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Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,McGraw-Hill/Irwin,The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.,2001 All rights reserved.,1-,*,Financial Statement Analysisand Security Valuation,Stephen H.Penman,Prepared by,Peter D.Easton and Gregory A.Sommers,Fisher College of Business,The Ohio State University,With contributions by,Stephen H.Penman Columbia University,Luis Palencia University of Navarra,IESE Business School,Introduction to Investingand Valuation,Chapter 1,The Aim of the Course,To develop and apply technologies for valuing firms and for planning to generate value within the firm using financial statement analysis,Features of the approach:,A disciplined approach to valuation:minimizes ad hockery,Builds from first principles,Marries fundamental analysis and financial statement analysis,Stresses the development of technologies that can be used in practice:how can the analyst gain an edge?,Compares different technologies on a cost/benefit criterion,Adopts activist point of view to investing:the market may be inefficient,Integrates financial statement analysis with corporate finance,Exploits accounting as a system for measuring value added,Discovers good(and bad)accounting from a valuation perspective,What Will You LearnFrom the Course,How intrinsic values are calculated,How business plans are evaluated,What determines a firms value,The role of financial statements in determining firms values,How to pull apart the financial statements to get at the relevant information,How ratio analysis aids in valuation,The relevance of cash flow and accrual accounting information,How to calculate what the P/E ratio should be,How to calculate what the price-to-book ratio should be,How to do business forecasting,Users of Firms Financial Information(Demand Side),Equity Investors,Investment analysis,Management performance evaluation,Debt Investors,Probability of default,Determination of lending rates,Covenant violations,Management,Strategic planning,Investment in operations,Evaluation of subordinates,Employees,Security and remuneration,Investors and management are the primary users of financial statements,Litigants,Disputes over value in the firm,Customers,Security of supply,Governments,Policy making,Regulation,Taxation,Government contracting,Competitors,Investment Styles,Intuitive investing,Rely on intuition and hunches:no analysis,Passive investing,Accept market price as value:no analysis,Screening,Use a few pieces of information and no forecasting:minimal analysis,Fundamental investing,Discover the value in an investment through anticipations of payoffs,Analyze information,Forecast payoffs from information,Chapter 1,Page 3,Costs of Each Approach,Danger in intuitive approach:,Self deception;ignores ability to check intuition,Danger in passive approach:,Price is what you pay,value is what you get,Danger in screening,Ignores information about the future,Fundamental analysis,Requires work!,Prudence requires analysis:a defense against paying the wrong price(or selling at the wrong price),The Defensive Investor,Activism requires analysis:an opportunity to find mispriced investments,The Enterprising Investor,Chapter 1,Pages 4-5,Questions that Fundamental Investors Ask,Dell Computer traded at 76 times earnings(in 1998).Historically,P/E ratios have averaged about 12.Is Dells P/E ratio too high?,What growth in earnings is required to justify a P/E of 76?,Yahoo!had a market capitalization of$92 billion(in 1999).What future sales and profits does this imply?,Coca-Cola had a price-to-book ratio of 17(in 1999).Why is its market value so much more than its book value?,How are business plans and strategies translated into a valuation?,The Firm,Its Claimants,and the Capital Market,Chapter 1,Page 7,Figure 1.1,Value of the firm=Value of Assets,=Value of Debt+Value of Equity,Typically valuation of debt is a relatively easy task,Value-Based Management,Test,strategic ideas to see if they generate value,Develop strategic ideas and plans,Forecast payoffs:pro forma analysis,Use pro forma analysis to discover value creation,Applications:,Corporate strategy,Mergers&acquisitions,Buy outs&spinoffs,Restructurings,Capital budgeting,Manage,implemented strategies by examining decisions in terms of the value added,Reward,managers based on value added,Chapter 1,Page 9,Investing Within a Business:Inside Investors,Chapter 1,Page 10,Business Ideas(Strategy),Investment Funds:Value In,Apply Ideas with Funds,Value Generated:Value Out,The Process of Fundamental Analysis,A valuation model guides the process,Forecasting is at the heart of the process and a valuation model specifies what is to be forecasted(Step 3)and how a forecast is converted to a valuation(Step 4).What is to be forecasted(Step 3)dictates the information analysis(Step 2),Step 1-Knowing the Business,The Products,The Knowledge Base,The Competition,The Regulatory Constraints,Step 2-Analyzing Information,In Financial Statements,Outside
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