中国PVC行业的发展机遇与挑战张国民

Click to edit Title Slide,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,中国,PVC,行业的发展、机遇与挑战,The development,opportunity and challenge of China chlor-alkali industry,中国氯碱工业协会 张国民,China,Chlor,Alkali Industry Association,Zhang Guomin,2008,年,11,月,一、中国,PVC,行业概况,The,status of China chlor-alkali industry,0,500,1000,1500,2000,2500,3000,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008E,2009E,2010E,6%,7%,8%,9%,10%,11%,12%,产能,Capacity,产量,Output,表观消费量,Apparent Consumption,中国,GDP,增长率,Chinas GDP Growth Rate,数据来源：,CCAON,Data Sources,：,CCAON,1,、生产状况,PVC,生产状况,Output/demand status of PVC,全球,PVC,中的地位,2007,年全球,PVC,总产量,3532,万吨，其中中国产量,950,万吨，居世界第一位。,2007,年世界,PVC,产量表 单位：万吨,地区,产量,所占比例,%,北美（包括墨西哥）,732,21,南美,143,4,欧洲（包括俄罗斯）,835,24,中东（包括印度）,193,5,中国大陆,950,27,日本,212,6,韩国、中国台湾,283,8,东南亚,184,5,合计,3532,100,二、中国,PVC,产业发展状况,1,、,2008,年,1-9,月份，中国国内氯碱及相关行业主要产品产量如下：,产品,2008,年,1-9,月产量（万吨）,同比增长,%,2007,年全年产量同比增速,%,PVC,717,5.0,19.8,烧碱,1454,8.7,17.0,盐酸,574,5.3,5.2,*数据来源：中国石油和化工经济数据快报,2,、价格状况,3,、进出口及需求状况,2005-2008,年中国聚氯乙烯产量、进出口量及表观消费量 单位：万吨,2005,年,2006,年,2007,年,2008,年,1-8,月,产量,649.2,823.8,971.7,651.4,进口,130.7,114.7,110.1,54.4,出口,11.9,46,71.2,50.9,表观消费量,768,892.5,1010.6,654.9,2007,年全球,PVC,需求量为,3525,万吨，其中中国需求,1000,万吨，居世界第一位。,2007,年世界,PVC,需求 单位：万吨,地区,需求量,所占比例,%,北美（包括墨西哥）,688,20,南美,165,5,欧洲（包括俄罗斯）,867,25,中东（包括印度）,329,9,中国大陆,1000,27,日本,128,4,韩国、中国台湾,184,5,东南亚,164,5,合计,3525,100,中国聚氯乙烯表观需求结构分析,目前我国聚氯乙烯消费分两大部分：,软制品。主要包括电线电缆、各种用途的膜（根据厚度不同可分为压延膜、防水卷材、可折叠门等）、铺地材料、织物涂层、人造革、各类软管、手套、玩具、塑料鞋以及一些专用涂料和密封剂等。,硬制品。主要包括门窗、各种型材和管材、硬片、瓶等。,近几年，我国聚氯乙烯消费构成变化较大，硬制品比例不断提高，现在我国硬制品比例已近,60%,。据不完全统计，各种聚氯乙烯制品消费构成比例见下表。,制品名称,消费比例,%,合计,%,软,制,品,鞋及鞋底材料,5.2,40.8,人造革,6,薄膜,12,电缆料,7,地板革、壁纸、发泡材料,2.1,其他,8.5,硬,制,品,管材,13.3,59.2,管件,2.3,型材、门窗,22.9,硬片、板材及其他型材,9,其他,11.7,4,、生产工艺,中国电石法、乙烯法工艺比例,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,电石法,47,46,39,35,37,30,28,乙烯法,53,54,61,65,63,70,72,注：乙烯法包括进口,EDC,、,VCM,原料,全球,PVC,工艺基本为乙烯法,PVC,70%,2%,9%,78%,11%,不同工艺路线生产结构如下：,The construction of PVC production technology:,电石法,Carbide route,进口,VCM,法,Import VCM,进口,EDC,法,Import EDC,其中电石法产量规模最大,占到总产量的,78%,EDC,法最小,只占总产量的,2%,。,The output of carbide route accounts for 78%,and import EDC only accounts for 2%.,乙烯法,Ethylene route,5,、装置规模,年生产量,(,万吨,),/Annual output,(in 10,000t),生产企业数,Number of,plants,占全国产量比例,Proportion to national,output,30,5,25,2030,6,18,1020,16,27,10,53,30,10,万吨以上企业,27,家，占全国产量比例,70%,。,聚氯乙烯生产企业规模状况,6,、原材料价格走势,7,、装置开工状况,8,、项目投资建设状况,9,、经济效益情况,二、积极推动氯碱行业可持续发展,（一）宏观政策调控,氯碱（烧碱、聚氯乙烯）行业准入条件,氯碱（烧碱、聚氯乙烯）行业准入条件,The Access Standard of Chlor-Alkali(Caustic Soda,PVC)Industry,更严格的市场准入,More strict access standard,东部地区不能新建电石法,PVC,New acetylene-based PVC units are forbidden to be build in eastern regions of China,新（扩）建规模,30,万吨,/,年,The capacity of new plant or expansion will reach 300 KMT/yr,新建电石法,PVC,企业必须同时建电石渣综合利用装置,禁止采用普通金属阳极、石墨阳极、水银电解槽,The technologies of metal anode,graphite anode and mercury electrobath are forbidden in China,新、改扩建严格的产品单位能耗核算标准,The strict standard of product unit production energy consumption for new or expansion plant,推广循环经济理念，提高能源利用率,Popularizing the recycling economy,enhancing the utilization ratio of energy,安全、健康：环境保护,Safety and health:environmental protection,准入要求（有资质单位设计）,Access required(designed by qualified company),有资质单位进行环境、健康、安全评价,Assessments on new plants of environment,health and safety are organized by qualified companies,现有企业废弃物排放的规定、监控,Rules and supervision of the discharge of wasteon the current companies,监督与管理,Supervision and management,投资、验收、监管、石化与氯碱协会协助监管,Investment and inspection are supervised by CPCIA and CCAIA,烧碱、聚氯乙烯清洁生产评价指标体系,Clean production assessment index system of caustic soda and polyvinyl chloride production,氯碱行业（烧碱、聚氯乙烯清洁生产标准,The standard of clean production of caustic soda and polyvinyl chloride,（今后对清洁生产达标企业有鼓励政策）,（,encouraged policy for the companies that reaches the standard of clean production in the future,）,废弃物（气、液、固）排放指标,Discharge index of waste(gas,liquid and solid),主要原料、能源消耗指标,Index of main raw material and energy consumption,工艺、技术、装备要求,requests on technics and equipments,管理要求,requests of management,国家强制性能耗标准,National standard of energy consumption,烧碱单位产品能源消耗限额,The norm of energy consumption per unit product of caustic soda,对不同品种隔膜法、离子膜法的综合能耗、交流电耗有具体限定,Limit on comprehensive energy consumption and consumption of alternating current of diaphragm grade and membrane grade caustic soda,分三个等级（现有企业限额值、目标值和新建企业准入值,Divided into three levels(limit level and target level for current company,access level for new build company),电价等调控政策,policy on electricity price,限制类：加收,20%,电力价格,Restriction catalog:added 20%of electricity price,淘汰类：加收,50%,电力价格,elimination catalog:added 50%of electricity price,关于鼓励利用电石渣生产水泥有关问题的通知,Notification on encouraging the utilization of carbide slag to produce cement,循环经济,Recycling economy,关于鼓励利用电石渣生产水泥有关问题的通知,Notification on encouraging the utilization of carbide slag to produce cement,4,月,30,日，发改委下发了,关于鼓励利用电石渣生产水泥有关问题的通知,，鼓励电石渣综合利用，对全部利用电石渣替代天然石灰石生产水泥项目的规模和工艺将放宽限制。同时鼓励规模较小的电石渣聚氯乙烯企业通过与周边水泥企业或其他可消纳电石渣的企业合作，使电石渣得到充分利用。,On 30th April,NDRC published“Notifi