第七章国家风险评估及管理课件

第七章国家风险评估及管理第七章国家风险评估及管理Chapter ObjectivesnTo identify the common factors used by MNCs to measure a countrys political risk and financial risk;nTo explain the techniques used to measure country risk;andnTo explain how MNCs use the assessment of country risk when making financial decisions.Why Country Risk Analysis Is Important.Definition of Political riskis the risk that the business environment in a host country will change unexpectedly or is the potentially adverse impact of a countrys environment on an MNCs cash flows(国家风险指东道国的商业环境发生非预期的变化，从而对跨国公司的价值产生影响。）2.Some Adverse Impacts:a.A terrorist attackb.A major labor strike in an industryc.A political crisis due to a scandal within a countryd.Concern about a countrys banking system that may cause a major outflow of fundse.The imposition of trade restrictions on imports.Country risk analysis can be used:qto monitor countries where the MNC is currently doing business;qas a screening device to avoid conducting business in countries with excessive risk;andqto revise its investment or financing decisions in light of recent events.Why Country Risk Analysis Is Importantthe companies that assess country risk.nPolitical risk（政治风险）（政治风险）qis the risk that a sovereign host government will unexpectedly change the rules of the game under which businesses operateqPolitical risks arise because of unexpected changes in the political environment within a host country or in the relationship of a host country to another country.nFinancial risk（财务风险）（财务风险）qrefers more generally to unexpected events in a countrys financial,economic,or business lifeqFinancial risk is determined by a host of financial and economic factors,some of which are related to local political risk.Political Risk FactorsA.Attitude of consumers in the host countryqSome consumers are very loyal to locally manufactured products.B.Actions of host governmentqThe host government may impose special requirements or taxes,restrict fund transfers,and subsidize local firms.MNCs can also be hurt by a lack of restrictions,such as failure to enforce copyright laws.Political Risk FactorsC.Blockage of Fund TransfersqFunds that are blocked may not be optimally used.qIf fund transfers are blocked,subsidiaries will have to undertake projects that may not be optimal for the MNC.D.Currency InconvertibilityqThe MNC parent may need to exchange earnings for goods if the foreign currency cannot be changed into other currenciesE.WarqInternal and external battles,or even the threat of war,can have devastating effects.qThe 2003 War in IraqF.Bureaucracy(官僚）qBureaucracy can complicate businesses.G.Corruption（腐败）qCorruption can increase the cost of conducting business or reduce revenue.Political Risk FactorsCorruption Perceptions IndexThe index,which is published by Transparency International,reflects the degree to which corruption is perceived to exist among public officials and politicians.In 2001,91 countries are ranked on a clean score of 10.Rank Country Score1Finland9.93New Zealand 9.44Singapore9.27Canada8.913U.K.8.314Hong Kong7.916Israel7.616U.S.A.7.618Chile7.520Germany7.421Japan7.1Rank Country Score23France6.726Botswana6.027Taiwan5.938South Africa 4.842South Korea4.246Brazil4.051Mexico3.757Argentina3.557China3.579Russia2.388Indonesia1.9Corruption Index Ratings for Selected CountriesMaximum rating=10.High ratings indicate low corruption.nFind out more about Transparency International and the Corruption Perceptions Index by visiting.Online ApplicationFinancial Risk FactorsA.Current and Potential State of the Countrys EconomyqA recession can severely reduce demand.qFinancial distress can also cause the government to restrict MNC operations.B.Indicators of Economic GrowthqA countrys economic growth is dependent on several financial factors-interest rates,exchange rates,inflation,etc.Examples of political risksExpropriation risk（征用风险）（征用风险）Assets have been expropriated after revolutions in Iran and Chile.Disruptions in operations（经营中断风险（经营中断风险）-changes in laws or regulations.much more common than expropriation and can happen even in peacetime.Protectionism（贸易保护主义风险）（贸易保护主义风险）-e.g.,“buy American.”Protectionism can affect local consumption.Blocked funds（资金转移风险）（资金转移风险）-funds that cannot be immediately remitted to the parent company.Loss of intellectual property rights（知识产权风险）（知识产权风险）-particularly problematic in developing and transitional economies such as China and the former states of the Soviet Union.Examples of financial risksqCurrency riskqInterest rate riskqInflation riskqUnexpected changes in the current account balanceqUnexpected changes in the balance of tradenPolitical Risk Services International Country Risk Guide（国际国家风险指南）includes the following assessments in their financial risk index.qLoan defaults or loan restructuringsqPayment delays qCancellations of contracts by a host governmentqLosses from exchange controlsqExpropriation of private investmentsnWhat are the political and financial outlook for various countries?Online ApplicationqConsult the Country Commercial Guides prepared by embassy staff at http:/www.usatrade.gov/website/ccg.nsf/ccghomepage?openform.qRefer to the CIAs World Factbook at http:/www.odci.gov/.qVisit http:/ifc/Types of Country Risk Assessment.Macroassessment of Country RisknMacro risksaffect all firms in a host country(指在东道国整个指在东道国整个国家范围内发生的影响到所有企业的风险，如东道国的财政和货币政国家范围内发生的影响到所有企业的风险，如东道国的财政和货币政策、银行系统、税率、资本管制、汇率等的突然变化。策、银行系统、税率、资本管制、汇率等的突然变化。）a.Characteristics of the Country:1.)Political factors2.)Financial factorsb.Uncertainty Surrounding a Macroassessment2.Microassessment of Country RisknMicro risksspecific to an industry,firm or project in a country（指仅对某一特定行业或企业产生影响的风险，如移民政策指仅对某一特定行业或企业产生影响的风险，如移民政策的突然改变对大量使用外来劳动力的企业造成的影响。的突然改变对大量使用外来劳动力的企业造成的影响。）nThe overall assessment thus consists of macropolitical risk,macrofinancial risk,micropolitical risk,and microfinancial risk.Assessments of country risksqBank of AmericaqBusiness Environment Risk IntelligenceqControl Risks Information ServicesqDun and Bradstreet qEconomist Intelligence UnitqEuromoney qInstitutional Investor qMoodys Investor Services qOrg for Econ Co-operation and DevelopmentqPolitical Risk Services qStandard and Poors Country risksAfricaAsiaEurope Mid EastAmericasA1AustraliaSwitzerlandCanadaUKA2BotswanaHK JapanGermanyKuwait USAS.KoreaItalyUAEA3MauritiusChinaCyprus IsraelChileNamibiaThailandCzech RepTrinidadA4Egypt IndiaLatviaSaudi MexicoS.AfricaPhilippinesPoland Arabia PanamaBAlgeria BangladeshSlovakiaEgyptBrazil PeruUganda Sri LankaRussia Jordan VenezuelaCCongoIndonesiaAzerbaijanIran SyriaHaitiKenya VietnamRomaniaTurkey JamaicaDNigeria AfghanistanAlbania IraqArgentinaSudanN.KoreaUkraineCubaZimbabwePakistanYugoslaviaEcuadorTechniques of Assessing Country RisknA checklist approach（清单法）involves rating and weighting all the identified factors,and then consolidating the rates and weights to produce an overall assessment.nThe Delphi technique（德尔菲法）involves collecting various independent opinions and then averaging and measuring the dispersion of those opinions.Techniques of Assessing Country RisknQuantitative analysis（定量分析法）techniques like regression analysis can be applied to historical data to assess the sensitivity of a business to various risk factors.nInspection visits（参观视察法）involve traveling to a country and meeting with government officials,firm executives,and/or consumers to clarify uncertainties.nOften,firms use a variety of techniques for making country risk assessments.nFor example,they may use the checklist approach to develop an overall country risk rating,and some of the other techniques to assign ratings to the factors.n例如，国际国家风险指南（ICRG），设置了一个加权平均指数来反映国家风险，该指数由50%的政治风险指标、25%的金融风险指标和25%的经济风险指标构成。Techniques of Assessing Country RiskMeasuring Country RiskThe checklist approach involves:Assigning values and weights to political and financial risk factors,Multiplying the factor values with their weights,and summing up to give the political and financial risk ratings,Assigning weights to the risk ratings,andMultiplying the ratings with their weights,and summing up to give the country risk rating.Cougar Co.:Determining the Overall Country Risk RatingCougar Co.:Derivation of the Overall Country Risk Rating注意：nThe procedures for quantifying country risk will vary with the assessor,the country being assessed,as well as the type of operations being planned.nFirms use country risk ratings when screening potential projects,and when monitoring existing projects.Measuring Country RisknAdjustment of the Discount RateqThe higher the perceived risk,the higher the discount rate that should be applied to the projects cash flows.nAdjustment of the Estimated Cash FlowsqBy estimating how the cash flows could be affected by each form of risk,the MNC can determine the probability distribution of the net present value of the project.Incorporating Country Risk in Capital BudgetingImpact of Country Risk on an MNCs Valuenttmjtjtjk1=1,1ER ECF E =ValueE(CFj,t)=expected cash flows in currency j to be received by the U.S.parent at the end of period tE(ERj,t)=expected exchange rate at which currency j can be converted to dollars at the end of period tk=weighted average cost of capital of the parentExposure of Foreign Projects to Country RisksStrategies for managing country risk1.Negotiate the environment with the host country prior to investmentqThe investment environmentqThe financial environment2.Structure foreign operations to minimize country risk while maximizing return3.Obtain political risk issuranceStrategies for managing country risknNegotiate the environment with the host country prior to investment（与环境协调配合）nThe Investment Environment can be agreed to in an Investment agreement that specifies the rights and obligations of the parties:qTaxes(e.g.,duties,tariffs,tax holidays)qLabor issues(e.g.,use of expatriate managers)qConcessions(e.g.,privileged access to restricted markets)qObligations(e.g.,tie-in projects)qRestrictions(e.g.,on imports or exports to other markets)qProvisions for planned investment divestitureqPerformance assurances on the part of the host governmentqRemedies against delay or expropriationqProvisions and venues for international arbitration of disputesStrategies for managing country risknNegotiate the environment with the host country prior to investmentnThe Financial Environment:qCash flow remittance(management fees,royalties,loan repayments,dividends,transfer pricing)qAccess to capital markets in the host country,including any ownership restrictionsqPossibility of subsidized financing from the host governmentqCorporate governance environmentqRemedies in case of corporate nonperformance or government default,including provisions and venues for the international arbitration of disputesnStructure foreign operations to minimize risk while maximizing returnqLimit the scope of technology transfer to foreign affiliates to include only non-essential parts of the production processqLimit dependence on any single partnerqEnlist local partnersqUse more stringent investment criteriaqPlan for disaster recoveryStrategies for managing country riskReducing Exposureto Host Government TakeoversnThe benefits of DFI can be offset by country risk,the most severe of which is a host government takeover.nTo reduce the chance of a takeover by the host government,firms often use the following strategies:Use a Short-Term HorizonqThis technique concentrates on recovering cash flow quickly.Reducing Exposureto Host Government TakeoversRely on Unique Supplies or TechnologyqIn this way,the host government will not be able to take over and operate the subsidiary successfully.Hire Local Labor聘请本地劳工qThe local employees can apply pressure on their government.Borrow Local FundsqThe local banks can apply pressure on their government.Purchase InsuranceqInvestment guarantee programs offered by the home country母国,host country,or an international agency insure to some extent various forms of country risk.Reducing Exposureto Host Government TakeoversPolitical risk insurancenInsurable political risks includeqExpropriation（征用）due to warrevolutioninsurrection暴动civil disturbance内乱terrorismqRepatriation restrictions遣返限制Political risk insurersnGovernment export credit agenciesqU.S.Overseas Private Investment CorporationqU.K.Export Credits Guarantee DepartmentnInternationalqWorld Bank Multilateral Investment Guarantee AgencynPrivateqLloyds of London qAmerican International Group(AIG)Political risk insurers政治风险保险nA history of political risk insuranceqPrior to the 1990s,government agencies such as OPIC were the primary underwriters.Private insurers were inactive.Political risk cover typically was available only up to about$10 million and for terms of only about three years.qThe World Banks MIGA was created in 1990 to promote intl trade.qDuring the 1990s,private insurers infused liquidity with insurable amounts to more than$100 million and terms of up to ten years.qMuch of this growth in the private market has been driven by the increase in project finance.qThere is also an emerging reinsurance market that allows insurers to lay off their political risks onto other insurers or private investors.nThe costs of political risk insuranceqAnnual premiums through Lloyds of London or the American International Group(AIG)can be as high as 10%of the amount of the investment in high-risk countries.qThe premiums of private insurers vary widely,so corporations should shop around for the best terms.Use project financeqProject finance deals（项目融资交易）are heavily financed with credit,thus limiting the MNCs exposure.qThe loans are secured（有抵押）by the projects future revenues and are“nonrecourse.”（无追索权）qA bank may guarantee the payments to the MNC.Reducing Exposureto Host Government Takeovers