$200,000.vAnalogous data isgainedfrompriorprojects.ThelasthouseIbuiltlikethiscostabout$200,000.Iwouldexpectthisonetobeaboutthesame.IncludesdatabasesliketheUCOAccounts.Module 5:Estimating&RiskObjectivesofModule5vImpactofriskonestimatesvEvaluationofriskfactorsvEstimatingriskvs.uncertaintyvIncorporatingpessimism(betadistributions)vTriangulardistributionsvMonteCarloAnalysisvRiskassessmentgroupsvLifecyclecostingvDatagathering/databasesModule 5:Estimating&RiskGenericRiskEvaluationMatrixModule 5:Estimating&RiskOtherSourcesofRiskIdentificationvWBS:StillananimportanttoolvStaffing plan:anypotentialpeoplerisks?vProcurement management plan:opportunitiesorrisksrelatedtovendors?Module 5:Estimating&Risk EMV:Most Popular Quantitative Tools for Risk Analysis(PMBOK p139)vStatistical independence:UsedforEMVanddecisiontrees.Tossingacoin.Eventsareindependentofeachother.vExpected monetary value:Impactedbyrisk proneness orrisk aversivenessAmountValueProbabilityOf WinningEMV$50.01$.50$2.10$.200.89$.00Total1.00$.70Module 6:The Work Breakdown Structure&Project Scheduling BasicsObjectivesvWorkbreakdownstructuredetailsofconstructionandbenefitsvWBSasbasisforcostingvWBSasbasisforschedulingvSchedulingbasicsModule 6:The Work Breakdown StructureWorkBreakdownStructuredefinestheScopeoftheProjectvWelovetheWBSvHeartoftheprojectplanninganddefinitioneffort.vTechniqueforbreakingdowntheprojectintoitscomponentelements.vNotmandatorybutimportantvNohardorfastrulesaboutputtingittogether.vNotaaschedulingtoolvDoesnotshowdependenciesModule 6:The Work Breakdown StructureWorkBreakdownStructureBenefitsvShowstheprojectvisuallyvBuildstheteamvFocusesondeliverablesvForcesplanningandmethodologyvIdentifiesworkpackagesandgroupsofactivitiesvServesasthebasisforscheduling,cost,specdetails,performancemeasurement,metrics.Module 6:Project Scheduling Estimating Considerations:How Long is Time?vWorkingtimeorworkdaysvProductivetimevElapsedtimevProductivitylevelvContinuousdurationvDurationinterruptibleModule 6:Project Scheduling Schedule Supporting Detail vResponsibility assignment matrix.Activitiesandwhoseisresponsible.vResource spreadsheet.Effortneededfromeachresourceduringeachtimeperiod.vResource Gantt chart.Wheneachresourceisscheduledpertask.vResource histogram.vAlternative schedulesvScheduled contingency reserves.Module 6:Project Scheduling Other Scheduling ConsiderationsvResourceLevelingAddstimeusuallyvResourceconstrainedschedulei.e.,cash,EinsteinvTime-constrained(Y2K).vReverseresourceallocationModule 7:Critical Chain&Time-Boxed Scheduling Objectives of the ModulevApplicationofcriticalchainasamanagementtoolvInvestigatethepsychologicaldimensionsofschedulingvUsingbufferstoincreaseschedulingaccuracyvTime-boxedschedulingtoincreaseprojectspeedvManagingtheplayersvMiscellaneoustime-boxedissuesModule 7:Time-Boxed Scheduling Increasing Project SpeedvMulti-functionalprojectmanagementvOverlappingprojectphasesvModularize(sub-projects)vValueanalysisvTimemanagementModule 7:Critical Chain&Time-Boxed Scheduling Multi-functionalProjectManagementModule 7:Time-Boxed Scheduling FastTracking:OverlappingPhasesModule 7:Time-Boxed Scheduling Modularize(Sub-projects)forspeedModule 7:Time-Boxed Scheduling FastTrackingvValueAnalysisforimprovedspeedandcost*Revieweachactivityrelatedtotimeandcost*Criticallyreviewtheprocesses*Reviewelapsedtimevs.worktime*CanactivitiesbedoneconcurrentlyModule 7:Time-Boxed Scheduling ValueAnalysisforSpeedPurpose:Thevalueanalysisisarigorousreviewofprojectcostsandworkpackages.Itisusedtoreducescheduledurationandcosts.ConsiderEliminationofanyprojectactivity,product,orservicecomponentthatdoesnotsatisfytheseevaluationquestionsvWhatarehighestpriorities?vItclearlycontributestovalue.vItstime&costisproportionatetoitsusefulness.vAlltheactivitiesandfeaturesareneeded.vItisthebestavailablefortheintendeduse.vItrepresentsthefastest&lowestcostmethodofattainingtheobjective.vItisfaster&lowercostthanastandardproductorcontractservicei.e.vItusesthepropertooling,equipment,(resources)andproceduresconsideringthevolumesinvolved.vItisfaster&lowercostthancomparablegoodsorservicesprovidedbysuppliers.vOurspeedisfastestandcostsarethelowestintheindustry.vItsspecificationsaretheleastrestrictiveneededtoachievetheobjective.vTherearenowaystoreducetime&costthatwehavenotconsidered.vCanweusestandardparts,components,approaches?Module 7:Time-Boxed Scheduling TimeManagementforSpeedvHighschedule&costdisciplinevBringinhigherqualityprojectleaderandteammembersvInvolvevendors&stakeholdersvWorklongerhours&weekends.vAddextrashifts.vAddpeopletocriticalpathvUseextraresourcestocompletenon-criticalpathworkpackagesearly.Freeresourceslater.Module 7:Time-Boxed Scheduling Discipline Increases Project SpeedvPositivedefinitionfromtheGreek:totrain,instruct,correctvMostresearchaboutteensvWhyneeddiscipline:*Humannaturetoresistbeingforced;toquestionauthority*Desirepeerrecognition,attention,power,revenge,feelinadequatevMostproblemsareminorandeasytoresolvevPeopleandteamswantdiscipline*Expectorderliness*Fewerdistractions*Clearexpectations*Moreproductivity*ReducesstressModule 7:Time-Boxed Scheduling Discipline Increases Project Speed(p2)vHowdiscipline*Theleaderiskey*Bearolemodel*Bevisible*Acceptresponsibilityforsubordinatesbehavior*Signalawareness*Solicitdisciplineinput*Focusontheobjective*Delegatedisciplineauthority*Clearrules,standards,punishments*TreatpeopleasindividualsModule 8:Project Evaluation ObjectivesvUnderstandtheimportanceofprojectevaluations*Pre-project*Mid-project*Post-projectvEvaluationmethodologyModule 8:Project Evaluation Audits Give an Arms Length,Objective and Independent Pictureof Project Performance vTheauditisaformalprocessvAudittimingincreaseseffectivenessvCompositionoftheauditorsisimportantvMeasurethevalueoftheauditModule 8:Project Evaluation ReviewingtheProjectasaManagervStartwiththebigpilesofmoneyvDeterminethatthetotalnumbersarelogicalvApplysimpleratios,heurisms,parametricdataandstandardsvReviewthebudget/schedulefoundation&assumptions.Stillvalid?Module 8:Project Evaluation Killing Projects Gone Astray vThestrategicaspectsofprojectterminationvTerminatingtroubledprojectsvThefinancialbenefitsofrapidprojecttermination*Freesfundsforotherinvestments*Executemoreprojectswiththesameresources*GenerateincrementalrevenuesModule 9:Project Control ObjectivesvFunctionofcontrolinprojectmanagementvUseofvariancesvManagementbyexceptioninprojectcontrolvVariances:schedule,budget,resourcesvToolsforresourcecontrolvMeasuringcontroleffectiveness Module 10:Earned Value Management Earned Value:Measures Cost and Schedule Performance with MoneyModule 10:Earned Value Management Earned Value FormulasvMeasuring Costs Budget vs.Actual Performance*CostVariance(CV)=EV-AC*CostPerformanceIndex(CPI)=EV/AC*EstimateatCompletion(EAC)=BAC/CPI*ToCompletePerformanceIndex(TCPI)=(BAC-EV)/(BAC-AC)vMeasuring Schedule Forecasted vs.Actual Performance*ScheduleVariance(SV)=EV-PV*SchedulePerformanceIndex(SPI)=EV/PVModule 10:Earned Value Management Cost Control:Earned ValueCV=EV-AC(150-250)=($100,000)CPI=EV/AC(150/250)=.60/60%EAC=BAC/CPI=$1,000,000 BAC EV 600-150TCPI=-=-=1.28 BAC-AC 600 250 SV=EV-PV=150-200=($50,000)SPI=EV/PV=150/200=.75/75%Module 10:Earned Value Management Earned Value Offers Benefits for Specific ApplicationsvAhighdegreeofaccuracyisrequiredvWhenmilestonesaretooinfrequenttouseforscheduleevaluationvOnprojectswithoverlappingprojectphaseswheretherearefewconvenientplaceswheremilestonescanbeplacedvWhentherearenumeroussub-projectsandthevariouselementsprogressatdifferentratesv50/50ruleappliesforactivitiesinprogressModule 10:Earned Value Management Earned Value Allows Continuous Tracking of PerformanceModule 11:Project Closeout vDelivertheproductorservicevTerminationcelebrationvTerminationchecklistsmaintainprofessionalismvKnowledgelibrary.Lessonslearned,projectjournals,keydocumentsvCommunicatethebenefitsModule 11:Project Closeout Knowledge Libraries Transfer Knowledge and Reduce Costs vLessonslearnedpreventproblemrepeatsvProjectjournalstelltheprojectstoryvProjectdocumentationspeedsplanningforfutureprojectsScheduling 251ClassProject:PlantheBeijing2008Olympics(p1)1.Itshouldbea1hourPowerPointslideset.Thereisnowrittenpaper.Formostlocations,therewillnotbeanactualpresentation.Evenso,theslidesshouldbeinteresting&entertaining.2.IncludeaWorkBreakdownStructure(WBS)to3levels.Forexample,thetoplevelwouldbeBeijing2008Olympics,Thesecondlevelwouldbethevarioussub-divisionssuchassportingvenues,environmentalprojects,socialprojects.Thethirdlevelwouldbetoselectoneofthesecategoriesandbreakitdownintoitcomponents.Forexample,sportingvenuescouldbebrokendownintoswimming,socceretc.3.Includeatopdownscheduleto4levels.ThiswouldfollowthesameformatastheWBS.However,thestudentwillgotoafourthlevelwithoneitem.Forexample,theymightselectswimmingandbreakthatcategorydownintoitsmajorcomponentssuchasswimmingarena,participanthousing,etc.ThentheycouldshowasimpleGanttChartforeachcategory.Thisshouldnotbedifficultasprojectionsareshowninthedocumentsdevelopedbythegovernmentandshowninclass.