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Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,*,Will ChineseStockMarketsMirrorthe BehaviouroftheNASDAQ?,-,Whereisthesolution?,ChristopherPoll,Chairman,Greater China Consultancy Ltd.,3 QUESTIONSRAISED,HOWTODEFINE A,“,“WELLREGULATED MARKET”?,WHAT RELEVANCEA PRICE/EARNINGS RATIO?,IFINSTITUTIONAL FUNDS AREA STABILISING FACTORFORTHE STOCK MARKET,WHY AREDEVELOPEDMARKETSSOVOLATILE?,HOWTODEFINE A,“,“WELLREGULATED MARKET”?,TheFinancial Marketsare Dynamic,Businessis,“,“Proactive”,ButRegulatorsare,“,“Reactive”not,“,“Proactive,TheSystem of Regulationand Enforcement canneverbecompletely Flexible andDynamic,Importance of FiduciaryResponsibility,FinancialInfrastructure,MAIN FACTORSFOR FUNDS,Government,Financial,Policemen,Institutional,Managers,Centred around,Public,Investors,PRIVATE SECTOR,Lawyers,Accountants,Investment,Bankers,Stock,Brokers,Commercial,Banks,ConflictofInterest?,ConflictofInterest,Whoisthe client?,Whoare theFinancialPoliceman Responsible to?,CanRegulationbeProtect withFinancial PolicemenbeingProactive?,INVESTORS,Institutional,Private,Pensions,Insurance,MutualFunds,Investors,Confidence=InvestorsEducation,Confidence,Education,I,n,v,e,s,t,o,r,s,InvestorProtection/Confidence,Easier and moreeffective enforcement.,Increased efficiencyreducescosts.,Improvedflexibilityoftheinfrastructure to respond effectively and competitively.,Efficient InfrastructureTransparencyAccountability,Leads to:,A Chinese TailorMade Solution for the,ChineseFundIndustry,Investors,behaviour,Stock Investors,Fund,Investors,Securities,Dealers,Brokers,Securities,Investment,Advisors,Fund,Managers,Securities,Exchange,OTC,Futures,Exchange,SEC/CSRC,CBC/PBC,WHATRELEVANCE APRICE/EARNINGSRATIO?,ChineseQuoted,Stocks Corporate,Profits,?,NASDAQ,Corporate Profits,?,Confidence,$,1995-2000,C,$,IF CONFIDENCE ISLOW,THENMONEY FLOWIS MINUTE,CONFIDENCE,$,IF CONFIDENCE ISHIGH,THENMONEY FLOWIS LARGE,WhatistheCriteriaForInvesting?,1.,Whatdoyouthink isthemost importantinfluence onthestock market inChinatoday?,Thehistoricbalancesheetsandprofit and lossaccountsofthequotedcompanies,-,6,Thefuture prospectsforcorporate earnings-10,Government policy-62,Gov,t.,investigation into mal practices15,Theoveralleconomicgrowthof the Chinese economy-27,Chinasentry into the WTO-8,2.,Howdo you as aninvestor analyse the fair valueofthecompanies you buy,&,sell?,By priceearnings ratio-35,By relationshipto net assetvale-5,By the latest rumour-58,By the businesssector the company is involved in-21,By multipleof salesrevenue-9,3.,Whatdoyouthink shouldbetheaverageprospectiveprice earnings ratiofornon-technology stocks?,under 15times-0,15 to 25times-18,above 25-110,4,.,Whatdoyouthink shouldbetheaverageprospectiveprice earnings ratio,?,under 15times-0,15 to 25times-1,25 to 50-16,over50-111,5,.,Howdo you measure investment risk?,By measuringthevolatilityof the stock-31,By measuringthevolatilityof the stockmarket-42,By estimating the accuracy of disclosedinformation-16,By estimating the risk of fraud-17,By analysinghistoric returns-13,By comparingwith and adjustingfora riskfree measure such as adepositrate-8,At whatlevel doyouthink the ShanghaiA sharemarket willbe on 31,st,December2001?,mostthink it will be above2500,Today itis2140,At whatlevel doyouthink the ShanghaiB sharemarket willbe on 31st December2001?,mostthink it will be above200,Today itis183,IF INSTITUTIONALFUNDS ARE ASTABILISINGFACTORFORTHESTOCK MARKET,WHY ARE DEVELOPEDMARKETSSO VOLATILE?,FactorsEffecting InvestmentTime Horizons,Confidence in Long TermTrends,Confidence in Information Disclosure,Volatility of Markets,Liquidity ofMarkets,Profit Forecast,Public Scrutinyof Performance,EACM100:EqualWeighted(RebalancedAnnually)IndexofHedge Fund Indices describedonPreviousSlide,China versusWesternMarkets,Limitedsense ofAccountability,Little UnderstandingofRisk,ChineseBusinessPhilosophy,Reluctance to Incentivise ExecutiveManagers,Entrepreneurs UnderstandCause&Consequence,RiskisFully Understood,ShareholderAccountability is accepted,Share Options and ProfitIncentives,FUNDCOMPANY,REGULATOR,POLICEMEN,FUND,CUSTODIAN,BENEFICIARY,CERTIFICATE,INVESTORS,ASSETS,MONEY,BasicConcept of Funds as an InvestmentVehicle,
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