程序基线管理方案分析

,Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,*,),Planning Process Baselining,1,程序基线,2,CollectingDatato Characterize theCurrent Process Output (Y),The objective is toreport howtheprocess isperforming atpresent.,ShortTermVariation,Longtermprocess capability,Variation,Centering,Stability,How are the independent variables changing astheprocess runs its course?,Datacollectionwillbe designed toanswer these questions,3,收集数据用,以,以描述目前,程,程序结果(,Y),以汇报目前,程,程序运行情,况,况为目标,。,短期,差异,长期程序能,力,力,差异,集中,稳定,各独立的变,量,量是如何在,程,程序运行过,程,程中发生,差异,的。,数据收集专,为,为回答这些,问,问题而设计,。,。,4,The Effects ofVariation,Therearetwo typesof variation.,Common Cause Variation,Variationthatis inherent inthe existing process,Assignable(Special)Cause Variation,Variationthatcan be segregated and assignedto aspecificcause.,Our process analysismethods will be plannedto enableus toseparateand evaluate both kinds of variation.,5,差异,的影响,差异,存在两种。,常规原因,的差异,差异,固定存在于,现,现有程序中,。,。,（特殊）原,因,因,的差异,差异,可以被隔离,并,并被归因于,一,一特定原因,。,。,程序分析方,法,法将使我们,能,能有效分离,及,及评估两种,差异,。,6,Common Cause Variation,Thisvariationis presentin everyprocess.,It cannotbe controlled or reducedwiththe existing technology.,It limitsthe process capability.,In processbaselining, wemeasure this variation by theamount ofvariationin the short term subgroups,oftencalled rational subgroups.,s,ST,willrecord thecommon cause variation and Z,ST,willreport theShort Term Capability.,Another term for Common CauseVariationis Residual.,Sincethisvariationis related toprocess technology,a poor Z,ST,willgenerallyindicate aneedforaddressingpartor process design issues.,7,常规原因的,差异,此,差异,存在于每一,程,程序中。,运用现有技,术,术是不能控,制,制或减少此,差异,。,此,差异,限制了程,序,序能力。,在程序基,线,线内，我,们,们运用短,期,期子群内,的,的,差异,量来测量,差异,，短期子,群,群即为通,常,常所称的,合,合理子群,。,。,s,ST,记录常规,差异,，,Z,ST,报告短期,能,能力。,常规原因,的,的,差异,的另一术,语,语为残差,。,。,由于,差异,与程序技,术,术相关联,，,，因此一,个,个相对差,的,的,Z,ST,会显示需,要,要,重新描述,部,部分程序,设,设计。,8,Assignable CauseVariation,Thisvariation is the resultofoutsideinfluences on aprocessthatcause it toshift and drift.,It is potentially controllable withtheexistingtechnology,It willaffect the process performance overtime.,We plantheprocessbaselining in such awayasto maximizetheopportunityforcapturing the affectofassignable causevariation.,s,LT,willrecordthetotal assignablecause variation. Z,LT,willreportthetotal long termcapability.,In ordertoaddressthisvariation,well need to know how the various vitalfactorscontributeto causing it.Thiswill betheobjective of Analyze.,9,可归属,原因的,差异,这种,差异,是外来因,素,素影响程,序,序运行的,结,结果。,运用现有,的,的技术有,潜,潜在的可,能,能来控制,此,此,差异,。,随着时间,的,的推移，,此,此,差异,将会影响,到,到程序运,行,行。,我们所计,划,划的程序,基,基线是以,最,最能捕获,可归属,原因的,差异,为基本。,s,LT,记录总体,可归属,原因的,差异,，,Z,LT,能报告总,体,体长期能,力,力。,为了描述,此,此,差异,，我们需,要,要知道各,种,种对于引,起,起此,差异,起相当作,用,用的重要,因,因素。这,就,就是分析,的,的目的。,10,ExamplesofAssignable CauseVariation,Transportation,TypevehicleType Roads,LocationofTerminusWeather,RawMaterials /Supplies,PercentRegrindMaterial Properties,People,ExperienceTraining,Environment,TemperatureHumidity,Manufacturing,ToolWearShutheight,Commercial,InternetconnectionspeedKeystrokes,11,特殊原因,变,变化举例,运输,车辆类型,道,路类型,终点,位置,天气,原料/供,应,应,再研磨百,分,分率,原,原料属性,人,经验,培,培训,环境,温度,湿,湿,度,度,制造,工具磨损,模具冲压,尺,尺寸,商用,互联网连,接,接速度,键击,12,RationalSubgroup Data,A Rational subgroupis asmall collection ofsamplestaken overa shortperiod of time or insimilarconditions.Webelievethedata isasfreeaspossiblefrom multiple levels ofassignablecauses.,It is asnapshotoftheprocess.,MultipleRational Subgroup samples are the basisforquantifyingprocessvariation to reflect both shortterm and long termcapability,.,Collecting datain thismanner allows ustocharacterize:,Technology (Short Term)vs Control (LongTerm),Centering vs. Spread,Characterizing the issues isa GiantStep towards resolvingthem,13,合理子集,数,数据,合理子集,指,指的是在,短,短时期或,在,在相似条,件,件下获得,的,的一小组,样,样本的集,合,合。我们,认,认为这些,数,数据可以,自,自由获取,于,于不同级,别,别,可归属,的原因。,这是对程,序,序的快照,。,。,多重合理,子,子集样本,是,是量化程,序,序,差异,的基本，,可,可同时反,映,映短期和,长,长期的能,力,力。,这样的数,据,据收集方,式,式使我们,能,能够描述,：,：,技术（短,期,期）,vs,控制（长,期,期）,集中,vs.,离散,描述问题,是,是解决问,题,题的重大,步,步骤,14,Short Term Capability,Z,ST,(Z ShortTerm)isa measure of technologicalcapability.,Internalprocessvariation drives shorttermcapability.,Z,ST,is calculated assuming the process is centered on the process target.,ThegoalforZ,ST,is 6.0.,Short Term Capability isalso knownas,ProcessEntitlement,ProcessPotential,Technology of the Process,ThemeasureZ,ST,is the bestyourprocesscanbe.,15,短期能力,Z,ST,(Z,短期 ）,是,是技术能,力,力的测量,方,方法。,内部程序,变,变化驱动,短,短期能力,。,。,Z,ST,的计算基,于,于下列假,设,设，即该,程,程序是集,中,中以程序,目,目标为中,心,心。,Z,ST,的目标值,为,为6.0,。,。,短期能力,应,应被概括,为,为,程序应有,能,能力,程序潜能,程序技术,Z,ST,能使你的,程,程序最优,化,化,16,LongTerm Capability,Z,LT,(Z LongTerm) isa measure of the totalvariation oftheprocessoutputovertime.,Datacollectionperiod mustbe longenough or undera rangeof conditions that allowopportunityforexternal factors toinfluence the process.,BothProcessVariation and Process Control drivelong term capability.,Z,LT,is calculated usingtheactual measuredmeanofthedata.,TheLongTerm Capabilityrepresentswhatthecustomer sees.,ThegoalforZ,LT,is 4.5,Z,LT,is alsocalled Process Performance,17,长期能力,Z,LT,(Z,长期,),是程序结,果,果总体,差异,的测量方,法,法。,数据收集,时,时期必须,足,足够长，,或,或在一定,范,范围条件,下,下允许外,来,来因素有,机,机会影响,到,到程序发,展,展。,程序,差异,和程序控,制,制驱动长,期,期能力。,Z,LT,使用实际,测,测量获得,数,数据的平,均,均做计算,依,依据。,长期能力,代,代表客户,所,所见到的,部,部分。,Z,LT,的目标值,是,是,4.5。,Z,LT,也被叫做,流,流程绩效,。,。,18,Z -A Measure ofProcessCapability,Z ShortTerm,Z ShortTermismeasuredusing observedvariation and the targetmean.,TheZ reported is due toshort termvariation only.,Z Long Term,Z Long Termis measuredusing both the observedvariation and the observed mean.,Becausethedistancebetweenthemean and spec limitmaybedifferent for each speclimit, ZLong Term is calculatedforeach spec limit.,Z Benchis the ZScore of the summationof the probabilitiesofa defectatboththeupper and lowerspec limit.,where,19,Z,值程序能,力,力的测量,Z,短期,Z,短期是运,用,用观测所,获,获,差异,值和目标,平,平均值来,测,测算。,所获,Z,仅归因于,短,短期,差异,。,Z,长期,Z,长期是运,用,用观测所,获,获,差异,值和观测,所,所获平均,值,值来测算,的,的。,由于对于,每,每个规格,限,限制，平,均,均数和规,格,格限制的,间,间隔有可,能,能是不同,的,的，因此,Z,长期需根,据,据每个规,格,格限制分,别,别计算。,Z Bench,是缺陷在,高,高规格限,制,制和低规,格,格限制概,率,率总合的,Z Score,。,where,20,ProcessControl- Shift,Themeasureof the ability to control the process isactually the differencebetweentheLong Term Capability and the ShortTermCapability.,On average Z,SHIFT,is about1.5fora typical process,21,程序控制,SHIFT,控制程序,能,能力的量,度,度事实上,即,即是长期,能,能力和短,期,期能力的,差,差。,平均起来,，,，一个典型,程,程序的,Z,SHIFT,大约为1.5。,22,Using the Approximate Z,SHIFT,Howam Idoing?,Comparethecalculated ZSHIFT to1.5.,If lessthan1.5, your process control is betterthan average.,If significantlygreaterthan 1.5, the control is worsethanaverage.,If onlylongterm data is availableassume the shiftandadd1.5toZLTto estimateZST.,TypicalHistorical Datasituation,If onlyshort term datais availableassumetheshift and subtract 1.5 fromZSTto estimateZLT.,Typicalnewtoolingqualification situation,Howam Idoing?,Comparethecalculated ZSHIFT to1.5.,If lessthan1.5, your process control is betterthan average.,If significantlygreaterthan 1.5, the control is worsethanaverage.,If onlylongterm data is availableassume the shiftandadd1.5toZLTto estimateZST.,TypicalHistorical Datasituation,If onlyshort term datais availableassumetheshift and subtract 1.5 fromZSTto estimateZLT.,Typicalnewtoolingqualification situation,1.5,Z,SHIFT,is an approximation.Use itwith caution!,23,使用近似,Z,SHIFT,我做,得,怎么,样?,将计算而,得,得的,ZSHIFT,数值与,1.5,做比较.,如果小于,1.5,则你的程,序,序控制优,于,于平均水,平,平。,如果较1.5大许,多,多，则程,序,序控制次,于,于平均水,平,平。,如果仅有,长,长期数据,可,可用，则,可,可假设,shift,并在,ZLT,值上加1.5来估,计,计,ZST,值。,典型历史,数,数据情况,如果仅有,短,短期数据,可,可用，假,设,设,shift,并在,ZST,值上减去1.5来,估,估计,ZLT,值。,典型的新,工,工具资质,条,条件,1.5,Z,SHIFT,是一近似,值,值。请谨,慎,慎使用！,！,！,24,SixSigma Comparisons,LongTerm Capability,Actual Process Performance,Z,LT,C,PK,6,s,means,Z,LT,=4.5C,PK,=1.5,Short Term Capability,TheBesttheprocesscanbe,Z,ST,C,P,6s means,Z,ST,=6.0,C,PK,=2.0,25,6,s,比较,长期能力,现实程序,绩,绩效,Z,LT,C,PK,6,s,方式,Z,LT,=4.5,C,PK,=1.5,短期能力,程序状态,最,最优,Z,ST,C,P,6s,方式,Z,ST,=6.0,C,PK,=2.0,26,PlanningBaselining,Withtheprojectadvocacy team,identifytheindependent(X)variables to berecorded asyoucollectbaseline data.,EvaluatemeasurementcapabilityfortheidentifiedY,sandX,s.,Designtheplantoprovideopportunityfortheidentifiedindependentvariablestochangeasmuchaspossible.,Takemanufacturingprocesssubgroupsoverdifferentshifts,afterdifferentsetups,withdifferentoperatorsorafterrawmaterialshavechanged.,Designtheplansothatvariationwithinsubgroupsislimitedtocommoncause.,Recordthevaluefortheoutputcharacteristic(Y)andthevaluesfortheapplicableX,sforeachobservation.,Themoredatayoukeepthebetter.Itwillimproveyourabilitytofindandidentifyvitalfactors(X,s)intheanalyzephase.,27,基,线,线,由,项,项,目,目,成,成,员,员,确,确,立,立,识,识,别,别,独,独,立,立,（,（,x,）,）,变,量,量,，,，,并,并,记,记,录,录,为,为,基,基,线,线,数,数,据,据,。,。,对,于,于,Y,s,和,X,s,进,行,行,测,测,量,量,能,能,力,力,的,的,评,评,估,估,。,。,设,计,计,能,能,尽,尽,量,量,提,提,供,供,机,机,会,会,，,，,使,使,所,所,要,要,识,识,别,别,的,的,独,独,立,立,变,变,量,量,发,发,生,生,变,变,化,化,的,的,有,有,效,效,方,方,案,案,。,。,在,不,不,同,同,的,的,轮,轮,班,班,期,期,内,内,，,，,装,装,备,备,、,、,操,操,作,作,者,者,改,改,变,变,后,后,或,或,原,原,料,料,更,更,换,换,后,后,，,，,选,选,取,取,不,不,同,同,制,制,造,造,程,程,序,序,子,子,集,集,。,。,设计能,将,将子集,内,内的,差异,仅限于,常,常规原,因,因的计,划,划。,对于每,次,次观测,，,，记录,结,结果（,Y）,的值和,可,可相应,的,的,X,值。,记录数,据,据越多,越,越好。,有,有利于,在,在分析,阶,阶段中,，,，提高,发,发现和,识,识别重,要,要因素,（,（,Xs,）,）,的能力,。,。,28,PlanningBaselining (cont.),Collect enoughdata so as to be surethe estimate of processperformancehas stabilized.,Clarify withthe teamthatthey mustnot biasthe resultsbychangingthe waythey do things.Donot TWEAK!,IftheProject,“,“Y”isdiscrete, youwill likelyneed asignificantlylargersample size.,29,基线（,续,续）,收集足,够,够数据,以,以确保,程,程序绩,效,效估计,的,的稳定,性,性。,向项目,组,组明确,，,，不能,因,因偏好,某,某一结,论,论而改,变,变行事,方,方式。,如果,Y,是离散,的,的，你,很,很有可,能,能需要,更,更大的,样,样本。,30,RationalSubgrouping,RationalSubgroupsare often bestdefinedbyusingsimilar tools as structuredproblemsolving.AFishbonediagramwith thefive M,sandand Ecan be agreatplacetostart.,Manpower(People),Method,Measurement,Machinery,Material,Environment,31,合理地,划,划分子,集,集,合理子,集,集通常,被,被恰当,地,地定义,为,为用相,似,似工具,结,结构化,地,地解决,问,问题。,如,如下所,述,述，即,可,可恰如,其,其分地,说,说明合,理,理子集,。,。,人手（,人,人）,方式,测量,机器,材料,环境,32,RationalSubgrouping,Inmanufacturing,anapplianceplantusedextrudedgaskets manufacturedata supplier.Inordertoproperlyevaluatethe processand thepart quality, it is necessarytoestablishaBaselinemeasurementusingRationalSubgroups.,Potential Xs,Rational Subgroups,Extruders,Collect parts made on each available extruder,Cut five (5) measurable cross-sections of the part from a five foot length for a single subgroup,Multiple Shifts,Capture data 2 3 times per shift for all shift,Material lots of rubber,Allow multiple batches of raw materials, recording CTQ batch characteristics,Extruder Set up,Allow for at least to process shutdowns and new setups.,Allow time for process to stabilize after start up prior to taking measurements,33,合理子,集,集,在制造,业,业，一,家,家设备,制,制造工,厂,厂使用,在,在另一,供,供应商,生,生产的,压,压延垫,衬,衬。为,了,了能恰当评,估,估过程,和,和部分,品,品质，,有,有必要,使,使用合,理,理子集,来,来建立,基,基线测,量,量法。,潜在的,Xs,合理子集,挤压机,收集每个挤压机上生产出来的压延垫衬,在,压延垫衬,上横切出五件可量度的,样本,来作一子群,多班工作制,对于所有轮班，每次轮班提取2-3次数据。,橡胶原料,使用多批原料，记录,CTQ,批量特征,挤压机器装配,至少允许停工和重新的装配。,.,在机器启动后，给予时间使程序达到稳定运行才作测量。,34,RationalSubgrouping,InCommercial Projects asimilarprocess is used.A keydifference is thatfactorsaregenerally categorical ratherthan measurable.ForaBilling Error Problem, theplan might lookmorelike this.,Potential Xs,Subgrouping Plan,Customer,Record the customer for the bill,Billing method,Capture billing information from both electronically generated bills and paper transactions,Operator,Capture bills generated by all billing department agents,Product Line,Capture bills generated for product in each of the key product lines,35,合理子,集,集,使用相,似,似的过,程,程在商,业,业项目,中,中。关,键,键的区,别,别在于,有,有关因,素,素是,分类,的而不,是,是可测,量,量的。,对,对于一,个,个票据,错,错误，,这,这个计,划,划更有,可,可能是,如,如下的,。,。,潜在,Xs,子集计划,客户,根据帐单，记录客户,结算方式,从电子记帐系统和手工记帐系统同时收集支付信息。,操作人员,收集所有产生于各单证部门的帐单。,生产线,收集产品帐单，该产品生产于各重要生产线上。,36,RationalSubgroupingExercise,Youare workingonaproject to reducethecycletimefordeliveryofproductacrossthe Borderfrom MexicotoTexas.,TheProjectY is “Hoursfrom releasefromJuarezplanttodeparture fromElPasoDistributionCenters.,Therearetwo distributionCenters in El Paso.,TherearethreeInternationalPortalsfrom JuareztotheUS.,Develop aBaseliningplan to collectdataandcharacterize thecurrent process.,Brainstorm alistofpotentialXs,IdentifywhichXsyou willsubgroupacross.Why?,DeterminewhichXs youwill justrecord.Why?,What willbethe sizeofthe subgroups?Why?,Howmanysubgroups.Why?,37,合理子,集,集选取,练,练习,你正从,事,事一个,项,项目，,该,该项目,目,目的是,减,减少从,墨,墨西哥,到,到德克,萨,萨斯货,物,物运输,周,周期。,项目,Y,是从,Juarez,工厂出,货,货到离,开,开,ElPaso,配送中,心,心的时,间,间。,在,ELPaso,有两个,配,配送中,心,心。,从,Juarez,到美国,有,有三个,国,国际入,口,口。,收集数,据,据设计,基,基线计,划,划，描,述,述当前,程,程序。,集体讨,论,论潜在,Xs,清单,确定哪,些,些,Xs,为子群,。,。为什,么,么？,决定需,要,要记录,哪,哪个,Xs.,为什么,?,子群大,小,小如何,。,。为什,么,么？,有几个,子,子群。,为,为什么,38,39,40,