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,*,单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,*,Managing China-US Energy Competition in the Middle East,YAO Lixia,1,Background: competition for strategic interests in ME,Chinas bid for Unocal in 2005,China will intensify emphasis on ME to secure energy resources.,China: a new competitor to the US in ME,2,Chinas rising involvement in ME,1960s and 1970s: national liberation movements-Beijing align with radical elements of the Arab world;,1980s: engagement mainly to support Chinas military modernization and economic development.,Since 1990s: rapidly rising demand, a new competitor for influence in ME,3,Chinas rising energy demand,By 2004: oil demand 6 million barrels/day,By 2030: oil demand 10 million barrels/day (80% will be imported),4,Chinas new engagement in ME since 1990s,Import light crude from,Oman,and,Yemen,Other Gulf producers:,Kuwait,and,UAE,Iraq,: Agreement to develop Iraqs second largest oil field (1997),Iran,: China successfully concluded a number of agreements; investment expected to exceed $100 billion over next two decades,Saudi Arabia,: “strategic oil partnership”- Chinas leading supplier of crude oil,5,Chinas new engagement in ME: beyond energy,Regular high-level official visits between Beijing and the region,Important exporter of manufactured goods and capital to the region,China: a long-term customer for oil exports,6,Chinas Going Out Strategy,What is going out strategy?,Why going out?,Whats the implications of the strategy?,Deeper engagement in ME: ME provides about 60% of Chinas oil.,7,Middle Eastern Perspectives: Iran,Forge strategic alliances with China,Benefits,:,Intl pressure over Iran nuclear activities,:,China provides intl political cover,Premiums,:,Deals with Chinese NOCs help Iran little in obtaining advanced exploration and production technologies. They are to bolster a developing political relationship.,8,Middle Eastern Perspectives: Saudi Arabia,Saudi was disturbed by US less-than-good performance on its ME policies.,Develop a robust strategic relationship,Benefits,:,Supplier of advanced weapons and related technology;,A safe haven for their oil wealth (recycle its liquidity).,Premiums,:,Not clear about whether the 2004 agreement between China and Saudi to develop Saudi nonassociated gas congruent with Saudis original goal;,Technologies transferred from Saudi to China.,9,Implications for US: Source of tension,Thwarted US efforts to impose sanctions on Sudan over Darfur genocide;,Complicated US attempts to refer Iran to UN security council for violating nonproliferation obligations;,Provide Iran strategic backing (challenge Western interests more assertively).,10,Implications for US: Chinese investment in Iran,ILSA inhibits Western energy investment in Iran.,The Bush administration failed to anticipate the possibility of Chinese-Iranian collaboration.,Chinese investment filled the vacuum.,Chinese investment exceeded the limits to trigger sanctions under ILSA.,The Bush administration not successfully isolate Iran economically.,11,Implications for US: Weaken strategic cooperation between US and Saudi,Both Saudi and China have sought to,draw down their dollar-denominated assets. ,Paving the way for OPEC to accept payment of oil in a basket of currencies rather than exclusively in dollars.,12,Manage the challenges: Energy security,Reduce Chinas demand for hydrocarbons by:,* Facilitate the transfer of nuclear technology to China, benefit US suppliers & reduce Chinas demand for oil imports,;,* Help China use coal more efficiently.,Persuade China to rely more on intl markets rather than exclusive supply deals.,13,Manage the challenges:,Energy security,-diplomatic approaches,Assure China that US will keep sea lanes open to China from Persian Gulf;,Encourage US oil companies participating in joint ventures with Chinese counterparts;,Encourage and facilitate Chinese membership in IEA.,14,Manage the challenges: Shared interests,Both China and US have the interests in preventing genocide in Sudan and nuclear weapons proliferation in Iran.,US needs to forge a regional security framework and give Beijing a clear stake in contributing to ME stability.,15,Discussion Questions,1. What characteristics differ ME from other regions where China has been keeping good relationships for its energy security, such as Russia and Central Asia?,2. Will Chinas political presence in ME be further enhanced, or will it be marginalized along with the U.S. back to Asia?,16,
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