报表分析逻辑切入点培训课件

Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,*,*,单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,*,*,*,基于战略的报表分析新思维,第一讲,报表分析逻辑切入点,8/26/2024,1,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,研讨要点与目的,阐述报表分析的逻辑切入点,基于M公司与GFC公司的案例分析,案例分析,德隆是被郎咸平搞垮的吗?,中石油应否“海归”？,电信业“春天的故事”还能唱响多久?,本讲旨在阐明报表分析的常见误区，把握报表分析的逻辑体系,8/26/2024,2,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,从一道考倒全世界顶级MBA的难题 看财务报表分析的逻辑切入点,三大核心问题,问题1,M公司与GFC公司孰优孰劣？孰强孰弱？,问题2,M公司与GFC公司股票市值的反差原因何在？,问题3,如何评价M公司与GFC公司的业绩？,8/26/2024,3,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,雇员规模：M公司v.s GFC公司,8/26/2024,4,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,经营规模-TA: M公司 v.s GFC公司,8/26/2024,5,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,经营规模-Sales: M公司 v.s GFC公司,8/26/2024,6,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,现金流量(CFFOA)：M公司v.s GFC公司,8/26/2024,7,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,股票市值：M公司v.s GFC公司,8/26/2024,8,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,财务实力-NA：M公司v.s GFC公司,8/26/2024,9,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,经营绩效-NI：M公司v.s GFC公司,8/26/2024,10,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,新经济与旧经济的强烈反差,财务数据：GFC v.s M,(2002),项 目,名 称,GFC公司,M公司,倍,数,G,F,C,合 计,M,雇员人数,36.5,35.0,36.8,108.3,5.05,21.45,资产总额,3,718,2,952,2,192,8,862,676,13.11,销售收入,1,860,1,626,1,750,5,236,284,18.44,现金流量,171,186,208,565,145,3.90,股票市值,200,196,313,709,2,541,0.28,股东权益,68,56,408,532,540,0.99,净利润,17,-10,55,62,78,0.79,ROE,25%,-18%,13%,12%,14%,0.86,8/26/2024,11,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,新经济与旧经济的强烈反差,财务数据：GFC v.s M,(2003),项 目,名 称,GFC公司,M公司,倍,数,G,F,C,合 计,M,雇员人数,32.3,32.8,38.4,103.5,5.7,18.2,资产总额,4,485,3,046,2,246,9,777,796,12.3,销售收入,1,855,1,642,1,719,5,216,322,16.2,现金流量,76,202,208,486,158,3.1,股票市值,218,259,453,930,2,915,0.32,股东权益,252,117,434,803,610,1.32,净利润,38,4.9,5.6,48.5,99.9,0.49,ROE,15%,4%,1.3%,6%,16%,0.38,8/26/2024,12,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,收入质量(Quality of Revenue),8/26/2024,13,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,收入质量,(Quality of Revenue),8/26/2024,14,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,利润质量,(Quality of Profit),GM: -89; 995;-146; Ford: -1057; -1153; -8857,8/26/2024,15,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,利润质量,(Quality of Profit),8/26/2024,16,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,毛利率,(Gross Profit Margin) (2003),8/26/2024,17,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,资产质量,(Quality of Assets) (2002),项 目,名 称,G,F,C,M,余 额,%,余 额,%,余 额,%,余 额,%,现金及等价物,214,5.8,297,10.1,145,6.6,387,57.2,应收款项,1,416,38.1,1,050,35.6,815,37.2,51,7.5,存货,100,2.7,70,2.4,183,8.3,7,1.0,长期投资,573,15.4,433,14.7,109,5.0,142,21.0,固定资产,358,9.6,364,12.3,755,34.4,23,3.4,GW&无形资产,146,3.9,66,2.2,58,2.6,17,2.5,其他资产,912,24.5,672,22.7,127,5.9,49,7.4,资产总计,3,719,100,2,952,100,2,192,100,676,100,8/26/2024,18,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,资产质量,(Quality of Assets) (2003),项 目,名 称,G,F,C,M,余 额,%,余 额,%,余 额,%,余 额,%,现金及等价物,548,12.2,337,11.1,180,8.0,490,61.6,应收款项,1,936,43.2,1,266,41.6,940,41.9,51,6.4,存货,109,2.4,92,3.0,188,8.4,6,0.8,长期投资,60,1.4,30,1.0,110,4.9,137,17.2,固定资产,726,16.2,754,24.8,722,32.1,22,2.8,GW&无形资产,48,1.1,72,2.4,59,2.6,34,4.3,其他资产,1,058,23.5,495,16.1,47,2.1,56,6.9,资产总计,4,485,100,3,046,100,2,246,100,796,100,8/26/2024,19,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,财务风险,(Debt Ratio),8/26/2024,20,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,现金流量趋势,: G (12 v.s 73),8/26/2024,21,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,CFFOA v.s Free Cash Flow,EBITDA （扣除利息、税收、折旧和摊销前的利润）,- Depreciation and amortization (折旧和摊销）,- Taxes（税收）,= Net operating profit after tax (NOPAT) (税后经营利润）,- Capital expenditures (资本性支出）,- Changes in the WCR (营运资本变动需要）,= Free cash Flow (自由现金流量）,8/26/2024,22,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,现金流量趋势,: F( 69 v.s 63),8/26/2024,23,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,现金流量趋势,: C (12 v.s 73),8/26/2024,24,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,现金流量趋势,: M,8/26/2024,25,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,财务报表分析的逻辑切入点,权责发生,制会计,管理当局,动机,盈利质量,现金流量,分析,资产负债,质量,核心盈利,可持续性、成长,性、现金流量,调整与调节,应计制向现金,流动制的转换,确认和计量,资产、负债、,股东权益,决 策,财务契约设计,估值与投资,信贷分析,财务风险评估,审计风险评估,差错,歪曲,报表失真问题,报表分析纬度,报表分析用途,8/26/2024,26,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,德隆是被郎咸平搞跨的吗？,三大报表的功能区分,资产负债表,利润表,现金流量表,从“德隆系”的垮台看证券监管的误区,基于新疆屯河的案例分析,8/26/2024,27,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,中石油,（0857.HK）,股价,周线图,巴菲特撤退,8/26/2024,28,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,中石油,（0857.HK）,股价月线图,EPS: 0.59; PE: 8.47,8/26/2024,29,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,中石油业绩因何突出？,Operating Performance Perspective,雇员人数: 24.73万人，雇员薪金成本223.1，其中养老金24.7,8/26/2024,30,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,中石油业绩因何突出？,Operating Performance Perspective,8/26/2024,31,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,中石油业绩因何突出？,-Financial Position Perspective,2004年末, 油气资产2358, 占FA50.3%, 机器设备1373, 占FA29.3%,8/26/2024,32,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,中石油业绩因何突出？,-Financial Position Perspective,8/26/2024,33,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,中石油业绩因何突出？,-Cash Flow Perspective,8/26/2024,34,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,中石油业绩因何突出？,-Cash Flow Perspective,8/26/2024,35,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,中石油业绩因何突出？,-管理层自白,中国石油,2004年度业绩报告,8/26/2024,36,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,PetroChina v.s ExxonMobil,项 目 名 称,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,营业收入,PC（亿元）,EM（亿美元）,2,453,2,276,2,413,2,087,2,444,2,009,3,038,2,371,3,886,2,913,净利润,PC（亿元）,EM（亿美元）,546,177,455,153,469,115,696,215,1,029,253,销售利润率,PC,EM,22.3,7.8,15.7,7.3,14.8,5.7,19.5,9.1,24.2,8.7,资产周转率,PC,EM,0.57,1.53,0.52,1.46,0.51,1.32,0.57,1.36,0.64,1.49,净资产收益率,PC,EM,20.1,20.6,15.7,17.8,14.8,13.5,19.5,20.9,24.2,23.8,8/26/2024,37,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,PetroChina v.s ExxonMobil,PC: 总股本1758亿股, 国有股90%, 外资股10%, 4月8日收盘价约HK$5.00, 总市值约HK$8790亿,项 目 名 称,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,股东权益,PC（亿元）,EM（亿美元）,2,716,708,2,906,732,3,166,746,3,566,899,4,252,1,018,股票市值,PC（亿元）,EM（亿美元）,3,012,2,676,2,341,2,693,*,3,281,资产总额,PC (亿元),EM (亿美元),4,320,1,490,4,626,1,432,4,831,1,526,5,317,1,742,6,099,1,953,负债率,PC,EM,37.1,52.5,37.2,48.9,34.5%,51.1%,32.9,48.4,30.3,47.9,8/26/2024,38,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,PetroChina v.s ExxonMobil,项 目 名 称,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,经营活动现金流量,PC（亿元）,EM（亿美元）,1,025,287,829,240,973,241,1,372,308,1,373,433,资本支出,PC（亿元）,EM（亿美元）,593,112,600,123,728,140,829,155,953,149,自由现金流量,PC (亿元),EM (亿美元),432,175,229,117,245,101,543,153,420,284,雇员人数,PC,EM (万),n.a,99.6,n.a,97.9,n.a,92.5,41.7,88.3,42.4,85.9,8/26/2024,39,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,移动通讯案例分析,市场占有率,8/26/2024,40,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,中移动,（0941.HK),股价周线图,PE: 12.84,8/26/2024,41,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,中国联通,（0761.HK),股价周线图,PE: 19.14,8/26/2024,42,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,移动通讯案例分析,营业收入趋势图,(watch for comparability),8/26/2024,43,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,移动通讯案例分析,EBIDTA,8/26/2024,44,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,移动通讯案例分析,Net Income,8/26/2024,45,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,移动通讯案例分析,ROE,8/26/2024,46,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,移动通讯案例分析,财务状况,8/26/2024,47,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,资产结构 (,Impact of 3G?）,项 目,名 称,中国移动,中国联通,金 额,占比,金 额,占比,流动资产,799.09,21.67%,178.52,12.26%,其中：银行存款,现金及现金等价物,应收账款,存货,202.64,451.49,65.53,24.99,5.49%,12.24%,1.78%,0.68%,53.17,-,52.30,31.15,3.65%,-,3.59%,2.14%,非流动资产,2,888.43,78.33%,1,277.77,87.74%,其中：固定资产&在建工程,商誉,2,493.02,353.00,67.61%,9.57%,1,189.04,31.37,81.65%,2.15%,资产总计,3,687.52,100%,1,456.29,100%,移动：电信设施2180.63，占FA的87；联通：电信设施933.08，占FA的78,8/26/2024,48,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,现金流量结构,项目名称,中国移动,2004,中国移动,2003,中国联通,2004,中国联通,2003,经营活动净流量,1037.79,855.34,238.2,225.7,投资活动净流量,- 733.02,-542.92,-189.6,-190.5,-资本开支,- 591.43,-438.71,-183.9,-196.7,-收购附属公司等,- 122.38,- 52.00,0.2,-23.9,Quasi FCF,466.66,416.63,54.3,29.0,融资活动净流量,- 244.57,-246.88,-94.0,- 87.8,现金净流量,60.20,65.54,- 45.4,- 52.6,8/26/2024,49,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,美国电信公司概览,-AT&T,2003,2002,2001,营业收入,345.29,378.27,421.97,净利润,18.65,-122.26,68.11,自由现金流量,53.73,66.05,42.38,资产总额,其中:FA & IA占比,479.88,60.8%,554.37,54.5%,股东权益,139.56,123.12,负债率,71.8%,77.8%,收入利润率,5.4%,-32.3%,16.1%,净资产收益率,13.4%,-99.3%,8/26/2024,50,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,美国电信公司概览,-MCI (Former WorldCom),2003,2002,2001,营业收入,273.15,321.89,376.08,净利润,222.11,-91.92,-155.98,自由现金流量,30.08,-11.95,-36.20,资产总额,其中:FA & IA占比,273.67,45.2%,267.62,54.9%,股东权益,84.72,-222.95,负债率,69.0%,-,收入利润率,-,-,-,净资产收益率,-,-,8/26/2024,51,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,美国电信公司概览,-Sprint,2003,2002,2001,营业收入,261.97,266.79,255.62,净利润,12.15,6.3,-14.01,自由现金流量,27.18,13.57,-44.83,资产总额,其中:FA & IA占比,428.50,81.9%,452.93,83.4%,股东权益,132.24,122.94,负债率,69.1%,53.9%,收入利润率,4.6%,2.4%,-5.5%,净资产收益率,9.2%,5.1%,8/26/2024,52,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,美国电信公司概览,-SBC,2004,2003,2002,营业收入,407.87,404.98,428.21,净利润,58.87,85.05,56.53,自由现金流量,58.56,81.38,83.28,资产总额,其中:FA & IA占比,1,088.44,47.5%,1,002.33,53.6%,股东权益,405.04,382.48,负债率,62.8%,61.8%,收入利润率,14.4%,21.0%,13.2%,净资产收益率,14.5%,22.2%,8/26/2024,53,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,美国电信公司概览,-Verizon,2004,2003,2002,营业收入,712.83,674.68,670.56,净利润,78.31,30.77,40.79,自由现金流量,85.61,105.93,90.3,资产总额,其中:FA & IA占比,1,659.58,47.9%,1,659.68,48.1%,股东权益,375.60,334.66,负债率,77.4%,73.3%,收入利润率,10.9%,4.6%,6.1%,净资产收益率,20.8%,9.2%,8/26/2024,54,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,