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,of,17,单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,2011/5/10,#,Tongji University,MBA 2010 Group 6,Tongji University MBA 2021 Group 6,道格拉斯微波炉案例分析,小组成员,分工,1,问题解决,方案,2,原始数据分析,微波炉销量,调查问卷数据,模型工具选取,平均值置信区间分析,推算预计销量,Excel,计算,原始数据,分析,微波炉的家庭拥有量,年 度,1979,1780,1981,1982,1983,1984,国内销量,110,000,125,000,150,000,180,000,220,000,265,000,总拥有量,458,000,583,000,733,000,913,000,1,133,000,1,398,000,家庭拥有比,6.10,%,7.50%,9.20%,11.20%,13.50%,16.20%,3,原始数据,分析,调查问卷数据,4,份,/,月,0,1,2,3,4,5,.,.,.,40,45,48,50,60,人数,(15),103,8,12,5,26,9,.,.,.,11,3,8,3,1,人数,(20),185,3,7,3,19,6,.,.,.,5,3,5,2,1,数据计算,分析,调查问卷数据,5,样本平均数计算,直接计算平均用户购买数,模型工具选取,平均值,置信区间分析,推算预计销量,Excel,计算,数据,计算,份,/,月,0,1,2,3,4,5,.,.,.,40,45,48,50,60,人数,(15),103,8,12,5,26,9,.,.,.,11,3,8,3,1,人数,(20),185,3,7,3,19,6,.,.,.,5,3,5,2,1,6,样本购买总数,2122,样本购买总数,3373,样本人数,312,样本人数,312,平均购买数,10.81,平均购买数,6.80,样本方差,179.95,样本方差,143.98,样本方差计算,平均值置信区间,计算,选取置信度,取置信度为,95%,数值取值,=0.05,n1=312 n2=312,S1=13.41 s2=12.00,置信区间,代入公式计算,d1=1.49,d2=1.34,选取分布模型,样本,n,数量较大,使用正态分布替代,t,分布,置信区间,d,d=t,/2,(n-1),S,/,n,7,大样本近似计算法,d=Z,/2,/,Z,/2,S,/,n,n,计算机计算,t,分布,d=t,/2,(n-1),S,/,n,预计年销量,1,51,203,874 67,629,511,64,178,730 86,037,347,81,948,558 108,236,750,102,072,351 134,816,033,126,668,098 167,301,825,156,294,794 206,432,437,预计年销量,2,30,033,667 44,726,025,38,230,629 56,932,909,48,066,983 71,581,171,59,870,608 89,159,084,74,297,260 110,643,201,91,674,819 136,521,796,预计销量,计算,平均购买区间,1,-d,，,+d,9.3212.31,X,X,平均购买区间,2,-d,，,+d,5.468.14,X,X,预计月销量,1,4,266,989 5,635,793,5,431,561 7,173,946,6,829,046 9,019,729,8,506,029 11,234,669,10,555,675 13,941,819,13,024,566 17,202,703,预计月销量,2,2,502,806 3,727,169,3,185,886 4,744,409,4,005,582 5,965,098,4,989,217 7,429,924,6,191,438 9,220,267,7,639,568 11,376,816,总拥有量,458,000,583,000,733,000,913,000,1,133,000,1,398,000,年 度,1979,1980,1981,1982,1983,1984,8,年度,12,个月,总结,分析,关键：通过样本平均值计算置信区间下整体平均值区间,获得市场上微波炉的保有量。,抽取样本，计算样本中平均每台微波炉的平均产品消费数量。,根据样本推算整个市场中产品的在某置信区间条件下，平均销售置信区间，计算整个市场年销售量的上下限。,分别计算不同的售价下的产品销售状况，与本钱等参数核算，计算出该产品是否盈利。,综合考虑其他各因素，决定是否投产。,进一步思考，如果把数据分成两类，分步计算会如何？,分类后产生两个置信度，一个是比例置信区间。,另外一个是平均购置数置信区间。,9,数据计算,分析,调查问卷数据,10,两步法计算,计算购买产品用户比例,计算这些用户的平均购买数,模型工具选取,比例置信区间分析,平均值,置信区间分析,推算预计销量,Excel,计算,原始数据,分析,调查问卷数据,份,/,月,0,1,2,3,4,5,.,.,.,40,45,48,50,60,人数,(15),103,8,12,5,26,9,.,.,.,11,3,8,3,1,人数,(20),185,3,7,3,19,6,.,.,.,5,3,5,2,1,购买,者在样本中所占的比例,第,15,题为,66.99%,第,20,题为,40.71%,11,数据,计算,-,两步法,份,/,月,1,2,3,4,5,.,.,.,40,45,48,50,60,人数,(15),8,12,5,26,9,.,.,.,11,3,8,3,1,人数,(20),3,7,3,19,6,.,.,.,5,3,5,2,1,样本购买总数,2122,样本购买总数,3373,样本人数,127,样本人数,209,平均购买数,16.14,平均购买数,16.71,样本方差,182.67,样本方差,188.53,样本方差计算,购买,者在样本中所占的比例,第,15,题为,66.99%,第,20,题为,40.71%,12,比例置信区间,计算,-,两步法,选取置信度,取置信度为,95%,数值取值,=0.05,n1=209 n2=127,Ps1=66.99%Ps2=40.71%,置信区间,查正态分布表,(x)=0.975,找到,Z,/2,=1.96,带入公式计算,d1=6.38%,d2=8.54%,选取分布模型,样本,n,数量较大,使用正态分布替代,t,分布,置信区间,d,d=Z,/2,Ps(1-Ps)/n,13,平均值置信区间,计算,-,两步法,选取置信度,取置信度为,95%,数值取值,=0.05,n1=209 n2=127,1,13.52 2,13.73,置信区间,代入公式计算,d1=1.83,d2=2.39,选取分布模型,样本,n,数量较大,使用正态分布替代,t,分布,置信区间,d,d=t,/2,(n-1),S,/,n,14,购买产品的微波炉数量,1,227,601 336,001,353,366 427,705,444,283 537,749,553,384 669,802,686,729 831,200,847,350 1,025,611,购买产品的微波炉数量,2,147,2966 225,563,187,496 287,125,235,737 361,000,293,626 449,649,364,380 557,998,449,605 688,510,预计月销量,1,3,971,467 6,038,326,5,055,383 7,686,341,6,356,082 9,663,959,7,916,920 12,037,100,9,824,612 14,937,606,12,122,513 18,431,398,预计月销量,2,2,109,367 4,307,513,2,685,067 5,483,145,3,375,908 6,893,902,4,204,916 8,586,811,5,218,149 10,655,923,6,438,634 13,148,261,预计年销量,1,47,657,605 72,459,916,60,664,594 92,236,094,76,272,980 115,967,507,95,003,043 144,445,203,117,895,342 179,251,276,145,470,157 221,176,774,预计年销量,2,25,312,399 51,690,160,32,220,805 65,797,736,40,510,892 82,726,828,50,458,996 103,041,738,62,647,790 127,871,072,77,263,611 157,779,134,购买比例区间,1,Ps-d,，,Ps+d,60.61%73.36%,购买比例区间,2,Ps-d,，,Ps+d,32.16%49.25%,平均购买区间,1,-d,，,+d,14.3117.97,X,X,平均购买区间,2,-d,，,+d,14.3219.10,X,X,预计销量,计算,-,两步法,总拥有量,458,000,583,000,733,000,913,000,1,133,000,1,398,000,年 度,1979,1980,1981,1982,1983,1984,年度,12,个月,15,预计月销量,1,3,971,467 6,038,326,5,055,383 7,686,341,6,356,082 9,663,959,7,916,920 12,037,100,9,824,612 14,937,606,12,122,513 18,431,398,比较分析,预计月销量,2,2,109,367 4,307,513,2,685,067 5,483,145,3,375,908 6,893,902,4,204,916 8,586,811,5,218,149 10,655,923,6,438,634 13,148,261,两步法计算,一步法计算,预计月销量,1,4,266,989 5,635,793,5,431,561 7,173,946,6,829,046 9,019,729,8,506,029 11,234,669,10,555,675 13,941,819,13,024,566 17,202,703,预计月销量,2,2,502,806 3,727,169,3,185,886 4,744,409,4,005,582 5,965,098,4,989,217 7,429,924,6,191,438 9,220,267,7,639,568 11,376,816,16,谢谢,聆听,！,17,
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