移动通信行业发展趋势分析(英文版)

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Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,*,PricewaterhouseCoopers,An Integrated Approach toBilling,CallCenter andCustomerRelationship Management,A Discussion Document,August 31,2000,1,Agenda,Context,Key issuesforChinaMobile,The Communications EnterpriseSolution Architecture,(,CESA),Customer Relationship Management(CRM),AboutPricewaterhouseCoopers,2,Context,ChinaMobilefacinggrowingcompetitionfrombothUnicomandChinaTelecom,CMCC,sbillingandITinfrastructureareinadequatetosustaincompetitiveadvantage,LargescaleandrapidITinfrastructuredevelopmentisrequired,CMCChasrequestedPricewaterhouseCoopersassistanceinbuildingaworldclassITinfrastructure,Wearetheundisputedleadersinthisareaworldwide,andhaveuniquedeliverycapabilitiesinChina,3,KeyIssuesforChinaMobile,KeyTrendsinMobileTelecoms,4,AverageRevenuePerSubscriberisdeclining.,keepingEBITDAmarginsflat,USA Cellular EBITDA%,1998-2002,Source:DLJ,Note:This data represents results for a“typical”cellular company,Thevalueofmobilevoiceserviceshaspeaked.MuchofthevaluegrowthintheUSisnowsubstitutive,Mobilevoiceismaturing,ARPU,Penetration,*,Soneraisre-brandedTelecomFinlandMobile,5,Itisthoughtthatdataserviceswillultimatelyfillthis,“,“valuegap”,withmobiledevicesbecomingtheECommerce,“,“toolofchoice,”,”formostconsumers,IntheUS,mobilevaluationsgenerallyexceedcashgenerationbyasignificantmargin,Voice,Services,Other,70%,100%,%,Mobile,Value,FMC,Substitution,Data/Broadband,6,Investorsbelievethattheintroductionofmobiledatatechnologieswillcreatesignificantnewopportunities.,Asia-Japan,HongKong,Taiwan,andSingapore-portendtobeleadersintheintroductionofmobiledataapplications,Data,9.6-14.5kbps,SMS,HSCSD,GPRS,115.2kbps,EDGE,WCDMA,384kbps-2,Mbps,Data,9.6,SMS,CDPD,19.2kbps,CDPD,GPRS,57.6-115.2,kbps,136+,115.2-384,kbps,WCDMA,384kbps-3,Mbps,InformationBroadcast:Weather;banking;news;stocks,Filetransfer;download,Infoaccess;Intranet,access;realtime apps;,interactivesessions,1998,1999-2000,2000-01,2001-02,Wirelessmultimedia,voice,video,multimedia applications,M-commerce,2002+,GSM,TDMA,PDC,Data,28.8 kbps,SMS,WCDMA,384kbps-3,Mbps,7,ProjectionsofWAP,Cellular Subs,andInternetSubs Growth,-,200,000,000,400,000,000,600,000,000,800,000,000,1,000,000,000,1,200,000,000,1,400,000,000,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,Projected,CellularSubscribers,Projected PCsConnected totheInternet,(Dataquest 10/98),Projected WAP Handsets,Manybelievethat Internet access will moveto the“handset”,8,Mobile datawillenablemyriad new service opportunities,Consumer,Business,Other,InformationServices,Entertainment,Games,Banking,E-Commerce,E-mail,Video telephony,Personalnavigation,Internetaccess,Databasesearch,Corporate databases,Email,Filetransfer,Intranetaccess,Internetaccess,Vehiclenavigation,Video telephony,Specialist products,:,Telemetry,Machinemonitoring,Navigation&logistics products,Alternativeproducts,:,Returnchannelsforbroadcasttechnologies,Wirelesshomes,9,Mobiledatawillcreateanewvaluechainformobileoperators,Thecombinationofmultipleservicesandsegmentswillleadtothedevelopmentofacomplexnewvaluechainthatcombinescontent,transportandsolutions,Activities,Customer,TraditionalMobileValueChain,Network,Management,Service,Provision,Networkplanning,Networkconstruction,Networkoperation,Salesandmarketing,Billing,Customercare,Activities,Customer,Content,Production,distributionandaggregationofcontent,Editors,Magazines,On-Line,andPortals,Coreandaccesstransmissionofdata,Internetbackboneproviders,Accessproviders(e.g.GSMandUMTS),Transport,Solutions,Hardwareandsoftwaresolutions enabling theproductstobeused,Smartphones,PDAsandInternetbrowsers;CorporateIntranetsoftware,Examples,FutureMobile Value Chain,10,transportand accesswill become,“,“low value”commodities.,Inthe,consumermarket,as thenetwork becomesunbundled,valuecreationwill migratetoeither contentorsolutions,Consumers,CONTENT,SERVICE,CREATION,INTEGRATION,MOBILE,TERMINALS,TRANSPORT,ValueAddedService,Provider,ACCESS,Transport,Solutions,Content,Operator,Media,Portals,owninganetwork willnot be essentialforparticipationinthemobile consumer market.,11,In the,corporatemarket,mobile operators may lose directcustomer access,Solution providers are poisedto capturea majority ofthe value.,IT,FixedTelecoms,Mobile Telecoms,Corporate,Today,Corporate,Mobile,Telecoms,Corporate,IT,Solution Providers,Fixed,Telecoms,The Future,12,MNC,LargeNational,SME,Personal,Household,Content,Transport,Solutions,Mostexisting mobileoperators are not well-positioned except inthetraditionalpersonal segment,Poorly Positioned,Moderately Positioned,Well-Positioned,Customer,Segments,13,Personal,Corporate,GSM,(TDMA/CDMA),GSM,GPRS,DECT,Other,UMTS,EDGE,GMPCS,CountryX,CountryY,Thismaylead toa“mobile network break-up”,This,“,“breakup”is consistent with whathashappenedinfixed line services.,14,KeyNear-Term Success Factors,KeyIssues for ChinaMobile,15,Identify,develop,and retain targetcustomers through on-goingsegmentationandanalysis,Secure existingrevenuesthroughrevenueintegrity measures
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