Chap货币和财政政策对总需求的影响实用实用教案

总需求总需求Aggregate Demandu当合意支出变动时，总需求就移动了，这引起产量与就业的短期波动。u When desired spending changes, aggregate demand shifts, causing short-run fluctuations in output and employment.u货币与财政政策有时被用来抵消总需求的移动，以保持经济(jngj)稳定。u Monetary and fiscal policy are sometimes used to offset those shifts and stabilize the economy.第1页/共43页第一页，共44页。货币政策货币政策(hu b zhn c)如何影响如何影响总需求总需求How Monetary Policy Influences Aggregate demandu总需求曲线向右下方倾斜，因为(yn wi)三个原因：u The aggregate demand curve slopes downward for three reasons:u财富效应 The wealth effectu利率效应 The interest-rate effectu汇率效应 The exchange-rate effect第2页/共43页第二页，共44页。货币政策货币政策(hu b zhn c)如何影响总需如何影响总需求求How Monetary Policy Influences Aggregate demand对美国(mi u)经济而言，总需求曲线向右下方倾斜的最重要原因是利率效应。For the U.S. economy, the most important reason for the downward slope of the aggregate-demand curve is the interest-rate effect.第3页/共43页第三页，共44页。流动流动(lidng)偏好理论偏好理论The Theory of Liquidity Preferenceu凯恩斯提出了流动偏好理论来解释决定(judng)经济中利率的因素。u Keynes developed the theory of liquidity preference in order to explain what factors determine the economys interest rate.u根据该理论，利率的调整使货币供给与需求平衡。u According to the theory, the interest rate adjusts to balance the supply and demand for money.第4页/共43页第四页，共44页。货币货币(hub)供给供给Money Supplyu美国经济的货币供给由联邦储备控制(kngzh)。The money supply is controlled by the Fed through:u公开的市场操作 Open-market operationsu改变贮备进数量 Changing the reserve requirementsu改变贴现率 Changing the discount rate第5页/共43页第五页，共44页。货币货币(hub)供给供给Money Supplyu因为被美联储固定，货币的供应量不取决于利率。u Because it is fixed by the Fed, the quantity of money supplied does not depend on the interest rate.u固定的货币供给用垂直的供给曲线(qxin)表示。u The fixed money supply is represented by a vertical supply curve.第6页/共43页第六页，共44页。货币货币(hub)需求需求 Money Demandu货币的需求由多个因素决定(judng)。u Money demand is determined by several factors.u根据流动性偏好理论，一个最重要的因素是利率。u According to the theory of liquidity preference, one of the most important factors is the interest rate.第7页/共43页第七页，共44页。货币货币(hub)需求需求 Money Demand人们(rn men)选择持有货币而不持有其他可以提供较高收益率的资产，是因为货币可以用来购买物品和劳务。People choose to hold money instead of other assets that offer higher rates of return because money can be used to buy goods and services.第8页/共43页第八页，共44页。货币货币(hub)需求需求 Money Demandu持有货币的机会成本(j hu chn bn)是利息，其能从有息资本中赚取。u The opportunity cost of holding money is the interest that could be earned on interest-earning assets.u利率的增加提高了持有货币的机会成本(j hu chn bn)。u An increase in the interest rate raises the opportunity cost of holding money.u结果是，货币需求量降低了。u As a result, the quantity of money demanded is reduced.第9页/共43页第九页，共44页。货币市场货币市场(shchng)的均衡的均衡Equilibrium in the Money Marketu根据流动性偏好理论：u According to the theory of liquidity preference:u利率(ll)的调整使货币的供求平衡。u The interest rate adjusts to balance the supply and demand for money. u存在一种利率(ll)，即所谓的均衡利率(ll)，在这种利率(ll)时，货币的需求量正好与货币的供给量平衡。u There is one interest rate, called the equilibrium interest rate, at which the quantity of money demanded equals the quantity of money supplied.第10页/共43页第十页，共44页。货币市场货币市场(shchng)的均衡的均衡Equilibrium in the Money Market假定经济是下列情况： Assume the following about the economy:物价水平在某一水平上具有黏性。 The price level is stuck at some level.对于既定的物价水平，利率调整使货币供求平衡 For any given price level, the interest rate adjusts to balance the supply and demand for money.产量(chnling)水平根据产品与劳务的总需求作出反应。 The level of output responds to the aggregate demand for goods and services.第11页/共43页第十一页，共44页。货币货币(hub)市场的均衡市场的均衡Equilibrium in the Money MarketQuantity ofMoneyInterestRate0MoneydemandQuantity fixedby the FedMoneysupplyr2M d2r1M d1Equilibrium interest rate第12页/共43页第十二页，共44页。总需求曲线总需求曲线(qxin)向右下方倾斜向右下方倾斜The Downward Slope of the Aggregate Demand Curveu 物价水平是货币需求量的一个决定因素。u The price level is one determinant of the quantity of money demanded.u 在既定的利率下，较高的物价水平增加了货币需求量。u A higher price level increases the quantity of money demanded for any given interest rate.u 较高的货币需求引起了较高的利率。u Higher money demand leads to a higher interest rate.u 减少了物品(wpn)与劳务的需求量。u The quantity of goods and services demanded falls.第13页/共43页第十三页，共44页。总需求曲线总需求曲线(qxin)向右下方倾向右下方倾斜斜The Downward Slope of the Aggregate Demand Curve分析的最后结论是物价水平与物品与劳务需求量之间存在(cnzi)负相关关系。The end result of this analysis is a negative relationship between the price level and the quantity of goods and services demanded.第14页/共43页第十四页，共44页。总需求总需求(b) 总需求曲线总需求曲线(qxin)产量产量(chnling)0Price Level(a) 货币货币(hub)市场市场货币量货币量美联储固定的货币量美联储固定的货币量0r1货币供给货币供给Interest Rate物价水平物价水平 P1 时的货币时的货币需求需求, MD1Y1P1货币市场与总需求曲线的斜率货币市场与总需求曲线的斜率The Money Market and the Slope of the Aggregate Demand Curve.物价水平物价水平 P2时货币时货币需求需求, MD22. 货币需求增加1. 物价水平上升P23. 这引起均衡利率上升r24. 这又减少了物品与劳务的需求量Y2第15页/共43页第十五页，共44页。货币供给货币供给(gngj)的变动的变动Changes in the Money Supplyu美联储可通过改变货币政策，使总需求曲线移动。u The Fed can shift the aggregate demand curve when it changes monetary policy. u货币供给的增加使货币供给曲线向右移动u An increase in the money supply shifts the money supply curve to the right.u货币需求曲线没有下降，利率下降。u Without a change in the money demand curve, the interest rate falls.u利率下降增加了产品(chnpn)与劳务需求量。uFalling interest rates increase the quantity of goods and services demanded.第16页/共43页第十六页，共44页。Y2AD23. 这增加了既定物价水平时的物品与劳务需求量 1. 当美联储增加货币供给时MS2货币货币(hub)注入注入A Monetary Injection.Y1P产量产量(chnling)0Price LevelAggregate demand, AD1 (a) 货币货币(hub)市场市场货币量货币量0货币供给货币供给, MS1r1Interest Rate(b) 总需求曲线总需求曲线r22. 均衡利率因此下降第17页/共43页第十七页，共44页。货币货币(hub)供给的变动供给的变动Changes in the Money Supplyu当美联储增加货币供给时，在既定的物价水平下，它使得(sh de)利率下降，而产品与劳务需求量增加，因此总需求曲线向右移动。u When the Fed increases the money supply, it lowers the interest rate and increases the quantity of goods and services demanded at any given price level, shifting aggregate-demand to the right.u当美联储减少货币供给时，在既定的物价水平下，它使得(sh de)利率提高，而产品与劳务需求量减少，因此总需求曲线向左移动。u When the Fed contracts the money supply, it raises the interest rate and reduces the quantity of goods and services demanded at any given price level, shifting aggregate-demand to the left.第18页/共43页第十八页，共44页。利率目标利率目标(mbio)在美联储政策在美联储政策中作用中作用The Role of Interest-Rate Targets in Fed Policyu货币政策既可以根据货币供给描述，也可以根据利率来描述u Monetary policy can be described either in terms of the money supply or in terms of the interest rate.u货币政策的变动(bindng)既可以货币供给的变动(bindng)说明，也可以根据不断变动(bindng)利率目标来说明。u Changes in monetary policy can be viewed either in terms of a changing target for the interest rate or in terms of a change in the money supply.u联邦基金利率目标会影响货币市场均衡，这也影响到总需求u A target for the federal funds rate affects the money market equilibrium, which influences aggregate demand.第19页/共43页第十九页，共44页。财政政策如何影响财政政策如何影响(yngxing)社会社会总需求总需求How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demandu财政政策是指政府(zhngf)对政府(zhngf)购买或税收总水平的选择。u Fiscal policy refers to the governments choices regarding the overall level of government purchases or taxes.u在长期中，财政政策会储蓄、投资和增长。u Fiscal policy influences saving, investment, and growth in the long run.u在短期中，财政政策主要影响总需求。u In the short run, fiscal policy primarily affects the aggregate demand.第20页/共43页第二十页，共44页。政府购买政府购买(gumi)的变动的变动Changes in Government Purchasesu当决策(juc)者改变货币供给或税收水平时，通过企业或家庭的支出决策(juc)而间接影响总需求。u When policymakers change the money supply or taxes, the effect on aggregate demand is indirect through the spending decisions of firms or households.u当政府改变其自己的产品与劳务的购买时，它就直接使总需求曲线移动。u When the government alters its own purchases of goods or services, it shifts the aggregate-demand curve directly.第21页/共43页第二十一页，共44页。政府政府(zhngf)购买的变动购买的变动Changes in Government Purchasesu有两种宏观经济效应来自于政府购买的变动(bindng)：u There are two macroeconomic effects from the change in government purchases: u乘数效应 The multiplier effectu挤出效应 The crowding-out effect第22页/共43页第二十二页，共44页。乘数乘数(chn sh)效应效应The Multiplier Effectu政府购买对总需求有一种乘数效应(xioyng)。u Government purchases are said to have a multiplier effect on aggregate demand.u政府支出的每一美元可以增加的物品与劳务的总需求大于1美元。u Each dollar spent by the government can raise the aggregate demand for goods and services by more than a dollar.第23页/共43页第二十三页，共44页。乘数乘数(chn sh)效应效应The Multiplier Effect.总需求总需求, AD1 产量产量(chnling)0PriceLevelAD2 1. 政府购买增加200亿美元最初使总需求增加200亿美元$20 billionAD3 2. 但乘数效应可以扩大总需求的移动第24页/共43页第二十四页，共44页。支出乘数支出乘数(chn sh)的公式的公式A Formula for the Spending Multiplieru乘数公式为：u The formula for the multiplier is:uMultiplier = 1/(1 - MPC)u在这个公式中，一个重要的数字是边际消费倾向（MPC）u An important number in this formula is the marginal propensity to consume (MPC).u它代表家庭额外收入(shur)中用于消费而不用于储蓄的比例u It is the fraction of extra income that a household consumes rather than saves.第25页/共43页第二十五页，共44页。支出支出(zhch)乘数的公式乘数的公式A Formula for the Spending Multiplieru假如MPC是3/4，那么乘数将是4。u If the MPC is 3/4, then the multiplier will be:uMultiplier = 1/(1 - 3/4) = 4u在该例中，政府支出(zhch)增加200亿将引起800亿美元的物品与劳务需求。u In this case, a $20 billion increase in government spending generates $80 billion of increased demand for goods and services.第26页/共43页第二十六页，共44页。挤出挤出(j ch)效应效应The Crowding-Out Effectu财政政策对经济产生的可能影响，并不象乘数法预测的如此大。u Fiscal policy may not affect the economy as strongly as predicted by the multiplier.u政府购买的增加引起利率的增加。u An increase in government purchases causes the interest rate to rise.u较高的利率降低了投资(tu z)支出。u A higher interest rate reduces investment spending.第27页/共43页第二十七页，共44页。挤出挤出(j ch)效应效应The Crowding-Out Effectu财政扩张使利率上升时所引起的总需求减少被称为挤出效应。u This reduction in demand that results when a fiscal expansion raises the interest rate is called the crowding-out effect.u挤出效应有使财政政策(ci zhn zhn c)对总需求的影响弱化的趋势。u The crowding-out effect tends to dampen the effects of fiscal policy on aggregate demand.第28页/共43页第二十八页，共44页。AD3 4. 又部分抵消了总需求最初的增加.挤出挤出(j ch)效应效应The Crowding-Out Effect总需求总需求, AD1(b) 总需求的移动总需求的移动(ydng)Quantity of Output0Price Level(a) 货币货币(hub)市场市场Quantity of MoneyQuantity fixed by the Fed0r1货币需求货币需求, MD1 Money supply利率利率1. 政府购买增加提高了总需求AD2 $20 billion3. 这使均衡利率上升r2MD2 2. 支出增加提高了货币需求第29页/共43页第二十九页，共44页。挤出挤出(j ch)效应效应The Crowding-Out Effect当政府增加200亿美元的购买时，物品与劳务总需求的增加可以大于或小于200亿美元，这取决于乘数效应和挤出(j ch)效应作用的强弱。When the government increases its purchases by $20 billion, the aggregate demand for goods and services could rise by more or less than $20 billion, depending on whether the multiplier effect or the crowding-out effect is larger.第30页/共43页第三十页，共44页。税收税收(shushu)变动变动Changes in Taxesu当政府减少个人所得税时，它就增加了家庭可以拿回家的工资。u When the government cuts personal income taxes, it increases households take-home pay.u家庭把一部分额外收入储蓄(chx)u Households save some of this additional income.u家庭也花掉一部分用于消费品。u Households also spend some of it on consumer goods.u家庭支出的增加使总需求曲线向右移动。u Increased household spending shifts the aggregate-demand curve to the right.第31页/共43页第三十一页，共44页。税收税收(shushu)变动变动Changes in Taxesu税收变动引起(ynq)的总需求移动的幅度也要受乘数效应和挤出效应的影响。u The size of the shift in aggregate demand resulting from a tax change is affected by the multiplier and crowding-out effects.u它也由家庭对税收变动持久性的感觉决定。u It is also determined by the households perceptions about the permanency of the tax change.第32页/共43页第三十二页，共44页。运用运用(ynyng)政策来稳定经济政策来稳定经济Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy自从1946年的“就业法案：颁行以来，经济稳定一直(yzh)是美国政策公开的目标。Economic stabilization has been an explicit goal of U.S. policy since the Employment Act of 1946.第33页/共43页第三十三页，共44页。支持支持(zhch)积极的稳定政策积极的稳定政策The Case for Active Stabilization Policy就业法案由两个政策含义：The Employment Act has two implications:政府应该避免成为经济( jngj)波动的原因。 The government should avoid being the cause of economic fluctuations.政府应该对私人经济( jngj)中的变动作出反应以便稳定总需求。 The government should respond to changes in the private economy in order to stabilize aggregate demand.第34页/共43页第三十四页，共44页。反对积极稳定反对积极稳定(wndng)政策论政策论The Case Against Active Stabilization Policyu一些经济学家声称，货币和财政政策会影响(yngxing)经济稳定。u Some economists argue that monetary and fiscal policy destabilizes the economy.u货币与财政政策对经济的影响(yngxing)有相当长的时滞u Monetary and fiscal policy affect the economy with a substantial lag.u他们建议，让经济靠自己的力量去克服短期波动。u They suggest the economy should be left to deal with the short-run fluctuations on its own.第35页/共43页第三十五页，共44页。自动自动(zdng)稳定器稳定器Automatic Stabilizersu自动稳定器是在经济进入衰退时决策者不采取任何有意的行动就可以刺激总需求的财政政策变动。u Automatic stabilizers are changes in fiscal policy that stimulate aggregate demand when the economy goes into a recession without policymakers having to take any deliberate action.u自动稳定器包括(boku)税制与某种形式的政府支出。Automatic stabilizers include the tax system and some forms of government spending.第36页/共43页第三十六页，共44页。总结总结(zngji)Summaryu凯恩斯提出(t ch)了流动性偏好理论来解释利率的决定因素。u Keynes proposed the theory of liquidity preference to explain determinants of the interest rate.u根基这种理论，利率的调整使货币的供求平衡。u According to this theory, the interest rate adjusts to balance the supply and demand for money.第37页/共43页第三十七页，共44页。总结总结(zngji)Summaryu物价水平上升增加了货币需求，提高了利率。u An increase in the price level raises money demand and increases the interest rate.u较高的利率减少了投资，从而减少了物品与劳务的需求量。u A higher interest rate reduces investment and, thereby, the quantity of goods and services demanded.u向右下方倾斜的总需求曲线(qxin)表明了物价水平与需求量之间的这种负相关关系。u The downward-sloping aggregate-demand curve expresses this negative relationship between the price-level and the quantity demanded.第38页/共43页第三十八页，共44页。总结总结(zngji)Summaryu决策者可以用货币政策影响总需求。u Policymakers can influence aggregate demand with monetary policy.u货币供给的增加将最终使总需求曲线(qxin)向右移动 。u An increase in the money supply will ultimately lead to the aggregate-demand curve shifting to the right.u货币供给的下降将最终导致总需求曲线(qxin)向左移动u A decrease in the money supply will ultimately lead to the aggregate-demand curve shifting to the left.第39页/共43页第三十九页，共44页。总结总结(zngji)Summaryu决策者还可以用财政政策影响总需求。 Policymakers can influence aggregate demand with fiscal policy.u政府购买(gumi)增加或减税使总需求曲线向左移动。u An increase in government purchases or a cut in taxes shifts the aggregate-demand curve to the right.u政度购买(gumi)的减少或增税使总需求曲线向左移动。u A decrease in government purchases or an increase in taxes shifts the aggregate-demand curve to the left.第40页/共43页第四十页，共44页。总结总结(zngji)Summaryu当政府(zhngf)改变支出或税收时，所引起的总需求变动可能大于或小于财政变动。u When the government alters spending or taxes, the resulting shift in aggregate demand can be larger or smaller than the fiscal change.u乘数效应倾向于扩大财政政策对总需求的影响。u The multiplier effect tends to amplify the effects of fiscal policy on aggregate demand.u挤出效应减少财政政策对总需求的影响。u The crowding-out effect tends to dampen the effects of fiscal policy on aggregate demand.第41页/共43页第四十一页，共44页。总结总结(zngji)Summaryu由于货币和财政政策可以总需求，因此政府有时用这些政策来努力稳定经济(jngj)。u Because monetary and fiscal policy can influence aggregate demand, the government sometimes uses these policy instruments in an attempt to stabilize the economy.u经济(jngj)学家对政府应该如何积极地进行这种努力的看法并不一致。u Economists disagree about how active the government should be in this effort.u政策支持者认为，假如政府不作反应，结果将是不合意的波动。u Policy advocates say that if the government does not respond the result will be undesirable fluctuations.u批评者认为稳定经济(jngj)的努力以不稳定告终。u Critics argue that attempts at stabilization often turn out destabilizing.第42页/共43页第四十二页，共44页。感谢您的欣赏(xnshng)！第43页/共43页第四十三页，共44页。NoImage内容(nirng)总结总需求Aggregate Demand。货币需求曲线没有下降，利率下降。当决策者改变货币供给或税收水平时，通过企业或家庭的支出决策而间接影响总需求。它代表家庭额外收入中用于消费(xiofi)而不用于储蓄的比例。批评者认为稳定经济的努力以不稳定告终。感谢您的欣赏第四十四页，共44页。