工期延期预警系统之研究

,按一下以編輯母片標題樣式,按一下以編輯母片,第二層,第三層,第四層,第五層,*,工期延迟预警,系统之研究,1,演示文稿大纲,前言,时程管控组织的建立,完整的时程规划,定期更新与改版,时程分析报告,时程分析方法,成果与效益,结论,与,建议,2,前言,进度延误是工程诉讼及争议主要原因,应有系统性方法 ，提供有用的进度管控信息以达：,工程管理透明化,防止进度产生延误,控制延误防止持续的扩张,技术、人才、程序与工具是达成完善管理的必要条件,预测的方法应简单，使每一个工程师都可以使用,3,时程管控组织的建立,厘清组织分工结构,建立时程管控架构,建立管控程序,制作程序,更新程序,改版程序,预警程序,4,厘清组织分工结构,John,Mary,Tom,5,时程管控,架构,的建立,主時程,合約時程表,中間時程,工作時程表,細部時程,詳細時程表,整體時程管控單位,整體時程管控單位,/,監造單位,/,主要工,程承包商或系統供應商,回報、更新,製作、修改,6,完整的时程规划,7,进度资料,工作分,工结构,作业项目,资源拉平,检查浮时,检查工期,中阶预定,进度表,纲要及,详细进度表,直接成本,合约数量,间接成本,比例分配,工期关系,时程规划流程,8,編碼原則,WBS编码,工程编码,作业编码,资源编码,本钱编码,9,定期更新与改版,時程表製作,送審備查或核定,送審核定第一版,備份,目標時程表第一版,現行時程表一月,更新,目標時程表第二版,修正改版,更新,現行時程表二月,預定日期,預估日期及實際日期,10,成本更新,进度更新,作业预估,预定,进度表,更新之,进度表,分析,预测,产生报告,11,时程分析报告,文字报告,摘要进度报告,时程根本资料,差异分析报告,要径作业报告,S曲线进度报告,三个月变动时程表,要径分析报告,12,S,曲线进度报告,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,基本設計,土建招標發包,機電招標發包,紅線CR1,紅線CR2,紅線CR3,紅線CR4,紅線CR5,紅線CR6,紅線CR7,紅線CD0,橘線CO1,橘線CO2,橘線CO3,橘線CO4,南機廠及行控中心,北機廠,大寮主機廠及訓練中心,軌道工程,電聯車,號誌,供電系統,通訊,月台門,自動收費,電梯電扶梯,機廠設備,土建整合測試與履勘,機電整合測試、營運模擬及履勘,基本設計,土建招標發包,機電招標發包,紅線CR1,紅線CR2,紅線CR3,紅線CR4,紅線CR5,紅線CR6,紅線CR7,紅線CD0,橘線CO1,橘線CO2,橘線CO3,橘線CO4,南機廠及,北機廠,大寮主機廠弓,軌道工程,電聯車,號誌,供電系統,通訊,月台門,自動收費,電梯電扶梯,機廠設備,土建整合測試與履勘,機電整合測試、營運模擬及履勘,Plot Date,4JUL02,Data Date,1JUL02,Project Start,12JAN01,Project Finish,30OCT07,*,(c) Primavera Systems, Inc.,Summary Bar/Early Dates,Critical Designator,Progress Bar,Milestone/Flag Activity,RM2F,Sheet,1,of,1,-Project Schedule-,Date,Approved,Checked,Revision,0,10,20,30,40,50,60,70,80,90,100,JAN,2001,MAY,SEP,JAN,2002,MAY,SEP,JAN,2003,MAY,SEP,JAN,2004,MAY,SEP,JAN,2005,MAY,SEP,JAN,2006,MAY,SEP,JAN,2007,MAY,SEP,Months,際進度,權重,整體預,定進度,整體實,際進度,單項預,單項實,2.97,1.55,0.45,5.43,5.26,7.19,7.24,4.29,3.88,5.58,0.16,5.28,3.95,5.71,5.70,2.31,1.90,2.89,4.77,4.48,1.39,3.34,1.37,0.88,0.85,3.07,1.33,3.10,3.68,100.00,定進度,九十一年度六月份整體S曲線進度表,2.81,0.75,0.37,0.59,0.18,0.22,0.30,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.05,0.12,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,5.44,2.91,1.07,0.34,0.33,0.23,0.19,0.16,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.06,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,5.28,94.80,48.18,82.19,10.88,3.35,3.01,4.11,0.00,0.00,0.00,33.39,2.36,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.62,0.50,0.51,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,98.00,69.01,75.32,6.11,4.34,2.71,2.16,0.00,0.00,0.00,34.96,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.01,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.01,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,作業名稱,Current Schedule S-curve,Target Schedule S-curve,020701,91-06 Update Progress,蕭水宏,李正剛,13,三个月变动时程表,14,时程分析方法,要径分析法,优点：简单、直接,缺点：可能高估单一作业所造成的延迟影响,常使用在诉讼、争议延迟鉴定、工期展延,完成价值分析EVMS,优点：以实际施作绩效进行预测,缺点：杠杆效应、不同施工类别绩效误用,1999年8月17日美国国防部正式签署采用EVMS于所有主要的技术采购案,高雄捷运局要求使用之分析方法,工率分析,15,分析-假設說明案例,契約開工日,87/2/9,契約預定,完成日,91/1/20,資料日期,90/05/02,使用日曆天,1177天,尚餘日曆天,265天,剩餘工期,百分比,18.38%,本月預定進度,3.74%,本月實際進度,0.15%,累計預定進度,78.70%,累計實際進度,49.48%,進度比較,-29.22,1.,累計預定進度78.70，累計實際進度49.48，落後,29.22,。,2,.本月完成進度,0.15%,，,較預定進度3.74為低，顯見進度執行率不佳,3.SPI=49.48/78.7=0.63。,待完成工期1442/.63-1177=1111天。落後1111- 265,=,847,天,4.,以90年14月平均進度0.16%分析，完成剩餘約50%之工程尚需,314,個月之,久,5.,經P3統計至90年4月30日止，要徑作業項目已延遲,244,日,16,SPI/CPI趨勢,17,成果与效益,成功达成预警成效，并迅速厘清责任,可完整建立时程管控体系,本司目前积极开展完成之PDA、ECMIS、GIS、GPS、更可结合预警程序的应用达成工程管理之目的,並更积极结合3D图形的建立，开展4D营建管理信息系统,18,建议,P3软件在EVMS局部的功能应可以再加强BCWP curve,P3在资源使用非线性时，有关工程复制、更新,资料格式应加强与其它程序互享的功能,19,结论,P3仍是目前大型工程时程管理上有效的工具,中华参谋已开展完整之时程管控程序，幷落实于多项管控计画,幷拥有精良的技术及管理人才约一千六百多人其中300余位各类科技师、约500位博硕士人才，跨足土木、水利、机械、生物科技、电机控制、营运管理、财经企划等专业领域,中华参谋工程司期与各界携手合作,20,21,