公司财务案例1-紫雪糕

Klicken Sie,um das Format des Titel-Masters zu bearbeiten.,Klicken Sie,um die Textformatierung des Masters zu bearbeiten.,Ebene 1,Ebene 2,Ebene 3,Ebene 3,Ebene 3,Ebene 1,Ebene 2,Ebene 2,Ebene 1,ESKIMO,PIE,公司,IPO,估值,17,May 2010,All trademarks are owned by Socit des Produits Nestl S.A.,Vevey,Switzerland.,Content,1,、,Introduction,2,、公司,IPO,绝对估值,3,、相对估值,4,、,Suggestion,5,、,End of the Eskimo Pie Story,附录,A,股,IPO,估值方法、程序及案例,估值方法差异及应用,IPO:initial public offering,1,、,DCF,自由现金流估价模型,我们尝试使用,公司自由现金流量折现,得出的爱斯基摩派公司的独立价值。,从图表上看，,1991,年至,1993,年（此后，公司进入了一个持续增长的稳定状态，,1991-1993,年高增长，年均,30%,，,1994-2001,按,6%,年增长，以后基本稳定，长期增长率假设为,2%,）,指包括公司股东权益和债权人、股东等长期利益相关者在内的现金流总和,FCFF,EBIT,（,1,税率）折旧资本性支出 追加营运资本,计算,WACC,公司自由现金流,FCFF,公司自由现金流,FCFF,1991,1992,1993,EBIT,5,255,000.00,5,873,000.00,5,363,000.00,5,682,000.00,税率,51.31%,40.00%,40.00%,40.00%,EBIT*(1-,税率,),2,558,621.82,3,524,043.67,3,217,598.55,3,409,200.00,加：折旧,1,352,000.00,1,352,000.00,1,352,000.00,1,352,000.00,减：资本支出,1,311,000.00,0.00,1,000,000.00,500,000.00,加：营运资金的净变动,1,386,000.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,FCFF,3,985,621.82,4,876,043.67,3,569,598.55,4,261,200.00,非现金性流动资本变化,流动资本,11,735,000.00,11,735,000.00,11,735,000.00,11,735,000.00,非现金性流动资本变化,905,000.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,公司自由现金流,FCFF,EBIT,（,1-,所得税率）折旧资本支出非现金性流动资本变化,应该扣减财务利息收入，分红之后将不再存在,FCFF 3,阶段模拟增长估值,第一阶段,1991E,1992E,1993E,FCFF,4,876,043.67,3,569,598.55,4,261,200.00,第二阶段,1994E,1995E,1996E,1997E,1998E,1999E,2000E,2001E,FCFF,4,516,872.00,4,787,884.32,5,075,157.38,5,379,666.82,5,702,446.83,6,044,593.64,6,407,269.26,6,791,705.42,FCFF,估值,现金流折现值（万元）,价值百分比,第一阶段,10,929,486.06,25.41%,第二阶段,17,617,931.31,40.96%,第三阶段（终值）,14,467,620.79,33.63%,企业价值,AEV,43,015,038.16,100.00%,净债务,2,000,000.00,-4.65%,总股本价值,41,015,038.16,95.35%,股本（万股）,3,316,000.00,每股价值（元）,12.37,假设,数值,第二阶段,(1994-2001),年数,8,第二阶段增长率,6.00%,长期增长率,2.00%,应付债券利率,0.00%,无风险利率,Rf,7.42%,1.23,Rm,7.50%,Ke,16.67%,税率,40.00%,Kd,4.64%,Ve,13774000,Vd,2000000,WACC,15.14%,FCFF,敏感性测试,敏感性测试,敏感性测试结果,长期增长率,(g),WACC,1.00%,1.50%,2.00%,2.50%,3.00%,3.50%,4.00%,4.50%,5.00%,12.50%,14.96,15.23,15.53,15.86,16.23,16.64,17.09,17.60,18.18,13.00%,14.32,14.56,14.82,15.11,15.43,15.78,16.17,16.61,17.10,13.50%,13.73,13.94,14.17,14.43,14.70,15.01,15.35,15.72,16.14,14.00%,13.19,13.37,13.58,13.80,14.05,14.31,14.61,14.93,15.29,14.50%,12.69,12.85,13.04,13.23,13.45,13.68,13.94,14.22,14.53,15.00%,12.22,12.37,12.54,12.71,12.90,13.11,13.33,13.58,13.85,15.50%,11.79,11.93,12.07,12.23,12.40,12.58,12.78,12.99,13.23,16.00%,11.39,11.52,11.65,11.78,11.93,12.10,12.27,12.46,12.67,16.50%,11.02,11.13,11.25,11.37,11.51,11.65,11.80,11.97,12.16,17.00%,10.68,10.77,10.88,10.99,11.11,11.24,11.38,11.53,11.69,17.50%,10.35,10.44,10.53,10.63,10.74,10.86,10.98,11.11,11.26,指标说明：,EV=,股权价值,+,债权价值,现金,EBITDA,EBIT,折旧 摊销,EBIT,营业利润财务费用,NOPLAT,EBIT,（,1,所得税率）,EBIT,所得税（只考虑核心业务，扣除非经常性损益）,IC,（,invested capital,）股东权益 长期借款 短期借款 应付债券 少数股东权益现金短期投资长期投资,ROIC,NOPLAT/IC 100,OPFCF,EBITDA,税收 净资本性支出 营运资本的增加,WACC,(KeVe),（,KdVd,）,/(Ve,Vd),Kd,债务成本 平均债务利率（,1,税率）（短期借款,短期借款利率长期借款,长期借款利率长期应付债券,长期应付债券利率）,/,（长期借款长期应付债券）,（,1,所得税率）,Ve,股本价值 股价,总股本（,H,股、,B,股按各自股价,汇率转换为人民币计算，非流通股按,A,股计算）,Vd,债务价值短期借款长期借款应付债券,Ke,Rf+,(,Rm,Rf),营运资本 流动资产 流动负债,公司自由现金流,FCFF,EBIT,（,1-,所得税率）折旧资本支出非现金性流动资本变化,股权资本自由现金流,FCFE,税前利润,（,1-,所得税率）折旧资本支出非现金性流动资本变化新增债务债务偿还,资本支出 长期资产总值增加无息长期负债增加长期资产净值增加折旧与摊销无息长期负债增加,2,、,PE&PB,估值,1,营业利润,净利润,账面净资产,PB,倍数,权益市值,PE,倍数,负债,E/TMV,权益加权贝塔,资产加权贝塔,本,&,吉利,10200000,3700000,26300000,4.2,110100000,29.8,2800000,0.98,1.2,1.17,132120000,得霍尔,37000000,15900000,113100000,4.7,534000000,33.6,44300000,0.92,1.4,1.29,747600000,卡洛琳,37400000,8800000,45100000,1.1,51400000,5.8,89800000,0.36,0.3,0.11,15420000,斯蒂夫,3900000,1800000,11100000,3.4,37400000,20.8,3100000,0.92,2.5,2.31,93500000,河系食品,463000000,219500000,1335000000,3.0,4002500000,18.2,282900000,0.93,1,0.93,4002500000,兔丝卷工业,47200000,25500000,152800000,4.8,728800000,28.6,0,1.00,1,1.00,728800000,简单平均,3.5,22.8,1.23,1.14,加权平均,3.2,19.9,1.05,紫雪糕公司,1991,年净利润,3749000,1991,年净资产,14681000,14093000,扣除股利，减少净资产,价格,PE,简单平均,25.77,22.8,加权平均,22.45,19.9,价格,PB,简单平均,15.63,3.5,加权平均,14.37,3.2,PE&PB,估值,2,PE,法,发行价格,25.77,22.45,特殊股利,4.52,4.52,每股总额,30.29,26.97,外发股份数,3316000,3316000,权益价值,85461807.6,74437811.77,股利,14988320,14988320,总计,100450128,89426132,1991,年利润,3749000,3749000,隐含的,PE,倍数,12.38,14.15,里诺兹的收入,拥有股份,2789000,2789000,每股收入,每股价格,25.77,22.45,特殊股利,4.52,4.52,每股总额,30.29,26.97,持有总额,84485949,75213957,PB,法,发行价格,14.37,15.63,特殊股利,4.52,4.52,每股总额,18.89,20.15,外发股份数,3316000,3316000,权益价值,47653510.87,51835227.02,股利,14988320,14988320,总计,62641831,66823547,1991,年利润,3749000,3749000,隐含的,PE,倍数,12.38,14.15,里诺兹的收入,拥有股份,2789000,2789000,每股收入,每股价格,14.37,15.63,特殊股利,4.52,4.52,每股总额,18.89,20.15,持有总额,52686389,56203520,估值结果汇总,估值结果汇总,估值方法,估值结果,估值区间,FCFF,12.37,11.39,14.05,PE,24.11,22.45,25.77,PB,15.00,14.37,15.63,指标说明：,EV=,股权价值,+,债权价值,现金,EBITDA,EBIT,折旧 摊销,EBIT,营业利润财务费用,NOPLAT,EBIT,（,1,所得税率）,EBIT,所得税（只考虑核心业务，扣除非经常性损益）,IC,（,invested capital,）股东权益 长期借款 短期借款 应付债券 少数股东权益现金短期投资长期投资,ROIC,NOPLAT/IC 100,OPFCF,EBITDA,税收 净资本性支出 营运资本的增加,WACC,(KeVe),（,KdVd,）,/(Ve,Vd),Kd,债务成本 平均债务利率（,1,税率）（短期借款,短期借款利率长期借款,长期借款利率长期应付债券,长期应付债券利率）,/,（长期借款长期应付债