用未来思考今天课件

,Headline:(24 pt.)Arial bold,Text:16-pt.Arial Bold with Wingdings arrow bullet,1 line space,0.5 line before-paragraph spacing,Third-level bullet Arial En dash,with 1 line space,0 line before-paragraph spacing,Text:16 pt.Arial bold,sentence case,Second-level bullet Arial round,with 1 line space,0 line before-paragraph spacing,Third-level bullet Arial En dash,with 1 line space,0 line before-paragraph spacing,*,Copyright Yongan Futures Co.,Ltd 20,0,8,.All rights reserved.,用未来思考今天,Headline:(24 pt.)Arial bold,Text:16-pt.Arial Bold with Wingdings arrow bullet,1 line space,0.5 line before-paragraph spacing,Third-level bullet Arial En dash,with 1 line space,0 line before-paragraph spacing,Text:16 pt.Arial bold,sentence case,Second-level bullet Arial round,with 1 line space,0 line before-paragraph spacing,Third-level bullet Arial En dash,with 1 line space,0 line before-paragraph spacing,Divider Page Title(28 pt.)Arial bold,*,用未来思考今天,*,用未来思考今天,Divider Page Title(28 pt.)Arial bold,早报,宏观经济,豆类早报,目 录,一、国际,1,、欧元区,QE,之后，欧元兑人民币一度下降,2.3%,至,7.0460,，创,2001,年,7,月来最低水平，并创,2011,年,11,月以来的最大单日跌幅。欧元跌破,1.13,后加速下行，现报,1.1279,，创,2003,年,9,月以来最低。,2,、美国,1,月制造业采购经理指数,53.7,，为,2014,年,1,月份来最低，预期,54,，前值,53.9,。,3,、美国,NYMEX 3,月原油期货价格收跌,0.72,美元，跌幅,1.55%,，报,45.59,美元,/,桶。,4,、希腊大选投票结果打压欧元，欧元,/,美元走低至,1.1113,，继续刷新,11,年新低。美元指数走高至,95.36,，最高至,95.386,。,二、国内,1,、银监会：中国银行业金融机构,2014,年末不良贷款率,1.64%,；中国商业银行,2014,年末不良贷款率,1.29%,，第三季度数据为,1.16%,。单季度坏账增速,0.13%,为,2004,年以来最快。,截止去年,12,月末，中国银行业总资产规模同比增,13.6%,至,168.2,万亿元。,银行存款余额同比增长,9.6%,至,117.4,万亿元，贷款余额同比增长,13.3%,至,86.8,万亿元。,2,、中国,1,月汇丰制造业,PMI,初值,49.8,，预期,49.5,，前值,49.6,。,其中，产出指数初值升至,50.1,，前值,49.5,。,3,、海关：中国,12,月从俄罗斯进口,372,万吨原油，同比增长约,86%,。,12,月从沙特进口原油环比增长,13%,，此前连降两个月。,2014,年伊朗对华出口原油,2,750,万吨，同比增长,28%,；,12,月增长,19%,，达,257,万吨。,三、今日数据前瞻,1,、无,四、豆类早报,1,、隔夜,CBOT,豆类盘面：收盘,2,、美国大豆期货周五下跌，因美国大豆出口需求不断下降。,3,、海外买家转向关注南美作物，因阿根廷和巴西作物开始收割。,4,、豆粕期货小幅上涨，因一些需要近期供应的海外买家来不及等待南美供应，遂买入美国豆粕。,5,、,USDA,周五早上表示，在最新一周，出口销售大豆总计,11.5,万吨，低于,4070,万吨预估；,出口销售豆粕,29,万吨，高于预期；出口销售豆油,1.7,万吨，预估为,0.53,万吨。,CBOT,指数,收盘,涨跌,涨跌幅,(%),持仓量,增仓,美豆,3,972.6,-4.0,-0.41,30.4,万,1097,美豆粕,3,331.5,1.4,0.42,16.4,万,1413,美豆油,3,31.60,-0.37,-1.16,17,万,5704,国内现货价格与基差,交割地现货价和基差,交割地现货价和基差,豆粕,天津,-50,南通,日照,-30,连云港,-30,张家港,湛江,东莞,2015/1/23,2950,2920,2950,3050,2980,2830,2870,涨跌,-20,-40,0,0,-20,-70,0,M1505,收盘,-17,2681,2681,2681,2681,2681,2681,2681,基差,319,239,299,399,299,149,189,豆油,天津,连云港,-50,张家港,宁波,2015/1/23,5600,5700,5700,5850,涨跌,-50,-50,-50,-50,Y1505,收盘,-36,5556,5556,5556,5556,基差,44,194,144,294,豆一,绥化,-180,北安,-200,嫩江,-350,讷河,-350,产区均价,2015/1/23,4360,4240,4240,4200,4263,涨跌,0,0,0,0,-1,A1505,收盘,-15,4426,4426,4426,4426,基差,114,14,164,124,国内库存情况,日期,上月结转库存,今日港口库存,今日港口消耗,今日到港,目前本月到港,本月预期到港量,2015/01/13,475.3,543,（,+0.3,）,23.7,24,546.3,690,进口大豆,(,万吨）,豆粕（万吨）,豆粕库存数量,2015.1.21,豆粕未执行合同数量,2015.1.21,第,3,周,第,2,周,环比,%,同比,%,第,3,周,第,2,周,环比,%,同比,%,125.93,112.5,11.94,13.7,299.47,345.93,-13.43,-23.83,豆油：,96,万吨，减少,0.7,万吨。,进口大豆成本/压榨利润测算,2015/1/23,美湾,2,月,美湾,3,月,巴西,2,月,巴西,3,月,巴西,4,月,巴西,5,月,巴西,6,月,巴西,7,月,阿根廷,4,月,升贴水,80,77,102,78,64,64,64,64,38,增减,0,0,-10,0,0,0,0,0,0,海运费,34,34,25,26,27,27,27,27,31,增减,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,到岸成本,3175,3167,3168,3112,3098,3098,3108,3108,3068,增减,-17,-17,-4,-17,-17,-17,-20,-20,-20,压榨利润,-88,-80,-81,-24,-10,4,-6,-6,19,增减,38,38,24,38,38,32,36,36,41,国内现货压榨利润均值,谢谢！,