资源描述
第八章第八章人力资源规划人力资源规划CHP8 Human Resource Planningn案例 北京桑科制造公司的营销经理赵旺在每周经理例会上说：“我有个好消息，我们可以与麦多德公司签订一大笔合同。我们所要做的就是在一年而不是两年内完成该方案。我告诉过他们我们能够做到。然而人力资源副经理王林的话却让每个人都必须面对现实，她说：在我看来，我们现有的工人并不具备按麦多德公司的标准生产出优质产品所需要的专业知识。在原来两年的方案进度表中，我们曾方案对现有工人逐步进行培训，但是按现在这个新的时间表我们将不得不到劳动力市场上招募那些具有该方面工作经验的工人。或许我们有必要进一步分析一下这个方案，看看是否确实需要这么做。如果我们要在一年内而不是两年中完成这一方案，人力资源本钱将大幅度上升。不错，赵经理，我们能够做到这一点，但是由于有些约束条件，这个方案的效益会好吗？w假设：假设：你分别是营销经理、人力资源经理、公你分别是营销经理、人力资源经理、公司总经理，面对这种情况，你的态度是司总经理，面对这种情况，你的态度是什么？什么？策之而知得失之计，作之而知动静之理，形之而知生死之地，角之而知有余缺乏之处。?孙子兵法虚实?人力资源规划Human Resource Planning的含义w在企业开展和经营规划的指导下进行人员的供需平衡，以满足企业在不同开展时期对人员的需求，为企业的开展提供符合质量和数量要求的人力资源保证。wEmployment or personnel planning is the process of deciding what positions the firm will have to fill,and how to fill them.概念理解(1)wHRP要在企业开展战略和经营规划的根底上来进行。wStrategic Analysis wWhat human resources are needed and what are available?wStrategic FormulationwWhat is required and necessary in support of human resources?wStrategic ImplementationwHow will the human resources be allocated?Clarify performance expectations and future management methods:values,guiding principles business mission objectives and priorities resource allocationsIdentify people-relatedbusiness issuesDefine HR strategies,objectives,and action plansImplement HRprocesses,policies and practicesImplement processes toachieve desired results:business goals company strengths/weaknesses external opportunities/threats source of competitive advantageEstablish the context:business goals company strengths/weaknesses external opportunities/threats source of competitive advantageStrategic AnalysisStrategyFormulationStrategy ImplementationLinking the Processes of HRP and Strategic PlanningEnsuring the Fit between HR and StrategywExternal Fit(or External Alignment)Focuses on the connection between the business objectives and the major initiatives in HR.wInternal Fit(or Internal Alignment)Aligning HR practices with one another to establish a configuration that is mutually reinforcing.Step1:PlanningAwarenessStep4:OrganizationalResourceAnalysisStep5:Opportunity&ThreatIdentificationStep7:StrategyDesignStep6:GapAnalysisStep9:ProgressMeasurement&ControlStep8:StrategyImplementationStep2:GoalFormulationStep3:EnvironmentalAnalysisReminder:Organization Strategy Model概念理解(2)wHRP包括对企业特定时期内的人员供给和需求进行预测、根据预测的结果采取相应的措施进行供需平衡。wHRP对企业人力资源供给和需求的预测要从数量和质量这两个方面来进行。ResultsofInadequateHRPlanningwVacant positions create costly inefficiencieswOvertime hours at premium costwSimultaneous layoffs and hiringwMass layoffs requiring:wSeverance paywExtended notice periodswineffective training,development,career planningwTurnover of high performerswProblems with employment equity goalswInability to meet operational and strategic plansPurpose of HRPHRPs purpose is the effective deployment of human resources through:Anticipating organizational labor supply and demand.Providing expanded employment opportunities Guiding the development and training the workforce.人力资源规划的内容wComprehensiveness of planningw“Plan-based HRP is part of organizations business planningwHRP for special projects-planned or unplanned needsAssignment planSupplement planRetirement or Termination planWages&Motivation planTraining&Development planPromotion planHRPHRP的意义和作用w有助于企业开展战略的制定w有助于企业保持人员状况的稳定w有助于企业降低人工本钱的开支w对HRM的其他职能具有指导意义Relationships Compensation ManagementAssessing PerformanceForecast the demand of hrForecast the supply of hrDSrecruitmentdeploymentTraining&developmentD=SD SDismiss&layoffdeployment人力资源规划的程序企业内部环境：经营战略、发展战略、管理风格、管理体系企业的外部环境：政治、经济、文化、法律、相关政策企业的现有人力资源“人力资源的数量、质量、结构、潜力需求分析供给分析内部供给外部供给人员分析劳动力市场状况,择业偏好,企业吸引力,外部竞争内部供给预测外部供给预测职位分析需求预测需求的数量、质量比较供给的数量、质量制定并实施供需平衡的计划评估人力资源规划人力资源规划的程序 implement the balanceable planAssess HRPdemand analysissupply analysisInternal supplyExternal supplyEmployee analysislabour market status,attraction,externalcompetitionForecasting internal supplyForecasting external supplyPosition analysisForecasting demandQuantity and quality of demandcompareQuantity and quality of supplyInternal environment：management stratagem、development stratagem management style,management systemExternal environment：politics,economic culture,law,relevant policyExisting HR:quantity、quality,structure potentialHRP and Environmental ScanningwEnvironmental ScanningThe systematic monitoring of the major external forces influencing the organization.JEconomic factors:general and regional conditionsJCompetitive trends:new processes,services,and innovationsJTechnological changes:robotics and office automation JPolitical and legislative issues:laws and administrative rulings JSocial concerns:child care and educational priorities JDemographic trends:age,composition,and literacyScanning the Internal EnvironmentwCultural AuditsAudits of the culture and quality of work life in an organization.JHow do employees spend their time?JHow do they interact with each other?JAre employees empowered?JWhat is the predominant leadership style of managers?JHow do employees advance within the organization?wBenchmarkingThe process of comparing the organizations processes and practices with those of other companies.FORECASTINGDEMANDFORECASTINGDEMANDConsiderationsConsiderations Product/servicedemandProduct/servicedemand TechnologyTechnology FinancialresourcesFinancialresources Absenteeism/turnoverAbsenteeism/turnover OrganizationalgrowthOrganizationalgrowth ManagementphilosophyManagementphilosophyTechniquesTechniques TrendanalysisTrendanalysis ManagerialestimatesManagerialestimates DelphitechniqueDelphitechniqueTechniquesTechniques StaffingtablesStaffingtables MarkovanalysisMarkovanalysis SkillsinventoriesSkillsinventories ManagementinventoriesManagementinventories ReplacementchartsReplacementcharts SuccessionPlanningSuccessionPlanningExternalConsiderationsExternalConsiderations DemographicchangesDemographicchanges EducationoftheworkforceEducationoftheworkforce LaborMobilityLaborMobility GovernmentpoliciesGovernmentpolicies UnemploymentrateUnemploymentrateFORECASTINGSUPPLYFORECASTINGSUPPLYBALANCINGBALANCINGSUPPLYANDSUPPLYANDDEMANDDEMAND(Shortage)(Shortage)RecruitmentRecruitment Full-timeFull-time Part-timePart-time RecallsRecalls(Surplus)(Surplus)ReductionsReductions LayoffsLayoffs TerminationsTerminations DemotionsDemotions RetirementsRetirements人力资源需求的预测人力资源需求的预测Forecasting Personnel Needsw人力资源需求的分析Strategy and plansProduct and service demandProjected turnoverQuality and skills of your employeesStrategic decisions to upgrade the quality of products or services or enter into new marketsTechnological and other changes resulting in increased productivity.The financial resource available to your departmentWorkload of a positionEfficiency changingw人力资源需求预测的方法人力资源需求预测的方法主观判断法主观判断法ManagerialEstimate Management forecasts are the opinions(judgments)of supervisors,department managers,experts,or others knowledgeable about the organizations future employment needs.德尔菲法德尔菲法Delphitechnique The Delphi technique is a method for obtaining forecasts from a panel of independent experts over two or more rounds.差差差差距距距距提交提交提交提交反馈反馈反馈反馈修改修改修改修改提交提交提交提交反馈反馈反馈反馈修改修改修改修改 提交提交提交提交反馈反馈反馈反馈批准批准批准批准第一轮第一轮第一轮第一轮第二轮第二轮第二轮第二轮第三轮第三轮第三轮第三轮提交：经营计划、编制、人力成本提交：经营计划、编制、人力成本提交：经营计划、编制、人力成本提交：经营计划、编制、人力成本反馈：优缺点、建议、意见反馈：优缺点、建议、意见反馈：优缺点、建议、意见反馈：优缺点、建议、意见修改：经营计划、财务预算修改：经营计划、财务预算修改：经营计划、财务预算修改：经营计划、财务预算通过反复的反馈与修改通过反复的反馈与修改缩短经营计划与公司总缩短经营计划与公司总体财务预算的差距。体财务预算的差距。w德尔菲法的特征德尔菲法的特征w匿名性匿名性w屡次有控制的反响屡次有控制的反响w综合性综合性w德尔菲法的步骤德尔菲法的步骤w确定预测题目，选定专家小组；确定预测题目，选定专家小组；w设计调查表，准备有关材料；设计调查表，准备有关材料；w征询专家初次判断意见；征询专家初次判断意见；w综合整理收回的各位专家初次判断意见，作出定量综合整理收回的各位专家初次判断意见，作出定量化的归纳，加以必要说明。并反响给各位专家，请化的归纳，加以必要说明。并反响给各位专家，请他们再次思考，提出判断意见；他们再次思考，提出判断意见；w经过反复征询意见后，做出预测值。经过反复征询意见后，做出预测值。w德尔菲法的优点：德尔菲法的优点：1各专家能够在不受干扰的情况下，独立、充各专家能够在不受干扰的情况下，独立、充分地说明自己的意见；分地说明自己的意见；2预测值是根据各位专家的意见综合而成的，预测值是根据各位专家的意见综合而成的，能够发挥集体的智慧；能够发挥集体的智慧；3应用面比较广，费用比较节省。应用面比较广，费用比较节省。w德尔菲法的缺点：德尔菲法的缺点：在综合预测值时，仅仅是根据各专家的主观判断，在综合预测值时，仅仅是根据各专家的主观判断，缺乏客观标准，而且显得强求一致。缺乏客观标准，而且显得强求一致。w趋势预测法Trend analysis The study of a firms past employment needs over a period of years to predict future needs.w回归分析Regression analysisw比率预测法Ratio analysisA forecasting technique for determining future staff needs by using ratios between a causal factor and the number of employees needed.Assumes that the relationship between the causal factor and staffing needs is constantw趋势预测法例题趋势预测法例题 某公司过去8年人员的数据如下，请预测今后第二年和第四年人力资源的需求是多少年度12345678人数450455 465480485490510525趋势线可以表示为趋势线可以表示为ab确实定根据最小平方法确实定根据最小平方法这样就可以预测出今后第二年和第四年的人这样就可以预测出今后第二年和第四年的人力资源需求为力资源需求为Ratio AnalysisRatio Analysis比率分析比率分析#patients 病人=100#nurses 护士 =25patient 病人/nurse 护士 ratio比率=4/1If there are 315 patients,how many nurses are needed?如果有315个病人，需要多少护士？人力资源供给的预测Forecasting Personnel supplywForecasting the Supply of Outside CandidatesFactors impacting the supply of outside candidatesGeneral economic conditionsLabor MarketsExpected unemployment rateattraction of enterpriseAttitude toward jobwForecasting the Supply of inside Candidatesw现有人力资源的分析w 人力资源自身的自然变化退休、生育，主要是对年龄、性别、身体状况等等进行分析。w人员流动的分析重要前提假定：人员的质量不发生变化 w人员由企业流出w人员在企业内部流动人员的质量分析假定：人员没有发生流动 显性原因：如工资的增加技能的培训隐形原因加班加点工作分享、缩短工作时间人力资源供给预测的方法wSkill InventorieswReplacement ChartswMarkov AnalysisInternal supply Forecasting ToolswSkill InventoriesFiles of personnel education,experience,interests,skills,etc.,that allow managers to quickly match job openings with employee backgrounds.wPersonnel replacement chartsCompany records showing present performance and promotability of inside candidates for the most important positions.Figure4.6w人力资源水池模型现有 员工30人流出15人流入9人 未来的内部供给24人12342+31(23)36960279036职位层次AB将提升到上一层次外部招聘将提升到本层次退休辞职提升受阻A现有人员B可提升人员调入6人现有30人调出和离职10人未来供给28人调入10人现有40人调出和离职5人未来供给47人调入6人现有50人调出和离职12人未来供给40人晋升5人降职3人晋升8人降职3人降职4人内部供给总量115人w马尔科夫模型是用来预测等时间间隔点上一般为1年各类人员分布状况的一种动态预测技术。wMarkov analysis shows the percentage(and actual number)of employees who remain in each job from one year to the next,as well as the proportions of those who are promoted,transferred,or exit the organization.某类人员的转移率p=本类人员原有数量转移出本类人员数量w例题例题1：三类人员的转移矩阵和现在三类人员：三类人员的转移矩阵和现在三类人员分布状况，如果每年向第一类补充分布状况，如果每年向第一类补充80人，求人，求未来人力资源供给分布状况。未来人力资源供给分布状况。类别总数ABCt=0,2006年14010060300u人员转移率p，t0时人员分布情况，每年向A类补充人数80人u 根据马尔可夫计算公式 可知，某类人员在t时刻的供给量uN该类人员总数留存率补充人数.u 其中，u补充人数=下类人员总数晋升率该类招聘人数上类人员总数降职率u列表预测20072021年三类人员供给情况 时间类别总数数ABC补充存留充存留晋升存留晋升存留晋升存留晋升存留t=0,14010060300t=1,80+1400.6=1641400.3+1000.4=821000.3+600.6=66312t=2,80+1640.6=1781640.3+820.4=82820.3+660.6=64324t=3,80+1780.6=1871780.3+820.4=86820.3+640.6=63336t=4,80+1870.6=1921870.3+860.4=91860.3+630.6=64347例题例题2：假设某企业有四类职位，从高到低依次是A,B,C,D,各类人员的分布情况如下表，请预测一下未来人员的分布。职位ABCD人数4080100150T年ABCD离职率合计A0901B010702C0107500501D020602解：T1年期初人数ABCD离职率合计A40364B8085616C1001075510D150309030预测的供给44661059560Balancing demand and supply of HR人力资源供需的平衡Dealing with an oversupply of personnel人员供给过剩处理wFreeze hiring 冻结雇佣wRestrict overtime 限制超时wRetrain/redeploy 重新培训/调动wSwitch to part-time employees 转成兼职员工wUse unpaid vacations 采用无薪休假wUse a shorter workweek 采用缩短的工作周wUse pay reductions 采用减少工资wUse sabbaticals 采用周期性休息wEncourage early retirements 鼓励提前退休wHire additional workers 雇佣另外的工人wImprove productivity through training 通过培训提高生产力wUse overtime 采用超时wAdd additional shifts 增加另外的班次wReassign jobs 重新分配工作wUse temporary workers 使用短期工人wImprove retention 改善留置率Dealing with an Undersupply of Personnel人员供给缺乏处理HumanResourcePlanningProcessExternalEnvironmentInternalEnvironmentStrategic PlanningHuman Resource PlanningForecasting Human Resource RequirementsComparing Requirements and AvailabilityForecasting Human Resource AvailabilitySurplus of WorkersDemand=SupplyNo ActionRestricted Hiring,Reduced Hours,Early Retirement,Layoff,DownsizingShortage of WorkersRecruitmentSelectionHumanResourcesPlanningModelEmploymentForecastingSupplyAnalysisBalanceSupplyandDemandLeadstoResultinginCONSIDERATIONSINTERNALRECRUITMENTFull-TimePart-TimeRecallsREDUCTIONSTerminationsLayoffsDemotionsRetirementStaffingTablesMarkovAnalysisSkillsInventoriesManagementInventoriesReplacementChartsSuccessionPlanningProduct/ServiceEconomicsTechnologyFinancialResourcesAbsenteeism/TurnoverGrowthManagementPhilosophyTECHNIQUESTrendAnalysisManagerialEstimateDelphiTechniqueEXTERNALDemographicChangesEducationofWorkforceLaborMobilityGovernmentalPoliciesUnemploymentRate
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