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Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,PPT课件,7-,Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.,Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,Chapter 7,Urbanization and Rural-Urban Migration: Theory and Policy,1,PPT课件,Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.,7-,2,The Migration and Urbanization Dilemma,Urbanization: trends and projections,2,PPT课件,Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.,7-,3,Figure 7.1 Urbanization and Per Capital Income in Selected Countries,3,PPT课件,Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.,7-,4,Figure 7.2 Urbanization across Time and Income Levels,4,PPT课件,Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.,7-,5,Figure 7.3 Proportion of Urban Population by Region, 1950-2030,5,PPT课件,Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.,7-,6,Figure 7.4 Megacities: Cities with Ten Million or More Inhabitants,6,PPT课件,Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.,7-,7,Figure 7.5 Estimated and Projected Urban and Rural Population of the More and Less Developed Regions, 1950-2030,7,PPT课件,Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.,7-,8,Figure 7.6 Annual Growth of Urban and Slum Populations, 1990-2001,8,PPT课件,Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.,7-,9,The Role of Cities,Agglomeration economies, Urbanization economies, Localization economies,Industrial districts,Efficient urban scale,9,PPT课件,Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.,7-,10,The Urban Giantism Problem,First- city bias,Causes of Urban Giantism,10,PPT课件,11,PPT课件,委内瑞拉首都街景,上图：城市化达到,90%,与贫民窟密布下图：贫民区群众进入首都阻断交通,12,PPT课件,巴西的城市化超过,80%,，城市中形成了大型贫民窟,左上：圣保罗贫民窟一角右下：贫民窟的街道左下：远景是城市中心区的高楼大厦，中景是近郊的外资企业，近景是杂乱无章的贫民窟,13,PPT课件,印度的城市化仅仅,30%,，但也与贫民窟扩大同步,左上：铁路边的贫民窟右下：公路边的贫民窟左下：露宿街头乞丐群体,14,PPT课件,15,PPT课件,Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.,7-,16,Table 7.1 Population of the Largest and Second-Largest Cities in Selected Countries (millions),16,PPT课件,Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.,7-,17,Figure 7.6,Annual Growth of Urban and Slum Populations, 1990-2001,17,PPT课件,Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.,7-,18,The Urban Informal Sector,Importance of the informal sector in developing economies,Policies for the Urban Informal Sector,Women in the Informal Sector,18,PPT课件,Informal Sector,19,PPT课件,Agri.,City,formal,unemployment,Informal sector,p,1-p,q,1-q,20,PPT课件,Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.,7-,21,Figure 7.8 Importance of Informal Employment in Selected Cities,21,PPT课件,Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.,7-,22,Figure 7.9 Youth Unemployment Rates, 1995 and 2005,22,PPT课件,Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.,7-,23,Migration and Development,Rural-to-urban migration was viewed positively until recently,The current view is that this migration is greater than the urban areas abilities to,Create jobs,Provide social services,23,PPT课件,Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.,7-,24,Figure 7.10 Components of Migration in Selected Countries,24,PPT课件,Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.,7-,25,Toward an Economic Theory of Rural-Urban Migration,A verbal description of the Todaro model,Migration is a rational decision,The decision depends on expected rather than actual wage differentials,The probability of obtaining a city job is inversely related to the urban unemployment rate,High rates of migration are outcomes of rural urban imbalances,A Diagrammatic Presentation,25,PPT课件,Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.,7-,26,Figure 7.11 Schematic Framework for Analyzing the Rural-to-Urban Migration Decision,26,PPT课件,收入预期与迁移决策,城市部门工人的平均收入，,农村劳动力的平均收入,n,迁移计划的时期数，,r表示贴现率，,C(O)迁移的成本，,p(t)在城市平均收入水平上找到工资工作的概率，那么迁移的决策取决于,27,PPT课件,Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.,7-,28,Figure 7.12 The Harris-Todaro Migration Model,28,PPT课件,Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.,7-,29,Toward an Economic Theory of Rural-Urban Migration,Where,W,A,is agricultural income,L,M,is employment in manufacturing,L,US,is total urban labor pool,W,M,is the urban minimum wage,29,PPT课件,Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.,7-,30,Toward an Economic Theory of Rural-Urban Migration,Five Policy Implications,Reduction of urban bias,Imbalances in expected income opportunities is crucial,Indiscriminate educational expansion fosters increased migration and unemployment,Wage subsidies and scarcity factor pricing can be counterproductive,Programs of integrated rural development should be encouraged,30,PPT课件,Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.,7-,31,A Comprehensive Migration and Employment Strategy,Create a urban-rural balance,Expand small, labor intensive industries,Eliminate factor-price distortion,Choose appropriate technologies,Modify the linkage between education and employment,Reduce population growth,Decentralize authority,31,PPT课件,32,PPT课件,Case study,：,Chinas migration labors,Stage:,Before the Agri-Reform,In 1980s:TVE,Arter 1992s,33,PPT课件,Old generation:,the petty bourgeoisie,34,PPT课件,Young generation of migrant workers,：,A new work class,？, 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.,7-,36,Case Study: India,36,PPT课件,Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.,7-,37,Case Study: Botswana,37,PPT课件,Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.,7-,38,Concepts for Review,Agglomeration externalities,Congestion,Efficiency wage,Expected income,Induced migration,Informal sector,Labor turnover,Localization economies,Present value,Rural-urban migration,Social capital,Todaro migration model,Urban bias,Urbanization economies,Wage subsidy,38,PPT课件,
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