管理学原理Ch5 Decision Making

,单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,*,Ch5 Decision Making:The Essence of the Manager,s Job,彼得,德鲁克（,Peter Druker,）：,“,这个世纪最重要的事情不是,技术或网络,的革新，而是人类生存状况的重大改变。在这个世纪里，人将拥有更多的选择，他们必须积极地管理自己。”,巴菲特：,“,投资并不只是一个关于智商的游戏，如果你的智商超过了,150,，那么你可以把其中的,30,卖给别人，因为你并不需要过高的智商，过高的智商在某些时候会对你造成伤害。但是你同时需要足够的情商和判断力，因为你会听到各种不同的建议，你需要从中筛选，最终作出自己的决定。,”,1.Outline the steps in the decision-making process.,2.Describe three different decision maker.,3.Identify the two types of decision problems and the two types of decisions that are used to solve them.,4.Differentiate the decision conditions of certainty,risk,and uncertainty.,5.1 The Decision-making Process,all organizational members make decisions,what is a Decision,A choice from two or more alternatives,Decision-Making Process:,Step 1 -Identifying a Problem,problem:,-,discrepancy between an existing and a desired state of affairs,-the pressure to act,-resources necessary to act.,Step 2-Identifying Decision Criteria,decision criteria,-what,s relevant in making a decision,Step 3-Allocating Weights to the Criteria,Step 4-Developing Alternatives,list the viable alternatives that could resolve the problem without evaluating them,Step 5-Analyzing Alternatives,each alternative is evaluated against the criteria,Step 6-Selecting an Alternative,choosing the best alternative from among those considered,Step 7-Implementing the Alternative,implementation,-conveying the decision to those affected by it and getting their commitment to it,Step 8-Evaluating Decision Effectiveness,5,2 The Manager As Decision Maker,Rationality,bounded rationality,and intuition,Rational Decision Making,decisions are consistent,value-maximizing choices within specified constraints,managers assumed to make rational decisions,Assumptions of Rationality,The problem is clear and unambiguous,A single and specific goal,All alternatives and consequences are know,Preferences are clear.,Preferences are constant and stable,No time or cost constraints exist.,Final choice will maximize payoff.,Bounded Rationality,behave rationally within the parameters of a,simplified decision-making process that is limited by an individual,s ability to process information,satisfice,-accept solutions that are,“,good enough,”,卡尼曼,Kahneman,和前景理论,两杯哈根达斯冰淇淋，一杯冰淇淋,A,有,7,盎司，装在,5,盎司的杯子里面，看上去快要溢出来了；另一杯冰淇淋,B,是,8,盎司，但是装在了,10,盎司的杯子里，所以看上去还没装满。你愿意为哪一份冰淇淋付更多的钱呢？,卡尼曼,Kahneman,和前景理论,一家家具店正在清仓大甩卖，有一套餐具，有,8,个菜碟、,8,个汤碗和,8,个点心碟，共,24,件，每件都是完好无损的，那么你愿意支付多少钱买这套餐具呢？,如果另外一套餐具有,40,件，其中,24,件和刚刚提到的完全相同，而且完好无损，另外这套餐具中还有,8,个杯子和,8,个茶托，其中,2,个杯子和,7,个茶托都已经破损了。你又愿意为这套餐具付多少钱呢？,卡尼曼,Kahneman,和前景理论,太平洋上有小岛遭受台风袭击，联合国决定给这个小岛以援助。假设这个小岛上有,1000,户居民，,90,居民的房屋都被台风摧毁了。如果你是联合国的官员，你认为联合国应该支援多少钱呢？,但假如这个岛上有,18000,户居民，其中有,10,居民的房子被摧毁了（你不知道前面一种情况），你又认为联合国应该支援多少钱呢？,今天晚上你打算去听一场音乐会。票价是,200,元，在你马上要出发的时候，你发现你把最近买的价值,200,元的电话卡弄丢了。你是否还会去听这场音乐会？,假设你昨天花了,200,元钱买了一张今天晚上的音乐会票子。在你马上要出发的时候，突然发现你把票子弄丢了。如果你想要听音乐会，就必须再花,200,元钱买张票，你是否还会去听？,卡尼曼,Kahneman,和前景理论,假定美国正在为预防一种罕见疾病的爆发做准备，预计这种疾病会使,600,人死亡。,现在有两种方案，采用,X,方案，可以救,200,人；,采用,Y,方案，有三分之一的可能救,600,人，三分之二的可能一个也救不了。,有两种方案，,X,方案会使,400,人死亡；,Y,方案有,1/3,的可能性无人死亡，有,2/3,的可能性,600,人全部死亡。,前景理论基本原理,大多数人在面临,获得,的时候是,风险规避,的,.,大多数人在面临,损失,的时候是,风险偏爱,的,.,人们,对损失更敏感,(,对比,获得,),原因,亏损部分价值曲线变化较之盈利部分更陡,人们对盈利和亏损的感受不一样,:,对损失带来的失望比同额的获益带来的快乐更强烈,持续时间更长,.,失败使人对失败更长记性,成功往往使人对成功麻木,前景理论的应用,如果你有几个好的消息要发布,应该把它们分开发布,如果你有几个坏消息要公布,应该把它们一起发布,.,如果你有一个大大的好消息和一个小小的坏消息,应该把这两个消息一起告诉别人,.,如果你有一个大大的坏消息和一个小小的好消息,应该分别公布这两个消息,.,从前有人将三百个金币埋在地下，并觉得自己很富有，所以很快乐。有一天他发现埋在地底的三百个金币被人偷走，因此很伤心。有一位智者路过发现此事，便随手拾起三百块石头埋回洞内，并叫那个人就当作三百个金币仍然存在，反正都不会用。那个人听后便假装自己仍拥有三百个金币，继续生活得很快乐。,Intuition,intuitive decision making,-subconscious process of making decisions on the basis of experience and accumulated judgment,does not rely on a systematic or thorough analysis of the problem,generally complements a rational analysis,5.3 Types of Problems and Decisions,Well-Structured Problems,-straightforward,familiar and easily defined,Programmed Decisions,-used to address structured problems,procedure,-series of interrelated sequential steps used to respond to a structured problem,rule,-explicit statement of what to do or not to do,policy,-guidelines or parameters for decision making,Poorly-Structured Problems,-new,unusual problems for which information is ambiguous or incomplete,Nonprogrammed Decisions,-used to address poorly-structured problems,Require a custom-made solution,more frequent among higher-level managers,few decisions in the real world are either fully programmed or nonprogrammed,What are the advantages of programmed decisions and nonprogrammed decisions?,萧规曹随,5.4 Decision-Making Conditions,certainty,risk and uncertainty,Certainty,-outcome of every alternative is known,idealistic rather than realistic,Ben Franklin In this world nothing is certain but death and taxes.,Risk,-able to estimate the probability of outcomes stemming from each alternative,Uncertainty,-,not certain about outcomes and unable to estimate probabilities,1,An organization breaks even when which of the following occurs?,a.when total cost equals 50 percent total revenue,