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Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,*,*,单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,*,*,单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,*,*,拉美的金融自由化与金融危机,Financial liberalization and financial crises in Latin America:A Chinese Perspective,社科院拉美所 江时学,Jiang Shixue,Institute of Latin American Studies,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,1,进口替代时期拉美的金融业Latin Americas financial sector during the ISI period,在实施进口替代工业化发展模式时,拉美国家仅注重实际经济的发展:工业化、农业现代化、对外贸易、技术转让,等等。金融部门在国民经济中的地位较低。,In the ISI era Latin America only emphasized the development of the so-called real economy like manufacturing,agriculture,trade,technology transfer,etc.Therefore,the position of the financial sector was marginalized.,2,虽然拉美国家也关注投资和融资,但关注的重点是如何吸引FDI,如何获取双边或多边援助,如何举借国际商业银行的贷款。,Though Latin America paid attention to investment and financing,it only focused on how to attract FDI,bank credit and foreign aids.,3,即便是影响拉美经济发展近40年的发展主义理论(或“中心外围”理论),也基本上没有涉及发展金融业的重要性。,Even Raul Prebisch and his“center-periphery theory”failed to recognize the importance of the financial sector.,4,70年代拉美国家的金融自由化,Latin American financial liberalization in the 1970s,70年代,南锥体国家(如智利、阿根廷、乌拉圭)曾实施过金融自由化。其内容是利率市场化、取消定向贷款和降低储备金率,等等。,In the 1970s the Southern Cone countries carried out neoconservative experiments,and financial liberalization was one part of the reform programs.It included marketization of the interest rate,elimination of the target loans and reduction of the reserves.,5,70年代的这一次金融自由化后因爆发了不同程度的银行危机和80年代的债务危机而停止。,This episode of liberalization ended in repeated banking crises and debt crises.,6,90年代的拉美金融自由化Latin American financial liberalization in the 1990s,与70年代相比,90年代的金融自由化具有以下两个特点(1)实施金融自由化的国家不再限于少数,而是遍布整个拉美大陆。,Compared with the 1970s,financial liberalization in the 1990s acquired new features:(1)Almost all the countries in the region carried out financial liberalization.,7,(2)金融自由化的范围更广。除70年代实施的放松利率管制、取消定向贷款和降低银行储备金比率等措施以外,90年代的金融自由化还包括以下内容:,对国有银行实施私有化、积极引进外国银行的参与、加强中央银行的独立性。,(2)In addition to loosening control on interest rate setting,eliminating target loan and reducing bank reserves,Latin American countries also privatized state-owned banks,encouraged the participation of the foreign banks and strengthened central bank independence.,8,何谓成功的金融自由化?,What is a successful program of financial liberalization,3个有利于:,有利于保持金融稳定,有利于促进经济增长,有利于低收入家庭更容易地获得资金,According to B.Stallings,a successful program of financial liberalization tends to(1)promote financial stability;(2)speed up economic growth;and 3)facilitate the low-income families to gain easier access to credit.,9,90年代拉美金融自由化的成效 What has been achieved?,它在一定程度上缓解了“金融压抑”,使金融机构的业务范围不断扩大,金融部门在国民经济中的地位进一步上升,金融机构为投资项目融资的能力也有相应的提高。,Financial repression has been greatly reduced;the position of the financial sector in the economy has been raised;and the capacity of the financial sector to finance investment projects has been strengthened.,10,金融自由化,使,使拉美国家,的,的银行业吸,引,引了大量外,资,资。,私人资本在,银,银行部门中,的,的作用越来,越,越重要。,金融部门运,转,转的规则发,生,生了变化。,Moreforeign capitalhasbeenattractedto the financial sector;,Private capitalhasbeenplaying amoreimportantrole;,Rulesgoverningthefunctioning ofthe financial sectorhavebeenchanged so that itcan now operatein amoreliberal environment.,11,金融自由化,与,与金融危机,的,的关系,保罗克鲁,格,格曼:让我,们,们玩这样一,种,种文字游戏,:,:一个人说,出,出一个词或,短,短语,另一,个,个人把他听,到,到后头脑中,的,的第一个反,应,应回答出来,。,。,PaulKrugman said,“Imagine playing word association-in whichone personsaysa word orphrase,and the other issupposedto reply with the first thingthatpopsintohis mind-withan experiencedinternationalbanker,financeofficial,or economist.,12,如果你对一,个,个见多识广,的,的国际银行,家,家、金融官,员,员或经济学,家,家说“金融,危,危机”,他,肯,肯定会回答,:,:“拉美”,。,。,Untilveryrecently,andperhaps even now,ifyousaidfinancialcrisis,he would surelyreply Latin America.,13,1994年,墨,墨西哥金融,危,危机;,1999年,巴,巴西金融危,机,机;,2001年,阿,阿根廷金融,危,危机。,Mexicos crisisin 1994;,Brazils crisisin 1999;,Argentinas crisis in 2001.,14,三次危机的,内,内部因素,Internal Factors ofthe threeCrises,汇 率,政 策,Exch.Pol,债 务,负 担,Debt,金 融,自由化,Fin.Lib.,财 政,赤 字,Fis.Def.,经常项,目赤字,Cur.Acc,政 治,因 素,Politics,高利率,政策,High Int.,墨西哥,Mxo,巴西,Brz,阿根廷,Arg,15,对中国的启,示,示 ImplicationsforChina,“把汇率搞,正,正确”。,确保债务的,“,“可持续性,”,”。,提高财政部,门,门的稳健度,。,。,要重视经常,项,项目赤字。,“Getthe exchange rate right.”,To maintain sustainability ofthe foreign debt.,To enhancefiscal soundness.,To keep the currentaccount deficitat amanageable level.,16,对于发展中,国,国家来说,,金,金融自由化,、,、资本项目,开,开放是必要,的,的,但必须,采,采取循序渐,进,进的步骤,,不,不能急于求,成,成。,Financialliberalizationand capital accountopening are necessary,but they should be carriedout in a gradual way.,17,周小川 Zhou Xiaochuan(1999),“中国改革,的,的一个特点,是,是采用渐进,改,改革,而没,有,有像原苏联,和,和一部分东,欧,欧国家那样,采,采取休克疗,法,法。但,是,是,在此我,想,想表明的是,,,,实际上,,没,没有任何一,种,种做法是十,全,全十美的。,各,各种做法均,有,有其利弊。,China,s reformfollows apathof gradualism,not the shock therapy adoptedby the former SovietrepublicsandEastEurope.As a matterof fact,however,no reform program isflawless.,18,因此,在我,们,们大张旗鼓,地,地阐明渐进,式,式改革的好,处,处时,也需,要,要认识,到渐进式改,革,革的成本和,缺,缺点。在改,革,革的一定阶,段,段、征途中,会,会有一个或,数,数个陷阱。,We need tore
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