当前宏观经济金融形势与政策解析(XXXX1023)

Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,*,当前宏观经,济,济金融形势,与,与政策解析,主讲人：王,维,维安,1,王 维 安,教,教 授,简,简 介,浙江大学金,融,融研究所所,长,长、经济学,院,院教授、博,士,士生导师,西安交通大,学,学经济学博,士,士,中国金融学,会,会理事,中国人民银,行,行杭州中心,支,支行货币信,贷,贷政策咨询,专,专家,浙江省高等,院,院校优秀青,年,年教师、霍,英,英东教育基,金,金奖获得者,2,引言：危机,中,中政府纷纷,通,通过两大政,策,策救市,宽松货币政,策,策,通,通货,膨,膨胀与资产,泡,泡沫,财政赤字政,策,策,通,通,货,货紧缩与债,务,务危机,货币市场,商品市场,资本市场,3,4,隐患之一：,复,复苏之后会,不,不会引发严,重,重通货膨胀,？,？,4,5,面对危机各,国,国货币政策,从,从降息到量,化,化宽松,2008,年,9,月，随着金,融,融危机从局,部,部发展到全,球,球，从发达,国,国家传导到,新,新兴市场经,济,济体和发展,中,中国家，从,金,金融领域扩,散,散到实体经,济,济领域，全,球,球主要经济,体,体相继降息,以,以刺激经济,。,。,2009,年以来，美,国,国、日本、,英,英国、瑞士,、,、欧央行等,国,国的中央银,行,行在下调政,策,策利率接近,零,零的情况下,，,，进一步采,取,取了以量化,宽,宽松为特点,的,的非常规货,币,币政策，通,过,过在二级市,场,场上购买包,括,括国债在内,的,的中长期债,券,券等措施继,续,续向市场注,入,入大量流动,性,性，以增加,基,基础货币供,给,给。,各国央行将,利,利率降到历,史,史低位,5,美国二次量,化,化宽松：美,元,元基础货币,泛,泛滥发行,美联储,2009,年,3,月,18,日宣布未来,6,个月将购买,3000,亿美元的,2,至,10,年期美国国,债,债，以及到,2010,年,3,月购买,7500,亿美元,MBS,债券，以及,1750,亿美元机构,债,债。,2010,年,8月,美联储,议息会议决,定,定重启量化,宽,宽松,，,11,月,3,日的议息会,议,议宣布将在,2011,年第二季度,前,前购买,6000,亿美元长期,国,国债，每月,增,增发,750,亿美元基础,货,货币。,6,美元去年,3,月以来开始,贬,贬值,第一轮购买,宣布二次,量化宽松,7,8,美元贬值导,致,致美元商品,价,价格大幅上,涨,涨,8,今天为何美,元,元未创新低,？,？,流通中或社,会,会大众手上,的,的货币从哪,里,里来？,中央,银,银行,社会,大,大众,商业,银,银行,基础,货,货币,流通,货,货币,M1M2,9,美国,经,经济,复,复苏,之,之时,必,必是,美,美元,真,真正,泛,泛滥,之,之日,10,美国,去,去年,四,四季,度,度经,济,济加,速,速复,苏,苏,11,美国,银,银行,信,信贷,也,也开,始,始解,冻,冻,12,欧日,等,等大,部,部分,国,国家,也,也在,增,增发,基,基础,货,货币,13,14,中国,一,一样,在,在增,发,发货,币,币：,新,新增,贷,贷款,+,新增,外,外汇,占,占款,14,国内,货,货币,增,增长,创,创历,史,史新,高,高,11,年,1,月,10,年,12,月,10,年,11,月,10,年,10,月,10,年,9,月,10,年,8,月,10,年,7,月,10,年,6,月,10,年,5,月,10,年,4,月,10,年,3,月,10,年,2,月,10,年,1,月,09,年,12,月,08,年,12,月,M2,余额,(,万亿元,),73.56,72.58,71.03,69.88,69.64,68.75,67.41,67.39,66.34,65.66,65.00,63.60,62.51,60.62,47.51,当月新增（亿元）,0.98,1.42,1.15,0.24,0.89,1.34,0.02,1.05,0.68,0.66,1.40,1.09,1.89,1.16,7.17,同比增速（,%,）,17.2,19.7,19.5,19.3,19.0,19.2,17.6,18.5,21,21.48,22.50,25.52,25.98,27.68,17.77,M1,余额,(,亿元,),26.31,26.66,25.94,25.33,24.38,24.43,24.07,24.06,23.65,23.39,22.94,22.43,22.96,22.00,16.62,当月新增（亿元）,-0.35,0.72,0.61,0.95,-0.05,0.36,0.01,0.41,0.26,0.45,0.51,-0.53,0.96,0.75,1.37,同比增速（,%,）,13.6,21.2,22.1,22.1,20.9,21.9,22.9,24.6,29.9,31.25,29.94,34.99,38.96,32.35,8.98,M1-M2,-3.6,1.5,2.6,2.8,1.9,2.7,5.3,6.1,8.9,9.77,7.44,9.47,12.98,4.87,-8.79,贷款余额,(,万亿元,),48.35,47.92,47.43,46.87,46.28,45.68,45.14,44.61,43.99,43.35,42.58,42.07,41.37,39.96,30.34,当月新增,(,亿元,),10400,4807,5640,5877,5955,5452,5328,6034,6394,7740,5107,7001,13917,3798,7645,同比增速（,%,）,18.5,19.9,19.8,19.53,18.5,18.6,18.4,18.2,21.5,21.9,21.8,27.2,29.3,31.7,18.76,15,人民,币,币不,贬,贬反,而,而升,值,值？,日期,美元,欧元,日元,港币,英镑,2011-2-18,6.5781,8.9544,7.8936,0.8447,10.6394,2011-1-21,6.5886,8.8765,7.9424,0.8464,10.4808,2010-12-31,6.6227,8.8065,8.1260,0.8509,10.2182,2010-12-15,6.6566,8.8936,7.9382,0.8562,10.4921,2010-12-1,6.6786,8.6718,7.9864,0.8599,10.3986,2010-11-19,6.6303,9.0875,8.0362,0.8554,10.6950,2010-10-19,6.6553,9.3014,8.1957,0.8579,10.5916,2010-10-13,6.6693,9.2940,8.1477,0.8595,10.5255,2010-9-17,6.7172,8.7754,7.8348,0.8649,10.4822,2010-9-10,6.7625,8.5752,8.0425,0.87040,10.4217,2010-9-1,8126,8.6333,8.0847,0.87574,10.4522,2010-8-25,6.8007,8.6049,8.0606,0.87448,10.4884,2010-8-10,6.7745,8.9406,7.8732,0.87276,10.7457,2010-7-27,6.7742,8.7970,7.7914,0.87222,10.4905,2010-7-16,6.7718,8.7495,7.7458,0.87150,10.4452,2010-7-1,6.7858,8.2933,7.6780,0.87139,10.1488,2010-6-30,6.7909,8.2710,7.6686,0.87239,10.2135,2010-6-24,6.8100,8.3964,7.5742,0.87557,10.2007,2010-6-21,6.8275,8.4825,7.5500,0.87856,10.1382,2010-6-18,6.8275,8.4538,7.5151,0.87686,10.1139,16,本币,升,升值,带,带来,资,资本,市,市场,大,大牛,市,市,17,日本,的,的经,验,验,日元,汇,汇率,升,升值,18,日本,的,的经,验,验,但股,价,价与,地,地价,反,反而,大,大涨,19,当今,为,为什,么,么还,没,没膨,胀,胀出,来,来？,总需,求,求,总,总,供,供给,货币,供,供应,量,量（,M,）*,货,货币,流,流通,速,速度,（,（,V,）,=,商品,数,数量,（,（,T,）*,价,价格,水,水平,（,（,P,）,政策,面,面,基本,面,面,20,21,隐患,之,之二,：,：日,益,益严,重,重的,主,主权,债,债务,能,能否,持,持续,？,？,21,后危,机,机时,代,代全,球,球主,权,权债,务,务风,险,险日,渐,渐显,露,露,国家,政府负债,/GDP,财政余额,/GDP,基本财政余额,/GDP,主权债务评级,希腊,126,-15.4,-7.7,BB+,爱尔兰,66,-14.4,-10.2,AA,西班牙,54,-11.2,-9.4,AA+,葡萄牙,77,-9.3,-5.0,AA-,意大利,115,-5.3,-0.5,A+,法国,76,-7.5,-5.5,AAA,德国,73,-7.5,-0.6,AAA,英国,69,-12.1,-10.2,AAA,美国,56,-11.3,-8.6,AAA,日本,189,-8.0,-5.3,AA,22,希腊,是,是欧,元,元区,内,内财,政,政最,为,为脆,弱,弱的,成,成员,国,国,希腊,是,是欧,元,元区,财,财政,最,最为,脆,脆弱,的,的成,员,员国,，,，主,权,权债,务,务风,险,险超,过,过部,分,分新,兴,兴欧,洲,洲国,家,家。,希,希腊,政,政府,偿,偿债,能,能力,的,的脆,弱,弱性,主,主要,体,体现,在,在以,下,下两,个,个方,面,面：,希腊,政,政府,债,债务,的,的存,量,量和,流,流量,占,占,GDP,比重,分,分别,达,达,125%,和,15.4%,，均,为,为欧,元,元区,最,最高,之,之列,。,。,希腊,政,政府,债,债务,中,中约,70%,为外,债,债，,而,而希,腊,腊的,官,官方,储,储备,相,相当,有,有限,，,，且,无,无法,通,通过,货,货币,贬,贬值,的,的手,段,段来,减,减轻,债,债务,负,负担,。,。希,腊,腊政,府,府目,前,前总,外,外债,2980,亿美,元,元，,2010,年的,总,总融,资,资需,求,求约,750,亿美,元,元（,包,包括,短,短期,外,外债,约,约,96,亿美,元,元）,，,，而,其,其官,方,方储,备,备资,产,产规,模,模只,有,有区,区,区,1.6,亿美,元,元，,仅,仅能,覆,覆盖,总,总外,债,债不,到,到,0.1%,的水,平,平（,短,短期,外,外债,不,不到,2%,），,为,为欧,元,元区,国,国家,中,中最,低,低。,希腊,已,已在,2010,年,5,月和,9,月分,别,别获,得,得,200,亿和,90,亿欧,元,元贷,款,款，,第,第三,批,批,90,亿欧,元,元贷,款,款将,在,在今,年,年,1,月到,位,位。,23,欧洲,债,债务,危,危机,第,第一,轮,轮：,2010,年,5,月与,7,月（,希,希腊,）,）,24,欧盟,7500,亿欧,元,元救,市,市能,否,否解,决,决债,务,务危,机,机问,题,题？,25,欧洲,债,债务,危,危机,第,第二,轮,轮：,2010,年,11,月（,爱,爱尔,兰,兰）,爱尔,兰,兰财,政,政赤,字,字,200,亿欧,元,元，,加,加上,银,银行,系,系统,500,亿欧,元,元的,债,债务,，