项目组合管理

Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,*,精品资料网,Project Portfolio ManagementAn Introduction,李俊伟,November 2002Beijing,项目管理者联盟,MYPM.NET,Content,Emergence of Project Portfolio Management(PPM),Portfolio Management in Financial Market,Overview of PPM,PPM,Process and Techniques,2,The Emergence of Project Portfolio Management,1952,Modern Portfolio Theory(MPT),Harry Markowitz,Journal of Finance,Portfolio Selection,1990,Harry Markowitz shared Nobel Prize,dominant approach used to manage risk and return within financial markets,1981,F.Warren,McFarian,Portfolio Approach to Information Systems,HBR,to employ a risk-based approach to the selection and management of IT projects.,1990s,a broader use of ideas of portfolio management,1998,John Thorp,The Information Paradox.Portfolio management was used to manage risk and maximize return along a number of dimensions.,Present,portfolio management as central elements of good investment management,3,Portfolio Management,the overall picture,Focus,(Strategic,Planning),Source:PM Solutions,Portfolio Management,Dianne Bridges,Select,(Portfolio,Management),Manage,(Project,Management),4,Content,Emergence of Project Portfolio Management(PPM),Portfolio Management in Financial Market,Overview of PPM,PPM,Process and Techniques,5,The Old Philosophy about Portfolio,Dont put all your eggs in one basket.,Risk aversion seems to be an instinctive trait,in human beings.,精品资料网,6,Return and Risk in Financial Market,expected return,standard deviation(%),capital appreciation,growth,of income,0 6 12 18 24 30 36,20,18,16,14,12,10,8,6,4,2,0,income,inflation,T-bills,intermediate-term,government,bonds,long-term,government bonds,long-term,corporate bonds,large company stocks,small,company,stocks,stability,of principal,7,The Role of Combining Securities,The expected return of a portfolio is a,weighted average of the component expected returns.,8,The Role of Combining Securities,10,two-security,portfolio risk,=,risk,A,+,risk,B,+,interactive,risk,The total risk of a portfolio comes from the,variance of the components and from the relationships among the components.,9,The Role of Combining Securities,expected return,risk,better,performance,A portfolio,dominates,all others,if no other equally risky portfolio has a higher expected return,or if no portfolio with the same expected return has less risk.,The point of,diversification,is to achieve a,given level of expected return while bearing the least possible risk.,10,The Efficient Frontier:,Optimum Diversification of Risky Assets,expected return,risk,(standard deviation of returns),impossible,portfolios,dominated,portfolios,efficient frontier,The optimal combinations result in lowest level of risk for a given return,The optimal trade-off is described as the efficient frontier,11,The Efficient Frontier,vs,Naive Diversification,As portfolio size increases,total portfolio risk,on average,declines.After a certain point,however,the marginal reduction in risk from the addition of another security is modest.,total risk,Non-diversifiable,risk,number of securities,Naive diversification,is the random selection,of portfolio components without conducting any serious security analysis.,12,Risk Reduction with Diversification,Number of Securities,St.Deviation,Market Risk,Unique Risk,精品资料网,13,Market or systematic risk:risk related to the macro economic factor or market index,Unsystematic or firm specific risk:risk not related to the macro factor or market index,Total risk=Systematic+Unsystematic,Components of Risk,14,Two-Security Portfolios with Different Correlations,=1,13%,%8,E(r),St.Dev,12%,20%,=.3,=-1,=-1,15,Relationship depends on correlation coefficient,-1.0,+1.0,The smaller the correlation,the greater the risk reduction potential,If,=+1.0,no risk reduction is possible,Portfolio Risk/Return,Correlation Effects,16,Structuring a Portfolio:Asset Allocation,attitude,toward risk,need for,return,realized,return,and risk,with the,passage,of time,stocks,bonds,real,estate,cash,foreign,equities,Portfolio,ASSET,CLASSES,individual choice asset class mix investment results,17,Content,Emergence of Project Portfolio Management(PPM),Portfolio Management in Financial Market,Overview of PPM,PPM,Process and Techniques,18,What is project portfolio management,Portfolio Management is the project selection process and involves identifying opportunities:assessing the organizational fit;analyzing the costs,benefits,and risks;and developing and selecting a portfolio.,The art of project portfolio management is:doing the right thing,selecting the right mix of projects and adjusting as time evolves and circumstances unfold.,19,Portfolio Management is:,Defining goals and objectives clearly articulate what the portfolio is expected to achieve,Understanding,accelerating,and making tradeoffs determine how much to invest in one thing as opposed to something else,Identifying,eliminating,minimizing,and diversifying risk select a m