人民币应该升值？课件

,按一下以編輯母片標題樣式,按一下以編輯母片,第二層,第三層,第四層,第五層,*,Should RMB Appreciate?人民幣應該升值?,Shih-Hsin Economics Seminar,(世新經濟2003年學術研討會),October 4,2003,Erh-Cheng Hwa 華而誠,echwacc.shu.edu.tw,A Preamble,Lately,RMB,the Chinese currency,has certainly become one of the hottest subjects in international finance.For instance,G7 without implicating China by name called for a more flexible Asian currencies a couple of weeks ago.That the currency of a developing economy with an average income of merely US3,500 or so should command such an attention comes as a bit of a surprise.Why RMB all a sudden occupies the international spotlight?My speech will(I)analyze the background of the international call for an RMB appreciation,(II)answer the question:is RMB undervalued?And(III)ask if the revaluation will indeed solve the US deficit problem and for that matter restore global economic imbalance?And if not,what need to be done(conclusion).,I.Background:Global Economic Imbalance,The global economy is characterized by a significant structural imbalance with the US economy running a large current account deficit of over 5%of GDP in 2003 while Europe,Japan,and the rest of East Asia running significant current account surpluses.(Table 1),Table 1 current account balance,United States,Japan,European Union,China,Dynamic Asia,1990,-79.0,44.1,-37.6,12,6,1991,3.7,68.3,-86.0,13,6,1992,-48.5,112.6,-81.2,6,7,1993,-82.5,131.9,9.4,-12,6,1994,-118.2,130.4,10.9,7,1,1995,-105.8,111.1,51.4,2,-16,1996,-117.8,65.8,79.8,7,-7,1997,-128.4,96.8,110.7,37,1,1998,-203.8,119.0,72.6,31,58,1999,-292.9,114.8,14.9,21,77,2000,-410.3,119.5,-40.2,21,69,2001,-393.4,87.7,10.2,17,73,2002,-503.4,113.6,74.6,35,88,Projections 2003,-587.1,128.7,98.0,18,108,Projections 2004,-629.5,160.5,99.5,15,111,Note:Dynamic Asia includes Taiwan;Hong Kong;China;Indonesia;Malaysia;Philippines;Singapore and,Thailand,Source:OECD Economic Outlook NO.73 June 2003 Annex Table 50 and 52,This large and rising US current account deficit has triggered a US dollar depreciation since early 2002.This is a clear sign that US current account deficit appears to be no longer sustainable and is indeed of correction.Why an ever rising deficit is not sustainable?This is because eventually the rising debt service will have to come out of national output and start to hurt consumption and investment.Since the US has a negative net international investment position already one quarter of GDP,the day of reckoning would arrive,if the deficit continues.,(“Perspectives on the U.S.Current Account Deficit and Sustainability”,Catherine L.Mann,Journal of Economic Perspectives-Volume 16,November 3-Summer 2002-Page 131-152.),The global economic imbalance stems from a number of factors including foremost a much stronger economic growth in the US than most of her important trading partners in Europe and Asia.That is to say,US has been the only growth driver in the global economy,though lately there appears signs of life in Japan and Germany,the next two largest economies in the world.,Global trade imbalance logically calls for the corresponding adjustment in the exchange rates for closing the trade gap,even though exchange rate adjustments do not necessarily provide the ultimate cure.,The consequences of rigid exchange rates in the face of trade imbalance are the persistence in the imbalance and a growing misalignment in the exchange rates.,This escalates the risk of unexpected sharp adjustments in exchange rates and in this case the US dollar that could create havoc to global economic stability.,US dollar has indeed fallen and mostly against the euro,not so much with the currencies of East Asian surplus countries.,The reason is that East Asia central banks have intervened heavily in the foreign exchange markets to prevent their currencies from rising in value.As a result,East Asia central banks see a bulging in their foreign exchange reserves.,Background,:A Weak US Labor Market,The above presents an economic argument for the US dollar to depreciate,in particular,against Asian currencies from the viewpoint of global economic perspective.,However,the major impetus calling for an revaluation of RMB stems from the US that are echoed by the Japanese authorities and increasingly also by others such as South Korea and European capitals.,The US pressure stems from an unusually lackluster US job market in the third year of an economic recovery as well as a growing bilateral US-China trade deficit that exceeded US 100 billion(2002)and constituted one-fifth of overall US trade deficit.,An under-valued RMB is blamed to have contributed to the US trade deficit and job losses in the manufacturing sector.,The Bush administration faces the political pressure from manufacturing groups urging the US government take a tough stance against China that the administration would be hard to ignore in the light of the forthcoming US presidential election in late 2004.,In early September,Democratic senator from New York state Charles Schumer sponsored a draft reso