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单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,*,全球贸易政策的数量分析,GTAP,模型的原理及应用,林海,中国农业大学经济管理学院,概要,一、,GTAP,简介,二、学习的基础和教材,三、,GTAPAgg6,的使用,四、,RunGTAP,的使用,五、,GTAP,模型结构,一、,GTAP,简介,GTAP,模型简介,GTAP=Global Trade Analysis Project,，全球贸易分析项目。设立于,1993,年，是一个多区域、多部门,CGE,模型（可计算一般均衡，,Computable General Equilibrium),。,应用领域：贸易、农业、能源环境，等等。,静态,GTAP,、动态,GTAP,。,一、课程简介（续）,美国普度大学的全球贸易分析中心是,GTAP,模型的研究、运用和推广的事务局。目前，,GTAP,模型作为分析贸易投资自由化等经济效果的工具，在世界各国得到广泛的运用，成为全球性标准。,此外，由学界、主要的国际机构（,WTO,、,UNCTAD,、,OECD,、世界银行等）以及美国、欧洲、澳大利亚、日本等国政府和研究机构的代表所组成的理事会，对研究活动给予了大力支持。它已经成为拥有众多国际机构会员的世界性组织。,Dr. Hertel,purdue university,一、,GTAP,简介（续）,GTAP,模型的原理（数据结构、理论结构）,GTAP,模型的操作技术,掌握,GTAP,的基本结构和运用、为今后的深入研究和使用打下基础。,一、,GTAP,简介（续）,GTAP,模型的使用程序,确立问题、部门数和国家或地区,Aggregat,ion Scheme file,、,data base,（,GTAPAgg.exe,）,建立模型,（,RunGTAP.exe,）,模型的闭合、设计冲击、选择解法,检查和分析结果。,二、学习的基础和教材,理论基础,新古典经济学（微宏观经济学）。,国际贸易、或农业经济、或环境经济学，等等。,教材,Thomas W.H., 1997, Global Trade Analysis: modeling and applications, New York: Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.,Technical papers,working papers in GTAP web.,Hands-on by Ken Pearson.,GEMPACK user manual,二、学习的基础和教材（续）,参考资料,J. F. Francois and K. A. Reinert (eds.), 1997, Applied Methods for Trade Policy Analysis: A handbook, Cambridge: Cambridge U.Press.,Dervis,Kemal,Jaime De Melo and Sherman Robinson,1982,General Equilibrium model for development policy, New York: Cambridge U. Press.,二、学习的基础和教材（续）,参考资料,Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Statistics Division,（,United Nations,），,Handbook of input-output table compilation and analysis,，,New York : United Nations,1999,.,J.B.Shoven,&,J.Whaley,1992,Appling General Equilibrium,Cambridge U,niversity Press, England.,Grahan Pyatt & Jeffery I,.,.,Round,1985,Social Accounting Matrices,:,A Basis for Planning,A world Bank Symposium,Copyri,ght,1985,by,the internationl Bank for Reconstruction and Development/ The World Bank,.,二、学习的基础和教材（续）,参考资料,IFPRI,(International Food Policy Research Institute ),的入门资料,http:/www.ifpri.org/,Exercises in General Equilibrium Modeling Using GAMS by Hans Lofgren,；,A Standard Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model in GAMS by Hans Lofgren, Rebecca Lee Harris, and Sherman Robinson,ORANI,模型,http:/www.monash.edu.au/policy/oranig.htm,G: General?,对经济主体（家庭、企业、政府、贸易、投资者等）的行为有确切描述。,各部分（行业、家庭、投资者、净出口商等）之间相互联系相互作用，构成整个经济体。,（家庭效用最大化、企业利润最大化和成本最小化；其中，强调价格对家庭消费决策和企业生产决策的影响）,E:,E,quilibrium,?,市场均衡假定（通过价格的调整使得商品和要素的需求等于总供给）。,X,D,=X,S,价格内生。,D,X,(P,X,P,X,P,X,Y)=X,S,(P,X,P,X,P,X,T),(WALRAS,定理、机会成本体现了资源的有限,),C:,C,omputable,?,Numerical Solution,（,CGE,模型提供数值解）。,Analytical vs Numerical Solution,CGE,模型的数据基础,投入产出表（,IO table),、各种弹性值、社会核算矩阵（,SAM,）,CGE=AGE,AGE=,A,pplied,G,eneral,E,quilibrium,CGE,强调数据库、计算结果的阐述,AGE,体现了为特定的国家或地区的经济政策提供数量的分析,三、,GTAPAgg7,的使用,GTAP Database version 7.1,112,regions,57,commodities(sectors,),5 factors,GTAP,Sectoral,Classification (GSC),113 regions,Aggregat,ion Scheme file,的制作,四、,RunGTAP,的使用,读入加总数据,模拟方案,模型闭合,政策冲击,模拟求解,结果分析,五、,GTAP,模型结构,1,、,GTAP,的,sets,简介,2,、需求,3,、生产（要素投入、中间投入、税,/,补贴）,4,、国际贸易（出口税,/,补贴、国际运输成本、进口关 税）,Overview of the GTAP.TAB Structure,Preliminaries: FILES SETS READ statements of Base Data Common VARIABLES Common COEFFICIENTS Modules: 1. Government Consumption 2. Private Consumption 3. Firms 4. Investment, Global Bank, and Savings 5. International Trade 6. International Transport Services 7. Regional Household 8. Equilibrium Conditions Appendices: A. Summary Indices B. Equivalent Variation C. Welfare Decomposition D. Terms of Trade Decomposition,1,、,GTAP,的,sets,ViewHAR,软件：,阅读,和,编辑,har,形式的数据（,Header Array or HAR files,）。,BaseView.har,The dimension limits for Header Arrays are:,For real numbers: up to and including 7 dimensions,For integer numbers: up to and including 2 dimensions,For character strings: only one dimensional arrays are allowed, each string being of the same length,1,、,GTAP,的,sets,GTAP,数据,:,一维,四维。,文字：,GTAP data release identifier,，,SETS,的定义文件。,BaseData.har,、,BaseRate.har,、,BaseView.har,、,Sets.har,，等等。,GTAP,的,sets,：见,Sets.har,文件。,Aide-Memoire for Sets,|-|,| DEMD_COMM |,|-|,| ENDW_COMM | TRAD_COMM | CGDS_COMM |,|-|,| NSAV_COMM |,|-|,| PROD_COMM |,|-|,集合,TRAD_COMM,和,PROD_COMM,TRAD_COMM,Crops, OtherA, Mining,FoodP,LightM,HeavyM,Machinery,Utility,Construction,Services,PROD_COMM,Crops,OtherA,Mining,FoodP,LightM,HeavyM,Machinery,Utility,Construction,Services,CGDS (Capital Goods),Set,REG,# regions in the model #,maximum,size,10,read,elements,from,file,GTAPSETS,header,H1,;,Set,TRAD_COMM,# traded commodities #,maximum,size,10,read,elements,from,file,GTAPSETS,header,H2,;,Set,MARG_COMM,# margin commodities #,maximum,size,10,read,elements,from,file,GTAPSETS,header,MARG,;,Subset,MARG_COMM,is,subset,of,TRAD_COMM;,Set,NMRG_COMM,# non-margin commodities #,= TRAD_COMM - MARG_COMM;,Set,CGDS_COMM,# capital goods commodities #,maximum,size,1,read,elements,from,file,GTAPSETS,header,H9,;,Set,ENDW_COMM,# endowment commodities #,maximum,size,5,read,elements,from,file,GTAPSETS,header,H6,;,Set,PROD_COMM,# produced commodities #,= TRAD_COMM,union,CGDS_COMM;,Set,DEMD_COMM,# demanded commodities #,= ENDW_COMM,union,TRAD_COMM;,Set,NSAV_COMM,# non-savings commodities #,= DEMD_COMM,union,CGDS_COMM;,Subset,PROD_COMM,is,subset,of,NSAV_COMM;,For Endowments,|-|,| ENDW_COMM |,|-|,| ENDWM_COMM | ENDWS_COMM |,|-|,Coefficient,(,integer,parameter,) (,all,i,ENDW_COMM) SLUG(i),# sluggish primary factor endowments #,;,Read,SLUG,from,file,GTAPPARM,header,SLUG,;,Set,ENDWS_COMM,# sluggish endowment commodities #,= (,all,i,ENDW_COMM: SLUG(i)0);,Set,ENDWM_COMM,# mobile endowment commodities #,= ENDW_COMM - ENDWS_COMM;,Set,ENDWC_COMM,# capital endowment commodity #,(capital);,!,Subset,ENDWC_COMM,is,subset,of,ENDW_COMM;,1,、,GTAP,的,sets,阅读,GTAP,数据的基础,经济循环的过程；投入产出表的基本知识,主要经济主体：,firms,(producers),private household, and,government,are represented as economic agents.,Private household supply productive factors (labor and capital) to producers and obtain factor income in return.,Government revenues come from household income taxes, producers taxes, and taxes on international transactions (minus subsidies if exits).,1,、,GTAP,的,sets,投入产出表的基本知识,中间投入、原始投入、最终使用,等量关系。（横向、纵向、附加价值、,GDP,）,GTAP,的,Framework,（图、,Figure2.2,）,变量关系实例：,VFM: Value of Firms purchases at,M,arket prices,VFM(i,j,r) = pm(i,r) * qfe(i,j,r);,pm(i,r),# market price of commodity i in region r #,;,EVFA:,Endowments - Firms Purchases at,A,gents Prices,EVFA(i,j,r) = pfe(i,j,r) * qfe(i,j,r);,pfe(i,j,r),firms price for endowment commodity i in ind. j, region r,;,ETAX(i,j,r) = VFA(i,j,r) - VFM(i,j,r); VFA(i,j,r) = EVFA(i,j,r),ETAX(i,j,r),tax on use of endowment good i by industry j in region r,;,全球模型的价格传导过程,2,、需求,国内供给的,destinations?,Private households,Government,firms (Intermediates+investment),2,、需求,Regional household(h.h.) Expenditure = Income,_/|_,_/ | _,_/ | _,_/ | _,_/ | _,Private h.h. | Government h.h.,( PRIVEXP ) | ( GOVEXP ),_/_ | _/_,_/ _ | _/ _,/ | / ,Domestic Imported Savings Domestic Imported,Goods Goods ( SAVE ) Goods Goods,( VDPA ) ( VIPA ) ( VDGA ) ( VIGA ),Note: The coefficients at the ends of branches are,Base Data, e.g., VDPA, SAVE.,区域消费需求,私人家庭需求,Variable,(,all,i,TRAD_COMM)(,all,s,REG) ppm(i,s),# price of imports of i by private households in s #,;,Variable,(,orig_level,=1.0)(,all,i,TRAD_COMM)(,all,r,REG),pim(i,r),# market price of composite import i in region r #,;,Variable,(,orig_level,=VIPM)(,all,i,TRAD_COMM)(,all,s,REG) qpm(i,s),# private hhld demand for imports of i in region s #,;,Coefficient,(,ge,0)(,all,i,TRAD_COMM)(,all,r,REG) VIPA(i,r),# private consumption expenditure on imported i in r #,;,Private Households - Imports at Market Prices,Update,(,all,i,TRAD_COMM)(,all,r,REG) VIPA(i,r) = ppm(i,r) * qpm(i,r);,Coefficient,(,ge,0)(,all,i,TRAD_COMM)(,all,r,REG) VIPM(i,r),# private consumption expenditure on i in r #,;,Private Households - Imports at Market Prices,Update,(,all,i,TRAD_COMM)(,all,r,REG) VIPM(i,r)= pim(i,r) * qpm(i,r);,pim(i,r) # market price of composite import i in region r #;,VDPA(i,r),# private consumption expenditure on domestic i in r #,;VDPM(i,r),# private consumption expenditure on domestic i in r #,;,政府需求,（,VDGA,、,VDG,M,、,V,I,GA,、,V,I,G,M,）,government,的购买,VDGM(,TRAD_COMM,，,REG,),VDGA(,TRAD_COMM,，,REG,),VDGA-VDGM=?,企业需求,Firms,的投资购买,VDFM(,TRAD_COMM,CGDS,REG,),VDFA(,TRAD_COMM,，,CGDS,REG,),VDFA-VDFM=?,Firms,的中间使用,VDFM(,TRAD_COMM, PROD_COMM, REG,),PROD_COMMCGDS,VDFA(,TRAD_COMM, PROD_COMM, REG,),PROD_COMMCGDS,VDFA-VDFM=?,3,、生产,Production structure,qo(j,r) ao(j,r) / / / | / - CES / | / / | / / | / Land Labor Capital Domestic Foreign qfe(i,j,r) qfd(i,j,r) qfm(i,j,r) afe(i,j,r),qva(j,r) # value added in industry j of region r #,;,qf(i,j,r) # demand for commodity i for use by j in region r #;,3,、生产,(,原始投入,),EVFA-VFM=?,税,/,补贴,某国某一行业的,增加值,（,A,gents Prices,）,=,？,VOA(i,r),# value of commodity i output in region r at agents prices #,;,EVOA(ENDW_COMM, REG)= ? Endowments - Output at Agents Prices,Variable,(,all,i,NSAV_COMM)(,all,r,REG) ps(i,r),# supply price of commodity i in region r #,;,Variable,(,orig_level,=VOM)(,all,i,NSAV_COMM)(,all,r,REG) qo(i,r),# industry output of commodity i in region r #,;,Coefficient,(,ge,0)(,all,i,ENDW_COMM)(,all,r,REG) EVOA(i,r),# value of commodity i output in region r #,;,Update,(,all,i,ENDW_COMM)(,all,r,REG) EVOA(i,r) = ps(i,r) * qo(i,r);,3,、生产（中间投入）,VIFA,：,Intermediates - Firms Imports at Agents Prices,VIFA,（,TRAD_COMM,，,PROD_COMM,，,REG,）,VIFA(i,j,r),# purchases of imported i for use by j in region r #,;,VIFM(i,j,r),# purchases of imports i for use by j in region r #,;,VIFA-VIFM=?,VDFA : Intermediates - Firms Domestic Purchases at Agents Prices,VDFA,（,TRAD_COMM,，,PROD_COMM,，,REG,）,VDFM(i,j,r),# purchases of domestic i for use by j in region r #,;,VDFA(i,j,r),# purchases of domestic i for use by j in region r #,;,VDFA-VDFM=?,IFTAX(i,r,s) # tax on use of imported intermediate good i by j in r #;,DFTAX(i,j,r),# tax on use of domestic intermediate good i by j in r,;,2,、生产（总产出）,VOA,：,Value of Output at Agents Prices,VOA (TRAD_COMM,，,REG)=?,VOA+PTAX=VOM,VOM (TRAD_COMM,，,REG): Value of Output at Market Prices,如何计算,VOA,和,VOM,？,为生产,j,而使用的,i,的开支,:,Coefficient,(,all,i,DEMD_COMM)(,all,j,PROD_COMM)(,all,r,REG) VFA(i,j,r),# producer expenditure on i by j in r valued at agents prices #,;,Formula,(,all,i,ENDW_COMM,)(,all,j,PROD_COMM)(,all,r,REG) VFA(i,j,r) = EVFA(i,j,r);,Formula,(,all,i,TRAD_COMM,)(,all,j,PROD_COMM)(,all,s,REG) VFA(i,j,s) = VDFA(i,j,s) + VIFA(i,j,s);,Coefficient,(,all,i,NSAV_COMM)(,all,r,REG) VOA(i,r),# value of commodity i output in region r at agents prices #,;,Formula,(,all,i,ENDW_COMM,)(,all,r,REG) VOA(i,r) = EVOA(i,r);,为生产,i,而使用的、所有的,j,的开支合成,i,的产值,:,Formula,(,all,i,PROD_COMM,)(,all,r,REG) VOA(i,r) =,sum,(j,DEMD_COMM, VFA(j,i,r);,Coefficient,(,all,i,TRAD_COMM)(,all,r,REG) VDM(i,r),# domestic sales of i in r at mkt prices (tradeables only) #,;,Formula,(,all,i,TRAD_COMM)(,all,r,REG) VDM(i,r) = VDPM(i,r) + VDGM(i,r) +,sum,(j,PROD_COMM, VDFM(i,j,r);,Coefficient,(,all,i,NSAV_COMM)(,all,r,REG) VOM(i,r),# value of commodity i output in region r at market prices #,;,Formula,(,all,i,ENDW_COMM,)(,all,r,REG) VOM(i,r) =,sum,(j,PROD_COMM, VFM(i,j,r);,Formula,(,all,m,MARG_COMM,)(,all,r,REG) VOM(,m,r) = VDM(,m,r) +,sum,(s,REG, VXMD(m,r,s) +,VST(m,r);,Formula,(,all,i,NMRG_COMM,)(,all,r,REG) VOM(,i,r) = VDM(,i,r) +,sum,(s,REG, VXMD(i,r,s);,Formula,(,all,h,CGDS_COMM,)(,all,r,REG) VOM(h,r) = VOA(h,r);,VDM,国内销售部分、,VXMD,出口,FOB,部分、,VST,出口运费部分,(,贸易品不一定都有,),4,、国际贸易,（进口关 税、出口税,/,补贴、国际运输成本）,进口,VIWS(,TRAD_COMM, REG, REG,),Bilateral Imports at,World Prices,VIMS(,TRAD_COMM, REG, REG,),Bilateral Imports at,Market Prices,VIMS- VIWS=,关税和非关税贸易壁垒,MTAX(i,r,s,) =,VIMS(i,r,s,) -,VIWS(i,r,s,);,# change in ratio of import tax payments to regional income #,(,all,r,REG,) 100.0 *,INCOME(r,) *,del_taxrimp(r,) +,TIM(r,) *,y(r,) =,sum,(i,TRAD_COMM,sum,(s,REG,VIMS(i,s,r,) *,tm(i,r,) +,tms(i,s,r,),+,MTAX(i,s,r,) *,pcif(i,s,r,) +,qxs(i,s,r,),);,4,、国际贸易,出口（国际贸易矩阵）,VXMD(,TRAD_COMM , REG, REG,),Bilateral Exports at Market Prices,VXWD(,TRAD_COMM, REG, REG,),Bilateral Exports at World Prices,VIWS(,TRAD_COMM, REG, REG,),Bilateral,Imports,at World Prices,VXWD-VXMD=,出口关税,/,补贴,VIWS-VXWD=,运输成本（损耗，等等）,4,、国际贸易,国际运输,特殊的出口,VST(,MARG_COMM, REG,),Exports for International Transportation, Market Prices,SUM(,MARG_COMM, REG,VST(*, *),) =,SUM(,TRAD_COMM, REG, REG,VIWS (*, *, *),-,VXWD (*, *, *) ),其中的,MARG_COMM,=(otp,wtp,atp),otp Transport nec (Services),wtp Sea transport (Services),atp Air transport (Services),复习：（总产出）,VOA,：,Value of Output at Agents Prices,VOA (TRAD_COMM,，,REG)=?,VOA+PTAX=VOM,VOM,：,Value of Output at Market Prices,如何计算,VOA,和,VOM,？,同学请注意,UNCOMTRADE,数据下载方法及其在,GTAP,模型分析中的应用,STATA,使用方法简介,
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