区域经济增长的影响因素课件

6RegionalEconomicGrowthanddevelopmenttheory6.1区域经济增长的影响因素6.2Demandbasedtheory6RegionalEconomicGrowthan1ThefactorofRegionalEconomicGrowth区域经济增长的主要影响因素分解内因外因需求供给区内需求区外需求区内供给区外供给区域产业结构、区域布局结构、区域生产要素流动（资本、技术、人力资本等）消费、储蓄与投资生产要素投入、相关生产技术、生产组织管理、经济规模性等ThefactorofRegionalEconomi2因素分析：供给拉动机制需求拉动机制因素分析：供给拉动机制36.2Demandbasedthrory(需求拉动的区域经济增长理论）Export-basetheory(North）进口替代理论投入产出理论自产自销理论等6.2Demandbasedthrory(需求拉动4Export-basetheory(需求拉动的区域经济增长理论）1.Export-basetheory(North)2.Tieboutsresponse3.economicbasetheory：乘数理论4.ComparedtoJaneJacobs“supplyregion”Export-basetheory(需求拉动的区域51.Context:战后关心工业化和增长战后关心工业化和增长经济增长经济增长阶段论阶段论1.1HooverandFisher,1949,“ResearchinRegionalEconomicGrowth,”lTheselfsufficientsubsistenceeconomyWithimprovementintransport:tradeandlocalspecializationAgriculturalcropsfromextensivegrazingtointensivecultivationIndustrialitionSpecializationintertiaryindustriesproducingforexport1.Context:战后关心工业化和增长经济增长阶段论6运输成本的作用（WalterIsard,1951)Historicallywefindthatreducedtransportrateshavetended:(1)totransformascattered,ubiquitouspatternofproductionintoanincreasinglyconcentratedone.(2)toeffectprogressivedifferentiationandselectionbetweensiteswithsuperiorandinferiorresourcesandtraderoutes.运输成本的作用（WalterIsard,1951)His71.2Rostow,WW.TheStagesofEconomicGrowth:ANon-communistManifesto,1960.Traditionalsocietystage为起飞创造前提条件阶段:家庭手工业/商业，savings/capital,entrepreneurs/investment3.起飞阶段(takeoff)conditions:1)生产性投资提高生产性投资提高 2）有工业部门担）有工业部门担任的主导产业高速发展任的主导产业高速发展3）有利于现代产业扩张的政治，社会）有利于现代产业扩张的政治，社会和制度结构和制度结构4.成熟阶段5.高额消费阶段6.追求生活质量阶段1.2Rostow,WW.TheStagesof8Douglas North(1955):“Locationtheoryandregionaleconomicgrowth”1)批判区位理论和区域增长理论:关于区位的模型和关于增长的描述都有问题a.建立区域发展的阶段论(stagetheory)，但他们的阶段序列和经济史却是断裂的-建立在欧洲封建/自给自足型经济的假设，但是，在美国从未如此：从一开始，区域的从一开始，区域的经济活动（采集资源，生产，贸易）就是直经济活动（采集资源，生产，贸易）就是直接联系世界市场的。接联系世界市场的。b.并没有解释区域增长的动力。-工业化的假设误导了对区域发展的分析 DouglasNorth(1955):“Locat9102)区域发展必须放在资本主义制度框架（假定条件：profit maximizing opportunities，mobile production factor ）以美国大西北出口历史为例:-麦/面粉加州的goldrush(1840)（thefirstfoundmarket)1868开始到英国/1857到日本/亚洲/澳洲19世纪：一半以上出口-伐木业（Douglasfir）联系加州的goldrush1860-1920,flour and lumber accounted for 40-60%of the value of the regions manufacturing不是线性地从不是线性地从subsistence-集中集中2)区域发展必须放在资本主义制度框架113)定义exportbase:collectivelyexportablecommoditiesofaregion.Regionaldevelopmentwasdependentonitssuccessinproducingexportablecommodities.IntheUS,manyregionsstartedfrom1or2exportablecommodities-NoevolutionfromsubsistenceeconomyExport-baseoftenwidenedaftertransportcostshadbeenreduced3)定义exportbase:co12DevelopmentofanexportablecommodityComparativeadvantage-reducingtransfercost(infrastructuredevelopment)-externaleconomies(specialiedmarketing.improvedcredit.atrainedlaboeforce)-technologicaldevelopment-capitalreinforceexistingexportbaseDevelopmentofanexportablec13TheroleofexportbaseinshapingtheregionaleconomyDeterminingthelevelofpercapitaincomeofaregion-direct-indirect(inrelationtoresidentiaryindustrydiversityandincomefluctuationTheroleofexportbaseinsha144)增长的机制增长一定要工业化？ThecaseofOregon：农业带动的出口也能带动增长1950,24%laborforceinmanufacturingcomparedtothenationalfigureof25.9%)农业带动的出口也能带动增长4)增长的机制155)So,a region is defined by its development around a common export base.This makes it economically unified and ties the regions fortunes together.5)So,aregionisdefinedby166)Whatwillinfluencethedeclineofaregion?-changingdemandsoftheoutsideworld-exhaustionofnaturalresource-increasingcostsoflandandlabor-Transportation(interregionalcompetition)-Technology-Government6)Whatwillinfluencethede17出路：Tobroadenexportbase,todiversifyeconomicbase.出路：Tobroadenexportbase,to182.Tiebouts response:19561)exportbase对小区域比对大区域有用2)Northsanalysisisanoversimplificationforalargeregion-Howtodefinearegion?Notbyexportbase.-Sizematters.Thelargeraregionis,themoretheinternaldynamicforcescausingincomechanges.E.g.exportonlyaccountsforaverysmallportionofUSeconomy2.Tieboutsresponse:1956ex192)short-termv.s.long-runothersourcesofregionalgrowth:(ofincomeandemployment)-businessinvestment-governmentspending-residentialconstruction-non-economicmigration2)short-termv.s.long-r203)factorendowment:E.g.NewJerseyscoal有煤不见得就有出口，还要看成本4)stagetheorycounts E.g.Americaasacolony5)exportbaseisbettertobeappliedtosatellitecitiesinthesuburbanfringe6)aregionmustdivideitsenergiesbetweenresidentiaryandexportactivities3)factorendowment:21lNorth:Reply 1)longrun 2)aregionssignificanceliesinitsbeingaspecializedpartofthewholeso,exportbaseisusefultodefinearegion*长江三角洲，珠江三角洲是区域吗？有exportbase可用来定义吗？3)residentiary的发展仍需外力，即出口。（是吗？）lNorth:Reply22 lTiebout:再回应再回应1)强调otherendogenousvariables2)强调某种程度的closedeconomynocausalmechanismbetweenregionaldevelopmentandexportingcapacity.NotallexporteconomyproducesdiversityNorthismisleadinglTiebout:再回应233.economic base theory 经济基础理论经济基础理论-basicsector:export;engineofthelocaleconomy.E.g.Boeing-non-basic(local)sector:e.g.grocery,dry-cleaning,localgovernmentetc.-basemultiplier基础乘数:Total/Basic(employment)e.g.B20,000NB40,000T60,000Baseratio(B/NB)=1:2Basemultiplier(T/B)=33.economicbasetheory经济基础理论24参考http:/garnet.acns.fsu.edu/tchapin/urp5261/topics/econbase.htm参考http:/garnet.acns.fsu.edu/25-policyimplication改良出口所需的条件，包括运输，生产技术并降低劳动成本（压低工资）这个快乐的故事是这样的：政府投资增长过程产业多元化收入增加地方储蓄增加投资增加劳力移入形成新的出口产业-policyimplication改良出口所需的条26-critique1)理论上不完整;任何外来投资，即使是指向内需市场，仍可以带动区域的乘数效果。2)到底如何区分基础产业和非基础产业？服务业就是非基础产业吗？3)对增加的就业只看就业量，但每一种就业的质不一样，有些工作附加价值高，有些低。4)区域外的需求如何形成？（动力？）5)对供给持无限弹性的看法，可以完全对需求做出反应。-是这样吗？实际上故事不一定如此美好，增加的收入不一定在本地消费，有时会漏到外地去。（新竹科学园区的到台北消费）而关联性也不保证在本地发生，要视新投资的特性而定（台塑六轻，雇用外地工人）。-critique1)理论上不完整;任何外274.Compared to Jane Jacobs“Supply Region”Aregionsfateisdecidedbyadistantcitymarket乌拉圭(Uruguay)的例子1911-1950meat,wool,leatherforEuropeanmarketwelfarestate:SwitzerlandofSouthAmerica1953thingsbegantogowrongFrance:protectionismCompetitionfromAustraliaandNewZealandImportsubstitution:costtoomuch,importpartsandmaterialsexhaustedforeignreservesbuythingsoncreditsunabletopayloaninterestsbankrupt4.ComparedtoJaneJacobs“28why:thecapitalcity,Montevideolackedtherangesofskills,thenetworksofproducersgoodsandservices,thepracticeatimprovisingandadaptingnecessarytomakeimport-replacingapracticaleconomicendeavorinflationunemployment,poverty,socialpoliticalchaosmilitarydictatorship-peaceandorderofaneconomicgraveyard1980,theaveragepurchasingpowerofconsumersonlyhalfofithadbeenin1968,whichwashalfofthatin1950.why:thecapitalcity,Montev29lSo,aregioncouldberichbutstilllackdevelopment-Fragile,helplesslNeedtocreateaproductivecityforthemselves,generateacomplexandmany-sidedcityregionlNogoodtobetoospecialized:controlledbydistantmarketlDeclineofasupplyregion:-depletion-newsubstitutesforoldproducts-politicalarrangement(EU)lcomparedtocolonialeconomiesCuba?llSo,aregioncouldbe30最重要的观点：要发展city region(似乎更适合描述长江三角洲，珠江三角洲？而北京又是什么样的区域？)最重要的观点：要发展cityregion(似乎更适合31