工程风险管理文献翻译.docx

1.1Change is inherent in construction work. For years, industry has had avery poor reputation for coping with the adverse effects of change, withmany projects failing to meet deadlines and cost and quality targets. Thisis not too surprising considering that there are no known perfect engineers,anymore than there are perfect designs or that the forces of nature behavein a perfectly predictableway. Change cannot be eliminated, but by apply-ing the principles of risk management, engineers are able to improve theeffective management of this change.变化是固有的建设工作。多年来，行业已经有很差的声誉，为应对变化的不利影响，许多项目未能按时完成，成本和质量目标。这是不是太令人惊讶的考虑，有没有已知的完美工程师，再比有完美的设计，或自然的力量的表现在完全predictableway。改变不能被淘汰，而是通过申请，ING风险管理的原则，工程师能够提高这一变化的有效管理。变化存在在建设工作中。多年来，行业内许多项目因没有没有按时完成或超出预算或没有达到质量标准，行业在应对变化所带来的负面影响上有很差的声誉。变化不能被完全消除，但是通过风险管理，工程师能够更有效地管理变化。Change is normally regarded in terms of its adverse effects on projectcost estimates and programmes. In extreme cases, the risk of these timeand cost overruns can invalidate the economic case for a project, turning a potentially protable investment into a loss-making venture. A riskevent implies that there is a range of outcomes for that event which couldbe both more and less favourable than the most likely outcome, andthat each outcome within the range has a probability of occurrence. Theaccumulation, or combinations of risks can be termed project risk. Thiswill usually be calculated using a simulation model (see Chapter 7). It isimportant to try to capture all the potential risks to the project even ifthey are not strictly events or a calculation of project risk.变化通常被视为其对项目的不利影响成本估算和方案。在极端情况下，这些风险项目成本超支无效的经济情况下，亏损的风险变成一个潜在的有利可图的投资。一个风险事件意味着该事件是有成果的范围可既比最可能的结果不太有利，每个结果的范围内有一个发生的概率。 “可以称为项目风险的积累，或风险组合。这通常会使用仿真模型（见第七章）计算。这是重要尝试捕获所有潜在风险的项目，即使它们不是严格的事件或项目风险计算。人们常认为变化会给项目成本预算带来负面影响。在极端情况下，这些超时完成、成本超支的风险会使一向原本有利润的项目变成一项带来损失的投资。一件风险事件意味着它有可能引起各种极有可能发生的后果，且比原先最有可能发生的后果更有利或不利。这些风险程度能通过某种仿真模型来计算。抓住项目所有的潜在的风险，这很重要。In construction projects each of the three primary targets of cost, timeand quality will be likely to be subject to risk and uncertainty. It followsthat a realistic estimate is one which makes appropriate allowances forall those risks and uncertainties which can be anticipated fromexperienceand foresight. Project managers should undertake or propose actionswhich eliminate the risks before they occur, or reduce the effects of risk oruncertainty and make provision for them if they occur when this is possibleand cost effective. It is vital to recognise the root causes of risks, and not toconsider risks as events that occur almost at random. Risks can frequentlybe avoided if their root causes are identied and managed before theadverse consequence the risk event occurs. They should also ensurethat the remaining risks are allocated to the parties in a manner which islikely to optimise project performance.在每一个建设项目的成本，时间的三个主要目标和质量将有可能受到风险和不确定性。它遵循一个现实的估计是一个适当的津贴所有这些风险和可预期的fromexperience的不确定性和远见。项目经理应当承担或建议的行动消除风险发生之前，或减少风险的影响，或不确定性themif andmake的提供他们occurwhen这是可能的和成本效益。至关重要的是要认识到风险的根源，而不是几乎在随机发生的事件考虑风险。风险可以经常可以避免的，如果确定其根源和前管理发生的不良后果 - 风险事件 - 。他们还应当确保剩余的风险分配的方式，这是各方可能优化项目性能。在建筑工程中，成本、时间和质量这三大目标都处于风险和不确定性之下。我们可以通过以前的经验和远见来预测风险和不确定性，并准备适当的津贴。项目经理应该在风险发生前采取措施来使之减少或降低它们的影响。当风险发生时，若在操作和成本上可行，项目经理应采取修正措施。辨识风险源，而不认为风险事件是随机发生的，这一点至关重要。如果风险源在风险事件发生前被辨识出来且被掌控，很多风险通常都能避免。项目经理同样要确保，剩下的风险由相关方负责，使项目进展最优化。Toachievetheseaimsitissuggestedthatasystematicapproachisfollowed:toidentifytherisksources,toquantifytheireffects(riskassess-mentandanalysis),todevelopmanagementresponsestoriskandnallytoprovideforresidualriskintheprojectestimates.Thesefourstagescomprisethecoreoftheprocessofriskmanagement.Riskmanagementcanbeoneofthemostcreativetasksofprojectmanagement.为实现降低风险、优化项目的目标，应采取系统性的方法辨别风险源，量化其后果（即风险评估、风险分析），制定风险应对管理方案，并为项目中其他风险做准备。这四个环节是风险管理的核心过程。风险管理师项目管理中最具有创意的任务之一。风险管理的优点总结如下：项目事宜从初始阶段就被阐明、理解且考虑；任何决定都有足够的分析来支撑；项目的定义和结构获连续性的掌控；对特定的风险由更清晰的理解；能建立起历史数据供将来的风险管理参考。1.2Risk management is a particular form of decision making within project management, which is itself the topic ofmany textbooks and papers. Risk management is not about predicting the future. It is about understanding your project andmaking a better decision with regard to themanagementof your project, tomorrow. Sometimes that decision may be to abandon the project. If that is the correct outcome which saves various parties from wasting time, money and skilled human resources, then the need for a rational, repeatable, justiable risk methodology and risk interpreta-tion is paramount. Nevertheless, the precise boundaries between decision making and the aspects of other problem-solving methodologies have always been difcult to establish.风险管理是一个特别的决定，在项目管理，它本身的的主题ofmany教科书和文件的形式。风险管理是不是预测未来。据有关了解你的项目andmaking更好的决策方面themanagement您的项目，明天。有时，这一决定可能会放弃该项目。如果这是正确的结果，从而节省了浪费时间，金钱和熟练的人力资源，则需要一个理性的，可重复的，合理的风险的方法和风险释义，各方TION是至关重要的。然而，之间的决策和其他解决问题的方法等方面的精确边界一直难以确定。风险管理是项目管理中做决定的一种特殊形式，也是许多教科书和论文的课题。风险管理不是预测未来，而是理解项目并在将来的项目管理上做出更好的决定。有时也许会决定放弃项目，如果这是防止各方浪费时间、金钱和专业人力资源的正确做法，那么一个理性的、合理的风险方法论和风险阐述是很重要的。否则，很难清楚地界定此项决策和其他解决问题的方法。In essence, decisions are made against a predetermined set of objectives, rules and/or priorities based upon knowledge, data and information relevant to the issue although too often this is not the case. Frequently decisions are ill-founded, not based on a logical assessment of project-specic criteria and lead to difculties later. It is not always possible to have conditions of total certainty; indeed in risk management it is most likely that a considerable amount of uncertainty about the construction project exists at this stage.从本质上讲，对预定的目标，规则和/或基于知识，虽然问题有关的数据和信息的优先事项作出决定，往往并非如此。决定经常是生病成立，而不是基于逻辑评估一个项目的具体标准，并导致困难。这并不总是可能有完全确定的情况下，确实在风险管理，它是最有可能的，在这个阶段中存在大量的有关建设项目的不确定性。实际上，在事先设定的目标、规则或根据先前相关知识、数据和信息的基础上，才能做出决策。但通常，决策的立足点不对不是建立在项目特点定的标准下的逻辑性评估之上。完全确定的情况很少发上，在风险管理中，很可能是建设项目中存在很多不确定。The terms risk and uncertainty can be used in different ways. The word risk originated from the French word risqu, and began to appear in England, in its anglicised form, around 1830, when it was used in insurance transactions. Risk can be, and has been, dened in many ways and assessed in terms of fatalities and injuries, in terms of probability of reliability, in terms of a sample of a population or in terms of the likely effects on a project. All these methodologies are valid and particular industries or sectors have chosen to adopt particular measures as their standard approach. As this book concentrates on engineering projects, risk is dened in the project context, and broadly follows the guidelines and terminology adopted by the British Standard on Project Management BS 6079, The Association for Project Management Body of Knowledge,The Association for Project Management Project Risk Analysis and Management Guide, the Institution of Civil Engineers and the Faculty of Actuaries Risk Analysis and Management for Projects Guide and the HM Treasury, Central Unit on Procurement Guide on Risk Assessment.可以用不同的方式的条款的风险和不确定性。字风险源自其外法语单词有伤风化，并开始出现在英国，在英国化的形式，1830年左右，当它被用在保险交易。风险可以，一直以来，在很多方面定义和评估中的死亡和受伤人数，在概率可靠性方面，在人口样本的条款，或在一个项目可能产生的影响方面。所有这些方法是有效的和特定行业或部门选择采用particularmeasures作为其标准的做法。因为这本书对工程项目集中，风险是指在项目范围内，并广泛遵循的指导方针和术语上ProjectManagement通过由英国人还不赖标准BS6079，该协会的项目管理知识体系，TheAssociation为ProjectManagement ProjectRiskAnalysis和管理指南，土木工程师学会和精算师风险分析和管理项目指南的HMTreasury，中央单位采购风险评估指南学院。风险和不确定性，这两个术语可以使用在不同情况下。risk这个词起源于法语risqu，1830年左右出现在英语中，当时这个词使用在保险交易中。风险这个词被多重定义，它可以度量死伤程度、可靠度。所有这些方法都是有效的，个别行业在它们的标准方法里采取了特定的措施。这本书主要讲工程项目，所以风险的定义基于工程背景上，总体上遵循了英国工程管理标准（BS6079）的规则。A number of authors state that uncertainty should be considered as separate fromrisk because the two terms are distinctly different. Uncertainty can be regarded as the chance occurrence of some event where the probability distribution is genuinely not known. This means that uncertainty relates to the occurrence of an event about which little is known,except the fact that itmay occur. Those who distinguish uncertainty from risk dene risk as being where the outcome of a event, or each set ofpossible outcomes, can be predicted on the basis of statistical probability. This understanding of risk implies that there is some knowledge about a risk as a discrete event or a combination of circumstances, as opposed to an uncertainty about which there is no knowledge. In most cases, project risks can be identied fromexperience gained by working on similar projects.一个作者的状态的不确定性，应作为单独的fromrisk考虑，因为这两个词是截然不同的。不确定性可以被视为发生一些事件的概率分布是真正不知道其中的机会。这意味着这种不确定性除了事实itmay发生，涉及哪些鲜为人知的是事件发生。谁区分从风险的不确定性，界定为风险事件的结果，或每个组可能的结果，可以预测的概率统计的基础上。这对风险的认识，意味着作为一个独立的事件或情况相结合，而不是有没有知识的不确定性的风险，有一些知识。在大多数情况下，可以识别项目风险从类似项目工作中取得的经验。