全球不平衡及其中国的对策余永定,2007年

单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,*,全球不平衡及其中国的对策,余永定,200,年月,8,日，研究生院，,Beijing,全球不平衡,Source: FT Oct 18 2006,World Bank prediction , October 2006,美国经常项目逆差和净外债,-GDP,比,美国经常项目逆差,:,$8690,亿美元,美国经常项目逆差,-GDP,比,: 7%,墨西哥,:7.8%,泰国,:8.1%,美国,净外债,-GDP,比,: 30%,The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced on March 14 2006,What will be the direction?,Check niip figure,全球不平衡的可持续性,美国的净外债,-GDP,比是否会趋于某一稳定值？否则,债务国（美国）最终将因为无法还本、付息而陷于破产。,例如，如美国的外债,-GDP,比超过,200%,，美国是否还有能力把,GDP,中的一部分用于还本付息？如果可以，比例超过,500%,时呢？,在趋于某一可接受稳定值的过程中，外国是否会继续为美国的经常项目逆差融资。,换言之，美元资产风险的提高，顺差国是否愿意继续保持对美国的经常项目顺差？,美国国际收支不平衡的变动历史,Debt balance/GDP,Current account deficit/GDP,80,年代初开始，逐步增加，最近加速增加。粉线是否回无限向右上访延伸？趋势线的外推是不够的。,1.NIIP status quo: NIIP ratio,25 percent of GDP, current account deficit to 1.5 percent of GDP,2.Current account status quo: the current account deficit at about 5 percent of GDP,the NIIP would stabilize at,83 percent of GDP,. In other words we have a long way to go.,3.Productivity view: 4 percent of GDP, which would imply a NIIP of,67 percent,.,4.Global wealth view: a current account deficit narrowing to about 3 percent of GDP and an NIIP at about,50 percent of GDP,. 5. Issing view: the US current account deficit has to shrink to 2 percent of GDP, implying an,NIIP of 33 percent,. 6. Zero trade deficit: The logic of the primary-deficit/-surplus approach implies that the United States will eventually have to reduce its deficit on goods and services to zero. Net lending to the United States would be limited to the amount sufficient to cover net income payments (currently approximately zero) and net transfer payments (currently approximately half a percent of GDP). With a current account deficit 0.5 percent of GDP, the implied NIIP would shrink to,8 percent of GDP,.,美国经济学家对美国净外债,-GDP,比极限值的估算,Where,z,is NIIP/GDP ratio,ca,is the CA/GDP ratio,，,n,is growth rate According to the simulation made by a student of mine. assuming starting from 2003, we have the following initial conditions,，,NIIP/GDP,，,ca= constant =4.82%,，,The nominal growth rate of GDP = constant = 4.9%. The corresponding specific solution should be,：,美国净外债,/GDP,比的动态增长路径及稳定值的确定,净外债,-GDP,比的国际经验,澳大利亚：,60 % GDP,in the mid-1990s,爱尔兰：,70 % GDP,in the 1980s,新西兰：,90 % GDP,in the late 1990s.,这些都是成功国家,贸易顺差国是否会继续为美国逆差融资？,日本等发达国家,东亚新兴工业化经济,(excluding Japan and China),Before and after the Asian Financial,Crisis,Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia (figs.),石油输出国,Price changes,Safe heaven,中国,日本,经常顺差会减少吗？,But the enterprise saving rate is still very high.,Will this rate fell as a result of improvement of the economy?,政府贡献为负,居民储蓄,+,政府储蓄,+,企业储蓄,-,投资,=,经常项目顺差,东亚国家贸易顺差的变动趋势,以泰国为例,恢复到原有格局,石油输出国：将随价格变动而变动,历史经验：价格,-,储蓄缺口,-,贸易顺差,-,不稳定（比较日本）,全球不平衡纠正对世界经济的冲击,美元是否会急剧贬值？,美国的看法,:,美元贬值具有自动纠正机制,美国的债权（外国的债务）,-,当地货币,美国债务减少,外国的债权（美国的债务）,-,美元,外国债权减少（谁最害怕美元贬值？,我的评论,: not so sure. Big corrections happened in 1970s,1980s and 1990s. Even the likelihood may not high, the damage could be tremendous, if it happens.,美元在相当一段时期内继续贬值大概是不可避免的,(see next page),在外债,/GDP,比不断增长,经济趋于疲软,利息率开始下降,美元贬值对,世界,经济的影响,贸易,直接,间接,国际资本流动,美元实际有效汇率的贬值,什么时候触底？,全球不平衡对中国的影响,人民币升值压力,美国的最大贸易顺差国，美元贬值在很大程度上表现为人民币的升值。美国经常项目逆差的存在,=,人民币升值压力的存在。,中国开放金融服务业、资本项目自由化的压力将会增加（交换条件）。,资本流入,全球流动性过剩,原因另行讨论，并不完全同全球不平衡直接相关（如日本的零利息率）,分散化（,diversification away from US assets),美国房地产泡沫,经济减速,美元贬值,中国资产的吸引力,中国增长势头,资产价格增长的潜力,升值预期,风险的降低（银行改革、政府注资等）,中国在全球不平衡下的经济政策,长期增长战略的调整,中、短期政策,经济增长与国际收支结构的变化,年轻债务国：,由于经济发展水平和储蓄水平低，必须从外国获取商品和资本，该国经常项目中的贸易项目和投资收入项目（债务利息和,FDI,红利）同时是逆差。经常项目逆差通过资本项目顺差来弥补，因而该国是债务国。,成熟债务国：,由于出口行业的发展，贸易项目由逆差转变成顺差，但贸易顺差还不足以抵消投资收益逆差。该国依然有经常项目逆差和资本项目顺差。,债务偿还国：,该国经常项目中的投资收益项目依然是逆差，但贸易顺差抵消了投资收益（债务利息和,FDI,红利）汇出，因此呈现经常项目顺差和资本项目逆差，即该国已成为资本输出国。,年轻债权国：,经常项目顺差和资本项目逆差进一步增加。此时，该国的投资收益已经由逆差转变为顺差。,成熟债权国：,由于人口老龄化、竞争力下降等原因，该国将出现贸易逆差。但 是，由于海外资产的积累，投资收益项目的顺差大量增加，该国依然能够保持经常项目顺差。,债权减损国：,由于储蓄不足，投资收益顺差不足以抵消贸易逆差、资本项目出现顺差（海外资本回流）。该国的海外资本净值逐渐减少。如果这种趋势无法扭转，该国将无可避免地陷入衰弱。,典型国家经济发展和国际收支结构变化的六阶段。,i,s,0,ca,投资收入,/GDP,贸易差额,/GDP,经常项目差额,/GDP,居民储蓄率,投资率,I,II,III,IV,V,VI,参与国际分工与,跨国资源配置,的改善,跨国资源配置,比较利益决定商品的进出口排序,需求对进出口排序的影响,汇率对进出口排序的影响,汇率过高：有比较优势，应该出口的产品不能出口,汇率过低：没有比较优势，不应该出口的产品被出口,比较优势原则与贸易平衡（或国际收支平衡）的需要可能不一致,经常项目顺差与,跨代资源配置,：以日本为例,日本是典型的长期保持经常项目顺差和资本项目逆差的国家。多年来的贸易顺差和资本输出可以看作是日本为迎接老龄社会到来所作的准备。,2005,年日本海外,投资收益达到,11.4,万亿日元。与此同时，其贸易顺差为,10.4,万亿日元。这是日本历史上,投资收益顺差首次超过贸易顺差,。,日本经济学界把这一转变看作是一个标志性历史事件。同中国的双顺差相对照，日本学者把他们的贸易项目顺差和投资收入项目顺差称之为支持经常项目顺差的“双引擎”（参见,Kojima Akira,：,Balance Adjusted,，,The Japan Journal July 2006,，,10-12,）。法国、荷兰、新加坡等国家处于年轻债权国阶段，而日本正处于由年轻债权国向成熟债权国过渡的阶段。,国家,出口增长速度,(%),经常项目逆差对出口比率,(%),中国,墨西哥,韩国,阿根廷,马来西亚,巴西,泰国,土耳其,委内瑞拉,印度,智利,印度尼西亚,菲律宾,14.1,8.6,7.3,5.7,14.2,3.3,16.5,10.4,7.4,6.5,10.3,11.5,11.0,-7.1,28.5,3.8,21.4,5.1,3.3,17.7,3.0,-8.8,25.4,3.6,9.8,13.0,平均数,发展中国家平均数,10.3,7.3,5.1,15.3,资料来源：世界银行报告,东亚资本流动管理,，,1995,年,5,月。,发展中国家经常项目逆差和出口增长的对比关系,(1989-1993),泰国,马来西亚,印尼,日本,中国国际收支结构所存在的四大问题,人均收入列世界第,128,的贫困国家，保持大量贸易顺差（经常项目出差净资本输出）,登布什：对于一个贫穷国家，不把资源用于国内投资以提高生产率和生活水平，而将其用于购买美国国库券肯定是不理智的。”,作为世界第三大引资国（,FDI),，中国所出售的股权（,=FDI,流入）被转化为美元债权,威廉姆森：引资国“必须把资本流入转化为经常项目逆差”,储备资产（,=,双顺差的累积）的价值面临美元下跌的威胁,马丁沃尔夫： 以,JPMorgans trade-weighted real exchange rate,计，,2002,年以来已贬值,23%,，美元贬值还远未结束（下图）,国际收支平衡的可持续性,经常项目平衡 （外贸逆差,-,投资收入）,跨代资源配置,中国国际收支的特点：双顺差,作为一个发展中国家，为什么中国长期保持了贸易顺差,?,正的储蓄,-,投资缺口,Chinas Saving Rate and Investment Rate,经济的周期性波动,Eg,1993,1997,the so-called self-balancing,regulation,exchange rate policy,tax,rebate,Local governments special policies,政府的出口导向政策,业已形成的加工贸易的支配地位,Chinas central place in global production networks,Capital, technology, equipment, high-tech parts & components,Primary commodities & natural resources, resource-based products,Financial, commercial & legal services,Japan, Korea, Taiwan,Asean, Australia,Hong Kong, Singapore,Surplus,Surplus,Surplus,Manufacturing, processing, assembling, turning “Made in Asia” into “Made in China”,Europe,USA,Rest of world,Surplus,Surplus,Surplus,China:,And, shipping to,John Wong, EAI, NUS.,加工贸易在中国贸易顺差中的作用,Processing trade will lead to current account surplus by definition,Among Chinas USD 102 billion trade surplus,USD 57 billion was created by,FFEs,USD 140 billion was created by processing trade,作为一个储蓄过剩的国家，即经常项目顺差国，中国为什么吸引了如此大量的外资？,在没有市场扭曲的情况下，资本流入必然转化为相应的经常项目逆差,资本流入导致经常项目逆差的两个渠道,利息率渠道,汇率渠道,Price of assets,i,Chinese assets,p,SUPPLY,Demand 1,Demand 2,capital inflows,rise in stock and real estate prices,fall in the interest rate,increase the investment-saving gap,（储蓄下降，投资增加）,current account deficit,.,Changes in the interest rate will equilibrate the demand for and supply of Chinese assets and at the same time Chinas international balance of payments will be balanced, after a series of interactions among numerous variables, at a corresponding level, with increases in capital inflows and current account deficit.,金融市场发展的严重滞后,intermediation,via the US financial,market,资本管制,Capital,control, it is difficult to convert the RMB funds into foreign exchanges,所有制因素,FDI,is a “free lunch”. Who cares, if the payments are due in 5 to 10 years time?,财政体系,FDI,is indispensable for increasing tax revenues at local levels,政绩观,FDI,attraction is one of the most important criteria, if not the most important criterion, for good governance,外逃资本的回流,Round-tripping,(HK, Virgin Islands),引进国际战略投资者的改革战略,In,order to the reform of state-own enterprises and commercial banks, the merge and acquisition of Chinese firms by foreign investors and the acquirement of shares by “international strategic investors”,. As a way of improving corporate governance,导致转化失灵的原因：,纠正双顺差：台湾学者的经验之谈,孙震,第一，大陆虽每年接受,FDI,近,500,亿美元，但实际上是资本输出国。中国以其顺差供美国消费与投资，再以顺差所赚获之外汇予以融通，而不能不忧心美元可能贬值，造成损失。过度的外汇储备反映常年以偏低的币值补贴出口所牺牲的经济福利。,第二，金融系统未能有效分配资金，不生产与低生产力部门获得相对较多的资金，高生产力部门反而获得相对较少的资金，甚至得不到资金，不仅造成过高之不良债权，亦不利于资源之有效利用。,第三，经济权力下放，地方政府各自“招商引资”，不遗余力，导致过度投资与重复投资，终必拖累经济之长期成长。当前看的不可持续性,第一、增加旨在完善社会保障体系、医疗体系以及教育体系的公共支出，以降低居民对未来的不确定性，从而降低储蓄。,第二、通过财政和其他手段（如法律、法规），缩小城乡、地区和阶层收入差距，提高低收入群体的收入，使之得以增加消费支出。,第三、深化国内金融市场、投融资体系改革，使国内储蓄能够顺利转化为国内投资。,第四、进一步完善汇率形成机制。,第五、逐步取消针对的优惠政策，对内、外资实行国民待遇。,第六、逐步取消出口导向政策，特别是对出口加工贸易的优惠政策。,第七、制止地方政府把,FDI,的引入状况作为政绩的考核标准。采取有力措施，制止地方政府为引入外资而进行恶性竞争。,第八、改革财税体制和政策，减少地方政府为增加财政收入干预企业经济活动的动力,第九、取消中央政府有关规划中的进出口和外资引入量指标（仅做预测）。,第十、各级政府制定应急预案，为出口企业的结构调整做好充分准备，把结构调整对经济和社会稳定造成的冲击降低到最低限度。,第十一、适当放松资本管制。但是不放弃用管制的办法遏制投资资本的流入。,第十二、鼓励企业在国内上市，国内的收购与兼并、鼓励三资企业利用国内金融市场筹集资金。,第十三、实行与,WTO,不相冲突的产业政策，鼓励国内企业自主创新。,第十四、进一步推进价格体制改革，使价格能够充分反映国内资源的稀缺性,环境污染代价。,中国的结构调整：,中国贸易顺差与汇率关系的两个猜想,汇率低估（加其他扭曲） ，出口了不具有比较优势的产品，未能进口不具有比较优势的产品。升值可以优化跨国资源配置。,汇率低估（加其他扭曲），低价出售了中国的股权，高价购买了外国的债券。升值可以优化跨代资源配置。,远虑,储蓄率和赡养率,中国未来投资收益差额的变化：年后出现经常项目逆差的可能性,回到前图,近忧,:,流动性过剩,+,经济增长速度下降,Exessive liquidity,基础货币,广义货币和,M 2/GDP,: 160%,Increase in credits by 3.18 trillion Yuan 2006, 27% above the target,Real interest tates are still very low,growth rate of housing price in Beijing 22.5% in 2005, 17%,in 2006, country-wide average 5.5%.,Inflation,1.5 %2006, 1.9 % Nov 2006, 2.8% Dec 2006,Share price soaring from 1000 to 3000 in a year,Over capacity in many industries + Worsening of trade friction,根据东亚经验，危机预案之一：,7,个环节,Assets bubble+inflation continue to worsen,High growth supported by FAI and exports expansion,Burst of the bubble,Growth rate slow down due to cyclical causes or tight policy aimed at containing the bubble,（下两页）,Trade friction-led slow down in exports,No more appreciation expectations,Assets prices seem peaked,bank crisis or credit crunch,Reversal of capital flows + large investment income outflows, if capital control has been abandoned,（下下下页）,Balance of payments crisis and currency crisis,Long-drawn deflation,第一道防线,: mopping-up excessive liquidity without jeopardize growth,Answers to the question of how to mopping-up excessive liquidity depends on the understanding of the causes of the excessive liquidity,Internal causes,External causes,流动性过剩的原因,1,Twin surpluses,($1750 billion +$60 billion ),Exchange rate policy,不希望升值,Intervention,Steriliazation +reserve requirements, but,不能百分之百对冲,Higher interest rates more inflows,Damages to the health of the banking sector,Increase in share of low yield CBBs in total assets,risker assets,Tax on the bank,Excessive liquidity left less than fully sterilized or cannot be fully sterilized,(,数字以后提供,),必须先确定原因,流动性过剩的原因,2: speculative capital inflows,Pull- in factors (high yeild + low risk ),Strong growth performance,Cheap assets prices,Interest rates abitrage,(Japans zero interest tate),RMB appreciation expectations,Implicit government guarantee,Easy exit,Push-out factors,Global excessive liquidity,If you are hedge funds or PE funds, what more can you hope for ?,除了正常经常项目顺差和资本项目顺差外,How to mop up excessive liquidity,In the long run,（详见下页）,Industrial policy: elemination of,preferential policy,towards FDI and exports,Structural reforms to boast domestic,consumption,Allow rmb to,revalue,with appropriate pace (the export sector bears some burden),In the short run,Continue,to sterilize, further,increase reserve requirments,(the banking sector bears some burden),Interest rates,can be increased (the real sector bears some burden),Strengthening,capital control, if we wish the above mentioned policy to be effective,The objective of short run policy is providing more breathing time for achieving long run objecitive of rebanlancing the economy,第二道防线,: role of banks in maintaining financial stability,Banks should be resilient in face of the PBOCs sterilization,Banks should act prudently in face of the global excessive liquidity,（日本）,Banks should be resilient in face of capital flight,（香港）,To achieve the above mentioned objectives, the restructuring of the banking sector is a necessary condition. The restructuring of the financial system, especially , the banking system is the most important acheivement China has achieved after the Asian crisis,China has all the problems that the rest of Asia has, and worse, with its financial system,Overbanking is serious,Equities are much more preferred assets to bonds,Among bonds, the share of Corporate bonds is very small,（见下图）,中国银行改革的成效,Restructuring of the banking system,NPLs (now is 7.5%),Capital adequacy (8%),CBRC,Corporate governmance,IPO $42 billion,Consolidation of stock markets,Make all shares tradable,Share price has recovered,Developing its bond markets, but pace is slow, because other more urgent concerns,其它关注是什么？,成效到底如何？改革的基本战略是否会成功,?,经济形势恶化时，银行是否能维持良好的状态？,.,第三道防线,:,加强跨境流动的监管,Effectiveness,(BIS, Ma and McCauley),Leaky,many in China think it is not worth efforts to patch it up,But still effective,严进宽出,questionable.,Last resort of Chinas financial stability,The key to Chinas success during the Asian crisis,It will continue to be so in the forseeable future,资本外逃导致危机的可能性,Chinas household saving deposits,amount to 17 trillion Yuan (= $ 2.3 trillion) and account for 85 percent of GDP in 2006.,supposing that households suddenly decided that they should hold 20 percent of their savings in the foreign assets, the total amount capital outflows will amount to,$ 400 billion.,Chinas FDI stock,500 billion and the corresponding investment income outflows can be as high as,$50 billion,-,$100 billion,Chinas balance of,foreign borrowing,is $305 billion,$169 billion short-term,If capital flows reverse, due to failure in macreoeconomic management. The Fragility of the banking system and the covertability of RMB means banlance of payments crisis, currency crisis, financial crisis and economic crisis,Serious works need to be done, by losening control of capita outflows will not discourage speculative capital inflows,If China will make a fatal mistake in the next 5 years, the mistake will be the prematured abandon of capital control aimed at reducing RMB appreciation pressure, before it has completed its economic reform.,How to prevent the worst scenario from happening,Caveat,Over the past twent five years, I have learnt to be optimistic about the Chinese economy.,Each time China muddled through, do not bet on Chinas fall, which will damage your academic reputation.,Thank you very much!,