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Click to edit Master title style,*,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,GOM7,Supply Chain Mgmt1,GOM7,供应链管理,1,A Can of Coke,Smelting,Rolling,Can Making,Label,Filling,Distribution,Retailing,There are more opportunities in,better management of global supply chains,than you think,一罐可乐,澳大利亚矾土矿,冶炼,辊压,制罐,贴标签,填装,分销,零售,一个英国家庭的冰箱,改进全球供应链管理的机会之多超乎想象,A Can of Coke,Smelting,Rolling,Can Making,Label,Filling,Distribution,Retailing,A British Household,Refrigerator,Time in the Pipeline,319,Days,3,Hours of “Actual Work”,一罐可乐,澳大利亚矾土矿,冶炼,辊压,制罐,贴标签,填装,分销,零售,一个英国家庭的冰箱,流程时间,319,天,“,实际工作”,3,小时,A Can of Coke,Why 319 days to do 3 hours of work?,Production is batched at every stage,Transport is batched at every stage,Product goes through an average of 14,storage lots and warehouses,Every step (plants, transports, warehouses, sales.),Is maximizing its own operational efficiency,Is this too much local optimization and not enough,global optimization?,一罐可乐,为什么,319,天做,3,个小时的工作？,每个阶段批量生产,每个阶段批量运输,每件产品平均经过,14,次存储和入库,每一步骤（工厂、运输、仓储、销售,）,都在最大限度地提高其运转效率,是不是局部最优化过多而全球最优化不足？,SC Responsiveness,Consumers,Making the supply chains more responsive,Is not easy,Multiple parties,Lagged & distorted information flows,Variability and unpredictability,Imbalance,Specially for supply chains across national boundaries,供应链的响应能力,客户,提高供应链的响应能力,不容易,多方面,信息流滞后、扭曲,可变性和不可预测性,失衡,特别是跨国供应链,SC Responsiveness,Consumers,What can we do?,Coordinate the,Supply Chain,Redesign the,Supply Chain,Manage the,Demand,Avoid the,“Bullwhip” Effect,供应链的响应能力,客户,怎么办？,协调供应链,重新设计供应链,需求管理,避免 “皮鞭” 效应,SC Responsiveness,The “Bull whip” Effect,Order variability tends to increase as we move up the supply chain,like the “bull whip”,CONSUMERS,The “Beer Game” example,供应链的响应能力,“,皮鞭” 效应,沿类似于皮鞭的供应链上移时，定单的可变性呈上升趋势,客户,“,啤酒游戏,”,示例,SC Responsiveness,Coordinate the supply chain,1. Share More Information,POS Data,Forecasts (share and do jointly),Schedules (share and do collaboratively),供应链的响应能力,协调供应链,1.,增加共享信息,供应产品（,POS,） 数据,预测（共同分享与共同进行）,供应链计划（共同分享与协作进行）,SC Responsiveness,Coordinate the supply chain,2. Change Controls in the Channel,Vendor Managed Inventory,Consignment Stocks,“,Sell-through”,Supplier,Supplier,Supplier,供应链的响应能力,协调供应链,2.,改变渠道控制,卖方管理的存货,代销存货,“零售量”,供应商,供应商,供应商,Consumers,Intra-Operation Initiative,3.,Create More Operational Flexibility,Invest in postponement,Increase modularity,Share platforms / Common components,Reduce changeover costs (and batch sizes),Reduce weight of capacity utilization as KPI,供应链的响应能力,客户,运营内部举措,3.,创造更多的运营灵活性,延期方面的投资,增加模化程度,共享平台,/,共用元件,减少转换成本（和批量大小）,降低作为关键绩效指标（,KPI,）设备利用 率的重要性,Consumers,What can we do?,Redesign the,Supply Chain,Manage the,Demand,Fit the supply chain to,Products “clock speed”,供应链的响应能力,客户,怎么办？,协调供应链,减少供应链,需求管理,使供应链与产品的 “时钟速率”相适应,The root cause of the problems,plaguing many supply chains,is a mismatch between,the type of product and,the type of supply chain,SC Responsiveness,供应链的响应能力,造成问题困扰许多供应链的根本原因,在于产品类型和供应链类型不相匹配,SC Responsiveness,“,Functional” vs. “Innovative” products,Different “Clock Speeds”,“,Functional”“Innovative”,GasolinePrinters,PencilsDigital cameras,CerealsFashion apparel,Fit the Supply Chain to Products “Clockspeed”,Match,Mismatch,Mismatch,Match,Functional Products Innovative Products,Physically Efficient,Supply Chain,Market Responsive,Supply Chain,供应链的响应能力,“功能” 产品对 “创新” 产品的,不同 “时钟速率”,“功能,”,产品“创新” 产品,汽油,打印机,铅笔,数码照相机,谷物,时装服饰,使供应链与产品的 “时钟速率,”,相适应,匹配,不匹配,不匹配,匹配,功能产品 创新产品,物理效率高的,供应链,市场响应型的,供应链,SC Responsiveness,Functional,(Predictable Demand),Innovative,(Unpredictable Demand),Aspects of Demand,Product life cycle,More than 2 years,3,months to 1 year,Contribution margin*,5%,to 20%,20%,to 60%,Product variety,Low (10 to 20 variants per category),High (often millions of variants per category),Average margin of error in the forecast at the time production is committed,10%,40%,to 100%,Average stockout rate,1%,to 2%,10%,to 40%,Average forced end of season markdown as percentage of full price,0%,10%,to 25%,Lead time required for made-to-order products,6,months to 1 year,1,day to 2 weeks,*,The contribution margin equals price minus variable cost divided by price and is expressed as a percentage,供应链的反应能力,功能型,(,可预测需求,),创新型,(,需求不可预测,),各需求方面,产品寿命周期,2,年以上,3,个月到,1,年,边际收益*,5%,至,20%,20%,至,60%,产品多样性,低,(,每一类别,10,至,20,种,),高,(,往往每一类别数百万种,),委托产品时预报误差平均幅度,10%,40%,至,100%,平均脱销率,1%,至,2%,10%,至,40%,被迫终止季节性降价平均占,全价百分比,0%,10%,至,25%,按单产品所需的前导时间,6,个月至,1,年,1,日至,2,周,*边际收益等于价格减去各项成本，再除以价格，用百分率表示。,SC Responsiveness,Physically Efficient Process,Market-Responsive Process,Primary purpose,Supply predictable demand efficiently at the lowest possible cost,Respond quickly to unpredictable demand in order to minimize stockouts, forced markdowns, and obsolete inventory,Manufacturing focus,Maintain high average utilization rate,Deploy excess buffer capacity,Inventory strategy,Generate high turns and minimize inventory throughout the chain,deploy significant buffer stocks of parts or finished goods,Lead time focus,Shorten lead time as long as it doesnt increase cost,Invest aggressively in ways to reduce lead time,Approach to choosing suppliers,Select primarily for cost and quality,Select primarily for speed, flexibility, and quality,Product-design strategy,Maximize performance and minimize cost,Use modular design in order to postpone product differentiation for as long as possible,供应链的响应能力,物理效率过程,市场响应过程,基本目的,以最低成本有效供应可预测需求,对不可预测的需求快速响应，以便最大限度地减少库存匮乏、被迫降价和过时存货,制造重心,保持高度的平均利用率,配置超额缓冲能力,库存战略,生成高周转率，实现整个供应链库存最小化,配置大量部件及成品缓冲库存,前导时间焦点,在不增加成本的前提下尽量缩短前导时间,在缩短前导时间的途径上进取性投资,选择供应商的方法,以成本和质量为首选,以速度、灵活性和质量为首选,产品设计战略,绩效最大化，成本最小化,采用模块设计，尽可能推迟产品异质化,SC Responsiveness,Get out of the upper right hand cell,Toothpaste is a product category in which a move to the leftfrom innovative to functionalmakes sense.,Yet because the industry has largely retained its emphasis on a physically efficient supply chain, most computer companies find themselves firmly positioned in the upper right-hand cell.,A lean, efficient distribution channel is exactly right for functional cars but totally inappropriate for innovative cars, which require inventory buffers to absorb uncertainty in demand.,供应链的响应能力,脱离右侧单元上游,牙膏是一个产品类别，在这个类别中向左侧移动,即从创新型移向功能型,是合理的。,但是，由于该产业大都保持以物理效率供应链为重点，多数计算机公司发现自己牢牢地处于右侧单元上游的位置。,精益、高效的分销渠道对功能型轿车来说完全正确，但是对创新型轿车来说则根本不适用，因其需要库存缓冲来吸收需求中的不确定性。,SC Responsiveness,Responsive supply of innovative products,The first step is simply to,accept,that uncertainty is inherent in innovative products,Once a company has accepted the uncertainty of demand, it can employ three coordinated strategies to manage that uncertainty:,It can continue to strive to,reduce,uncertaintyfor example, by finding sources of new data that can serve as leading indicators or by having different products share common components as much as possible so that the demand for components becomes more predictable.,供应链的响应能力,创新产品的反应性供应,第一步只不过是,接受,这一事实：不确定性是创新产品所固有的。,一旦一个公司承认了需求的不确定性，它就可以运用三种相互协调的策略对这种不确定性予以管理：,它可以继续致力于,降低,不确定性,譬如通过找到可以充当前导指标的新数据来源；或者通过让不同产品共享尽可能多的共用元件，以提高元件需求的可预测性。,SC Responsiveness,It can,avoid,uncertainty by cutting lead times and increasing the supply chains flexibility so that it can produce to order or at least manufacture the product at a time closer to when demand materializes and can be accurately forecast.,Once uncertainty has been reduced or avoided as much as possible, it can,hedge,against,the remaining residual uncertainty with buffers of inventory or excess capacity,New movement:,mass customization,(building the ability to customize a large volume of products and deliver them at close to mass-production prices,Sport Obermeyers approach, which has been called,accurate response, has,cut the cost of both overproduction and underproduction in halfenough to increase profits by 60%.,供应链的响应能力,它可以通过缩短前导时间和增加供应链的灵活性来避免不确定性，这样，它就可以按订单生产，或者至少可以在临近需求实现并可进行准确预报的时间点上制造产品。,一旦不确定性得到尽可能的减少或避免，它就可以通过利用库存缓冲力或超剩余产能来防范残余的不确定性。,新发展：大量定制化（培养大量产品的定制化能力，并以接近批量生产的价格发货）,奥伯迈耶体育用品公司采用的方法，即所谓精确响应，将生产过剩和生产不足的成本都降低了一半,足以将利润提高,60%,。,The intangible costs of coordination include the cost of inventory meant to ensure that products are available.,Reason 1: managers typically place orders with their own suppliers before they receive their “customers” orders, so they must forecastor guesshow much demand there will be for which of their large variety of items. Sport Obermeyer places its orders in November, but only receives its first orders from retailers in March, all for a selling season that begins in September,Reason 2: The organizations in supply chain often do not share information about sales forecasts; instead, each level of the supply chain uses finished goods inventory to try to have on hand what is needed for their customers: each supplier makes extra orders “just-in-case,” swelling raw materials and finished goods inventories. Because they pass orders up and down the supply chain with lots of guessing, they (in addition) tend to exaggerate small changes seen at the consumer level-just as in a large game of telephone in which each person whispers the message they hear to the next person, but the message become highly garbled after a fairly short series of transmissions,Sketch of Sport Obermeyer Timing of Operations and Orders Throughout the Year,协调方面的无形成本包括为确保产品供应而付出的库存成本,理由,1:,经理人一般在他们收到“客户”订单之前向自己的供应商提出订单，因此，他们必须预测或者猜测其种类繁多的货品当中到底哪一种商品有需求、需求量有多大。奥伯迈耶体育用品公司在,11,月份提出订单，但直到次年,3,月才收到首批零售商的订单，全部是为,9,月份开始的销售季节订的货。,理由,2:,供应链上的各个单位一般不共享销售预测信息；而供应链的每一层都尽量利用成品库存保证现货以应客户所需：每个供应商都超额订购只为“以防万一”，使得原材料和成品存货猛增。由于在供应链中向上和向下传递订单时带有大量的猜测因素，他们（还）倾向于夸大发生在客户层的微小变化,就象一场大型的电话游戏，每个人都把自己听到的信息悄声传给下一个人，但是经过短短的一段传递之后，原来的信息已经面目全非了。,奥伯迈耶体育用品公司全年运作和订单时间选择略图,November,(previous year),November,March,August,September,February,Far East,Take orders,Make fabric,Assemble,clothes,Deliver to,Colorado,Colorado,Design clothes,Make forecasts of,sales and hot styles,Order textiles,and styles,Las Vegas show,Warehouse,Distribution to retailers,American,retailers,Make orders to,Sport O,Retail season,11,月（上一年）,11,月,3,月,8,月,9,月,2,月,远东,接订单,制作面料,制衣,发往科罗拉多,科罗拉多,设计服装,销量和热门款式预测,订购纺织品和款式,拉斯维加斯展销会,仓库,分销给零售商,美国零售商,向奥伯麦耶公司,提出订单,零售季节,SC Responsiveness,Consumers,What can we do?,Redesign the,Supply Chain,Manage the,Demand,供应链的响应能力,客户,怎么办？,协调供应链,重新设计供应链,需求管理,运用动态定价和高度协调的,市场推广手段,SC Responsiveness,Consumers,Summary,Coordinate the,Supply Chain,Redesign the,Supply Chain,Manage the,Demand,Avoid the,“Bullwhip” Effect,Watch the,“Clockspeed”,Manage the,“Yield”,供应链的响应能力,客户,小结,协调供应链,重新设计供应链,需求管理,避免 “皮鞭” 效应,观察 “时钟速率”,管理,“,产出”,SC Responsiveness,A Simple Rule,Regard Inventory Velocity as a,Key Performance Indicator (KPI),For everyone in the chain,供应链的响应能力,客户,一条简单规则：,将存货速度视为供应链上每个人的一项,关键绩效指标,(KPI),Global Issues,Duties and drawback,Taxes,Exchange rates,Transfer pricing,Local content and offset trade,Multiple transport modes,全球性的问题,关税和进口退税,税收,汇率,转让价,当地含量和补偿贸易,联运方式,Typical Types of Analyses,Manufacturing/Services Strategy,How many plants do I need?,Where should each plant be located?,What products should each make?,What process technologies should each have and how much of each process is needed?,What part of the world should each plant serve?,典型的分析类型,制造,/,服务策略,我需要多少工厂？,每个工厂设在哪儿？,每个厂应该制造什么产品？,每个厂应该有什么样的工艺技术，每个工艺需要多长时间？,每个工厂应该面向世界哪个地区服务？,Typical Types of Analyses,Supply Base Design / Vendor Consolidation,How do I simultaneously perform supplier selection for all the parts in the same commodity group?,How many suppliers is best and which suppliers should send which parts to which plants?,Outsourcing,What parts of my supply chain should I keep “in-house” and what parts to outsource?,What if a third party has a higher variable cost but a lower fixed cost than in-house production?,典型的分析类型,供应基地设计,/,卖方合并,我如何从同一商品组中同时选择所有零部件的供应商？,有多少最佳供应商，哪些供应商应把哪些零部件发给哪些工厂？,外购,我应该把我的供应链上的哪些部分留在“内部”，哪些部分进行外购？,如果有第三方的可变成本比内部生产高而固定成本较低，那该怎么办？,Typical Types of Analyses,New Product Pipeline Design,How should I fit the new product into my current supply chain?,Should I single or multiple source this product?,How much do my fixed costs affect this decision?,What is the cross-over point to open up a second and third source of supply?,Mergers and Acquisitions,Constantly redesigning the global flow,典型的分析类型,新产品的传输渠道设计,我该如何把这个新产品安放到现有的供应链上？,这个产品需要单渠道供应源还是多渠道供应源？,我的固定成本对这一决定的影响有多大？,开辟第二和第三供应源的交叉点是什么？,并购,不断地重新设计全球性的流动。,Supply Chain Disruptions,Analyze the effects of strategic disruptions,Unexpected loss/change of a supply chain partner,Ways to mitigate the threat,What are the key questions and issues,供应链中断,分析战略性中断的影响,供应链伙伴的意外损失,/,变更,减少威胁的办法,主要疑问和议题,LIST OF MAJOR COST CATEGORIES FOR A GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN,Manufacturing Costs:,Purchased Materials; Labor; Equipment Charge (fixed), Suppliers Margin,Movement Costs:,Transportation cost; Inventory in Pipeline and Safety Stock Cost; Duty,Incentive Costs/Subsidies:,Taxes and Subsidies,Intangible Costs:,(Conformance) Quality Costs; Product Adaptation or Performance Costs; Coordination Costs,Overhead Costs,Total Current Landed Costs,Sensitivity to Long-term Changes:,Productivity and Wage Changes; Exchange Rate Changes; Product Design; Core Competence,全球供应链的主要成本类别清单,制造成本：,采购原料；劳动力；设备费用（固定）；供应商的毛利,移动成本：,运输成本；经济订货批量和安全储备成本；关税,奖励成本,/,补贴：,税金和补贴,无形成本：,(,一致性) 质量成本；产品适应性或性能成本；协调成本,运营（间接）成本,现行离岸总成本,对长期变化的灵敏度：,生产率和工资变化；汇率变化；产品设计；核心竞争力,Comparison of International and Domestic Supply Chains for One Shoe Company,The PW. Minor company made prescription-ready comfort shoes for sick feet in sixty-six size-width variations. The costs were computed in 1985, when the “All In New York” shoes were sold at retail for $80 a pair. The foreign option shoes (slightly inferior materials and less hand-fitting) were to retail for $50, to be sold to dealers for $21, and to be covered by Medicare. Using the table to guide evaluation of the options is enlightening,* For all NY option, the $1.33 in inventory cost per shoe is included in manufacturing overhead,* The inventory figures for these options are calculated from a simple model assuming a 98% fill rate is required in New York.,一家鞋业公司的国际和国内供应链比较,PW. Minor,公司为脚病患者制造休闲处方鞋，计有,66,种宽度尺寸。成本计算于,1985,年，当时 “全部在纽约” 的零售鞋价为,80,美元,/,双。供国外选用的鞋（材质和手感稍差）的零售价为,50,美元,/,双，卖给经销商的价格是,21,美元,/,双，且属于 “老年保健医疗” （,Medicare,）范围。 以下表为指导对各种选择项进行评估很有启发性。,*,在 “全部在纽约”,一项中，每双鞋的制造费用含,1.33,美元的库存成本。,*,根据一个假定在纽约需要,98%,的供货率的简单模型对这些选项的存货量进行计算。,Order-to-delivery,Lead time,Manufacturing cost:,Duty plus transport,Inventory per pair of shoes:,Overhead:,Delivered cost:,Selling price to dealers:,Annual volume (pairs),All in New York,Uppers,Labor = $3.15,Materials = $7.8,Soles & assembly,Labor = $3.04,Materials = $2.56,Overhead,= $6.00*,(Incl. inventory),Finished goods,inventory,65,000 pairs,1-2 days,6000,dealers,$16.00,-,$1.33,$4.77,$23.93,$45.00,275,000,Upper in Taiwan,Uppers,Labor = $.13,Materials = $5.30,Transport (=.36),Inventory:,27,031* pairs,Soles & assembly,Labor = $2.99,Materials = $2.24,2 weeks,100,Dealers,$10.66,$3.6,$.93,$0,$11.95,$21.00,40,000,Made in Taiwan,Purchase shoes,= $10.00,Duty and transport,= $1.45,Inventory,243,279,1 week,100,Dealers,$10.00,$1.45,$17.41,$0,$28.86,$21.00,40,000,从订货到发货,前导时间,制造成本：,关税加运费：,每双鞋库存费：,运营（间接）成本：,交付成本：,对经销商的售价：,年交易量（双）：,全部在纽约,上游,劳动力,= $3.15,材料费,= $7.8,缝制装配,劳动力,= $3.04,材料费,= $2.56,间接成本,= $6.00*,(,含库存,),成品库存,65,000,双鞋,1-2,天,6000,个,经销商,$16.00,-,$1.33,$4.77,$23.93,$45.00,275,000,上游在台湾,上游,劳动力,= $.13,材料费,= $5.30,运输费,(=.36),库存：,27,031*,双,缝制装配,劳动力,= $2.99,材料费,= $2.24,2,周,100,个,经销商,$10.66,$3.6,$.93,$0,$11.95,$21.00,40,000,台湾制造,采购鞋,= $10.00,关税和运输,= $1.45,库存,243,279,双,1,周,100,个,经销商,$10.00,$1.45,$17.41,$0,$28.86,$21.00,40,000,演讲完毕，谢谢观看！,
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