演讲稿(全球经济与中国投资热).ppt

NomuraSecuritiesInternationalApril28,2020,全球经济展望与中国的投资热潮,孙明春中国首席经济学家/中国股票研究部主管野村证券2009年10月,除非另有说明，否则本报告中的署名作者均为研究分析师。请参阅本报告最后一页的重要披露和重要分析员保证。,全球经济展望：鲜明的对比,3,NomuraSecuritiesInternationalApril28,2020,我们的全球经济观点一览,积极的政策反应帮助全球经济走出了衰退，但需要看到的是，危机余波的影响将会持续很长一段时间。世界似乎被一分为二：发达国家在很长一段时间都会复苏乏力，而很多新兴经济体则将开始强劲增长。应对危机所采取的货币政策应该不会导致通胀失控；如果出现这一风险，具有独立性的央行可能会紧缩政策。除了金融危机再次爆发的风险以外，主要的风险是：一旦政策紧缩，仍然疲软的发达经济体可能会再度萎缩。可能的上行风险：乐观情绪再加上货币政策刺激启动了良性循环。,4,NomuraSecuritiesInternational28April2020,从危机导致的经济衰退中复苏,实际GDP增长(%年同比),_备注:根据购买力平价调整后的世界GDP份额来计算总量；发达国家包括美国、加拿大、日本、澳大利亚、香港、新加坡、欧元区和英国；其他所有国家均被认为是新兴市场；金砖四国：巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国。数据来源：野村全球经济。,5,NomuraSecuritiesInternational28April2020,通缩不再，但高通胀的风险很小,CPI(%年同比),_数据来源：野村全球经济。,6,NomuraSecuritiesInternational28April2020,货币刺激政策：政策利率接近0%,主要经济体的政策利率(%),_数据来源：野村全球经济。,预期,7,NomuraSecuritiesInternational28April2020,货币刺激政策：数量放松政策,央行的资产负债表(指数，2007年1月份=100),_备注：可获得8月份中旬的英国央行数据。数据来源：各国央行网站和野村全球经济。,8,NomuraSecuritiesInternational28April2020,货币刺激政策：赤字创历史新高,中央政府的预算收支(占GDP的%),_数据来源：野村全球经济。.,9,NomuraSecuritiesInternational28April2020,美国：对各年份的预测图,_数据来源：野村全球经济。,(%年同比),(%年同比),(占GDP的%),(占GDP的%),10,NomuraSecuritiesInternational28April2020,美国：房地产冲击接近尾声,美国住宅投资占GDP的比例(%),_备注：阴影部分表示衰退期。数据来源：野村全球经济。,11,NomuraSecuritiesInternational28April2020,美国：与正常水平相距甚远,新屋开工和新建家庭的数量(百万,经季调后年率),_备注：*保持稳定户主率的家庭数量的增长。数据来源：美国人口普查局和野村全球经济。.,12,NomuraSecuritiesInternational28April2020,美国：库存高企,对独户住宅过剩存量的估计（百万套）,_备注:独户住宅最优存量的经济计量模型的残值；模型是基于家庭人口增长、实际可支配个人收入以及居住成本（税后抵押贷款利率、房价预期、住宅投资的相对价格和折旧估计值的函数）。数据来源：野村全球经济。,13,NomuraSecuritiesInternational28April2020,美国：房屋销售转好,独户住宅销售（百万套，经季调后年率）,_数据来源：全国房地产商协会和人口普查局。,14,NomuraSecuritiesInternational28April2020,美国：房价初步企稳,美国房价指数(2006年1月份=100),_备注:所有数据均利用标准统计技术进行季节性调整（有可能未考虑所有的季节性变化）；FHFA(之前的OFHEO)房价指数只衡量获得agency-conforming贷款的房屋。,15,NomuraSecuritiesInternational28April2020,美国：三分之一的房屋资不抵债,截止2009年6月份，房屋抵押贷款中资不抵债的贷款比例(%),_数据来源：LoanPerformance。,16,NomuraSecuritiesInternationalApril28,2020,美国:房贷合同修改影响有限,修改后的房屋抵押贷款中，逾期30天以上未还款的违约率(%),_数据来源:OCC和OTC抵押贷款指标报告。,修改后的几个月,17,NomuraSecuritiesInternational28April2020,美国:强行收回的房屋数量稳步增长,强行收回的房屋的新增数量(千套，每季度),_备注:数据经过调整以反映数据来源的覆盖面。数据来源：抵押贷款银行家协会。,18,NomuraSecuritiesInternationalApril28,2020,美国:住房抵押贷款债券的发行几乎停滞,非机构抵押贷款支持证券的发行量(十亿美元),_数据来源:ABSAlert。,19,NomuraSecuritiesInternationalApril28,2020,美国:商业不动产遭遇重挫,不动产价格指数(指数,2000年一季度=100),_数据来源:SNomuraInternationalplcandNomuraResearchInstituteEurope,Limited,UnitedKingdom;NomuraSecuritiesInternational,Inc.(NSI)andNomuraResearchInstituteAmerica,Inc.,NewYork,NY;NomuraInternational(HongKong)Ltd.,HongKong;NomuraSingaporeLtd.,Singapore;NomuraAustraliaLtd.,Australia;P.T.NomuraIndonesia,Indonesia;NomuraAdvisoryServices(Malaysia)Sdn.Bhd.,Malaysia;NomuraInternational(HongKong)Ltd.,TaipeiBranch,Taipei,Taiwan;orNomuraSecuritiesCo.,Ltd.,Seoul,Korea.Thismaterialis:(i)foryourprivateinformation,andwearenotsolicitinganyactionbaseduponit;(ii)nottobeconstruedasanoffertosellorasolicitationofanoffertobuyanysecurityinanyjurisdictionwheresuchanofferorsolicitationwouldbeillegal;and(iii)isbaseduponinformationthatweconsiderreliable,butwedonotrepresentthatitisaccurateorcomplete,anditshouldnotberelieduponassuch.Opinionsexpressedarecurrentopinionsasofthedateappearingonthismaterialonlyandtheinformation,includingtheopinionscontainedhereinaresubjecttochangewithoutnotice.Affiliatesand/orsubsidiariesofNomuraHoldings,Inc.(collectivelyreferredtoasthe“NomuraGroup”)mayfromtimetotimeperforminvestmentbankingorotherservices(includingactingasadvisor,managerorlender)for,orsolicitinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessfrom,companiesmentionedherein.TheNomuraGroup,itsofficers,directorsandemployees,includingpersonsinvolvedinthepreparationorissuanceofthismaterialmay,fromtimetotime,havelongorshortpositionsin,andbuyorsell(ormakeamarketin),thesecurities,orderivatives(includingoptions)thereof,ofcompaniesmentionedherein,orrelatedsecuritiesorderivatives.Fixedincomeresearchanalysts,includingthoseresponsibleforthepreparationofthisreport,receivecompensationbasedonvariousfactors,includingqualityandaccuracyofresearch,firmsoverallperformanceandrevenue(includingthefirmsfixedincomedepartment),clientfeedbackandtheanalystsseniority,reputationandexperience.NSCandothernon-USmembersoftheNomuraGroup,theirofficers,directorsandemployeesmay,totheextentitrelatestonon-USissuersandispermittedbyapplicablelaw,haveacteduponorusedthismaterial,priortoorimmediatelyfollowingitspublication.Foreigncurrency-denominatedsecuritiesaresubjecttofluctuationsinexchangeratesthatcouldhaveanadverseeffectonthevalueorpriceof,orincomederivedfromtheinvestment.Inaddition,investorsinsecuritiessuchasADRs,thevaluesofwhichareinfluencedbyforeigncurrencies,effectivelyassumecurrencyrisk.ThesecuritiesdescribedhereinmaynothavebeenregisteredundertheU.S.SecuritiesActof1933,and,insuchcase,maynotbeofferedorsoldintheUnitedStatesortoU.S.personsunlesstheyhavebeenregisteredundersuchAct,orexceptincompliancewithanexemptionfromtheregistrationrequirementsofsuchAct.Unlessgoverninglawpermitsotherwise,youmustcontactaNomuraentityinyourhomejurisdictionifyouwanttouseourservicesineff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