第9章-失业和通货膨胀

单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,*,单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,*,第9章 失业和通货膨胀,本章要点,2.短期经济波动与周期性失业,3.货币供给与价格水平的关系,5.失业与通货膨胀的短期权衡,1.失业的类型,4.总供求与通货膨胀的关系,一、失业及其原因,1.失业的类型,摩擦性失业,（,Frictional U,）,：,从一个工作转换到另一个工作的过渡中产生的失业。,结构性失业,（,Structural U,）,：,由于劳动的供给结构与需求结构不相符而产生的失业,周期性失业（,Cyclical U,）：,由于经济波动而产生的失业。,2.自然失业率,（,natural rate of unemployment）,经济在正常情况下都存在的失业率，主要由摩擦性失业与结构性失业构成，具有长期性质。,长期失业率（自然失业率）是由劳动市场特点工作转换率、制度因素、信息状况等 决定的。,一、失业及其原因,The Unemployment Rate and the Natural Rate of Unemployment in the U.S.,3.失业的原因,工资粘性,(,wage stickiness),最低工资法,工会和集体谈判,效率工资,（,efficiency wage,）,企业为提高工人生产率而支付的高于市场均,衡水平的工资。,一、失业及其原因,3.失业的原因,工资粘性,(,wage stickiness),最低工资法,工会和集体谈判,效率工资,（,efficiency wage）,企业支付效率工资的原因:,影响劳动力队伍的质量,影响雇员的努力程度,降低雇员的辞职率,一、失业及其原因,3.失业的原因,寻找寻找工作与摩擦性失业,摩擦性失业的不可避免性,失业保险与摩擦性失业,公共政策与寻找工作,一、失业及其原因,结构性失业,经济波动造成的周期性失业,P,AS,AD,Y*,一、失业及其原因,3.失业的原因,4.失业的代价,减少产量,产量缺口与失业率变化之间存在一定的联系。,奥肯定律：失业率下降1，总是伴随着产量增长3，或产量缺口减少3,一、失业及其原因,对收入分配产生不良影响,新进入劳动市场的人可能面对极大困难。,技术水平低的人更容易受到失业的打击。,穷人通常只能依靠劳动谋生，但他们恰恰是最容易失业的人群。,一、失业及其原因,4.失业的代价,二、通货膨胀,1.通货膨胀的定义,价格水平在一段时间内持续上升,消费者物价指数、,GDP,平减指数,价格水平上涨的幅度,2.货币与通货膨胀,（1）物价水平与货币价值,从物品角度反映物价水平提高：购买同样数量需要更多货币。,从货币角度反映物价水平提高：货币价值下降。,二、通货膨胀,（2）货币价值与货币供求,货币需求量与价格水平的关系：价格水平上升，货币需求量增加。,货币供给量由中央银行控制，价格水平的调整保证货币供求量相等。,货币供给增加，货币价值下降，物价水平上升,二、通货膨胀,2.,货币与通货膨胀,Money Supply, Money Demand, and the Equilibrium Price Level,Copyright 2004 South-Western,Quantity of,Money,Value of,Money,1,/,P,Price,Level,P,Quantity fixed,by the Fed,Money supply,0,1,(Low),(High),(High),(Low),1,/,2,1,/,4,3,/,4,1,1.33,2,4,Equilibrium,value of,money,Equilibrium,price level,Money,demand,A,The Effects of Monetary Injection,Copyright 2004 South-Western,Quantity of,Money,Value of,Money,1,/,P,Price,Level,P,Money,demand,0,1,(Low),(High),(High),(Low),1,/,2,1,/,4,3,/,4,1,1.33,2,4,M,1,MS,1,M,2,MS,2,2. . . . decreases,the value of,mone,y . . .,3.,. . . and,increases,the price,level.,1. An increase,in the money,supply . . .,A,B,（,3,）费雪效应,在长期，货币供给量的增加只影响名义利率，不影响实际利率，即名义利率对通货膨胀率作一对一的调整。,名义利率（,i ）,和实际利率（,r）,ri,或,ir,2.货币与通货膨胀,二、通货膨胀,美国的名义利率与通货膨胀率,百分比,（,每年）,1960,1965,1970,1975,1980,1985,1990,1995,2000,0,3,6,9,12,15,通货,膨胀,名义,利率,Money and Prices During Four Hyperinflations,(a) Austria,(b) Hungary,Money supply,Price level,Index,(Jan. 1921 = 100),Index,(July 1921 = 100),Price level,100,000,10,000,1,000,100,1925,1924,1923,1922,1921,Money supply,100,000,10,000,1,000,100,1925,1924,1923,1922,1921,Money and Prices During Four Hyperinflations,(c) Germany,1,Index,(Jan. 1921 = 100),(d) Poland,100,000,000,000,000,1,000,000,10,000,000,000,1,000,000,000,000,100,000,000,10,000,100,Money,supply,Price level,1925,1924,1923,1922,1921,Price level,Money,supply,Index,(Jan. 1921 = 100),100,10,000,000,100,000,1,000,000,10,000,1,000,1925,1924,1923,1922,1921,Annual Inflation Rates in Zimbabwe: 1980-2008,Year,Rate,Year,Rate,Year,Rate,1980,7%,1990,17%,2000,55.22%,1981,14%,1991,48%,2001,112.10%,1982,15%,1992,40%,2002,198.93%,1983,19%,1993,20%,2003,598.75%,1984,10%,1994,25%,2004,132.75%,1985,10%,1995,28%,2005,585.84%,1986,15%,1996,16%,2006,1281%,1987,10%,1997,20%,2007,215000%,1988,8%,1998,48%,2008,237000000%,1989,14%,1999,56.90%,Source: International Monetary Fund,3.总供求与通货膨胀,（1）需求拉上的通货膨胀,由于总需求不断扩张导致的价格水平持续上涨,总需求扩张可能来自,IS,曲线方面，也可能来自,LM,曲线方面。,二、通货膨胀,需求拉上的通货膨胀,P,AD,1,AD,3,AD,2,AS,P,1,P,2,P,3,Y,（2）供给冲击的通货膨胀,成本推进通货膨胀,P,P,1,P,2,AD,SAS,2,SAS,1,Y,二、通货膨胀,3.总供求与通货膨胀,4.通货膨胀的社会成本,（1）,通货膨胀导致购买力下降吗？,长期内 ，通货膨胀并未降低人们的实际购买力。,二、通货膨胀,（2）预期到的通货膨胀的成本,皮鞋成本：,储户为了减少通货膨胀损失而频繁跑银行所花费的时间和资源,菜单成本：,厂商经常调整价格投入的时间和资源,资源配置失误成本 ：,通货膨胀扭曲产品的相对价格,税收扭曲引起的成本,不便引起的成本,二、通货膨胀,4.通货膨胀的社会成本,How Inflation Raises the Tax Burden on Saving,Copyright2004 South-Western,（3）未预期到的通货膨胀的成本,任意的财富再分配,二、通货膨胀,4.通货膨胀的社会成本,三、菲利普斯曲线,（,Phillips Curve）,1.,菲利普斯曲线的含义,最初的菲利普斯曲线表示失业率与货币工资变化率之间的关系。,现在通常表示通货膨胀率与失业率之间关系。,The Phillips Curve,Unemployment,Rate (percent),0,Inflation,Rate,(percent,per year),Phillips curve,4,B,6,7,A,2,Copyright 2004 South-Western,How the Phillips Curve is Related to Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply,Quantity,of Output,0,Short-run,aggregate,supply,(a) The Model of Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply,Unemployment,Rate (percent),0,Inflation,Rate,(percent,per year),Price,Level,(b) The Phillips Curve,Phillips curve,Low aggregate,demand,High,aggregate demand,(output is,8,000),B,4,6,(output is,7,500),A,7,2,8,000,(unemployment,is 4%),106,B,(unemployment,is 7%),7,500,102,A,Copyright 2004 South-Western,2.长期菲利普斯曲线,长期总供给曲线与价格无关,长期菲利普斯曲线是一条位于自然失业率水平的垂直线,长期菲利普斯曲线与长期总供给曲线是同一枚硬币的两面,三、菲利普斯曲线,（,Phillips Curve）,The Long-Run Phillips Curve,Unemployment,Rate,0,Natural rate of,unemployment,Inflation,Rate,Long-run,Phillips curve,B,High,inflation,Low,inflation,A,2. . . . but unemployment,remains at its natural rate,in the long run.,1. When the,Fed increases,the growth rate,of the money,supply, the,rate of inflation,increases . . .,Copyright 2004 South-Western,How the Phillips Curve is Related to Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply,Quantity,of Output,Natural rate,of output,Natural rate of,unemployment,0,Price,Level,P,AD,1,LRAS,LRAS,(a) The Model of Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply,Unemployment,Rate,0,Inflation,Rate,(b) The Phillips Curve,A,AD,2,B,A,P,2,B,Copyright 2004 South-Western,对通货膨胀预期的调整把短期与长期菲利普斯曲线联系起来。,弗里德曼和费尔普斯引入预期通胀率后的菲利普斯曲线：,3.预期与短期菲利普斯曲线的移动,三、菲利普斯曲线,（,Phillips Curve,）,How Expected Inflation Shifts the Short-Run Phillips Curve,Unemployment,Rate,0,Natural rate of,unemployment,Inflation,Rate,Long-run,Phillips curve,Short-run Phillips curve,with high expected,inflation,Short-run Phillips curve,with low expected,inflation,1. Expansionary policy moves,the economy up along the,short-run Phillips curve . . .,2. . . . but in the long run, expected,inflation rises, and the short-run,Phillips curve shifts to the right.,C,B,A,Copyright 2004 South-Western,重要结论：,决策者面临着通货膨胀和失业的交替关系，但只是暂时的。如果决策者利用这种交替关系，这种交替关系就不存在了。,三、菲利普斯曲线,（,Phillips Curve）,3.预期与短期菲利普斯曲线的移动,4.供给冲击与菲利普斯曲线移动,AS,曲线的不利移动（,AS,下降）使菲利普斯曲线向右上方移动：同样的失业率对应更高的通胀率。,三、菲利普斯曲线,（,Phillips Curve）,An Adverse Shock to Aggregate Supply,Quantity,of Output,0,Price,Level,AD,(a) The Model of Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply,Unemployment,Rate,0,Inflation,Rate,(b) The Phillips Curve,3. . . . and,raises,the price,level . . .,AS,2,AS,A,1. An adverse,shift in aggregate,supply . . .,4. . . . giving policymakers,a less favorable tradeoff,between unemployment,and inflation.,B,P,2,Y,2,P,A,Y,P,C,1,2. . . . lowers output . . .,PC,2,B,Copyright 2004 South-Western,5.降低通胀的代价,牺牲率,（,the sacrifice ratio,）,紧缩的货币或财政政策为使通货膨胀率降低1%而导,致的产量损失的百分比。,牺牲率的大小取决于菲利普斯曲线的斜率、通胀预,期对新货币、财政政策的调整速度。,三、菲利普斯曲线,（,Phillips Curve）,Disinflationary Monetary Policy in the Short Run and the Long Run,Unemployment,Rate,0,Natural rate of,unemployment,Inflation,Rate,Long-run,Phillips curve,Short-run Phillips curve,with high expected,inflation,Short-run Phillips curve,with low expected,inflation,1. Contractionary policy moves,the economy down along the,short-run Phillips curve . . .,2. . . . but in the long run, expected,inflation falls, and the short-run,Phillips curve shifts to the left.,B,C,A,Copyright 2004 South-Western,理性预期与反通胀,理性预期,（,rational expectation,）,人们利用一切可能利用的信息对未来所形成 的预期。如果人们的预期是理性的，反通货膨胀,就没有代价。,三、菲利普斯曲线,（,Phillips Curve,）,5.降低通胀的代价,The Phillips Curve in the 1960s (U.S.),1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,0,2,4,6,8,10,Unemployment,Rate (percent),Inflation Rate,(percent per year),1968,1966,1961,1962,1963,1967,1965,1964,Copyright 2004 South-Western,The Breakdown of the Phillips Curve (U.S.),1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,0,2,4,6,8,10,Unemployment,Rate (percent),Inflation Rate,(percent per year),1973,1966,1972,1971,1961,1962,1963,1967,1968,1969,1970,1965,1964,Copyright 2004 South-Western,The Supply Shocks of the 1970s (U.S.),1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,0,2,4,6,8,10,Unemployment,Rate (percent),Inflation Rate,(percent per year),1972,1975,1981,1976,1978,1979,1980,1973,1974,1977,Copyright 2004 South-Western,The Volcker Disinflation,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,0,2,4,6,8,10,Unemployment,Rate (percent),Inflation Rate,(percent per year),1980,1981,1982,1984,1986,1985,1979,A,1983,B,1987,C,Copyright 2004 South-Western,The Greenspan Era,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,0,2,4,6,8,10,Unemployment,Rate (percent),Inflation Rate,(percent per year),1984,1991,1985,1992,1986,1993,1994,1988,1987,1995,1996,2002,1998,1999,2000,2001,1989,1990,1997,Copyright 2004 South-Western,