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单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,chapter 06 Global Economic Challenges,In this chapter,well cover:,Global Poverty,Climate Change,Oil Supply Shock,Debt Crisis,Global Poverty,Human Poverty Index(HPI),developed by,UNDP,aims to measure the deprivations arising out of human poverty.,Millennium development goals(MDGs),Global Poverty,In 1990-2021 the driving force behind the reduction of worldwide poverty was growth.,To keep poverty reduction going,growth would have to be maintained at something like its current rate.,Climate Change,The greenhouse effect,：,evident in the increase in ocean temperature,rise in sea level and melting down of icebergs.,The CFCs are used by richer countries and are of strictly industrial,anthropogenic origin.,Climate Change,The effects of global warming in the 21st century,：,Projected climate change is likely to affect millions of people who are already vulnerable.,Millions more people are projected to be at risk from coastal flooding due to sea level rise,Climate Change,Approximately 20-30 percent of plant and animal species assessed so far are likely to be at higher risk of extinction if increases in global average temperature exceed 1.5-2.5 degrees Celsius.,Climate Change,In the course of the current century,water supplies stored in glaciers and snow cover are projected to decline,reducing water availability in regions supplied by melt water from major mountain ranges,where more than one-sixth of the world population currently lives.,Climate Change,People living on small islands are particularly vulnerable to rising sea levels,extreme weather,and deteriorating coastal conditions associated with global warming.,Climate Change,The 1989 Montreal Accords on CFC emissions,The 1997 Kyoto Protocol,The 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change,The European Climate Change Program or ECCP,Oil Supply Shock,Energy crisis:oil notably.,OECD countries today use and import more energy than ever before,now joined by rapidly industrializing countries such as China,India,and Brazil.,oil will continue to be the principal energy resource for the foreseeable future.,Oil Supply Shock,The End of Cheap Oil and its Impact,In countries where oil prices are not subsidized,there are several basic issues:,Higher oil prices lead consumers to cut back on discretionary expenses.,Governments are also affected,Oil Supply Shock,In other countries which dont subsidize oil price:,Without oil exports to sell,it is very hard to have enough money to fund subsidies of food and oil.,Oil Supply Shock,The Risks of Oil Shock in 2021,Globally,the damage from price increases to date is likely to be modest.,But the impact on growth and inflation in individual countries will differ.,Oil Supply Shock,Americans are driving less,and they are buying more fuel-efficient cars.,Europe is more exposed.,Britain is relatively insulated.,In emerging economies the picture is even more disparate.,Debt Crisis,The global financial crisis of 2021 caused permanent damage to the industrial countries at the center of the crisis.,Three main forms of the crisis:high and rising public debts,fragile banks,and a huge liquidity overhang that will need to be eventually withdrawn.,Debt Crisis,The Euro in Crisis,Problematic sovereign debt in Greece and other vulnerable countries,and fragile European banks,which hold a large part of that debt.,Debt Crisis,Deeper Causes:,The secular loss of competitiveness associated with euro adoption in countries including,Greece,Ireland,Italy,Portugal,and Spain(GIIPS),.,The growth model in the GIIPS was inherently flawed:eventually,the domestic demand bubble burst.,Debt Crisis,Effects on Other Countries,1.the crisis will lower growth in Europe,a market toward which about a quarter of world exports are destined.,2.it will lead to further euro depreciation,sharply reducing profits from exports to Europe while also increasing competition from the continent.,Debt Crisis,3.by keeping policy rates low in Europe and potentially other industrialized countries as well,the crisis may encourage capital surges into emerging markets.,4.the crisis will add greatly to the volatility of financial markets and will lead to bouts of risk-aversion.,Debt Crisis,5.the crisis could deal a mortal blow to many fragile financial institutions.,6.a failure to contain the crisis will raise the alarm on sovereign debt in other industrial countries and,inevitably,in any exposed emerging market.,Debt Crisis,Remedies,Unless the nine most affected countries are prepared to break from the euro,they must resort to a well-known cocktail of fiscal consolidation designed to stabilize their,debt-to-GDP ratio,and structural reforms designed to boost productivity,competitiveness,and potential growth.,Debt Crisis,The U.S.Debt Crises,Attributable to pro-cyclical fiscal policy during the period preceding the financial crisis.,To tackle the debt difficulties,the US government,with the assistance of the EU and the IMF are taking measures to lesse
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