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,单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,*,Chapter 5,International Exchange System,第五章 国际汇率制度,第一节 固定汇率制Fixed Rate System,The world economy operated under a system of,fixed dollar exchange rates,between the end of World War II and 1973, with central banks routinely trading foreign exchange to hold their exchange rates at internationally agreed levels.,Two kinds of the fixed exchange rates,金本位制度下的固定汇率制,纸币流通制度下的固定汇率制,Gold Standard:规定货币单位的含金量。,含金量的的对比决定汇率,。,金币可以,自由,铸造；,自由,兑换；,自由,输出入。,The Gold Standard,An international gold standard,avoids the asymmetry inherent in a reserve currency standard,by avoiding the “,N,th currency” problem. Under a gold standard, each country,fixes the price of its currency in terms of gold,by standing ready to trade domestic currency for gold whenever necessary to defend the official price.,Advantage of the Gold Standard,Because there are,N,currency and,N,prices of gold in terms of those currencies,no single country occupies a privileged position within the system,: each is responsible for pegging its currencys price in terms of the official international reserve asset, gold. Gold standard rules also require each country to allow,unhindered imports and exports of gold,across its borders.,Benefits and drawbacks of the Gold Standard,Benefits:,Symmetry,Price level and value of national money are more stable and predictable,Enhance international transactions,Drawbacks:,Constraints on the use of monetary policy to fight unemployment.,Tying currency values to gold ensures a stable overall price level only if the relative price of gold is stable.gold discovery in South America,An international payments system based on gold is problematic because central banks cannot increase their holdings of international reserves as their economies grow unless there are continual new gold discoveries.,The gold standard gives gold-producing countries power to influence the world economy,The Gold Exchange Standard,Halfway between the gold standard and a pure reserve currency standard is the,gold exchange standard,. Central banks reserves consist of gold and currencies whose prices in terms of gold are fixed, and each central bank fixes its exchange rate to a currency with a fixed gold price.,More,flexibility,in the growth of international reserves.,Fixed Exchange Rates under currency-circulation system,纸币流通下的,布雷顿森林体系,。,1944,Bretton Woods agreement,英国向美国妥协的结果“,双挂钩,”体系。,金块,美元dollar,各国货币,日元,里拉,1盎司=35美元,1%幅度波动,How to sustain the Fixed Rate,维持固定汇率制的手段：,动用黄金储备（储备项目）,利用贴现政策（资本项目）,施行外汇管制（或签订互换货币协定）,实行法定贬值（,last resort,）,Dilemma of US dollar,美国逆差,收支平衡,向他国提供美元,保持对美元信心,Process ofdollar devaluation,美元贬值,194419711973,1盎司值美,元,元,35,38,42.22,脱钩浮动,AbandonedGoldExchange Standard,The post-WorldWar II reservecurrency systemcenteredon the dollar was, in fact, originally set upas agoldexchangestandard.Whileforeign central banks did thejobof peggingexchangerates, theU.S.Federal Reserve wasresponsible for holdingthe dollarprice ofgoldat $35 anounce. Bythe mid-1960s,the systemoperatedin practice more like a pure reserve currencysystem than agoldstandard.PresidentNixonunilaterally,severed the dollarslinkto gold in August 1971, shortlybefore thesystem offixed dollar exchange rates was abandoned.,Floating Exchange Rate System,第二节,浮,浮动汇率,制,制度,特征,：,不,规定本国货,币,币与外币,黄金平价,不,规定汇率波,动,动的,上下限,中央银行,无,义务维持汇,率,率波动界限,义务,外汇,市场,供求决定汇,率,率,国际收支,变化是影响,汇,汇率的主要,因,因素,Typesof floating exchange rates,政府有否干,预,预(dirty hand),自由浮动Free Float/CleanFloat,管理浮动Managed Float/Dirty Float,是否与其他,货,货币发生联,系,系(Connection),单独浮动SingleFloat 英镑，,美,美元，日元,等,等,27,个国家。,钉住浮动PeggedFloat,(1)钉住,某,某一种货币,：,：过去的殖,民,民地与宗主,国,国之间关系(2)钉住,一,一揽子货币,：,：SDR;ECU;,取,取决于主要,贸,贸易伙伴国,。,。,联合浮动JointFloat,欧,欧共体。,Advantageand drawback offloatingrate,浮动汇率制,度,度的有利因,素,素：,可以防止大,量,量游资对硬,货,货币的冲击,。,。,可以防止外,汇,汇和黄金储,备,备的流失。,各国有较大,的,的自由来推,行,行本国政策,。,。,总而言之，,没有义务,来维护固定,汇,汇率。,Drawbacksof floating exchangerate,浮动汇率的,三,三方面弊端,：,：,增加进出口,贸,贸易结算成,本,本和风险，,不,不利于国际,贸,贸易的发展,。,。,助长国际金,融,融市场上的,投,投机活动。,各国采取以,邻,邻为壑政策,，,，竞争性货,币,币贬值。Beggar-thy-neighbor policy.,Krugman &Obstfeld (1),Discipline,. Centralbanksfreed from theobligation tofix theirexchange ratesmightembark oninflationary policies.,Destabilizingspeculationandmoneymarketdisturbances,. Speculation on changesin exchange rates could lead to instability in foreignexchange markets.,Injury tointernational tradeand investment.,Floating rateswouldmakerelativeinternational pricesmoreunpredictable.,Krugman &Obstfeld (2),4.,Uncoordinated economic policies,. Thedoorwould beopened tocompetitive currencypracticesharmful to thewould economy.,5.,The illusion ofgreater autonomy,. Floatingexchangerateswould notreally give countries more policyautonomy.Changes inexchangerateswould have such pervasive macroeconomiceffects that central banks would feel compelled to intervene heavilyin foreignexchangemarkets even withouta formalcommitmentto peg.,Selectionof Fixed &FloatingExchange Rates,固定汇率制,和,和浮动汇率,制,制的选择取,决,决于一国的,国,国情：,大国还是小,国,国；,发展中国家,还,还是发达国,家,家；,此事古难全,Exchange Rate SysteminHongKong,第三节,联,联系汇率,制,制度（演变,史,史）,1935美元,英镑区成员，港币与英镑之间是固定汇率,1英镑=16港元,1972,英镑自由浮动，港币与美元建立固定联系,1美元=5.65港元,1973,美元自由浮动，港币也自由浮动,不断贬值过程,1983.10,港币直接与美元挂钩，,联系汇率制度,开始,1美元=7.8港元,Stabilization Policies,香港联系汇,率,率制度的主,要,要内容:,（教材,155,页）,从1983,年,年10月17日起，发,钞,钞银行增发,的,的港元现钞,，,，一律以1,美,美元=7.8港元的比,价,价，事先向,外,外汇基金交,纳,纳美元。保,证,证了,港币的发行,有,有美元的准,备,备,。1994,年,年进一步规,定,定上述固定,汇,汇率只使用,于,于发钞银行,与,与外汇基金,之,之间。其他,交,交易则全部,按,按照市场汇,率,率来进行。,Adaptability and Vitality,HongKong:small open economy,资源贫乏，,生,生产资料和,生,生活必需品,依,依赖进口。,香,香港,对外贸易,是本地,GDP 的2.5倍。,外资,在香港经济,中,中占绝对比,重,重。外资占,股,股票市场交,易,易额的三分,之,之一。,WeatheringtheStorms,1987年,全,全球股灾；1990年,海,海湾战争；1991年,欧,欧洲汇率机,制,制解体；1997-1998年亚,洲,洲金融危机,。,。,Evolutionof Exchange System of RMBin China,第一时期：国民经济恢复时期,1949,$1=,5,241.34,旧币,自力更生，奖出限入，照顾侨汇。,1950,$1=,33,806.11旧,朝鲜战争，奖励出口，兼顾进口。,1951,$1=,23,473.33旧,人民币内部钉住美元,1952,$1=, 26,170.00,旧,奖励出口，兼顾进口,1953,对外停止公布人民币汇率,第二时期： 固定汇率制下的人民币汇率,1954,对外停止公布人民币汇率;人民币作为内部结算用。,1955,$1=,2.46,新币换旧币，新,1=,旧,10,000,实行固定汇率制。,1956,1970,$1=,2.46,大跃进，文革，进出口贸易国家垄断。汇率为企业折算用,1971,$1=,2.26,美元贬值7.89%,第三时期：浮动汇率制下的人民币汇率,1972,$1=,2.23,1973,$1=,1.95,美元为中心固定汇率制崩溃。,1974,$1=, 1.94,1975,$1=, 1.85,1976,$1=, 1.94 (2.38),国外开始对中国外汇黑市进行统计,1977,$1=, 1.85 (2.26),1978,$1=, 1.68 (2.27),1979,$1=, 1.55 (2.37),内部结算价开始,$1=, 2.53,第四时期： 双重汇率制的过渡时期,1980,$1=, 1.49 (1.93),外汇兑换券使用,1981,$1=, 1.70 (2.04),1982,$1=, 1.89 (2.25),外贸体制改革,1983,$1=, 1.97 (2.39),1984,$1=, 2.32 (2.68),第五时期： 人民币大幅度下调,1985,$1=, 2.93 (3.04),上海外汇调剂市场成立,1986,$1=, 3.45 (4.02),1987,$1=, 3.72 (4.40),1988,$1=, 3.72 (6.83),全国外贸承包责任制,1989,$1=, 3.76 (7.89),天安门事件，,1990,$1=, 4.78 (5.83),人民币贬值9.57%,1991,$1=, 5.32 (6.78),允许个人外汇存取买卖,1992,$1=, 5.51 (8.62),全国外汇调剂中心成立连网42个地方外汇调剂市场,1993,$1=, 5.76 (9.65),外汇稳定基金建立,第六时期： 人民币汇率小幅度升值,1994,$1=, 8.61 (8.71),统一汇率，结束复汇率制,1995,$1=, 8.35 (8.38),取消外汇兑换券,1996,$1=, 8.31 (8.34),加入IMF第8成员国，个人居民可经营外汇,1997,$1=, 8.31,亚洲金融危机爆发,Features of RMBrate-,Exchange systemin China,现行人民币,制,制度的特点,：,：,单一的,管理浮动汇,率,率,制度 (,1994,并轨后),直接标价法,买卖价，中,间,间价，,有汇价，钞,价,价两种,有远期人民,币,币的买卖（,1971年,开,开始15种,货,货币买卖远,期,期人民币，,中,中国没有规,定,定远期汇率,，,，远期汇率=即期汇率+远期费）,汇率的挂牌,谢谢观看,/,欢迎下载,BY FAITH IMEANA VISIONOF GOOD ONE CHERISHES ANDTHEENTHUSIASMTHATPUSHES ONE TOSEEKITS FULFILLMENTREGARDLESS OFOBSTACLES.BY FAITHI BYFAITH,
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