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Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,*,*,20030520,DL-ZXE332(ITES,Board Pres.)(JS)-7,*,Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,Unit of measure,*,Footnote,Source:Source,ITES/BPO Opportunity to move up the value chain?,January 13,2004,This report is solely for the use of client personnel.No part of it may be circulated,quoted,or reproduced for distribution outside the client organization without prior written approval from McKinsey it is not a complete record of the discussion.,Presentation at iTECH 2004,Source:Gartner;Dataquest;Aberdeen group;McKinsey analysis,Supply-side enablers,Telecom costs down by 90%in the last 3 years;world-class reliability,Over 2.5 million low-cost talented workers in countries such as India and Philippines,Emergence of a credible vendor community,0.0,0.2,0.4,0.6,0.8,1.0,1.2,1.4,1.6,1.8,2.0,1992,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,E,BPO total revenues-India example*,$billion,CONTEXT:BUSINESS PROCESS OFFSHORING HAS EXPLODED IN THE LAST FEW YEARS,Encouraging track record of early movers,Demanding U.S market environment,Successful track record of I/T offshoring,Demand side forces,2,030918 Offshoring workshop v2,“,Tech jobs leave U.S.for India,Russia.Whos to blame?”,July 2003,“,Is your job next?”,February 2003,BUT HAS ALSO CREATED GREAT ANXIETY IN PRIMARY MARKETS,“,American legislators are accusing India of stealing jobs”,June 2003,“,Americas pain,Indias gain”,January 2003,“3.3,million U.S.service jobs to go offshore by 2015”,November 2002,“,Can America Lose These Jobs and Still Prosper?”,July 2003,U.S.House Sub-business Committee,3,IN THIS CONTEXT,SEVERAL DOUBTS HAVE ARISEN ABOUT THE FUNDAMENTAL LONGEVITY AND EVOLUTION OF BPO AS AN INDUSTRY,Will the BPO phenomenon plateau out in the next few years?,Even if it survives,moving up the value chain will be difficult and will take several years?,Value chain moves will be the domain of captives because the trust required is too high?,4,20030520,DL-ZXE332(ITES,Board Pres.)(JS)-7,IN THIS CONTEXT,SEVERAL DOUBTS HAVE ARISEN ABOUT THE FUNDAMENTAL LONGEVITY AND EVOLUTION OF BPO AS AN INDUSTRY,Will the BPO phenomenon plateau out in the next few years?,Even if it survives,moving up the value chain will be difficult and will take several years?,Value chain moves will be the domain of captives because the trust required is too high?,5,20030520,DL-ZXE332(ITES,Board Pres.)(JS)-7,0.33,*,Estimate based on historical U.S.reemployment trends,Source:McKinsey Global Institute,1.,OFFSHORING ACTUALLY GENERATES GREATER VALUE FOR THE GLOBAL ECONOMY,Taxes($0.04),Revenues($0.20),Local suppliers($0.09),.,deliversvalue to India.,0.67,Cost savings($0.58),Goods sold($0.05),Profits from Indian ventures($0.04),.,brings returnsto U.S.,1.45-1.47,.,and makes the global pie that much bigger,0.45-0.47,.,creates new value from re-employing U.S.labor*.,$1,previouslyspent in U.S.,now offshored to India.,$1.00,6,0.03,0.33,0.10,0.09,0.10,0.01,Profits retained in India,INDIA CAPTURES 33 CENTS FROM EACH DOLLAR OF SPEND OFFSHORED BY THE U.S.,Value accrued from$1 of U.S.spend offshored,1,Dollars;2002,Central govern-ment,3,State govern-ment,4,Total value accrued to India,Labor,Suppliers,2,Offshoring sector,1,Estimated using the India offshored services industry case,2Includes revenue accrued to the supplier industries less sales taxes,income taxes to employees and corporate taxes,3Includes income tax from labor employed in the offshored services sector and the supplier industries and corporate taxon the supplier industries,4 Includes sales tax on the supplier industries and revenue from the sale of power to offshored service providers,Source:McKinsey Global Institute,7,JOBS OFFSHORED WILL BE A SMALL FRACTION OF THE SHORTAGE IN ELIGIBLE WORKERS,Number of workers,Millions,2000-2015,Source:U.S.Census;McKinsey Global Institute,Jobs projected to go offshore,Decline in working population due to aging,8,JOBS OFFSHORED ARE A FRACTION OF ALL MASS LAYOFFS,1,Bureau of labor statistics defines mass layoffs as job loss actions leading to the displacement of 50 or more workers by a given establishment during a 5-week period,2Average 1996-99,3Average 1989-2000,4Average 2003-13,Source:NBER;BLS;Kletzer;McKinsey Global Institute,Average annual mass layoffs,1,Millions,All mass layoffs,2,Offshoring projection,4,Trade-related layoffs,3,9,Economic value of off-shoring real,Off-shoring creates 40-50%greater value for the global economy,India captures 33%of every off-shored dollar while the US retains 67%and the incremental 40-50%value creation,Off-shored jobs small fraction of expected retirements/lay-offs,THEREFORE,BUSINESS LOGIC WOULD INDICATE THAT BPO HERE TO STAY BUT WILL REQUIRE HANDLING CUSTOMER CONCERNS WITH COMPASSION,Negative emotional impact at the customer equally real,Real people and communities are effected,Re-training takes t
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