第六章 投入产出技术与经济系统分析

单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,*,第七章投入产出技术与经济系统分析,利用投入产出表可以计算多个经济系数，建立各种数学模型。投入产出表派生出来的大量系数和参数本身具有重要的经济意义，同时也可以进行不同时间、不同地区、不同部门的对比分析；投入产出数学模型可以提示更深层次的经济联系，从总体上观察国民经济的发展状况，便于宏观经济分析和调控。,第一节经济联系分析,为了便于分析说明，下面将中国,2000,年投入产出表合并为包括农业、工业、建筑业、运输邮电业、商业饮食业、其他部门的六部门表。根据此表可以计算,2000,年我国投入产出表的直接消耗系数和完全消耗系数。,直接消耗系数表,农业,工业,建筑业,运、邮,商、饮,其他,农业,0.153,0.058,0.004,0.001,0.054,0.007,工业,0.205,0.569,0.543,0.346,0.276,0.230,建筑业,0.002,0.001,0.001,0.020,0.004,0.028,运、邮,0.014,0.024,0.069,0.039,0.031,0.066,商、饮,0.019,0.041,0.065,0.020,0.086,0.039,其他,0.029,0.026,0.050,0.059,0.114,0.114,2000,年投入产出表完全消耗系数表,农业,工业,建筑业,运、邮,商、饮,其他,农业,0.233,0.188,0.125,0.079,0.142,0.075,工业,0.706,1.619,1.605,1.050,0.983,0.857,建筑业,0.007,0.008,0.010,0.026,0.013,0.037,运、邮,0.043,0.081,0.130,0.081,0.078,0.109,商、饮,0.062,0.127,0.154,0.079,0.152,0.095,其他,0.072,0.105,0.137,0.117,0.197,0.178,一、直接经济联系分析,（一）、投入产出表本身体现的经济联系分析,1,、中间产品流量：,列向直接反映,j,部门对其他部门的依存关系及程度，列的总和是,j,部门年度内消耗的产品总量。,行向反映,i,部门产品分配给各个部门用途中间投入的数量，行的总和是该部门当年生产的中间产品的总量。,2,、最终产品流量：,反映各部门生产的消费产品、投资产品和出口产品的数量。,3,、初始投入（增加值）流量：,是各部门固定资产折旧、劳动者报酬、生产税净额和营业盈余的数量,.,这些数据本身直接反映国民经济各部门与经济总体之间、各部门之间的技术经济联系。,（二）,.,直接消耗系数分析,直接消耗系数反映了任何两个部门之间的直接经济联系，其值越大，部门之间的联系越紧密。可以将各部门的直接消耗系数从大到小排列，以反映部门之间的经济联系的强弱。,部门消耗系数是部门内生产单位产品的平均消耗定额，因此可以用部门内每一企业的消耗系数与它进行比较，从中可以看出各企业消耗水平的部门平均消耗水平的差异，并分析其原因。,各部门的直接消耗系数从大到小排列表,农业,工业,0.205,48.56%,农业,0.153,36.19%,其他,0.029,6.93%,商、饮,0.019,4.51%,运、邮,0.014,3.31%,建筑业,0.002,0.51%,工业,工业,0.569,79.17%,农业,0.058,8.05%,商、饮,0.041,5.65%,其他,0.026,3.60%,运、邮,0.024,3.39%,建筑业,0.001,0.14%,建筑业,工业,0.543,74.16%,运、邮,0.069,9.49%,商、饮,0.065,8.89%,其他,0.050,6.85%,农业,0.004,0.53%,建筑业,0.001,0.08%,运输邮电业,工业,0.346,71.37%,其他,0.059,12.17%,运、邮,0.039,8.06%,商、饮,0.020,4.09%,建筑业,0.020,4.06%,农业,0.001,0.25%,其他部门,工业,0.230,47.40%,其他,0.114,23.55%,运、邮,0.066,13.55%,商、饮,0.039,8.14%,建筑业,0.028,5.83%,农业,0.007,1.53%,商业饮食业,工业,0.276,48.785,其他,0.114,20.13%,商、饮,0.086,15.26%,农业,0.054,9.50%,运输邮电业,0.031,5.56%,建筑业,0.004,0.77%,可以从表中百分数的大小清楚地看出部门之间的依存关系及其强度。例如，运输邮电业,83.54%,的消耗来自工业和其他部门，建筑业,74.16%,的消耗来自工业部门，而对工业、商业饮食业、其他部门及运输邮电业的消耗达到总消耗的,99.39%,。工业部门自身的消耗达到总消耗的,79.17%,对农业的消耗达到总消耗的,8.05%,，两者之和达到,87.22%,。,（三）直接消耗系数的矩阵分析,即综合消耗系数分析。该方法是根据直接消耗系数矩阵的基本经济意义，对其各行列元素分别求和，并得到相应的解释。,1,、列向求和,定义为,j,部门的物质消耗系数，它反映了,j,部门与所有部门的直接经济联系，越大，说明某一部门与所有其他部门之间的联系越紧密。,2000,年六部门投入产出表各列向和,2,、行向求和,直接消耗系数矩阵各行元素的和反映了所有部门生产与某一部门生产之间的求与供的关系。同行元素是各部门对,i,种产品的单位消耗，所以反映了各个部门对第,i,种产品的消耗总量。而直接消耗系数矩阵的行向结构系数就是,j,部门对,i,种产品的单位消耗占全部,n,个部门单位消耗总量的比例。,