上海住宅市场分析.ppt

July 23, 2020,Study on the Housing Market in Shanghai,Yiwen Yang November 2008,July 23, 2020,Contents,The Review of the Housing Market in Shanghai The Prospect of the Housing market and Steel Usage in Shanghai,July 23, 2020,Contents,The Review of the Housing Market in Shanghai,Part 1,Details,Economy Demography Residential Building,July 23, 2020,GDP,GDP in Shanghai has been growing rapidly for more ten years and the growth rate was over 10%. GDP in Shanghai reached CNY1.2 trillion in 2007 which shared 4.8% in GDP of China at the same term. Per Capita GDP in Shanghai came to CNY 66,000 in 2007 which was almost twice as many as the one in 2000. Per Capita GDP in Shanghai was the highest among the direct jurisdiction cities in China and it was thrice or fourfold as many as the Per Capita GDP in China from 2000 through 2007.,Source: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS),July 23, 2020,Contents,The Review of the Housing Market in Shanghai,Part 1,Details,Economy Demography Residential Building,July 23, 2020,Population,Population in Shanghai reached 18.6 million in 2007 which held 1.4% of the total population of China. Natural growth of population in Shanghai didnt go down until 2004 and began to go up in 2005. It fluctuated by 0.96-3.14 during in 2005 and in 2007.,Source: NBS,July 23, 2020,Income of Residents,Per capita annual disposable income of residents in Shanghai kept a steady growth all the time from 1994 to 2007 and it reached CNY16378 and CNY10145 for urban and rural residents respectively in 2007. An increasing residents income shows that residents in Shanghai has more and more strong purchase capacity.,Source: NBS,July 23, 2020,Contents,The Review of the Housing Market in Shanghai,Part 1,Details,Economy Demography Residential Building,July 23, 2020,Investment Value for Housing,Investment value of building from real estate developer has been going up since 1999 and arrived at CNY 131 billion in 2007. Investment value for housing in Shanghai declined by about 9% in 2006 affected by the control of government for overheating real estate in China, but it maintained stable in 2007. It shared 19%-30% of local FAI during in 2000 and in 2007.,Source: NBS, Shanghai Statistical Yearbook 2008,July 23, 2020,Floor Area of Buildings,Although new area commencement of building from real estate developer began to shrink in 2005, it still kept more than 23 million sqm annually. Area completion of building from real estate developer decreased in 2005 and after then, it began to increase slightly till 2007. It fluctuated within 30-34 million sqm per year during in 2004 and in 2007. On the whole, area completion kept increasing steadily from 1999 to 2007.,Source: NBS,July 23, 2020,Floor Area of Residential Buildings,Total floor area under constructed for the residential building in Shanghai began to soar in 1999. After reaching the peak of 82.7 million sqm in 2005, it began to decline slowly. The CAGR is 10.2% from 1999 through 2005. Total floor area completed for the residential building in Shanghai maintained stable during in 1999 and in 2001 and it began to rocket in 2002 till 2004 with CAGR of 20%. There was a rapider decrease of 14% for total floor area completion of the residential building in 2005 and it began to maintain stable since then.,Total floor area under constructed and completed for the residential building in Shanghai in 2007 was 77.9 million sqm and 28.4 million sqm respectively, which shared 52% and 56% of the corresponding area of building in 2007.,Source: Shanghai Statistical Yearbook 2008,July 23, 2020,Commercial Houses,86%-94% of the sales commercial buildings were residential buildings in Shanghai over the past ten years. Sales area of commercial houses kept climbing from 1997 to 2004 and it began to fall in 2005. in 2007, sales area of commercial houses soared to 32.8 million sqm which was the peak over the past thirteen years.,Selling price of commercial house in Shanghai increased continuously and reached the peak of CNY 8253. The selling price difference between commercial house and other commercial building was getting smaller and it was CNY 960 in 2007.,Source: NBS,July 23, 2020,Commercial Houses by Region,Nanhui, Pudong New Area, Songjiang, Baoshan, and Minhang district all ranked top 6 districts according to the floor area completion or selling area of the residential building in Shanghai both in 2006 and in 2007. The floor area completion of the residential building in the above five districts accounted for 63% of the total in Shanghai in 2006 and 64% in 2007. The selling area of the residential building in the above districts shared 61% of the total in Shanghai in 2006 and 63% in 2007.,Source: Shanghai Statistical Yearbook 2008, 2007,July 23, 2020,Building Type,58% of the existed buildings in Shanghai were the residential buildings and 95% of the existed residential buildings were flats by the end of 2007. The area of the existed buildings in Shanghai was 749 million sqm, 433 million sqm of them are the residential buildings by the end of 2007.,Source: Shanghai Statistical Yearbook 2008,July 23, 2020,Building Type,The area of existed houses with above eight stories was 157.7 million sqm which shared 36.4% of all existed houses in Shanghai in 2007. In the existed houses with above eight stories, 32% was the houses with eight to fifteen stories, 51% was the houses with sixteen to twenty-nine stories, and 17% was the houses with above thirty stories.,Source: Shanghai Statistical Yearbook 2008,July 23, 2020,Annual Area Increment of Buildings,There was an area increment of above 24 million sqm annually for the residential building in Shanghai since 2000. CAGR of the area of the existed residential building at the end of year was 13% from 2000 to 2005, 8% in 2006 and 6% in 2007.,Source: Shanghai Statistical Yearbook,July 23, 2020,Residential Buildings By District,Baoshan, Minhang, Nanhui and Pudong New Area district were in the top 6 according to the annual area increment of residential buildings both in 2006 and in 2007 compared to the other 14 districts in Shanghai. The annual area increment of residential building from Baoshan, Minhang, Nanhui and Pudong New Area district accounted for 50% and 52% of the total in Shanghai in 2006 and in 2007 respectively, which were 14.4 million sqm and 12.7 million sqm respectively.,Source: Shanghai Statistical Yearbook 2008, 2007,July 23, 2020,Per Capita Residential Area,Per capita residential area for the urban in Shanghai was 16.5 sqm by the end of 2007. Although it was getting more, it was still comparatively less and lower than the average level in China which was 27.1 sqm.,Per capita residential area for the rural in Shanghai was getting more and arrived at 61.2 sqm in 2007, which greatly exceeded the average level in China which was 31.6 sqm.,Source: NBS,July 23, 2020,Contents,The Prospect of the Housing market and Steel Usage in Shanghai,Part 2,The Outlook of the Housing Market The Prospect of the Steel Used in Housing Market,Details,July 23, 2020,Short-term Expectation,Source: NBS,The growth rate of the invest value of residential buildings in Shanghai began to decline in July this year affected by global financial crisis. But there was a greater increase in October encouraged by the stimulating actions from government.,Up to October of 2008, the invest value of real estate and residential buildings in Shanghai still kept increasing compared to the corresponding period of last year.,July 23, 2020,Short-term Expectation,Source: NBS,The area commencement and area under-construction of the residential buildings started to decrease in August this year impacted by global financial crisis clearly, but there was a dramatic increase for them in October.,Affected by China macro-economic control especially financial contraction in the first half of this year, the area under-construction and completion of residential buildings decreases greatly this year compared to the same term of last year.,July 23, 2020,Short-term Expectation,Source: NBS,Sale of residential buildings in Shanghai appeared declining in 2008. The sales area of commercial dwellings decreased greatly compared to the same term of last year.,The recession of real estate market in Shanghai result from the government macro-control policy and financial contraction in order to inhibit the overheating real estate industry in China. In addition, global financial crisis is aggravating it.,July 23, 2020,Short-term Expectation,July 23, 2020,Long-Term Expectation,The residential buildings of 93 million square meter will be constructed in the next five years according to the government plan for the real estate industry in Shanghai. It is expected that annual residential area completion will be around 20 million square meter . Shanghai government will push the construction of the economical residential buildings in the coming five years. 22 million square meter of 93 million square meter is for the economical residential buildings in order to make the low-salary residents in Shanghai improve their residential condition. In other words, the economical residential buildings of 4 million square meter or so will be built annually. The main type of the economical residential building will be high-rise flats of about twenty stories.,Source: Shanghai Real Estate Trade Association, Shanghai Municipal Housing, Land and Resource Administration Bureau,July 23, 2020,Long-Term Expectation,The dwellings of 22-28 million square meter will be constructed annually in the next 5-10 years based on the regression relation between the residential area completion and the investment value of real estate. ( R=0.90, the linear dependence relation is good.),The residences of 33-47 million square meter will be built annually in the next 5-10 years based on the regression relation between the residential area completion and GDP. ( R=0.76, the linear dependence relation is moderate.),Assumed the 6% of GDP is from the investment value of real estate in Shanghai in the next 5-10 years according to the contribution of investment value to GDP in 2006-2007.,July 23, 2020,Long-Term Expectation,It is expected that the demand for the residences from the population increment, residential improvement, and substitution for the dismantled residence will come to around 20 million square meter annually before 2010 and near 28 million annually before 2015.,It is assumed that the population natural growth in Shanghai is 1 by 2015. Per capita residential area will reach 35 square meter by 2020 according to the plan of China government. 20 square meter in 2010 and 30 square meter in 2015 in Shanghai are expected here. The dismantled residence area was 8.5 , 8.5, 6.9 million square meter in 2005-2007 respectively. It is assumed that substitution for the dismantled residence will be 6 million square meter annually by 2010 and 3 million square meter annually 2011-2015.,July 23, 2020,Long-Term Expectation,July 23, 2020,Contents,The Prospect of the Housing market and Steel Usage in Shanghai,Part 2,The Outlook of the Housing Market The Prospect of the Steel Used in Housing Market,Details,July 23, 2020,The Review of Steel House,Source: Fusion Consulting,The total area completion of the dwellings in Shanghai was 17.5 million square meter in 2006 and 87% of them were high-rise flats, 6% and 7% of them were the detached and semi-detached villa respectively. There were no low-rise flats to be built in 2006.,The total area completion of the steel house in Shanghai was 403 thousand square meter in 2006 and 76% of them were high-rise flats, 17% of them were the detached villa.,July 23, 2020,The Review of Steel House,Source: Fusion Consulting,The steel residential buildings shared 2.3% of the total residential buildings in Shanghai in 2006, which is very low. It is more popular for the detached villa to choose steel house.,The total steel consumption in house of Shanghai was 27.2 thousand tons in 2006 and 88% of them is used in high-rise flats.,July 23, 2020,The Review of Steel House,The higher construction cost of the steel house makes developers not choose steel. For example, the construction cost of Binjiang steel house located in Jiangsu province is CNY 2000 per square meter but the construction cost of the concrete house is CNY 1600 per square meter. Mutual compounded products for the steel houses havent been industrialized in China, such as wallboard, roof. This results in developers are afraid of using steel house.,July 23, 2020,Higher labor cost in Shanghai Higher groundwork cost resulting from the soft groundsill for concrete residential buildings in Shanghai Higher income for residents in Shanghai,The Prospect of Steel Used in the House,Compared to other cities in China, there are a couple of benefits for Shanghai to use steel house.,July 23, 2020,The Prospect of Steel Used in the House,The steel consumption in steel housing of Shanghai will be 30-60 thousand tons annually in the next 3-5 years based on 2% to 3% of new residential buildings are steel housing. The steel consumption in steel housing of Shanghai will be 70-95 thousand tons annually after 5-10 years based on 5% of new residential buildings are steel housing.,July 23, 2020,Conclusions,The residential building of 22-28 million sqm were built annually over the past five years and less than 3% of the residential buildings were steel house. Nanhui, Pudong New Area, Songjiang, Baoshan, and Minhang district were the more active region market for the housing in Shanghai both in 2006 and in 2007. The residential building was the main market for the real estate in Shanghai and the high-rise flats was main type of building before 2007.,July 23, 2020,Conclusions,GDP in Shanghai will continue to increase steadily by 7-8%. The housing market in Shanghai will keep stable in 2008. It will weaken in the first half of 2009,but it will begin to improve in the second half of 2009 if government continues to make measures to stimulate domestic demands. There will be the dwellings of 20-28 million square meter to be constructed annually in Shanghai by 2015. The share of the steel housing in Shanghai will be less than 5% in the next 5-10 years. The steel consumption in steel house is expected to reach 30-60 thousand tons annually in the next 3-5 years and 70-95 thousand tons annually after 5-10 years.,