管理学罗宾斯第11版07

Copyright 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Management, Eleventh Edition by Stephen P. Robbins & Mary Coulter2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved7-1 Copyright 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Management, Eleventh Edition by Stephen P. Robbins & Mary Coulter2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved7-2 Describe the eight steps in the decision- making process Explain the four ways managers make decisions Classify decisions and decision-making conditions Classify decisions and decision-making conditions Identify effective decision-making techniquesCopyright 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Management, Eleventh Edition by Stephen P. Robbins & Mary Coulter2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved7-3 Decision Making Decision - making a choice from two or more alternatives. Problem - an obstacle that makes it difficult to achieve a desired goal or purpose.Copyright 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Management, Eleventh Edition by Stephen P. Robbins & Mary Coulter2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved7-4 The Decision Making Process1. Identifying a problem and decision criteria and allocating weights to the criteria2. Developing, analyzing, and selecting an alternative that can resolve the problem3. Implementing the selected alternative4. Evaluating the decisions effectivenessCopyright 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Management, Eleventh Edition by Stephen P. Robbins & Mary Coulter2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved7-5 Exhibit 7-1: Decision-Making ProcessCopyright 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Management, Eleventh Edition by Stephen P. Robbins & Mary Coulter2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved7-6 Step 1: Identifying a Problem Characteristics of Problems A problem becomes a problem when a manager becomes aware of it. There is pressure to solve the problem. The manager must have the authority, information, or resources needed to solve the problem.Copyright 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Management, Eleventh Edition by Stephen P. Robbins & Mary Coulter2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved7-7 Step 2: Identifying Decision Criteria Decision criteria are factors that are important (relevant) to resolving the problem, such as: Costs that will be incurred (investments required) Risks likely to be encountered (chance of failure) Outcomes that are desired (growth of the firm)Copyright 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Management, Eleventh Edition by Stephen P. Robbins & Mary Coulter2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved7-8 Exhibit 7-2: Important Decision CriteriaCopyright 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Management, Eleventh Edition by Stephen P. Robbins & Mary Coulter2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved7-9 Step 3: Allocating Weights to the Criteria Decision criteria are not of equal importance: Assigning a weight to each item places the items in the correct priority order of their importance in the decision-making process.Copyright 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Management, Eleventh Edition by Stephen P. Robbins & Mary Coulter2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved7-10 Step 4: Developing Alternatives Identifying viable alternatives Alternatives are listed (without evaluation) that can resolve the problem.Copyright 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Management, Eleventh Edition by Stephen P. Robbins & Mary Coulter2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved7-11 Exhibit 7-3: Possible AlternativesCopyright 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Management, Eleventh Edition by Stephen P. Robbins & Mary Coulter2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved7-12 Step 5: Analyzing Alternatives Appraising each alternatives strengths and weaknessesAn alternatives appraisal is based on its ability to resolve the issues related to the criteria and criteria weight.Copyright 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Management, Eleventh Edition by Stephen P. Robbins & Mary Coulter2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved7-13 Exhibit 7-4: Evaluation of AlternativesCopyright 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Management, Eleventh Edition by Stephen P. Robbins & Mary Coulter2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved7-14 Step 6: Selecting an Alternative Choosing the best alternative The alternative with the highest total weight is chosen.Copyright 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Management, Eleventh Edition by Stephen P. Robbins & Mary Coulter2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved7-15 Step 7: Implementing the Alternative Putting the chosen alternative into action- Conveying the decision to and gaining commitment from those who will carry out the alternativeCopyright 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Management, Eleventh Edition by Stephen P. Robbins & Mary Coulter2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved7-16 Step 8: Evaluating Decision Effectiveness The soundness of the decision is judged by its outcomes. How effectively was the problem resolved by outcomes resulting from the chosen alternatives? If the problem was not resolved, what went wrong?Copyright 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Management, Eleventh Edition by Stephen P. Robbins & Mary Coulter2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved7-17 Exhibit 7-5: Decisions Managers May Make Copyright 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Management, Eleventh Edition by Stephen P. Robbins & Mary Coulter2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved7-18 Rational Decision-Making Rational Decision-Making - describes choices that are logical and consistent while maximizing value. Bounded Rationality - decision making thats rational, but limited (bounded) by an individuals ability to process information. Satisfice - accepting solutions that are “good enough.”Copyright 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Management, Eleventh Edition by Stephen P. Robbins & Mary Coulter2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved7-19 Intuitive Decision-Making Intuitive decision- making Making decisions on the basis of experience, feelings, and accumulated judgment.Copyright 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Management, Eleventh Edition by Stephen P. Robbins & Mary Coulter2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved7-20 Exhibit 7-6: What Is Intuition?Copyright 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Management, Eleventh Edition by Stephen P. Robbins & Mary Coulter2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved7-21 Programmed vs. Non-Programmed Decisions Programmed Decision - a repetitive decision that can be handled by a routine approach. Non-programmed Decisions - unique and nonrecurring decisions that require a custom-made solution.Copyright 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Management, Eleventh Edition by Stephen P. Robbins & Mary Coulter2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved7-22 Types of Programmed Decisions Procedure - a series of interrelated steps that a manager can use to apply a policy in response to a structured problem. Rule - an explicit statement that limits what a manager or employee can or cannot do. Policy - a general guideline for making a decision about a structured problem.Copyright 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Management, Eleventh Edition by Stephen P. Robbins & Mary Coulter2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved7-23 Exhibit 7-7: Programmed VersusNon-programmed DecisionsCopyright 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Management, Eleventh Edition by Stephen P. Robbins & Mary Coulter2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved7-24 Types of Problems Structured Problems - straightforward, familiar, and easily defined problems. Unstructured Problems - problems that are new or unusual and for which information is ambiguous or incomplete.Copyright 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Management, Eleventh Edition by Stephen P. Robbins & Mary Coulter2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved7-25 Decision-Making Situations Certainty a situation in which a manager can make an accurate decision because the outcome of every alternative choice is known. Risk a situation in which the manager is able to estimate the likelihood (probability) of outcomes that result from the choice of particular alternatives.Copyright 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Management, Eleventh Edition by Stephen P. Robbins & Mary Coulter2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved7-26 Exhibit 7-8: Expected ValueCopyright 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Management, Eleventh Edition by Stephen P. Robbins & Mary Coulter2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved7-27 Decisions Under Uncertainty Limited information prevents estimation of outcome probabilities for alternatives . Limited information forces managers to rely on intuition, hunches, and “gut feelings.” Maximax: the optimistic managers choice to maximize the maximum payoff. Maximin: the pessimistic managers choice to maximize the minimum payoff. Minimax: the managers choice to minimize maximum regret.Copyright 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Management, Eleventh Edition by Stephen P. Robbins & Mary Coulter2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved7-28 Exhibit 7-9: Payoff MatrixCopyright 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Management, Eleventh Edition by Stephen P. Robbins & Mary Coulter2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved7-29 Exhibit 7-10: Regret MatrixCopyright 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Management, Eleventh Edition by Stephen P. Robbins & Mary Coulter2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved7-30 Decision-Making Styles Linear Thinking Style - a persons tendency to use external data/facts; the habit of processing information through rational, logical thinking. Nonlinear Thinking Style - a persons preference for internal sources of information; a method of processing this information with internal insights, feelings, and hunches.Copyright 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Management, Eleventh Edition by Stephen P. Robbins & Mary Coulter2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved7-31 Decision-Making Biases and Errors Heuristics - using “rules of thumb” to simplify decision making. Overconfidence Bias - holding unrealistically positive views of oneself and ones performance. Immediate Gratification Bias - choosing alternatives that offer immediate rewards and avoid immediate costs.Copyright 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Management, Eleventh Edition by Stephen P. Robbins & Mary Coulter2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved7-32 Decision-Making Biases and Errors (cont.) Anchoring Effect - fixating on initial information and ignoring subsequent information. Selective Perception Bias - selecting, organizing and interpreting events based on the decision makers biased perceptions. Confirmation Bias - seeking out information that reaffirms past choices while discounting contradictory information.Copyright 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Management, Eleventh Edition by Stephen P. Robbins & Mary Coulter2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved7-33 Decision-Making Biases and Errors (cont.) Framing Bias - selecting and highlighting certain aspects of a situation while ignoring other aspects. Availability Bias - losing decision-making objectivity by focusing on the most recent events. Representation Bias - drawing analogies and seeing identical situations when none exist. Randomness Bias - creating unfounded meaning out of random events.Copyright 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Management, Eleventh Edition by Stephen P. Robbins & Mary Coulter2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved7-34 Decision-Making Biases and Errors (cont.) Sunk Costs Errors - forgetting that current actions cannot influence past events and relate only to future consequences. Self-Serving Bias - taking quick credit for successes and blaming outside factors for failures. Hindsight Bias - mistakenly believing that an event could have been predicted once the actual outcome is known (after-the-fact).Copyright 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Management, Eleventh Edition by Stephen P. Robbins & Mary Coulter2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved7-35 Exhibit 7-10: Common Decision-Making Biases Copyright 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Management, Eleventh Edition by Stephen P. Robbins & Mary Coulter2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved7-36 Decision Making for Todays World Guidelines for making effective decisions: Understand cultural differences Know when its time to call it quits Use an effective decision making process Habits of highly reliable organizations (HROs) Are not tricked by their success Defer to the experts on the front line Let unexpected circumstances provide the solution Embrace complexity Anticipate, but also anticipate their limitsCopyright 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Management, Eleventh Edition by Stephen P. Robbins & Mary Coulter2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved7-37 Exhibit 7-12: Overview of Managerial Decision MakingCopyright 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Management, Eleventh Edition by Stephen P. Robbins & Mary Coulter2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved7-38 Terms to Know Decision criteria Rational decision making Bounded rationality Satisfice Escalation of commitment Intuitive decision making Evidence-based management (EBMgt) Structured problems Programmed decision Procedure Rule Policy Unstructured problems Nonprogrammed decisions Risk Linear thinking style Nonlinear thinking style HeuristicsCopyright 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Management, Eleventh Edition by Stephen P. Robbins & Mary Coulter2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved7-39