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外文参考资料原文：Regression Analysis on Invisible Demand of Insurance ProductsZhou Yunfeng 1, 2Abstract: In the context of in-depth study on invisible demand, this paper describes different results of domestic and foreign scholars in invisible demand in views of the relevant researches. From three perspectives this paper qualitatively analyzes the difference between insurance products and tangible products, highlighting the intangible nature of insurance products. Through the correlation analysis and regression analysis on insurance products and income, consumption, we found that rising income leads to the constant consumption of insurance products, namely a certain income reaches to avoid risks stronger. So it is an important task to develop new insurance products to meet the continuous needs of the people based on invisible demand.Keywords: insurance products; invisible demand; regression analysis; correlation analysis1 IntroductionMany insurance companies realize that customer often fail to express their demands clearly. The invisible demand research of Chinese scholars were scattered in different areas of research and documentation, and the paper gradually has formed a relatively area of study and research context in current. Wang Baoxin (2003) believed that there is a large number of the invisible demand for the customer except the profiling demand. Especially the invisible demand of the custom is more potential, so it has ability to pay and impulsivity shopping belongs to invisible demand or semi-invisible demand. Luo Yongtai (2006) put forward the product based on the depth of the development, which will help enterprises take full advantage of consumer invisible resources demand. The variation and evolution of the invisible demand research of foreign scholars is understanding earlier, Keith Goffin Fred Lemke (2005) believed that sometimes customers do not comprehend what their demands, that is, consumers or users only have not directly cognizant for their demands. Because these requirements are the awareness level, users can not clearly express these demands. Adrian Slywotzky, Richard Wise, Karl Weber (2005) proposed the origin of innovation was grasping the invisible demand of customer. Enterprises must understand the existing product and service related field which customers spend more time and money, and “demand innovation” creates new profits. From the above Literatures, we can see that there are many scholars to research on the invisible demand based on not quantitative analysis of combined data but the theoretical analysis mostly. Therefore, this article aims to use combination methods of qualitative and quantitative to of study invisible demand for insurance products.2 The Difference Comparison on Insurance Products and Tangible Products2.1 Greater flexibility in product qualityTangible products can be mass-produced by the labor. The different production materials, different production process, different production technologies level can lead to differences in product quality. After all, there is a measure standard for tangible products. The same kinds of product can also be used to compared and identified. Whether the insurance product is a good or not can be difficult to measure by its service quality.2.2 The ambiguity of former products consumptionPeople buy products before we can do a certain understanding such as debugging, touch, some manufacturers also sell a number of days to make the promise of a trial, so that the consumer product has a clearer understanding in order to help to make the final purchase decision, so that consumers have a clearer understanding for products which help people to make purchase decisions. Although people have an understanding for the insurance products before buying, the consumer can not touch it but see its appearance. Therefore, there may be lots of ambiguity before making decisions.2.3 The synchronization process of production and consumptionTangible products have the production, storage, transportation, sales and so on. This process has the production behavior for manufacturers, transport, storage behavior and the sale behavior for businesses, thus expanding the product contact surface and the sphere of influence. Insurance products a service process which are offered by the seller to the buyer, the production process is the consumption process. The synchronization of the two limits the sphere insurance products. The scale and geographical scope of the insurance products have limitations in the competition.In the purchase of tangible products, the ownership has transferred. After the purchase, consumers can transfer the product to others and if consumers are not satisfied with the event and can also be changed back. The transfer of ownership rights does not occur in the purchase of insurance products in and the transfer rights will no longer go out. It will be difficult to change if the consumer is not satisfied with the products.3 The Quantitative Analysis of Invisible Demand of Insurance Products With the level of personal incomes rising, peoples consumption is also rising. In the past, people only focused on the food issue and clothing well-being, and now constant pursuit the spiritual demand, then which led the development of related services. The insurance industry is a kind of essential demand and the demand is also constant to increase. It is different from ordinary products, after the payment you buy a stable psychological and a kind of risk.3.1 Data selectionWe mainly research the invisible demand of insurance products in this paper. Because the invisible demand is difficult to measure in practice and profiling demand is shift from invisible demand, we selected profiling demand to replace invisible demand. In this paper, we select the retail price index (RETAIL), per capita disposable income (INCOME) as the consumption and income level of people and select premium income (BAOFEI) as the insurance consumption for consumers. These three indicators are based 1978 = 100 as the base period index. According to the National Bureau of Statistics website, we get the data interval time which is 1985, 1990, from 1993 to 2007. The data are as follows:Table1. Data indicators from 1985 to 200YearBAOFEIINCOMERETAIL1985192.3160.4128.119901200.0198.1207.719933507.7255.1254.919942892.3276.8310.219953484.6290.3356.119964138.5301.6377.819975938.5311.9380.819989661.5329.9370.9199910815.4360.6359.8200012292.3383.7354.4200116223.1416.3351.6200223492.3472.1347200329846.2514.6346.7200433215.4554.2356.4200537938.5607.4359.3200643384.6670.7362.9200754123.1752.3376.73.2 Correlation analysisUsing EViews3.1 software according to the data in Table 1, we process the correlation analysis for the level of premiums respectively, consumption and income (INCOME). The results are as follows: Table2. The related degree among indicators CORRBAOFEIINCOMERETAILBAOFEI1.00000.98640.4566INCOME0.98641.00000.5858RETAIL0.45660.58581.0000From Table 2 we find that the relevant degree of the premium income and per capita disposable income is 0.9864, while the related level of the consumption level and per capita disposable income is 0.5858; this shows that with the income levels rising, people tend to keep consumption of insurance products, while consumption of other products do not increase greatly. This is mainly because the income higher, the risk awareness stronger and the insurance products consume more.3.3 Regression analysisPremium income as the interpreted variable, personal income levels, the retail price index as explanatory variables for regression, the regression results are as follows: Table3. The regression model of premium levelDependent Variable: BAOFEIMethod: Least SquaresDate: 06/17/09 Time: 10:48Sample(adjusted): 1991 2007Included observations: 17 after adjusting endpointsVariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb. INCOME108.84072.22353348.949430.0000RETAIL-44.737935.418658-8.2562760.0000C-11957.341484.072-8.0571150.0000R-squared0.995402 Mean dependent var17196.84Adjusted R-squared0.994745 S.D. dependent var16734.44S.E. of regression1213.076 Akaike info criterion17.19849Sum squared resid20601735 Schwarz criterion17.34553Log likelihood-143.1872 F-statistic1515.428Durbin-Watson stat1.423726 Prob(F-statistic)0.000000Table4. Autocorrelation testBreusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:F-statistic3.995125Probability0.056793Obs*R-squared6.795025Probability0.078456Table5. White testWhite Heteroskedasticity Test:F-statistic0.202972Probability0.931873Obs*R-squared1.077287Probability0.897859According to the P value from Table 3, we can see that the estimated values of coefficients of explanatory variables are significantly non-zero (95% confidence level). By the adjusting goodness-of-fit is 0.99 which shows that premium indicators have been to explain the extent of 99%. The result is relatively excellent. From Table 4 and Table 5, P value is shown in the conditions of 95 percents confidence level, the model has not heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation. So we draw with the regression relationship of premium, income and the consumption level. The formula is as follows: （1）From the formula (1) we can see that the level of personal income increases one unit, the premium level increases 108.84 units, which fully reflects when people reach a certain income level, people dislike risk. The more risk-averse insured, he hopes to pay higher insurance premiums. We purchase the insurance to avoid unnecessary risks and increase the security sense. The relation is negative between the consumption level and insurance products. The consumer price index increases one unit, the premium level decreases 44.74 units, which shows that in some cases revenue, increasing consumption of insurance is bound to reduce consumption of other products. The above model studied the consumption of insurance products needs through profiling demand, but profiling demand is conversed by invisible demand, which means profiling consume greater, the invisible demand of insurance products consume greater.It should be noted that our model is built on the small samples. Because of limited data, the model does not fully reflect the reality. The invisible demand of insurance products is difficult to directly quantify, so the model needs further improvement.4 The Depth Development of Insurance Products Based on the Invisible Demand4.1 The innovation mechanism of making invisible demand into the productIn the process of invisible demand transforming to profile demand, we can use the function of product to subdivide different demands for customs and develop a series of product features. The ultimate goal of insurance product development is to meet the demand of customer. It is clear that multi-functional products meet the diverse demands is beneficial for both producer and consumer. We must consider a variety of invisible demand elements, select features to meet different individual demand, and translate them into new products. When the product innovation meets customer demand for the time being, with the popularity of such products and enhancements of product functionality of customer awareness, customers have recreated a new invisible requirement, which prompts a new round of insurance product development of production enterprises.4.2 The new product development based on the demand selectionMost of invisible demand has not been exploited for service, so carrying out this property will make customers surprised extremely. But new products exploitation is also difficulty and there are potential risks of new products exploitation. Therefore, the insurance companies must also take fully into the risk of selection of insurance product development. In the new product development process, we do not only pay attention to customer changing demands, but also to the characteristics of rival products, and adjust the development strategy at any time on the above characteristics.References1 Wang Baoxin, Consumer demand identify and marketing strategic choice J, Market Weekly, 2003, 12, P32-33(Ch).2 Luo Yongtai, The definition of invisible demand and the demand analysis J, Nankai Business Review, 2006, 3, P6(Ch).3 Sun Ping, Initial Theory of Intangible products market J, China Industrial Economy, 1999, 12(Ch).4 Pu Guohua, The advent of the knowledge should pay attention to the invisible products statistics J, Statistical Research, 1999, 1(Ch).5 Zhang Xiaotong. Basis of econometric M. Tianjin: Nankai University Press, 2005.译文：回归分析在无形的保险产品的需求摘要:在无形的需求的背景下,深入研究,阐述了不同的结果国内和外国学者的隐形需求相关研究的观点。本文从三个角度定性分析了不同保险产品和有形产品,显示出无形的保险产品的性质。通过相关分析和回归分析对保险产品和收入,消费,我们发现收入导致保险产品的不断消耗,即某一收入达到避免风险更强。所以它是一项重要的任务来开发新的保险产品,以满足人民不断需要基于无形的需求。 关键词:保险产品,无形的需求;回归分析;相关分析 1引言很多保险公司意识到,客户常常无法清楚地表达他们的要求。无形的需求研究的中国学者都分散在不同的研究领域和文档,并逐渐形成了一个相对的研究领域和研究在当前上下文。王宝新(2003)认为,有大量客户的无形需求除了分析需求。特别是无形的需求自定义更多的潜力,所以它有支付能力和冲动性购物属于无形的需求或无形需求。罗永泰(2006)提出了基于产品的深度开发,这将帮助企业充分利用消费者的无形的资源需求。看不见的需求的变异和演化研究外国学者的理解之前,基思戈氏弗雷德Lemke(2005)认为,有时客户不理解他们的要求,也就是说,消费者或用户唯一没有直接认识到他们的要求。因为这些要求是意识层面,用户可以没有明确地表达这些需求。阿德里安斯莱沃斯基,Richard明智,卡尔韦伯(2005)提出创新是把握的起源看不见的客户的需求。企业必须明白现有产品和服务相关领域客户花更多的时间和金钱,而“需求创新”带来了新的利润。从上面的文献中,我们可以看到,有许多学者研究无形的需求而不是定量分析的基础上结合数据但主要理论分析。因此,本文旨在使用结合定性和定量的研究方法看不见对保险产品的需求。2 对保险产品和有形产品的区别比较 2.1 产品质量的更大的灵活性劳动有形产品可以批量生产。不同的生产材料,不同的必须过程,不同的生产技术水平会导致产品质量的差异。毕竟,有一个衡量标准为有形产品。相同种类的产品也可以用来比较和识别。是否保险产品是一个很好的很难衡量服务质量。2.2 前产品消费的歧义人们购买产品之前我们可以做某种不理解调试等接触,一些制造业也出售一些天庭审的承诺,以便消费者产品有更清晰的理解,以帮助做出最终购买决定,这样消费者有更清晰的了解产品,帮助人们做出购买决定。尽管人们了解保险产品在购买之前,消费者不能碰它,但看到它的外观。因此,做决定之前可能会有大量的歧义。 2.3同步过程的生产和消费有形产品的生产、储存、运输、销售等。这个过程对制造商生产行为,运输、储存和销售行为对企业的行为,因而扩大产品接触表面和势力范围。保险产品服务过程由卖方提供给买方的生产过程是消费的过程。同步的两个极限范围保险产品。保险产品的规模和地理范围有限制竞争。在有形产品的购买,所有权转移。购买后,消费者可以将产品转移到他人,如果消费者不满意的事件,也可以改变。所有权的转移并不发生在保险产品的购买和转让权利将不再出去。它将很难改变,如果消费者不满意的产品。 3看不见的保险产品的需求的定量分析随着个人收入水平上升,人们的消费也在不断上升。在过去,人们只有在食品问题上fo-cused和服装幸福,现在不断追求精神上的需求,然后导致相关服务的发展。保险行业是一种必要的需求和需求也不断增加。它不同于普通的产品,付款之后,你买一个稳定的心理和一种风险。3.1数据选择我们主要研究有关产品的无形的需求。因为看不见的de-mand是在实践中难以衡量和分析需求从无形的需求,我们选择pro-filing需求取代无形的需求。在本文中,我们选择零售价格指数(零售),人均可支配收入(收入),人们的消费和收入水平并选择保费收入(BAOFEI)保险消费者的消费。这三个指标是基于1978 = 100作为基期指数。据国家统计局Statis-tics网站,我们得到的数据间隔时间是1985年,1990年,从1993年到2007年。数据如下:表1 从1985年到2007年的数据指标 YearBAOFEIINCOMERETAIL1985192.3160.4128.119901200.0198.1207.719933507.7255.1254.919942892.3276.8310.219953484.6290.3356.119964138.5301.6377.819975938.5311.9380.819989661.5329.9370.9199910815.4360.6359.8200012292.3383.7354.4200116223.1416.3351.6200223492.3472.1347200329846.2514.6346.7200433215.4554.2356.4200537938.5607.4359.3200643384.6670.7362.9200754123.1752.3376.73.2相关分析使用EViews3.1软件根据表1中的数据,我们处理相关分析分别的溢价水平,消费和收入(收入)。结果如下:表二 指标之间的相关程度 CORRBAOFEIINCOMERETAILBAOFEI1.00000.98640.4566INCOME0.98641.00000.5858RETAIL0.45660.58581.0000从表2中我们发现,相关程度的保费收入和人均可支配收入是0.9864,而相关的消费水平和人均可支配收入是0.5858,这表明随着收入水平上升,保险产品的人们倾向于保持消费,而消费的其他产品,不大大增加。这主要是因为收入高,风险意识强,保险产品消费更多。3.3回归分析保费收入作为解释变量、个人收入水平、零售价格指数作为解释变量回归,回归结果如下:表三 溢价水平的回归模型 Dependent Variable: BAOFEIMethod: Least SquaresDate: 06/17/09 Time: 10:48Sample(adjusted): 1991 2007Included observations: 17 after adjusting endpointsVariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb. INCOME108.84072.22353348.949430.0000RETAIL-44.737935.418658-8.2562760.0000C-11957.341484.072-8.0571150.0000R-squared0.995402 Mean dependent var17196.84Adjusted R-squared0.994745 S.D. dependent var16734.44S.E. of regression1213.076 Akaike info criterion17.19849Sum squared resid20601735 Schwarz criterion17.34553Log likelihood-143.1872 F-statistic1515.428Durbin-Watson stat1.423726 Prob(F-statistic)0.000000表四 自相关检验Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:F-statistic3.995125Probability0.056793Obs*R-squared6.795025Probability0.078456表五 白色检验White Heteroskedasticity Test:F-statistic0.202972Probability0.931873Obs*R-squared1.077287Probability0.897859根据表3 P值,我们可以看到,解释变量的系数的估计价值显著非零(95%置信水平)。调整的拟合优度指标是0.99,这表明溢价已经透露程度为99%。结果是比较优秀的。从表4和表5所示P值的condi-tions 95置信水平,模型没有异方差和自相关。所以我们与溢价的回归关系,收入和消费水平。公式如下: （1）从公式(1)我们可以看到,个人收入水平的增加一个单位,溢价水平增加108.84个单位,这充分反映出当人们达到一定的收入水平,人们不喜欢风险。规避风险的保险越多,他希望有关单据支付更高的保险费。我们购买保险,以避免不必要的风险,提高安全意识。消费水平之间的关系是负和保险产品。消费者价格指数增加一个单位,溢价水平降低44.74个单位,这表明,在某些情况下收入,保险消费的增加必然会减少其它产品的消费。上述模型研究了保险产品的消费需要通过分析需求,但需求分析是交谈通过无形的需求,这意味着分析消耗更大,保险产品消费的无形的需求更大。应该指出的是,我们的模型是建立在小样本。由于有限的数据,模型并不完全反映现实。保险产品的无形的需求难以直接量化,因此,模型需要进一步改进。4 保险产品的深度开发基于无形的需求4.1使无形的需求到产品的创新机制 配方的过程中无形的需求转换概要文件的需求,我们可以使用产品细分不同的功能要求海关和开发一系列的产品特性。保险产品开发的最终目标是满足客户的需求。很明显,多功能产品满足不同要求生产者和消费者都是有益的。我们必须考虑各种无形的需求元素,选择特性来满足不同个体的需求,并将其转化为新产品。当产品科技创新满足客户的需求,随着这类产品的普及和增强产品功能的客户意识,客户已经重新创建一个新的无形的需求,促使新一轮的保险产品开发生产企业.4.2新产品开发基于选择的需求 最无形的需求还没有被利用的服务,所以这个属性会让顾客感到惊讶非常。但新产品开发也是困难和有潜在风险的新产品开发。因此,保险公司必须考虑完全选择保险产品开发的风险。在新产品开发过程中,我们不仅注重客户不断变化的需求,而且竞争对手产品的特点,随时调整发展战略的特点。 参考文献1王宝信,消费者需求识别和营销战略选择J,每周市场,2003年,12日P32-33(Ch)。2罗永泰,无形的需求定义和需求分析J,南开商业评论,2006年,3、P6(Ch)。3太阳平,最初的理论无形产品的市场研究J,中国工业经济,1999,12(Ch)。4聚氨酯国华、知识的出现应注意无形产品统计J,统计研究,1999,(Ch)。5张小同。计量经济学基础M。天津:南开大学出版社,2005年。
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