经济学发展经济学

,Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,#,Leading Theories of Economic Development:Five Approaches,Classical Scenario,古典经济增长理论,Linear-stages-of-growth model,线性增长模型,Neoclassical models,新古典增长模型,Endogenous growth,内生经济增长模型,亚当,斯密与报酬递增,产出、生活水平提高资本积累利润的储蓄工业和农业的专业化劳动分工,劳动分工决定了劳动生产率。,劳动分工提高劳动生产率有三种途径：,1,、工人工作技能的提升，即边干边学。,2,、分工的细化节省了在不同工作间转移的时间。,3,、机器的发明使同一个劳动者可以从事多种工作。,劳动分工受到市场规模的限制。,1,、如机器的使用只有在市场规模较大情况下才有经济性，否则就会出现剩余产品。,2,、自由贸易对市场规模的扩大有着积极的意义。,斯密的报酬递增观点是新内生经济增长理论的核心思想,古典悲观主义,TP*,TP,O,W,subsistence wage line,P,E,2,W,2,W,1,E,1,N,1,N,2,Labor,Total production,Original condition:,Labor:ON,1,Production:OP,Wage:N,1,W,1,Surplus:E,1,W,1,Demand for labor increase,Wages increase to E,1,N,1,N,1,W,1,According to Malthusian theory of population,population will increase to ON,2,;,Surplus appear again E,2,W,2,Equilibrium point:E,Technology development:,E*,the day of doom can not be eliminated,E,E*,Limitations of the classical model,The role of technology development has been grossly underestimated,The Malthusian theory of population growth has been proved to be misleading:,whenever wages are above level of subsistence,population will increase?,Too aggregated and did not account for the diversities with labor and capital input,The Linear-Stages Theory,Rostows stages of growth,The Harrod-Domar growth model,Obstacles and constraints,Some criticisms of the stages model,Rostow,s stages of growth,The Transition from underdevelopment to development can be descried in terms of a series of steps or stages through which all countries must proceed,the traditional society,the pre-conditions for take-off into self-sustaining growth,the take-off,the drive to maturity,the age of high mass-consumption,三种不同的增长率：,实际增长率,g;,有保证的增长率,g,w,;,自然增长率,g,n,实际增长率,The Harrod-Domar Model,(3.1),(3.2),(3.3),(3.4),v,:capital-output ratio;,S,:saving ratio;,S:total saving;Y:total output;,K:capital stock;I:total investment,有保证的增长率：这样一种增长率将引诱投资刚好等于计划的储蓄，保持资本完全被就业，从而制造商愿意在未来以过去相同的比例进行投资,The Harrod-Domar Model,(3.5),(3.6),(3.7),Harrod-Domar theory of economic growth,The rate of growth of economic output I s determined jointly by the national saving ratio,S,and national capital-output ratio,K,The main obstacle on development is the relatively low level of new capital formation in most poor countries,Justifying massive transfers of capital and technical assistance from developed to less developed nations,Saving and investment is the necessary condition for economic growth but not the sufficient condition,How about the ability of converting new capital effectively into high levels of output,managerial competence;,skilled labor;,well-integrated commodity and money market;,institutional settings;,infrastructures,Criticism of Harrod-Domar model,Stability of economic growth-Harrodian knife-edge,保证均衡增长：,g=g,w,一旦偏离均衡，即实际增长率与有保证增长率出现偏差，则这种偏离不会自行矫正，反而会加重,如实际增长率低于有保证的增长率，在初期储蓄率相同情况下，实际的资本产出比大于有保证的资本产出比，将出现资本品过剩，投资受到抑制，储蓄率进一步下降，投资受到抑制，使实际增长率更低于均衡增长率,如实际增长率高于有保证的增长率，则实际的资本产出率低于有保证的资本产出率，资本品不足会刺激投资，导致实际增长率进一步增大，更加偏离有保证的增长率，使得资本品更加不足,Stability of economic growth-Harrodian knife-edge,Stability of economic growth-Harrodian knife-edge,黄金时代定理,:actual growth rate=warranted growth rate=natural growth rate of the labor force.Thus n=s/v is the necessary condition for economic growth.,（,Joan Robinson,：,Golden Age rule,，,Cambridge University,）,自然增长率,-,取决于劳动力的增长速率和劳动生产率的增长速率,But s,v and n are determined independently and there is nothing that guarantees that s/v will be equal to n.thus the golden rule is very hard to achieve.,It is a knife-edge growth rate(very unstable system,with no mechanism to bring the economy back to the equilibrium growth rate).,When the economy is growing fast,it continues to grow even faster and goes beyond full employment(i.e.high inflation),but when growth is slow,it continues to grow even slower(i.e.high unemployment).,发展中国家的情况,自然增长率高于有保证的增长率,意味着有效劳动力增长高于资本积累速度，导致失业日益增长,意味着计划投资高于计划储蓄，产生通货膨胀压力,要使自然增长率趋近有保证的增长率,1,、控制人口规模,2,、控制劳动生产率增长幅度：效率与就业的冲突,3,、提高储蓄率,4,、使用劳动密集型技术降低所要求的资本产出比,Neoclassical growth model,In the Harrod-Domar growth model,steady-state growth was unstable.In the popular term of the day,it was a knife-edge in the sense that any deviation from that path would result in a further move away from that path,Robert M.,Solow,(1956),Trevor,Swan,(1956)and James E.,Meade,(1961)contested this conclusion.They claimed that the capital-output ratio of the Harrod-Domar model should not be regarded as exogenous.,Neoclassical model:the capital-output ratio,v,was precisely the adjusting variable that would lead a system back to its steady-state growth path,i.e.that v would move to bring s/v into equality with the natural rate of growth(n).The resulting model has become famously known as the Solow-Swan or simply the Neoclassical growth model.,新古典增长理论的三个基本命题,在长期稳定状态，产出的增长来自于有效的劳动力增长率（即劳动力的增长率加上劳动生产率的增长率），与储蓄率无关，更高的储蓄或投资比率被更高的资本产出比抵消。,人均收入水平取决于储蓄率或投资,GDP,比率，与人口增长率呈反比。,资本劳动比和资本生产率的反向关系使得发展中国家在人均资本数量较少的情况下