企业及时制供应方案

按一下以編輯母片標題樣式,按一下以編輯母片,第二層,第三層,第四層,第五層,*,PART I Challenges,3,Winning as a Team,團隊致勝,Winning as a Team,If,complexity and variability,are what make supply chain management a hard,game to master, then the best tactics are those that lead to,simplicity and,stability,. Indeed, most of the innovations in supply chain management over,the past 20 years have attempted to both simplify and stabilize the flow of,demand, supply, and cash. These innovations include the extension of,just-in-,time manufacturing,techniques out to the supply chain, plus a variety of,specialized programs for managing the,replenishment of retail inventories,.,Unfortunately, the gains produced by these programs have often come at the,expense of other links in the chain, and that doesnt improve the,competitiveness of the chain as a whole,. A brief look at game theory reveals,why these programs are falling short and points the way to,the winning,strategy,:,integrating the members of the supply chain into a smoothly,functioning team by making sure that every members win contributes to the,success of all the others,.,倘若供應鏈管理不易精通是因為其複雜性(complexity)與變異性,(variability)，那麼最好的戰術就是設法讓系統變得單純(simplicity)與穩定,(stability)。的確，在過去20年間，大部分的供應鏈管理創新，都在企圖讓,需求(demand)、供應(supply)與帳款(cash)的流程可以簡單，而且穩定地進,行。這些創新的方法包括延伸及時制(JIT)生產技術於供應鏈上，以及數種,管理零售存貨補充的推動方案(programs)。不幸的是，這些推動方案所帶,來的收益常造成供應鏈其他連結(links)費用的增加，而無法提升整體供應,鏈的競爭力。本章簡單以賽局理論(game theory)探討，可以發現這些,推動方案有所不足之原因，並指出致勝策略之道：整合供應鏈成員成為一,個運作順暢的團隊，確保每位成員的獲勝會帶給其他成員的成功。,JIT Supply Programs(,及時制供應方案),JIT has transformed manufacturing,Of the many efforts to improve the flow of raw materials into,production facilities, most have involved extending the reach of,the just-in-time (JIT) manufacturing method upstream toward,suppliers.,One of the key elements of the JIT approach is,eliminating excess inventory,throughout the production,process by timing the movement of materials to each workstation,to arrive just at the moment they are needed for the next,operation,. This practice minimizes inventories throughout the,production process,helping manufacturing companies reduce,holding costs, minimize obsolescence, and improve their return,on assets,. These benefits have led to,the widespread adoption,of JIT throughout industries that use repetitive production,techniques,.,及時制改變了製造方式,在改善物料到生產設施間流程的許多努力中，常見的做法是,將,及時制生產方法,(just-in-time(JIT)manufacturing)向上延伸至供應,商端。及時制(JIT)方法的關鍵要素之一是，藉由排定投料到各,工作站地時間，讓物料根據下一個作業(next operation)所需適時地,送達，以減少生產過程中多餘的存貨。這樣的做法可以讓製程中的,物料存貨降到最低，讓生產工廠降低存貨持有成本，減少老舊存,貨，並且改善資產報酬率。由於有這些優點，使得及時制生產方法,廣泛地被應用於重複性生產技術的產業中(repetitive production techniques)。,JIT Supply Programs(,及時制供應方案),Frequent shipments reduce total inventory,Of the three inventories held in production facilities,the work-in-Process (WIP),inventory is most easily reduced using JIT. But WIP is usually the smallest and,least expensive of the inventories, and tackling the other two requires changing,the way suppliers deliver raw materials and customers receive finished goods.,In order to bring down the inventory of raw materials,JIT producers work with,their suppliers to switch over,from large shipments of materials,that go to,central receiving facilities,to small, frequent shipments,that go directly from,trucks to the factory floor,(Figure 3.1).,The change is a dramatic one, often,taking a company from monthly orders and shipments to multiple shipments a,day with precisely timed arrivals,. Most JIT producers have a similar program,on the outbound side, using small, frequent deliveries to minimize their,inventory of finished goods.,頻率高的貨件運送可以降低總存貨,在生產設施所持有的三種存貨類型中，在製品(WIP)最容易運用及時制方,法來降低存貨水準。然而，在製品存貨通常是其中占最小比率也花費最少,的部分，不過解決另外兩種存貨(原物料、製成品)問題必須改變供應商交,運原物料與交付顧客製成品的方式。為了降低原物料存貨，及時制生產工,廠與他們的供應商合作，將物料由大批量送到工廠中央物料倉庫的方式，,改為小批量高頻度直接由卡車送到生產線上(factory floor)的方式(見圖,3.1)。這是個相當巨大的改變，通常會將公司的月訂單月交貨模式改變,為嚴格到貨時間要求之1日數次配送模式。大部分及時制生產工廠對於外,向物流(outbound logistics)也有類似做法，即採用小批量高頻度的配送以降,低製成品存貨水準。,JIT Supply Programs(,及時制供應方案),Just-in-Time Supply,JIT Supply Programs(,及時制供應方案),JIT requires close partnerships with suppliers,As soon as manufacturers begin to make these kinds of changes. JIT,quickly expands from a production initiative to a much broader program,that requires systematic changes in supply chain management.,Toyota,the company that pioneered the JIT method in the 1970s, was keenly,aware of this aspect of its program, and it worked closely with its,suppliers to convert their operations to JIT as well, precisely,coordinating the flow of goods from suppliers to production plants,. In,order to support the close relationship required by this new kind of,production, Toyota used a uniquely Japanese form of joint partnership,called a keiretsu, with its key suppliers.,In Toyotas case, the keiretsu,involved taking a 20 to 50 equity position in each supplier and,replacing 20 of its key executives with Toyota personnel,.,及時制要求緊密的供應商夥伴關係,在製造廠陸續進行這些改變後，及時制很快地由生產推動方案擴展到更大,範圍的推動方案，要求供應鏈管理的系統性變革。豐田公司(Toyota)，在,1970年代發展出及時制，很清楚及時制的特性，並緊密地與其上游供應商,合作，將供應商作業也轉變成及時制，精準地調節從供應商到生產線的物,料流程。為了支援新生產方案所需的緊密關係，豐田公司(Toyota)與其主,要供應商間採用了獨特日本型態的聯合夥伴關係(joint partnership)，稱之,為,企業團,(keiretsu)。以豐田案例來說，企業團的做法涉及持有供應商,20%50%的股東權益，以豐田公司人員替換供應商20%的主要高階主,管。,JIT Supply Programs(,及時制供應方案),Simpler ordering reduces complexity,JIT practices offer important insights into how supply chains can be improved.,Although the apparent focus of JIT is on reducing inventory, the true spirit of,the method is a systematic pursuit of quality, one aspect of which is eliminating any,unnecessary complexity,. In the case of supply chain transactions,this philosophy has,led to a much needed streamlining of the order-shipment-payment cycle,.,Instead of,accumulating large orders mixing many different kinds of materials,producers place,many orders for individual materials,often paying for these materials on delivery,rather than accumulating lump sums,. In addition, a great deal of documentation has,been stripped away. For example,traditional orders are often eliminated in favor of,continuously updated delivery schedules, and billing documents may be eliminated,altogether,. One of the great contributions of JIT to supply chain management is to,provide a clear demonstration of just how simple the basic flows can become,.,簡單訂購方式降低了複雜度,及時制(JIT)提供許多關於供應鏈如何改善的重要洞察力。雖然及時制主要,著重在降低存貨，但這個方法的真正精神還是在於，以系統化方法追求品,質的提升，其中一個目標就是消除任何不必要的複雜性。在供應鏈交易的,情況中，這個哲學更須要求訂購貨件運送付款週期(order-,shipment-payment)的改善與順暢化。取代累積大量且訂購多種物料的訂單,方式，生產商依個別物料下不同的訂單，經常收料後即付款而不會積壓很,久再一次支付。此外，很多文件也不再需要。例如，傳統式訂單常被消,除，改用持續更新的配送排程表(delivery schedules)，而此同時，帳款文,件(billing documents)可能也不再需要。及時制方法論對於供應鏈管理的一,個主要貢獻，就是提供一個清晰的示範：基本流程可以是非常簡單的。,JIT Supply Programs(,及時制供應方案),Consistent performance reduces variability,Along with reducing complexity, the JIT philosophy of quality also seeks to,reduce variability in every stage of production,.,To this end, each operation is,analyzed, refined, and rehearsed until it can be completed both quickly and,consistently,. In the case of supply chains, this level of rigor not only,accelerates the movement of goods, it also adds an unprecedented level of,precision to deliveries.,This precision allows inventories of raw materials to be,reduced to a fraction of their normal levels without causing shutdowns on the,line.,一致性績效表現可以降低變異性,除了降低複雜性外，及時制品質哲學也尋求降低各個生產階段的變異性,(variability)。為達此目標，每一項作業都要加以分析(analyzed)、修正,(refined)與演練(rehearsed)，直至該作業可以快速且一致地完成。就供應鏈,來看，這麼嚴格的要求不僅加速貨物移動的速度，也達到前所未有的交貨,精確度。這樣的精確度使物料存貨可以降低其原有水準，也不會造成斷,線(shutdowns on the line)的情形。,JIT Supply Programs(,及時制供應方案),JIT can make supply chains fragile,Of course, not every form of variability can be eliminated, and,herein lies the downside,of JIT: It can make supply chains so fragile that any interruption in the flow of supplies,brings the entire chain to a halt,.,Toyota learned this in 1997 when a fire at one of its,suppliers shut down Toyotas production lines for an entire week,. The following year,strikes in two GM parts plants led to the shutdown of almost all of the companys,assembly plants within a matter of days,. A year later,seven DaimlerChrysler plants,and three GM plants were forced into half-shifts when flooding in one suppliers plant,created a shortage of a single part,. After the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001,many plants in the United States had to be closed due to breakdowns in the,transportation system. Ford, for example, shut down five North American plants due to,parts shortages, many of them due to delays in bringing trucks across the Canadian,border,.,及時制可能會使供應鏈更脆弱,當然，不是所有變異性的型態都可以被消除，及時制(JIT)的弱點在於：及,時制可能會讓供應鏈變得非常脆弱，以致於當物品供應流程中發生任何干,擾時，整個供應鏈會陷於停擺。1997年，豐田公司(Toyota)在一次發生在,其供應商的火災中學到教訓，當時讓豐田公司生產線不得不停工整個星,期。次年，兩個通用汽車(GM)零件工廠的罷工事件在幾天內幾乎使所有,公司組裝廠停擺。隨即1年後，七個戴姆勒克萊斯勒(DaimlerChrysler)工廠,與三個通用汽車工廠，因一個供應商遭洪水侵襲，無法供應某種零件而被,迫以半天班(half-shifts)的方式生產。在2001年911恐怖攻擊事件之後，因,運輸系統的癱瘓，許多美國工廠都必須停工。例如，福特汽車(Ford)，,因零件在通過加拿大邊境時發生延遲而造成短缺，必須暫時關閉五個北美,的工廠。,JIT Supply Programs(,及時制供應方案),Manufacturers are now cautious about JIT,Shutdowns such as these can quickly wipe out the savings associated with,reduced inventory levels.,For a large manufacturer, having a plant shut,down can cost as much as $10,000 a minute,. Given this kind of financial,impact, many firms that adopted JIT wholeheartedly are now rethinking their,position and taking a more conservative approach.,Honda, for one, now has a,policy of maintaining dual suppliers for all its raw materials,.,Ford, while,reaffirming its commitment to its JIT program in the wake of the terrorist,attacks, immediately began developing plans to stockpile engines and other,key parts at some U.S. plants.,製造商現在非常謹慎採用及時制,類此斷線停工狀況可以很快地侵蝕掉降低存貨水準所帶來的效益。對大型,製造商而言，停工所帶來的損失可以高達1分鐘1萬美元。由於有這樣的財,務面衝擊，許多熱切全心導入及時制的企業，現在開始重新省思他們的定,位，並且採用一種較保守的對應方式。本田汽車(Honda)，其申一例，現,在採用雙供應商政策以確保物料的供應無虞。福特汽車雖在恐怖攻擊後仍,重申貫徹及時制，不過卻開始計劃在數個美國工廠儲備引擎與一些關鍵零,組件。,JIT Supply Programs(,及時制供應方案),Simplicity and consistency remain key goals,Even with appropriate risk management,JIT isnt the right approach for every,supply chain,.,It doesnt work in job shops, which do not use production lines,and its not relevant to process manufacturing. Even within its natural domain,repetitive production, its not a good choice for low-volume products or for,products with uncertain demand,. But these are limitations, not defects; for the,right kind of production environment, JIT can lead to dramatic improvements.,More important, however, is the way the JIT effort illustrates how much can be,done to reduce complexity and variability in supply chains,.,JITs emphasis on,simplicity and consistency can be used to advantage at every link of the,chain, regardless of whether other aspects of the technique are employed.,簡單化與一致化仍為主要目標,即使有適當的風險管理機制，及時制不見得適用於所有的供應鏈。它並不,適合包件生產模式(job shops)，這種模式是沒有生產線的；它也不適用於,程序型生產模式(process manufacturing)。即使在其最適用的領域重複,生產模式(repetitive production)上，它也不適用於少量或不確定性高的產,品。但這些只是限制，不能說是缺點。用對生產環境的話，及時制可以帶,來可觀的改善。然而，更重要的是，投入及時制後所顯示大幅降低供應鏈,複雜性與變異性所產生的效果。無論是否要使用及時制的其他特色，及時,制在簡單化(simplicity)與一致化(consistency)上之重視，即可為供應鏈的每,個連結帶來優勢。,Retail Replenishment Programs(,零售補貨方),Retail replenishment is a tough problem,The second major class of supply chain programs deals with the distribution,side, and is concerned with replenishing retail inventories,Historically, the link,between retail stores and their immediate suppliers has been a difficult juncture,in the supply chain.,In the past, retail inventories were managed by,independent storeowners, who often lacked sophisticated tools for forecasting,demand and planning replenishment,.,Yet this is precisely the point in the chain,that can be the hardest to manage because it is the first point to feel the impact,of changing consumer preferences,. It is also the point where the chain becomes,visible to the consumer, so its critical to manage it well. If the desired product,isnt on the shelf when a consumer walks in to buy it, even the most perfect,sequence of supply operations is a failure.,零售補貨是個困難的問題,第二類主要的供應鏈方案處理的是配銷端的活動，是關於補充零售存貨的,機制。從歷史角度來看，零售店與他們直接供應商的連結，始終是供應,鏈中的一個問題點。過去，零售存貨是由個別獨立的店鋪所控管，他們通,常缺乏可協助預測需求與規劃補貨的精良工具。不過，這也可能是供應鏈,中最難以管理的設施點，因為零售店是位處於感受顧客偏好改變影響的第,一個據點。零售店也是消費者直接接觸供應鏈的那個設施據點，因此，妥,善管理零售點是很重要的工作。如果顧客走進店來想要購買時，需要的產,品卻不在貨架上，那即便是擁有最完美的供應作業也是個失敗。,Retail Replenishment Programs(,零售補貨方),Early efforts shifted control of inventory,The first generation of retail replenishment programs was based on shifting the,control of inventories (Figure 3.2). In the traditional arrangement, retailers,manage their own inventories and replenish them as they see fit. The problem,with this arrangement is that producers are often in a better position than,retailers to track emerging patterns in demand. In addition, producers can,remove cost and uncertainty from this link in the chain by centralizing control,of the replenishment process.,One way to leverage these advantages is,consignment, in which producers retain both ownership and control over,inventories of their products at a retailers site,. Consignment has proved to be,an effective tool for selling products that retailers might not be willing to carry,on conventional terms, but its not the first choice for producers because they,have to wait longer before they get paid for their products.,早期努力著重於存貨控制權的移轉,第一代的零售補貨方案著重在存貨控制權的移轉(見圖3.2)。傳統做法是，,零售商管理自己的存貨，並且根據他們認為的適合數量來補貨。這種做法,的問題是，生產者往往處在優於零售商的位置來追蹤正在浮現的需求型,態。此外，生產者可藉由補貨程序之中央控制方式來移除連結上的成本與,不確定性。一個平衡這些優勢的方法是寄售(consignment)，即委託生產者,保有商品的所有權與控制零售端的存貨。對一些零售商可能不願意以傳統,交易條款銷售的商品，供應商生產者寄售的做法已經被證實是個有效的,方式。不過這種做法對生產者而言，不會是第一個選擇方案，因為他必須,等候更長的時間來取得貨款。,Retail Replenishment Programs(,零售補貨方),Early efforts shifted control of inventory,Inventory,Management,Relationships,Retail Replenishment Programs(,零售補貨方),transfers ownership but not control,A more recent development,vendor-managed inventory (VMI),is shown in,the middle row of Figure 3.2.,The innovative aspect of VMI is the way it,separates control from ownership, both of which usually transfer at the same,time.,In VMI, a producer receives continuous updates on a retailers inventory,level and replenishes it as needed, with the retailer taking ownership of the,goods on delivery,.,This gives producers better visibility of sales of their,products, helping them anticipate demand and better plan supply.,The retailers,benefit because they no longer have to track inventory levels or place orders,for products under a VMI program,.,They also save money because they,usually need less inventory, sometimes as little as half of what they,would otherwise keep in stock,.,VMI移轉的是所有權但不是控制權,最近的一個發展為,供應商管理存貨,(vendor-managed inventory, VMI)方案，,參考圖3.2的中間部分。一般而言，所有權與控制權的移轉是同時發生的，VMI的創新觀點則是將所有權與控制權分開來處理。VMI的做法,是，生產商接收到零售商存貨狀況的連續更新資訊，並且負責補充零售商,所需；而零售商則在產品配交給顧客時取得所有權。這樣的做法讓生產商,可以更清楚地掌握產品的銷售狀況，協助他們預測需求並做好供應的規,劃。而零售商則因無須追蹤存貨水準與無須執行訂貨作業而獲益。雙方也,節省了成本，因為需要的存貨通常較少，有時甚至雙方持有存貨為原來一,半的水準。,Retail Replenishment Programs(,零售補貨方),Quick response applies JIT to the retail link,In addition to VMI, several other programs have been developed to smooth the,flow of goods through retail stores.,One of the earliest was the,quick response,(QR),program, an effort on the part of the apparel industry in the 1980s to,combine some of the techniques of JIT with technologies for monitoring,inventory levels in real time,. As shown in Figure 3.3,electronic,point of sale,(POS),systems automatically captured data about clothing sales as they,occurred, then transmitted this data to producers using,electronic data,interchange (EDI),connections,. Producers responded with daily shipments of,pre-tagged items that could go directly from their trucks to the selling floor.,快速回應將及時制應用在零售連結上,除了供應商管理存貨(VMII)之外；還有一些已經發展出來的方案，可以讓,貨物流通到零售店的過程更為順暢。早期方法之一就是,快速回應,(quick,response, QR)，為1980年代服飾業所提出，致力於結合及時制(JIT)方法與,即時監控存貨狀況的技術。如圖3.3所示，當衣服銷售發生時，電子,銷售,時點,(electronic point of sale, POS)系統自動擷取銷售資料，然後以,電子資,料交換,(electronic data interchange, EDI)方式傳送電子資料給生產商。生產,商將預先貼好標籤的產品，以每日出貨的方式由卡車直接配送至銷售場,所。,Retail Replenishment Programs(,零售補貨方),Quick response applies JIT to the retail link,The Quick,Response,Program,Retail Replenishment Programs(,零售補貨方),Continuous replenishment added VMI,In the late 1980s, the apparel industry rolled out an extension of the QR,program known as,continuous replenishment (CR). As shown in Figure 3.4,this program incorporated VMI for better inventory control, and it introduced,joint forecasting,so that,producers and retailers could pool their understanding,of consumer demand to better predict future sales.,Another important aspect of,this program was that,a replenishment agreement acted as a standing,purchase commitment,.,This allowed members of the program to eliminate,individual purchase orders altogether, further streamlining the replenishment,process.,持續補貨加入VMI機制,在1980年代後期，服飾產業進一步延伸QR的做法成為持續補貨,(continuous replenishment, CR)。如圖3.4所示，持續補貨結合了VMI 機制,以提供更好的存貨管理，它更導入聯合預測(joint forecasting)方法，讓生,產商與零售商可以整合對於顧客需求的瞭解，以更準確預測未來的銷售,額。這個方案的另一個要點是，一個持續補貨協議猶如一項有效的採購承,諾(standing purchase commitment)。這可以讓成員間均去除所有的個別訂,單，並進一步使補貨程序順暢化。,Retail Replenishment Programs(,零售補貨方),Continuous replenishment added VMI,Retail,Replenishment,Programs,Retail Replenishment Programs(,零售補貨方),ECR added category management,In 1993, the grocery industry launched its own version of continuous,replenishment, calling it the,efficient consumerresponse (ECR),program.,ECRs major contribution was the addition of category management, which,organizes promotion and replenishment activities around groups of products,that consumers view as roughly equivalent in satisfying their needs,.,This,addition helps grocery stores determine the best mix of products to put on their,shelves to make sure their customers needs are met even if there are,occasional shortages,. This program also encourages the use of activity-based,costing (described in Chapter 9) to determine the profitability of each product,category.,有效消費者回應加入品類管理機制,1993年，日用品雜貨產業(the grocery industry)開啟該產業自己版本的持續,補貨系統，也就是所謂的,有效消費者回應,(efficient Consumer response,ECR)陣ECR的主要貢獻在於加入,品類管理,(category management)機制，可,以組織消費者視為同類產品的促銷與補貨活動。這個附加功能讓日用品雜,貨產業可以決定上架的最佳產品組合，即使有時部分產品發生缺貨仍可以,確保顧客的需求得以滿足。這個方案也促成作業基礎成本制之應用(參照,第9章)，以決定每一產品類別的獲利能力。,Retail Replenishment Programs(,零售補貨方),programs attack complexity and variability,Like the JIT programs described earlier,retail replenishment programs reflect a,continuing effort to simplify and stabilize supply chain flows.,For example,the,elimination of orders in continuous replenishment removed a major source of,time and cost that added no value to the end consumer,. These programs also,pioneered important techniques for coping with variability, including some that,arent employed in the JIT effort.,Most notably, the use of real time data on,sales allows retailers to respond quickly to variations in consumer buying,patterns, and the addition of joint forecasting allows retailers to prepare for,some of these shifts before they hit the stores,.,這些方案均在對付複雜性與變異性,如前述及時制(JIT)般，零售補貨方案反映出簡化與穩定供應鏈流程的持續,努力。例如，持續補貨方案消除訂單之舉，移除了無法增加終端顧客價值,的時間與成本的一個主要來源。這些方案也開啟一些應付變異性的重要技,術，包括一些及時制(JIT)所未採用的技術。最顯著的是，銷售資料即時運,用可以讓零售商快速回應顧客購買型態的變動，並且如再加上聯合預測，,可以讓零售商在顧客購買型態變動對商店造成衝擊之前，預先做好準備。,Retail Replenishment Programs(,零售補貨方),CPFR is the most ambitious program yet,The most ambitious replenishment program to date is,collaborative planning,forecasting, and replenishment (CPFR), a multi-industry effort that was,formalized in 1998 (Figure 3.5),. Although CPFR is not a direct extension of,any of the preceding programs, it draws on the experience gained with all three.,Being the first clean-sheet design since the commercialization of the Internet,CPFR abandons EDI and private networks in favor of Internet communication,.,I